January 2025

[DoctorMu]

26°F low IMFY last night. It's still below freezing at 31°F.

[DoctorMu]

Yep. That Pacific warm nose. Just how thick it is will determine our fate in College Station.

...there is the potential for wintry precipitation, in particular over
areas in and near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings does
show a saturated profile above the warm nose for this region by
12Z and the NBM DESI snow/freezing rain output continues to show
a 05-20% probability as well.

[jasons2k]

Yep. That Pacific warm nose. Just how thick it is will determine our fate in College Station.

...there is the potential for wintry precipitation, in particular over
areas in and near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings does
show a saturated profile above the warm nose for this region by
12Z and the NBM DESI snow/freezing rain output continues to show
a 05-20% probability as well.

I’ve been mentioning this for a few days over on S2K.

That wind is brutal!! Feels like Lubbock out there. I’m not used to that anymore!

[Stratton20]

Extremely bitter cold entering the US on the 12z GFS, ensembles are continuing to get colder late month, the show is only beginning folks

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

The main aviation concern this afternoon will be winds as occasional
gusts from 25 to 30 knots are expected. The good news is that
winds should weaken by late this afternoon, resulting in speeds
from 6 to 10 knots at most terminals after sunset. Winds will
generally remain from the north through the entire period. VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

JM

[TxLady]

Kind of "refreshing" outside, this morning! While I have enjoyed the comfortable weather so far, this winter; I am hoping we might get just a little bit of "fun" stuff for the end of the week. Not looking for anything Grid threatening! Maybe, just a small snowman? Our kids (grandkids) are out of school every Friday, this year. So, some Friday Funday would be great! Happy New Year, everyone!

[Cpv17]

Extremely bitter cold entering the US on the 12z GFS, ensembles are continuing to get colder late month, the show is only beginning folks

Yeah, I saw some -50’s popping up at the end of the 12z in Wyoming and Montana.

[snowman65]

Extremely bitter cold entering the US on the 12z GFS, ensembles are continuing to get colder late month, the show is only beginning folks

Yeah, I saw some -50’s popping up at the end of the 12z in Wyoming and Montana.

Right now I'll just sat that one will probably end up similar to this one.

[Stratton20]

snowman65 nope, its a completely different 500 mb height setup than what we have now, its going to get much colder late month

[sambucol]

snowman65 nope, its a completely different 500 mb height setup than what we have now, its going to get much colder late month

Is this showing to enter Texas around the 18th? And will this possibly bring winter precipitation down to the upper Texas coast?

[Stratton20]

sambucol this would be beyond the 18th so its far out, but ensembles are in about as good of agreement as it gets, so confidence is definitely on the higher side of big cold spilling into the central US , how cold remains to be seen, as for wintry precipitation obviously cant answer that this far out, but the pattern the ensembles do have would easily support wintry precipitation all the way down to the gulf coast

[tireman4]

18Z NAM

[Cpv17]

sambucol this would be beyond the 18th so its far out, but ensembles are in about as good of agreement as it gets, so confidence is definitely on the higher side of big cold spilling into the central US , how cold remains to be seen, as for wintry precipitation obviously cant answer that this far out, but the pattern the ensembles do have would easily support wintry precipitation all the way down to the gulf coast

The ensembles are trying to dislodge Siberia into our source region in western Canada. I’m really curious what the AO and NAO will be like later this month.

[tireman4]

365
FXUS64 KHGX 062148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

A cold start to the work week with most locations reporting low
temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. Cold air advection continue
across the region as the surface high builds across the central
Plains. As of 2 PM this afternoon, temperatures were in the low to
mid 40s; however, light to moderate north-northwest winds are
keeping wind chills mainly in the 30s area-wide.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and light north winds will allow for
good radiational cooling; thus a another cold night with
temperatures at or below freezing is expected. Overnight lows in the
low 20s can be expected across our northern counties. A hard freeze
(temperatures below 24F or less)is possible across these counties.
Elsewhere, expect overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Wind
chills will drop in the upper teens and 20s can be expected through
early Tuesday morning. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued for the entire Southeast Texas, including the barrier islands
through 9AM CST.

