Hurricane Tomas Accelerating NNE From the Bahamas

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Discussion...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 11.1N 57.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Wow!

[srainhoutx]

Tomas looks to be a large cyclone...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 292343
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
745 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS STRONGER...SPECIAL
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SOON...

RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 PM AST AND WILL SUPERSEDE THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 57.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[texoz]

Tomas is not messing around. Looks like a CDO is forming.

If Tomas traverses the northern half of the Caribbean, I would not be surprised if he becomes the strongest November hurricane on record.

[srainhoutx]

18Z...

[sleetstorm]

What will Tomas do if and once he enters the Gulf of Mexico?

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS CAUSES DAMAGE ON BARBADOS...NOW HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AT NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

What will Tomas do if and once he enters the Gulf of Mexico?

Not much of a chance of Tomas entering the Gulf with the active frontal pattern ahead this week...

[srainhoutx]

AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU,

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A NOW CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...
85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Tomas has a large eye and is also a large Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT IN
THE NORTH QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE...AND THE CYCLONE NOW POSSESSES A CLOSED 25
N MI DIAMETER EYE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON SOME OF THE DAMAGE
REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON ST.
LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TOMAS REMAINS ON TRACK...
AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TOMAS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND PINCH OFF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 120
HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
RIDGE AND CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING TOMAS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND BEGIN TO MOVE POLEWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR
SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

WITH A CLOSED EYE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TOMAS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAK
WESTERLY 400-300 MB WINDS UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO INTERRUPT
THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 48-72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
RESUME STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...BUT THAT IS
BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO ERRONEOUS MODEL-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING TOMAS AS A RESULT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK BEING ABOUT 120 N MI NORTH OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 13.5N 61.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 63.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 14.5N 65.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 67.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 69.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 72.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...OBSERVATIONS FROM ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS
STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Structure of Tomas is becoming better organized this evening. We may well be on the way to an RI state for this Hurricane...

[Andrew]

Structure of Tomas is becoming better organized this evening. We may well be on the way to an RI state for this Hurricane...

With the track being as it, it looks to be a bad one for the islands.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311147
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TOMAS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks...