January 2025

[Cromagnum]

The cold would have to really overperform for Austin to get 2 inches of snow. I dont buy it.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro AIFS absolutely dumps the arctic mother-load all the way down to mexico , this pattern ahead has interesting potential to say the very least

[Cpv17]

12z Euro AIFS absolutely dumps the arctic mother-load all the way down to mexico , this pattern ahead has interesting potential to say the very least

The CPC already has a slight risk area over the central and northern plains for well below normal temps.

[sambucol]

18Z NAM

Is that a bit more south?

[sambucol]

12z Euro AIFS absolutely dumps the arctic mother-load all the way down to mexico , this pattern ahead has interesting potential to say the very least

POW Ponder mentioned this briefly in a video today.

[snowman65]

12z Euro AIFS absolutely dumps the arctic mother-load all the way down to mexico , this pattern ahead has interesting potential to say the very least

POW Ponder mentioned this briefly in a video today.

I keep up with POW every day!

[Stratton20]

sambucol yup, I love Pow Ponder, his videos are always very helpful

[tireman4]

18Z NAM

Is that a bit more south?

Yes, but the temperatures don't support it

[walsean1]

18Z NAM

Is that a bit more south?

Yes, but the temperatures don't support it

I’m subscribed to POW Ponder’s YouTube channel. He gives good information and is not hype

[Ptarmigan]

Either my eyes are going crazy or I just saw a couple of tiny (and I do mean tiny) sleet pellets drop. Would not surprise me if there is a little rain (mostly virga) turning into some sleet due to evaporative cooling with the onset of saturation.

I keep saying we could see some wintry precipitation.

[redneckweather]

It’s going to be too warm for any wintry weather down here. Man, I definitely should have taken a road trip to around the Sherman/Van Alstyne area just north of Dallas! A fairly short drive and looks like it will be a winter wonderland! My buddy lives in Sherman so looking forward to his videos and pictures later.

Models are still showing an arctic dump around the 20th give or take. The fun isn’t done yet.

[Cpv17]

It’s going to be too warm for any wintry weather down here. Man, I definitely should have taken a road trip to around the Sherman/Van Alstyne area just north of Dallas! A fairly short drive and looks like it will be a winter wonderland! My buddy lives in Sherman so looking forward to his videos and pictures later.

Models are still showing an arctic dump around the 20th give or take. The fun isn’t done yet.

Good thing is there looks to be a decent storm signal around the 20th as well.

[jasons2k]

This is one very powerful storm, no doubt about it. Some of the subtle atmospheric mechanics/movements I am seeing on radar and satellite are the types of things you typically only see with a strong cyclone or intense low pressure. Some folks up in North Texas are going to just get blasted. We are too, but with rain.

[tireman4]

124
FXUS64 KHGX 091222
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

The short term forecast remains largely soggy, though there
remains a non-zero chance of wintery precipitation over our
northernmost counties. Rain showers along the coast are progged to
spread inland later this morning as a coastal trough lifts up the
Texas coastal bend. During this mid/late morning period is where
we have our first "chance" of getting winter precipitation, mainly
around Houston County (and possibly Northern Madison as well).

Bufkit soundings at KUTS show temperatures of 3-4C aloft, sufficient
for complete melting. Meanwhile, current obs and short range
guidance suggests that much of the region will be above freezing
(>80% chance by 6am). However, forecast soundings further north in
Houston County are logically cooler, with the environmental wet
bulb temperature profiles in the areas showing weaker melting
aloft with a near-surface refreezing layer. These conditions may
allow for wintry precipitation to develop, mainly in the form of
sleet. However, rain will still be the dominant and most likely
precipitation type, and above-freezing conditions during the day
should prevent icing or accumulation (especially with warmer
ground temperatures). By the late morning/early afternoon, any
sleet/wintry precipitation should come to an end as the
temperatures/wet bulb temperatures rise well above freezing.

We then turn our attention towards the coast, as the effects of the
coastal trough start to ramp up. The tightening pressure gradient
is expected to bring strong winds along the coast, where sustained
winds may reach 25 mph or more. As a result, a Wind Advisory will
be in effect across the barrier islands from noon till early
Friday morning. Ample forcing will be in place across the region
from the coastal trough`s parent mid/upper level trough. This
adequate moisture should generally bring 1-2" of rainfall through
early Friday as this coastal lifts up through the Texas coast
tonight. However, convergence along the coast, and deep PWs near
1.7 - 1.9" should bring the highest totals in coastal areas,
ranging from 2-3.5 inches. HREF ensemble guidance suggests that
most areas should see under 4" of rainfall (<20% chance of
exceeding 4 inches). However, locally higher amounts remain
possible, as depicted in the HREF PMM/LPMM, which show very a tight
gradient in rainfall totals in these same areas. WPC has areas
along/south of US-59/I-10 under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for today. Ponding on roadways and minor street
flooding will be possible, especially along the coast/barrier
islands. The heavy rainfall threat should come to an end early
Friday morning as the coastal trough pushes east into coastal
Louisiana.