Surface high will remain in control across the central CONUS by
Tuesday. However, mostly sunny skies and lighter winds (out of the
north-northeast) will keep daytime temperatures a few degrees warmer
than today. Highs will range in the mid 40s to low 50s. The streak
of cold nights continue through most of the week. Overnight lows in
the upper 20s to upper 30s can be anticipated Tuesday night in
Wednesday with wind chills mainly in the 20s.

JM


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

The extended forecast starts out quite interesting as a shortwave
trough digs into nrn Mexico with subsequent ascent overspreading TX
Wednesday and Thursday. This also will support surface low
development over the wrn Gulf of Mexico which will quickly shift
enewd across the north central Gulf through Friday. There remain
some differences between the global models, and between the global
ensemble members, on how fast this energy shifts across TX late this
week. This also impacts both the timing of ensuing rainfall over
sern TX, as well as how much warming we can see at the surface ahead
of this developing precipitation shield. Wednesday will moderate
some, although remain below normal, with increasing clouds. The
rain will start up late Wednesday night into Thursday as the surface
low deepens and moves off our coast. For most of sern TX, Thursday
will evolve to be a cold/wet day with near certain PoPs in the
afternoon. We could see 1-3" of rainfall Thu/Thu night for much of
the area, especially nearer the coast.

The more complex question remains across the far nrn counties along
the srn periphery of the freezing/frozen precipitation shield moving
across central TX Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the
area from Bryan/College station into Houston county could see some
freezing rain or possible snow/sleet late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as temperatures remain near or just below freezing
when the rain/precipitation develops. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out on the details/timing, with a few models a
bit colder and a few warmer. For now will stick with a wintery mix
across this area Wednesday night/early Thursday before temperatures
rise to near or above freezing Thursday, with cold rain elsewhere
over southeast TX. Probabilities from the NBM are around 20-25% of
seeing 0.01" of freezing rain around College Station, increasing to
45-50% around Crockett. Snowfall probabilities are quite a bit less
for those same areas, but non-zero. To the northwest of our area,
across parts of central/nrn TX, we could see a much greater
potential for snow and ice.

While we moderate a bit ahead of the low mid week, we will cool back
down again to end the week into the weekend behind it, with much of
sern TX seeing near or below freezing temps once again Friday night.
Fortunately this weekend, we should warm back into the 50s for highs
on Saturday and even some low 60s on Sunday.

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

The main aviation concern this afternoon will be winds as occasional
gusts from 25 to 30 knots are expected. The good news is that
winds should weaken by late this afternoon, resulting in speeds
from 6 to 10 knots at most terminals after sunset. Winds will
generally remain from the north through the entire period. VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

Not a lot of change this forecast cycle for the marine forecast with
Small Craft Advisories through midnight tonight. All in all,
conditions will be unsettled with elevated winds and waves off and
on through the rest of the week.

Tuesday could support caution flags with possible low water during
low tide cycles. However, winds will increase Wednesday and
Thursday as a low forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
system will shift off the LA coast late this week with an associated
cold front moving across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
This should also bring a return of strong offshore winds into the
weekend.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 25 47 29 40 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 29 49 34 43 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 36 50 40 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Evans

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 AO looks neutral on the GEFS/ EPS during that time, however both ensembles tank the EPO/ WPO,

[Stratton20]

Monster 1057 mb arctic high coming out of NW canada day 11-12 on the GFS

[Cpv17]

Monster 1057 mb arctic high coming out of NW canada day 11-12 on the GFS

Love seeing that! Hopefully the AO and NAO will cooperate.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 those both look neutral in that range on ensembles, but neutral isnt bad either, when you have the EPO/ WPO tanking, watch out, GFS just invades the entire country on that run

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 those both look neutral in that range on ensembles, but neutral isnt bad either, when you have the EPO/ WPO tanking, watch out, GFS just invades the entire country on that run

Well when it comes to cold weather, the EPO rules the roost. Still like seeing the AO and NAO negative though. Just gives me more confidence.

[biggerbyte]

I hate to be a Debby downer, but.....

There were indications this time that winter armageddon was coming and you see it was/is the firecracker with a wet fuse. To suggest that we know what's going happen beyond tomorrow has been proven time and again to be futile. Don't get your hopes up, folks.. it's always going to be"next time" in this area.