January 2025

[biggerbyte]

Dang, gang. Can you hear the pin drop?

LOL

[Stratton20]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

[Cpv17]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

There we go!

[txsnowmaker]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

Yep. Half a foot of snow in Metro Houston. That would be unreal.

[sambucol]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

When? Trying not to get too excited.

[Stratton20]

The 8th

[sambucol]

Excellent! We are within 7 days so that’s a good thing.

[txsnowmaker]

The 8th

Looks to me like it starts the afternoon of the 8th but really gets going overnight into Thursday the morning of the 9th.

[jasons2k]

Agree with Tireman, we’ll know something Sunday. I just went through the models, told my wife “well, we’ll know something by Sunday” came here to say that, and then saw Tireman already took the words outta my mouth.

It could get interesting folks.

[txsnowmaker]

Agree with Tireman, we’ll know something Sunday. I just went through the models, told my wife “well, we’ll know something by Sunday” came here to say that, and then saw Tireman already took the words outta my mouth.

It could get interesting folks.

I remember an event around here where the local mets were predicting as much as half a foot of snow within a day or so of the event. Of course we ended up with barely a trace. It’s hard to forecast this kind of weather around here, but we rarely get signals for this kind of a snow event in Houston within 7 days or so, so I’m all in on the hype with this one given that it’s even a possibility in a major model.

[Ptarmigan]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

If that panned out, it would be one of the largest snow events in Southeast Texas in years.

[txsnowmaker]

00z GFS gives se texas 6-8 inches of snow!

If that panned out, it would be one of the largest snow events in Southeast Texas in years.

Since the late 1800s, for Houston at least.

[Cpv17]

One thing I noticed from the 18z GFS to the 0z GFS was that the 540 line was way further south on the 0z, which is why more of us get snow on this run.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro is better in houston, rain/snow mix with an inch- 1.5 inches in houston, better than 12z which has absolutely nothing st all

[Cpv17]

00z Euro is better in houston, rain/snow mix with an inch- 1.5 inches in houston, better than 12z which has absolutely nothing st all

Better than nothing.

[Brazoriatx979]

Lawd the waterfall on the 6z gfs lol

[snowman65]

any graphics yall want to share?

[tireman4]

663
FXUS64 KHGX 021130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 157 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

A coastal trough will be sliding its way up through the western
Gulf today bringing increased cloud cover to SE Texas. There will
be some isolated showers popping up south of I-10 starting by the
mid-morning, but the majority of the precipitation associated with
this disturbance will remain off the coast. Any inland shower
activity will end by this evening as the trough moves further to
the east away from our area. Friday will be pleasant across SE
Texas as ridging builds aloft.

Temperatures this afternoon will be fairly seasonal with highs in
the low to mid 60s, then rise into the mid to upper 60s (and some
spots hitting 70) on Friday thanks to sunny skies. Overnight lows
tonight and Friday night will be in the 40s north of Huntsville,
then low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Mid to upper level ridge will limit rain development on Saturday,
although some passing showers could be seen over the coastal
locations. Areas west of I-45 are expected to have warmer
temperatures, ranging between the upper 60s to mid 70s, while
areas east of I-45 may stay in the low to mid 60s.

On Sunday, an upper level trough will move into the Southern
Plains and an associated cold front will move across central TX in
the morning. WAA across Southeast TX will ramp up ahead of this
cold front, resulting in a more noticeable temperature change. The
highs on Sunday will warm up into the low to mid 70s for most
areas north of I-10, and into the mid to upper 70s over most areas
along and south of I-10. Throughout the day, we are expecting the
development of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
front and there`s a chance some storms could be strong to severe.
As of today, the front could pass through the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods during the early to mid afternoon hours and move off the
coast during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Once the
front pushes through, rain chances will decrease as a much drier
and cooler air mass filters across Southeast TX.

Temperatures will be dropping quick overnight with lows expected
to dip into the upper 20s over the northern Piney Woods region,
the low 30s for areas north of I-10, the mid to upper 30s for
areas near and south of I-10, and the upper 30s to low 40s along
the coasts. Here`s a fun fact for ya...around sunrise, many folks
may experience temperatures about 25 degrees cooler Sunday morning
compared to Saturday morning. To add to that, conditions will be
breezy overnight, making it feel about 10 degrees colder than what
the thermostat will register. CAA will continue on Monday with
highs peaking in the mid 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows will be
even colder Monday night into early Tuesday, with many folks
possibly seeing lows at or below freezing. This cooler weather
pattern is expected to persist into mid week. Thus, make sure you
make the proper preparations and remember to dress in layers,
bring in or cover sensitive plants, insulate pipes if needed, and
bring pets indoors.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 452 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this morning with SE winds of
6-9kt and SCT to BKN clouds at around 5000ft. There will be
isolated showers developing along the coast this afternoon, but
coverage will be limited so only have a PROB30 for the coast
(GLS). MVFR CIGs around 2000ft will begin to develop along the
coast this afternoon by around 20-22z, and then expand northwards
across the area through the evening. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate overnight with IFR to LIFR conditions due to both low
CIGs (400-700ft) and patchy, dense fog dropping visibility to a
mile or less by daybreak Friday. Conditions are expected to
improve through Friday morning with the fog dissipating and clouds
scattering out.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

There`s a chance of showers and isolated storms through the
upcoming weekend. Light to occasionally moderate east to
northeast winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet expected through Saturday
morning. Moderate onshore flow returns late Saturday morning and
strengthen Saturday night into Sunday morning as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the next cold front. The front is
expected to push off the coast sometime late afternoon or evening
on Sunday. Strong offshore winds and elevated seas will develop in
the wake of the front and will likely require Advisories Sunday
night into Monday. Moderate to strong northeast winds and wind
driven seas will persist into the mid week period and may likely
continue the issuance of Caution flags and/or Advisories. That
said, we will need to monitor the chance for low water levels
across the bays Sunday into mid week, in particular during the low
tide periods.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 48 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 62 52 69 51 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 57 65 58 / 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[tireman4]

GFS 6Z

[Brazoriatx979]

GFS 6Z

that green should and probably will be something frozen.