Northwesterly flow sets in behind the coastal trough, funneling
cooler and drier air into SE Texas. Precipitation is still expected
through Friday morning, so as temperatures cool to the north, wintry
precipitation once again becomes a concern across our northernmost
counties. The good news is that deterministic CAMS and HREF
ensembles show greater confidence that temperatures will keep
above freezing during this subsequent morning period (> 90%
chance). Above freezing dewpoints, PWs decreasing and a noticeable
dry layer in the lower levels bode less favorable for winter
precipitation as well. Will continue to monitor, but for now the
chance of any kind of wintry mix occuring look to be lower than
this morning`s chances.

Friday and the end of the week will predominately feature cold
and breezy conditions with highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s/30s. Be sure to dress appropriately for these cold conditions.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

A relatively uneventful long term period is in store following the
exit of the coastal low on Friday morning and subsequent clear out
of rainfall coverage by the late afternoon. A cool and dry
weekend remains on the cards with surface high pressure initially
in place to our west. Highs on Saturday will sit in the low 50s
with overnight lows remaining just above freezing for most of the
area (aside from the far northern zones, which look to reach
30-32). The development of a weak surface low over the Panhandle
on Sunday and subsequent shift to southerly surface winds over SE
TX will mean a slight increase in temperatures for Sunday, with
highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. A reinforcing cold
frontal boundary will push into the area by late Sunday, pushing
overnight lows into the 30s for most of the area yet again.

The mid/upper pattern does not look particularly progressive
through the middle of next week with global models showing the
next upper low remaining fairly stagnant near the Four Corners
region. Our next limited chance of precipitation arrives on
Tuesday as another weak coastal low develops near the TX Coastal
Bend. This should being a slight chance of rain to the coast, but
otherwise most associated showers/storms will remain offshore for
the time being. Cool conditions will prevail through Wednesday
with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Showers near the coast this morning should spread inland and
become widespread as a coastal trough lifts north along the Texas
coast. E/NE winds increase to around 10-20 knots later this
morning, gusting to 20-35 knots closer to the coast as the
pressure gradient tightens. IFR CIGS fill in over SE Texas during
the late morning/early afternoon. A strengthening LLJ will induce
vertical wind shear from KCXO south, bringing southeast/easterly
winds of 40-50 knots at 2000 ft through the afternoon and evening.
Rainfall continues overnight, slowly tapering off during the
early morning hours of Friday as the coast trough pushes east of
our area. Low but non-zero chance of some wintry precipitation
developing in proximity KCLL during the early morning hours of
Friday. Model guidance suggests that KCLL will likely be
unaffected, though it`ll be worth monitoring as we get closer.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are expected throughout the day today
and into early Friday as a low pressure system moves into the
coastal waters. Strong winds, reaching Gale Force at times over
the Gulf, will develop later today and peak in strength overnight.
Gusts to 40 knots will be possible at times. This will be
accompanied by widespread showers and storms, with some strong
storms and isolated waterspouts possible. Seas will also build to
10-14 feet overnight with occasionally higher wave heights.

The low should push off to the east later on Friday with
conditions improving slightly thereafter, though winds should
remain above Advisory criteria through Friday night. A brief
period of onshore winds redevelops on Saturday, but offshore winds
quickly return on Sunday and strengthen into next week. This will
likely require additional Small Craft Advisories.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 40 34 43 26 / 90 100 10 0
Houston (IAH) 44 36 45 31 / 90 100 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 41 48 36 / 90 100 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ436>439.

Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
for TXZ437>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Friday
for GMZ330-335-350.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for GMZ355-370-375.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for
GMZ355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady

[don]

It’s snowing really good here. And it’s accumulating fast due to the cold ground temps this week. I think we may pick up easily 2-3 inches. Which is what OUN is forecasting now.

[Brazoriatx979]

It’s snowing really good here. And it’s accumulating fast due to the cold ground temps this week. I think we may pick up easily 2-3 inches. Which is what OUN is forecasting now.

congrats Don! now that you got yours. Don't be greedy like these other north Texans and hog what's left for the remaining winter. it's our turn next. lol

[don]

LOL agreed it’s y’all turn next. We already have picked up about an inch now and we have hours of snow to go still.

[Stratton20]

Love seeing that snow! Hopefully se texas gets a shot later in the month

[Cromagnum]

The Metroplex got their snow, so maybe when it's someone else's turn they stop griping on 2K

[Brazoriatx979]

The Metroplex got their snow, so maybe when it's someone else's turn they stop griping on 2K

won't happen. those are some greedy people on 2k. they want it all lol