January 2025

[sambucol]

Thank you

[Stratton20]

Just for LOL’z , GFS has nothing

[biggerbyte]

Sorry, you guys. It's not happening. The temps will be too warm in this area. Not one model is hinting at even a remote possibility. As a matter of fact Dallas isn't going to see this giant snow storm that was being suggested. Ice, well that's a different story.

This is the train that couldn't/didn't. Better luck next time, and there will be a next time. Meanwhile, at this juncture I'd be happy to see just one flake of snow or sleet

[Cpv17]

Too many talk out of emotion instead of logic. It’s everywhere though, not just here. Gotta stay levelheaded.

[Stratton20]

I mean this was never our storm, the cold air was marginal at most, next time frame to watch maybe late next week as the CMC hints at another trough digging to our SW, we will have our shot

[tireman4]

13
FXUS64 KHGX 071953
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
153 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

Another cold night across SE Texas is on tap for tonight. Have opted
not to extend the Cold Weather Advisory as temperatures will (for
the most part) be above criteria for tonight into Wednesday morning.
I want to point out that while a Cold Weather Advisory may not be
extended, it is still going to be very cold and a few locations
could touch the 20-25F wind chill range briefly. Please continue
to remember to protect plants, pets, and pipes!

Wednesday we will still remain under the influence of a robust
surface high pressure and NE winds, leading to another cold day with
highs in the 40s area wide. A coastal trough will begin inching its
way northward from Deep South Texas, creating a strong pressure
gradient as it interacts with the surface high pressure currently in
place. This will create breezy conditions across the Barrier Islands
throughout the day Wednesday.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

Not a lot of changes to the forecast overall as models starting to
gain consistency with strong shortwave trough currently digging into
the Baja CA as it ejects across nrn Mexico mid week. Associated
surface low is still on track to develop over the wrn Gulf of Mexico
and skirt the Upper TX coast through Friday morning. Deep ascent
and increasing low level WAA ahead of this system will kick-start
moderate to heavy rainfall across much of Sern TX Thursday, a little
slower than yesterday`s forecast. This delay in rain onset will
likely allow temps to get above freezing for most of the area,
leading to cold rain. Exception continues to be across the extreme
northern periphery of our area...mainly Brazos valley into the Piney
Woods Thursday morning. However, even in this area, temps are a bit
warmer than the prior few forecast cycles. Forecast sounds look to
support mostly cold rain with possibility of some light freezing
rain or sleet near the onset of precipitation before the column
warms enough to support all rain.

The rainfall might be heavy at times Thursday afternoon and evening,
especially nearer the coast, with a general soaking of 1.5-3" of
rain across the region. Some higher totals are certainly in play,
with NBM 90th percentile values (realistic worse case) of 4.5-5.5"
Thursday into Friday morning mostly right along the coast or east of
the Bay. This is in line with WPC MRGL risk for excessive rainfall
on Day 3.

In the wake of the surface low, winds will pick up out of the north
and really get blowing over the marine area. What moderation we had
with temps mid week will quickly drop again Friday with highs in the
40s and wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s. It is not out of the
question we could see some brief change over from rain to light snow
in the far north Friday morning before the system pulls out, but
again the temperature profile might still be a bit too warm. NBM is
only giving about 10% chance or less currently.

After Friday, things quiet back down with a relatively pleasant
weekend on tap. In fact on Sunday we should see temps rebound back
into the 60s (mid 50s far north) for highs with sunny skies and
light winds.

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals through the 18Z TAF
period. Forecast mostly dealing with slight wind shifts and
increasing high clouds beginning during the overnight hours. Winds
will generally be out of the NE at around 10kts. GLS could
experience sustained winds of 10-15kts with brief gusts to around
25kts Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

Winds and seas will increase tonight into the late week ahead of a
developing low pressure system that will traverse our coastal waters
during the period. This will also bring an increase in rain
starting late Wednesday and not clearing until late Friday. Some of
these showers and thunderstorms will be quite heavy.

Northeasterly winds will support advisory criteria tonight and
tomorrow. Winds may strengthen to Gale during the day Thursday as
the low moves across our coastal waters. Advisories will likely be
required and there is the potential for a Gale Warning. The low is
expected to track east into the LA coastal waters Friday morning. In
its wake, expect strong northerly winds throughout the day. We will
need to keep an eye on the potential for low water levels once again
Friday. Winds and seas subside Friday night into Saturday and
onshore flow could return Sunday.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 29 44 33 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 49 34 46 37 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 40 49 43 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 PM CST this evening
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Evans

[tireman4]

It is not out of the
question we could see some brief change over from rain to light snow
in the far north Friday morning before the system pulls out, but
again the temperature profile might still be a bit too warm. NBM is
only giving about 10% chance or less currently.

[Stratton20]

No changes on noaas 6-10 8-14 day outlooks, cold and wet remain the dominant theme, i have a gut feeling our patience will be rewarded down the road lol

[Cromagnum]

Just going to be extra cold but wet rain here too. Looking at 34 and rain.

[kyzsl51]

No changes on noaas 6-10 8-14 day outlooks, cold and wet remain the dominant theme, i have a gut feeling our patience will be rewarded down the road lol

Remember last year when we are all waiting for the next arctic event and it just never happened? Lol

[Stratton20]

Last year was different, we havent seen a stretch of below normal temperatures that could potentially last all the way into week 2 or 3 of february ( not often we have winters with prolonged cold stretches like
this ) as well as above normal precipitation , ensembles are in strong agreement on a pattern that would definitely support a deep south winter storm later down the road, MJO supports a slow movement through 8-1-2,, not gonna say we are guaranteed to get snow/ ice the rest of the way, but id say our odds down the road definitely are improving

[Cromagnum]

All mention of wintry precipitation of any type dropped from both of my weather apps.

[kyzsl51]

Last year was different, we havent seen a stretch of below normal temperatures that could potentially last all the way into week 2 or 3 of february ( not often we have winters with prolonged cold stretches like
this ) as well as above normal precipitation , ensembles are in strong agreement on a pattern that would definitely support a deep south winter storm later down the road, MJO supports a slow movement through 8-1-2,, not gonna say we are guaranteed to get snow/ ice the rest of the way, but id say our odds down the road definitely are improving

Very well said

[biggerbyte]

Well the CMC looks interesting tonight.

Hmm

[snowman65]

looks like the ol warm nose is going to create problems in DFW area. High temps are rising a few degrees, moving the all-snow line.They dont need that.

[Cromagnum]

If it's just going to be ice and slush, Dallas can have it all. The drivers in Austin are bad enough on sunny days.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18767 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18767 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I like Tabor, hes definitely got the right idea though, you cant get much better agreement in the ebsembles like they currently are

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I like Tabor, hes definitely got the right idea though, you cant get much better agreement in the ebsembles like they currently are

We’ll probably see some wild operational runs over the next few days.

[Ptarmigan]

NAM 12z tries to bring in some snow across portions of se texas on the back edge of the system

Snow forecast is notoriously complex. I would not be surprised if we saw snow.