January 2025
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Brazoriatx979
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It's already starting lol my friend in bay city texted me this lol
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tireman4
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Remember, those might be computer generated forecasts. I know AI is all the rage, but some of these app generated forecasts can fluctuate widely with each model run. I would trust the NWS with a human component, as well as local outlets.Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 1:04 pm It's already starting lol my friend in bay city texted me this lol
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tireman4
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Wxman 57 from S2K. I have alluded to this, as well as Jason. I would hold off until Sunday. Still so many factors in play, it is really up in the air.
\wxman57 » Thu Jan 02, 2025 3:01 pm
I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.
Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.
\wxman57 » Thu Jan 02, 2025 3:01 pm
I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.
Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.
iPhone weather will swing back and forth depending on whatever the GFS does. Things should be more clear by Sunday.
Looking forward to seeing what all of you are saying on Sunday - in the meantime, wouldn't the temps of 44 and 48 as highs keep the snow/ice from sticking or even hanging around for any around of time for the kids to play in??
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Yeah I was explaining this to a 65 year old woman on NYE. She couldn’t understand why they would have apps if they weren’t accurate.
I showed her my screenshots of the weather app 6 days before 2021 storm, 4 days and 2 days. Then I showed her the actual temps.
She got it then.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Thu Jan 02, 2025 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Team #NeverSummer
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MontgomeryCoWx
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If it snows, the high temps won’t be anywhere close to that. They’ll be at least 10-15 degrees below that.
Models don’t handle temps well with Arctic air.
Team #NeverSummer
Thank you so much!MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 1:46 pmIf it snows, the high temps won’t be anywhere close to that. They’ll be at least 10-15 degrees below that.
Models don’t handle temps well with Arctic air.
I’ve been busy at work today. Just got on here for my first time since early this morning.
Golden Triangle area??
CMC, ICON, GFS, GEFS are in general agreement of wintry mischief in a week.
She's a bomb.
https://youtu.be/Go6FYVw6tTo?si=oCqJijKThMVokxRU
haha That's my favorite part.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 1:45 pmYeah I was explaining this to a 65 year old woman on NYE. She couldn’t understand why they would have apps if they weren’t accurate.
I showed her my screenshots of the weather app 6 days before 2021 storm, 4 days and 2 days. Then I showed her the actual temps.
She got it then.
Fantastic song.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 2:22 pmCMC, ICON, GFS, GEFS are in general agreement of wintry mischief in a week.
She's a bomb.
https://youtu.be/Go6FYVw6tTo?si=oCqJijKThMVokxRU
It would be nice to merge these models!
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The Euro has the storm too, but it’s significantly warmer than the other models so it’s all rain on the Euro.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah surface temps too warm, but then again global models are terrible with handeling cold air at the surface, EPS looks way better than the operational run
Once again, the Space City Weather duo is going to be very reticent to include much more mention of the possible snow storm in their write-ups.
A few friends have retorted with their synopsis from this morning; I've reminded them that while they were good with Harvey, I honestly cannot come up with any other major weather events they've nailed down. They missed the derecho (everyone did) and they were essentially making fun of anyone who thought Beryl had a chance to impact us here.
They are hype-free to a fault, honestly.
A few friends have retorted with their synopsis from this morning; I've reminded them that while they were good with Harvey, I honestly cannot come up with any other major weather events they've nailed down. They missed the derecho (everyone did) and they were essentially making fun of anyone who thought Beryl had a chance to impact us here.
They are hype-free to a fault, honestly.