January 2025
still 4 days out.. you never know...
Gee wiz, I haven’t seen an ensemble run like that since Feb 2021 on the 18z GEFS for later this month.
Pretty much what I would expect. A mess. Cold upper and lower trop. with a warm sandwich in the middle.
I'm down to 38°F IMFY with a 21°F DP and both dropping. Serious advection. Overperforming as expected. 25°F by morning could happen here.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:41 pm Still think some surprise icing could hit parts of the viewing area
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Like I thought might happen. Coco to the northern areas.
Team #NeverSummer
Late Wednesday through Friday might surprise some around here. Temps seem to be trending down.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
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Yep even my weather apps show 12-15 hours of freezing rain and sleet now.
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5377
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CMC 00z on weather bell brings sleet/ minor icing as far south as I-10, it could be an extremely close call
Going to be a close call. If temps happen to be 2-3 degrees colder we could be having some big problems across our area.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
My wife is supposed to go to FW Wednesday. I told her it’s probably not happening.
Team #NeverSummer
Mine is suppose to go down to Pearland on Tuesday and come back to Georgetown on Thursday. I told her to pack extra clothes.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:52 pm My wife is supposed to go to FW Wednesday. I told her it’s probably not happening.
Mine is supposed to fly to Dallas late Wednesday & back late Thursday. I’ve also told her that she probably won’t be going, or she will be stuck for a day or 2 if she does.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:52 pm My wife is supposed to go to FW Wednesday. I told her it’s probably not happening.
Georgetown is going to be a mess. Enjoy it!Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:56 pmMine is suppose to go down to Pearland on Tuesday and come back to Georgetown on Thursday. I told her to pack extra clothes.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:52 pm My wife is supposed to go to FW Wednesday. I told her it’s probably not happening.
It is now below freezing here. Both GFS and CMC moved farther south with the frozen stuff.
Euro is sticking to its guns and retreating the wintry stuff to the northwest. Central Texas won't get anything either if that holds.
This week will make the top 5 winter busts for SE Tx. in my book.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
That’s ridiculous. It’s not even in the top 10. Most of you haven’t had wintry precip in your forecasts, at all, and the models lost it for most of you on Thursday.
Not anywhere close to a bust. A bust is having it in the forecast as we start to now cast the system when it reaches shore.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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574
FXUS64 KHGX 061121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
To summarize the short term forecast into one word: cold.
Temperatures this morning will be dropping into the mid 20 to low
30s by sunrise with wind chills in the teens and low 20s. These wind
chills are being fueled by winds across the area of 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-35 mph. The strongest of these winds will be found along
the coast where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9am with
the gusty winds gradually subsiding through the afternoon. A Cold
Weather Advisory also remain in effect across the area through 11am -
though we won`t be warming up all too much this afternoon so keep
your jacket near. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to
mid 40s.
With clear skies and lighter winds expected tonight, radiational
cooling will be in full effect with most of the region dropping into
mid to upper 20s. The Houston Metro may stay in the low 30s thanks
to the urban heat island effect. A hard freeze (less than 24
degrees) is likely for Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties, but
parts of Brazos, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, and Polk counties will
approach hard freezing conditions. Cold Weather Advisory conditions
are again expected tonight into Tuesday morning across the area as
wind chills again drop into the upper teens to mid 20s. Have decided
not to issue the Freeze Warning nor Cold Weather Advisory yet for
tonight as we wanna wait to issue until the current ones in effect
expire to avoid a confusing NPW. Though still chilly, Tuesday is
looking a bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight
lows will likely stay above freezing south of I-10 Tuesday night,
but areas to the north will again drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A coastal low will be develop and meander near the Lower TX Coast
on Wednesday and begin a gradual push of low level moisture
across Southeast TX. Although rain chances will remain low for the
inland portions, skies will be mostly cloudy, possibly overcast
for some locations. The cloud coverage will help keep us on the
cooler side of the temperature scale, with highs generally in the
low 40s for most inland portions and the mid to upper 40s for
areas near the coasts.
Rain chances will increase overnight Wednesday as the coastal low
tracks north to northeast towards the Mid TX Coast and an upper
level trough slowly moves east from the Four Corners region. The
low will move near the Upper TX Coast during the day Thursday as
the trough meanders over the Southern Plains, and will likely
continue to bring in several rounds of showers across the region
throughout the day. Rain and cloud coverage will result in colder
conditions with highs only rising into the upper 30s over areas
north of I-10, the upper to lower 40s along and south of I-10, and
the mid to upper 40s for much of the coastal areas. Additional
rain chances expected Thursday night as the low tracks northeast
into the LA coastal waters, the upper level trough shifts
eastward, and associated cold front moves across Southeast TX. The
front is expected to push off the coast sometime Friday morning.
Now, lets talk about the possibility of wintry weather across
Southeast TX. With rain chances increasing Wednesday night, there
is the potential for wintry precipitation, in particular over
areas in and near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings does
show a saturated profile above the warm nose for this region by
12Z and the NBM DESI snow/freezing rain output continues to show
a 05-20% probability as well. Conditions at this time look best
for freezing rain, however, can`t out-rule several folks seeing a
wintry mix. We have another shot at it Thursday night into Friday
morning, although the potential for wintry weather is slightly
less and shifted more northward.
Knowing exactly how much wintry precipitation we will receive is
still tricky. Regardless, be prepared for the potential of it,
especially during the overnight to mid morning hours. Remember to
dress in layers, cover or bring in sensitive plants, bring pets
indoors, insulate your pipes, and avoid commuting (if possible) if
icy roads/bridges are being reported.
