January 2025

[kyzsl51]

Brazoriatx979 not really, even if the highest probability of hazardous temperatures is to our east, we are still going to get very cold, this cold is driven by the EPO and the tropospheric polar vortex, we are likely going to have very cold weather, im talking highs probably in the 30’s with lows in the 20’s, we dont need the bitter stuff, in fact that euro run shows just low 30’s and has heavy snow all across se texas

Exactly for us to get snow air temperatures really need to be around 30-33

[TexasBreeze]

The core of it has very low dew points and no driving mechanism for precip. Too dry!
Better around the perimeter!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, this is exactly the type of set up you want on the Euro and CMC for us to get heavy winter weather.

Need it to be this way this weekend before I get confident.

[vci_guy2003]

I remember a couple of years ago the Euro had snow for us 10 days out, then it disappeared for good lol

[Cpv17]

I remember a couple of years ago the Euro had snow for us 10 days out, then it disappeared for good lol

That’s why it’s best to go with the ensembles when it’s that far out vs the operational run.

[Stratton20]

GFS folded completely toward the Euro, now has the same shortwave as the euro and cmc, heavy snow in san antonio, some sleet north of houston on this run

[Brazoriatx979]

GFS folded completely toward the Euro, now has the same shortwave as the euro and cmc, heavy snow in san antonio, some sleet north of houston on this run

It was only a matter of time before the gfs fell in line with the king

[biggerbyte]

You guys know about model flip flops this far out...

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte while that is true, when all of the global models converge on the idea of a system being in play with the cold air, it does increase confidence that something could happen,

[Brazoriatx979]

Hmmm...

[snowman65]

things seem to be trending in the right direction... stay the course

[Cpv17]

Hmmm...

That’s already a pretty decent shift west from yesterday’s CPC outlook. They also have above normal precipitation for us too.

[Ptarmigan]

I remember a couple of years ago the Euro had snow for us 10 days out, then it disappeared for good lol

That is why I prefer seeing 7 days or less. I like to see consensus among forecast models.

[Cpv17]

Hey there 0z GFS!!

[Stratton20]

GFS and Euro are getting into really good agreement

[Cpv17]

GFS and Euro are getting into really good agreement

Those S/W’s are really digging.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 love that GFS run, though maybe want that coastal low to form a little further north, more precipitation in land, if it forms too far south then all the moisture could get drawn away from us, plenty of cold air to work with on that run though!

[Pas_Bon]

Well, folks, it looks like the chances of our miniature Winter Wonderland are on the rise. May the odds ever be in our favor (no ice storms, please, though).
Beggars CAN be choosers in our neck of the weather woods. We deserve it.

[Brazoriatx979]

Happy new years eve people! Here's looking forward to cold temps and maybe some frozen stuff!

[tireman4]

If I am the local NWS offices, I am very conservative right now. As we all know, it takes an almost perfect set up the receive Frozen P Type precipitation around the CWA. They ( and we) have more model runs to go before anything definite happens.