January 2025

[Brazoriatx979]

Man, that 6z GFS run is something else for areas N of I-10. And the cold just keeps pouring in from the Artic the entire run.

Nothing south of I-10?

[Cpv17]

Man, that 6z GFS run is something else for areas N of I-10. And the cold just keeps pouring in from the Artic the entire run.

Nothing south of I-10?

Nope, not really. Not that exact locations matter this far out anyway. Biggest thing is it has a lot of precipitation around with a good amount of cold air. It’s a good run overall for our area.

[Brazoriatx979]

Man, that 6z GFS run is something else for areas N of I-10. And the cold just keeps pouring in from the Artic the entire run.

Nothing south of I-10?

Nope, not really. Not that exact locations matter this far out anyway. Biggest thing is it has a lot of precipitation around with a good amount of cold air. It’s a good run overall for our area.

Guess that's all that matters this far out. That the cold is here and moisture is around

[Brazoriatx979]

Damn what happend over at 2k lol everyone is now doom and gloom

[cperk]

Damn what happend over at 2k lol everyone is now doom and gloom

That's what happen when you're impatient where the models are concerned.

[Brazoriatx979]

Bunch of cry babies man lol let's get closer to the event to actually see what happens

[tireman4]

Today's Weather....
454
FXUS64 KHGX 011126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025

This new year will be starting out pleasant with high pressure to
the northeast providing us with clear skies, light northeasterly
winds, and near seasonal temperatures. High temperatures this
afternoon will be in the upper 50s in the Piney Woods, and the low
60s for the rest of the region. There will be increasing clouds
tonight from south to north, but low temperatures should be fairly
similar to last night with most of the region staying in the low to
mid 40s (though could be a few degrees warmer near the coast where
cloud cover will be thickest keeping temperatures from dropping
below the low 50s). The high pressure slides to the East Coast on
Thursday allowing for a developing coastal trough to move its way up
the western Gulf. This system looks to stay far enough off the coast
to leave most of SE Texas dry on Thursday, but some isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible south of I-10 Thursday morning
through the evening. The coastal trough moves further to the east
Thursday night keeping the shower activity off the coast.
Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be pretty similar to today, but
a few degrees warmer at the coast thanks to southerly flow. Lows
Thursday night will be in the 40s north of I-10, and low to mid 50s
towards the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025

In the wake of a coastal trough, dry conditions are expected on
Friday with slightly warmer max temps across the area, ranging
from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Not a lot of change on
Saturday, except for a slight chance of showers offshore. A warm
front will move northward on Saturday night, producing a chance of
showers and min temps about ten degrees warmer as compared to
Friday night.

On Sunday, expecting scattered showers and storms across the area
as a mid/upper level trough approaches from the west and moves
across the area. Max temps will be above normal, likely reaching
75 to 80 degrees across the SW half of the area. A cold front will
end the chance of storms as it passes through Sunday/Sunday
night. There are some timing differences with this boundary on
Sunday with the ECMWF bringing it through during the afternoon,
and the GFS about 12 hrs slower. I am thinking the truth will
likely be between them. Much colder air will move into the area
behind this boundary. Freezing temps are likely by Tue morning
across the NW half of the area. A chilly day will be in store for
Tuesday with max temps only reaching the mid 40s for northern
areas and near 50 further south. Expecting another freeze Tuesday
night across the northern half of the area.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northeasterly
winds of 8-12kt will continue through the afternoon, lowering
through the night and turning southerly by Thursday morning.
Expect increasing mid level clouds through the night from south to
north at around 4000-5000ft.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025

Northeast winds will persist this week, becoming easterly on
Saturday. Caution flags will be in effect offshore today and winds
are likely to approach 20 knots. Onshore flow will become more
southerly and increase over the weekend as a warm front moves
inland. SCAs are likely Saturday night and Sunday with 20 knot
southerly winds and seas building to 6 to 8 feet. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms return on Sunday and end with a cold
front Sunday afternoon or night. Behind this strong front
northerly winds of 20 to 25 kts are expected to continue on
Monday and Tuesday.

Wood

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 41 62 45 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 62 46 61 49 / 0 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 60 55 64 54 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Wood

[tireman4]

From Wxman57 at S2K ( I agree wholeheartedly with him. The models will fluctuate wildly with many deterministic factors involved. There are so many moving parts to this upcoming set up. I know he said Sunday will be a good day to have the models zero in and of course, the watching of said models.)