A gradual warming trend is expected for the upcoming weekend, with
highs mainly in the 50s by Sunday.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty northerly winds
of 20-25kt will persist through this afternoon, then slowly
lowering to below 10kts by tonight and becoming northeasterly by
daybreak Tuesday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A Gale Warning will continue in effect through 9 AM this morning.
It will then be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory, which will be
in effect through around midnight tonight. Moderate to
occasionally strong northeast winds will persist through
Wednesday and may result in low water levels. Additional Caution
flags may be needed.
Winds will strengthen Wednesday night and turn east as a coastal
low develops near the Lower TX coast and tracks into the Upper TX
coast on Thursday. Advisories will likely be required. The
coastal low is expected to shift east into the LA waters Thursday
night as a cold front moves across Southeast TX. The front is
expected to push off the coast Friday morning, with strong
offshore winds expected in its wake. In general, expect the Gulf
waters to be under a Caution flag and/or Advisory for much of the
week along with several rounds of showers. Conditions to improve
during the upcoming weekend.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 25 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 45 29 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 36 49 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)
FXUS64 KHGX 061121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
To summarize the short term forecast into one word: cold.
Temperatures this morning will be dropping into the mid 20 to low
30s by sunrise with wind chills in the teens and low 20s. These wind
chills are being fueled by winds across the area of 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-35 mph. The strongest of these winds will be found along
the coast where a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 9am with
the gusty winds gradually subsiding through the afternoon. A Cold
Weather Advisory also remain in effect across the area through 11am -
though we won`t be warming up all too much this afternoon so keep
your jacket near. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to
mid 40s.
With clear skies and lighter winds expected tonight, radiational
cooling will be in full effect with most of the region dropping into
mid to upper 20s. The Houston Metro may stay in the low 30s thanks
to the urban heat island effect. A hard freeze (less than 24
degrees) is likely for Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties, but
parts of Brazos, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, and Polk counties will
approach hard freezing conditions. Cold Weather Advisory conditions
are again expected tonight into Tuesday morning across the area as
wind chills again drop into the upper teens to mid 20s. Have decided
not to issue the Freeze Warning nor Cold Weather Advisory yet for
tonight as we wanna wait to issue until the current ones in effect
expire to avoid a confusing NPW. Though still chilly, Tuesday is
looking a bit warmer with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight
lows will likely stay above freezing south of I-10 Tuesday night,
but areas to the north will again drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A coastal low will be develop and meander near the Lower TX Coast
on Wednesday and begin a gradual push of low level moisture
across Southeast TX. Although rain chances will remain low for the
inland portions, skies will be mostly cloudy, possibly overcast
for some locations. The cloud coverage will help keep us on the
cooler side of the temperature scale, with highs generally in the
low 40s for most inland portions and the mid to upper 40s for
areas near the coasts.
Rain chances will increase overnight Wednesday as the coastal low
tracks north to northeast towards the Mid TX Coast and an upper
level trough slowly moves east from the Four Corners region. The
low will move near the Upper TX Coast during the day Thursday as
the trough meanders over the Southern Plains, and will likely
continue to bring in several rounds of showers across the region
throughout the day. Rain and cloud coverage will result in colder
conditions with highs only rising into the upper 30s over areas
north of I-10, the upper to lower 40s along and south of I-10, and
the mid to upper 40s for much of the coastal areas. Additional
rain chances expected Thursday night as the low tracks northeast
into the LA coastal waters, the upper level trough shifts
eastward, and associated cold front moves across Southeast TX. The
front is expected to push off the coast sometime Friday morning.
Now, lets talk about the possibility of wintry weather across
Southeast TX. With rain chances increasing Wednesday night, there
is the potential for wintry precipitation, in particular over
areas in and near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings does
show a saturated profile above the warm nose for this region by
12Z and the NBM DESI snow/freezing rain output continues to show
a 05-20% probability as well. Conditions at this time look best
for freezing rain, however, can`t out-rule several folks seeing a
wintry mix. We have another shot at it Thursday night into Friday
morning, although the potential for wintry weather is slightly
less and shifted more northward.
Knowing exactly how much wintry precipitation we will receive is
still tricky. Regardless, be prepared for the potential of it,
especially during the overnight to mid morning hours. Remember to
dress in layers, cover or bring in sensitive plants, bring pets
indoors, insulate your pipes, and avoid commuting (if possible) if
icy roads/bridges are being reported.
A gradual warming trend is expected for the upcoming weekend, with
highs mainly in the 50s by Sunday.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty northerly winds
of 20-25kt will persist through this afternoon, then slowly
lowering to below 10kts by tonight and becoming northeasterly by
daybreak Tuesday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A Gale Warning will continue in effect through 9 AM this morning.
It will then be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory, which will be
in effect through around midnight tonight. Moderate to
occasionally strong northeast winds will persist through
Wednesday and may result in low water levels. Additional Caution
flags may be needed.
Winds will strengthen Wednesday night and turn east as a coastal
low develops near the Lower TX coast and tracks into the Upper TX
coast on Thursday. Advisories will likely be required. The
coastal low is expected to shift east into the LA waters Thursday
night as a cold front moves across Southeast TX. The front is
expected to push off the coast Friday morning, with strong
offshore winds expected in its wake. In general, expect the Gulf
waters to be under a Caution flag and/or Advisory for much of the
week along with several rounds of showers. Conditions to improve
during the upcoming weekend.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 25 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 45 29 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 36 49 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)