January 2025

[sambucol]

GFS 6Z

that green should and probably will be something frozen.

I agree, and be ready for power outages.

[tireman4]

The 12Z ICON

[Brazoriatx979]

I was just fixing the post the icon.I'll take that all day everyday including sunday

[Brazoriatx979]

12z gfs....signals are getting better

[biggerbyte]

The outlook for today just obliterates winter weather for our area. It's nothing we are not used to. The excitement over the potential is difficult to ignore.
So, of course things can and will flip again. The issue is the trend towards a big nothing.

The problem is the moisture looks to stay down in Mexico. Any mechanism to create snow is too far south and hangs back leaving us cold but hugely disappointed.

If we continue to see these trends I'm personally not going to let myself get in that trap again. It sure would be.nice to see a big winter weather after the horrible year we just had..

On to tomorrow..

[walsean1]

I watched POW Ponder weather update
and he mentioned that once the first snowstorm system in the Midwest has laid its snowpack, the second shot of cold air that comes down Monday or Tuesday will be much colder than the models are depicted since it will travel over fresh laid ice and snowpack. This will cause our temperatures to be much colder that news stations are currently showing. I am afraid of a Freezing Rain
Storm which would knock out power although I purchased a whole home General Generator so we will see how that works out.

[tireman4]

GFS .025 12Z 500 mb Dam

[sambucol]

We have decided to go ahead and start preparing our properties for freezing temps, possible icy conditions, and power outages. We would rather do this now than wait and prepare at the last minute like we did for the 2021 event. Our schedules didn’t permit to prepare earlier then, but it does now.

[Brazoriatx979]

I'm surprised stratton or cpv isn't in here

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte that is wrong, if anything the trend is clearly more aggressive for winter weather across se texas

[Brazoriatx979]

biggerbyte that is wrong, if anything the trend is clearly more aggressive for winter weather across se texas

Tend to agree there

[tireman4]

CFSv2 Extended Range Temperature.. there is a thaw then another cool down...

[Cromagnum]

Got the Rosharon house winterized in case it gets really bad down there (still haven't been able to sell it). Headed back to Georgetown today to stock up on supplies since we seem to be in the current crosshairs.

[Pas_Bon]

Friend: “how would I prepare for something like this?”

Me: “think hurricane, but no plywood and add jackets.”

Lol

[tireman4]

Euro ..12 Z

[Stratton20]

Ensembles keep below normal temperatures locked in through the remainder of january , no big January thaw , in fact id argue late month- mid february could feature more chances for severe cold as a new alaskan - EPO ridge sets up shop

[christinac2016]

Mom would like to know when the worst day might be. Or what the timeline is. I told her she has a few days to prepare and get by the store.

[tireman4]

From Jeff

1-2-25
Colder conditions and below normal temperatures likely next week with potential light freezes (28-32) mid week…any significant cold appears unlikely at this time.
There continues to be an off and on chance of the possibility of some sort of winter precipitation mid to late next week, but confidence is low with many variables at play.
With the incoming front on Sunday there may also be a slight severe threat and this will need to be watched in the coming days.

[tireman4]

Mom would like to know when the worst day might be. Or what the timeline is. I told her she has a few days to prepare and get by the store.

I would say the day to really watch the models are Sunday. I am sticking to my guns on that one ( I know I am conservative on forecasting, I have been burned in school..lol). I know that will be in the 5 day window, but with winter events ( with the possibility, however the chances) it is really tricky. Just make sure to monitor here ( and pay attention to the pro and amateur mets here) and your local weather outlets ( National Weather Service) for updates.

[redneckweather]

Would anyone like to post the latest GFS model run.