It appears that my new wall height data went into the overnight model runs. Gone is the 36 hrs below freezing and heavy snow in Houston next Thu-Fri. In its place, lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

The issue appears to be how the models are handling that trof that moves into the Pac NW Sunday/Monday. Trend is to cut off a low and move it into the East Pacific instead of rotating it east across Texas late next week. That would greatly limit moisture and lifting across Texas. In addition, they're not bringing as much cold air south next week. From a big snow event to cold rain and maybe some sleet.

However, I have been saying that the models won't typically do very well with such patterns this far out. The next run could easily be cold again.

[Brazoriatx979]

From Wxman57 at S2K ( I agree wholeheartedly with him. The models will fluctuate wildly with many deterministic factors involved. There are so many moving parts to this upcoming set up. I know he said Sunday will be a good day to have the models zero in and of course, the watching of said models.)


It appears that my new wall height data went into the overnight model runs. Gone is the 36 hrs below freezing and heavy snow in Houston next Thu-Fri. In its place, lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

The issue appears to be how the models are handling that trof that moves into the Pac NW Sunday/Monday. Trend is to cut off a low and move it into the East Pacific instead of rotating it east across Texas late next week. That would greatly limit moisture and lifting across Texas. In addition, they're not bringing as much cold air south next week. From a big snow event to cold rain and maybe some sleet.

However, I have been saying that the models won't typically do very well with such patterns this far out. The next run could easily be cold again.

We are at the point where the models typically loose it and bring it back layer on..no worries it will all work out

[biggerbyte]

Well the outlook as of today is a huge mixed bag. I can see why some folks are upset. There is an added possibility that this system digs too far south and keeps all of the precipitation out in the gulf before it gives folks to our east all of the fun. The ensembles are not on board with this solution, however. It is way too early to serve up an outcome. 57 is spot on with his assessment.

[vci_guy2003]

Nice write up from Herzog:

Is the atmosphere over Texas following a similar script as December 1984 and January 1985?

This is nothing more than an observation. In Houston, Bush airport just recorded its third warmest December on record. Number two on that list is December 1984. January 1985 was a very cold month in the state of Texas with widespread snow. I remember it fondly growing up in San Antonio because in one night in mid January we received 13 inches of snow!

One of the methods we used to forecast the weather is called analog forecasting. It looks at past weather patterns to see how they stack up to the predicted weather pattern over the next week or two.

Guess what the number one “best fit” analog is for next week’s weather pattern? Mid January 1985.

That doesn’t mean we will have the exact same outcome here in the Lone Star state, but it tells me this is a pattern that has us in the game for wintry precipitation across a large part of Texas. Time will tell, and we still have about a week to sort all this out. I think we’ll have decent clarity by this weekend.

I’m telling my kids that there is a chance but there’s no way to know right now if we’ll actually get anything…so don’t get your hopes up too high. Easier said than done, right?

As a side note, another analog popping up is January 1997. This followed what is now Bush airport’s 11th warmest December. That is an analog we do not want to see come true, because it led to one of the worst ice storms on record in Southeast Texas. There are other analog years popping up where it was cold but nothing wintry at all happened, so again it’s too soon to know for sure how this all plays out. It will mostly hinge on the placement and path of an upper level low coming in from the west as I outlined in a previous post.

We’ll keep you posted!  Happy New Year!

[Brazoriatx979]

12z gfs

[Cpv17]

12z gfs

That’s what you want to see this far out. Good sign seeing that.

[Cpv17]

12z CMC is kinda similar to the GFS. Euro up next.

[Brazoriatx979]

12z cmc...that gulf low will be a key factor. As long as it's cold enough

[Cpv17]

12z cmc...that gulf low will be a key factor. As long as it's cold enough

Like I mentioned earlier, the closer that 540 line can get to us the better off we’ll be. Another thing is that globals often don’t see the true shallow nature of the Artic air and they usually come in a few degrees too warm.

[Brazoriatx979]

12z cmc...that gulf low will be a key factor. As long as it's cold enough

Like I mentioned earlier, the closer that 540 line can get to us the better off we’ll be. Another thing is that globals often don’t see the true shallow nature of the Artic air and they usually come in a few degrees too warm.

Usually takes an act of God to get that 540 line anywhere remotely close to here

[Cpv17]

12z cmc...that gulf low will be a key factor. As long as it's cold enough

Like I mentioned earlier, the closer that 540 line can get to us the better off we’ll be. Another thing is that globals often don’t see the true shallow nature of the Artic air and they usually come in a few degrees too warm.

Usually takes an act of God to get that 540 line anywhere remotely close to here

Yeah, it’s only snowed 3 times here that I can remember my entire life lol

[Stormlover2020]

More than likely will be freezing rain and sleet, hard to get snow down here

[Cpv17]

The last time it snowed at my house was in 2017. We didn’t even get it during 2021 lol and all 3 times it snowed here were in December.