December 2024
This is some weird *** s*** going on with this fog basically every single night. I don’t get it. Another dense fog advisory, geez.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
030
FXUS64 KHGX 301158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
A fairly progressive weather pattern is progged to continue through
the short-term.
Widespread fog, dense at times, will continue across much of SE TX
through mid to late morning. Conditions will be improving in large
part to the increasing S/SW winds late this morning. This tighten-
ing gradient (in response to the deepening surface low moving over
the Southern Plains this afternoon) will also help to produce well
above normal high temperatures today. Max readings should run from
the mid to upper 70s across the Piney Woods...to around 80 for the
rest of the CWA.
With winds decreasing by this evening, cannot rule out a return of
some patchy for tonight. However, these lower visibilities will be
short-lived to some extent with the passage of the next cold front
during the overnight hours. Current timing has this line at/around
our northern CWA around midnight...then pushing off the coast just
before sunrise Tues morning. High pressure building south from the
Plains will make for a dry/cool and quiet last day of the year. As
for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to upp-
er 50s. Highs tomorrow should be in the 60s, with lows tomorrow in
the mid to upper 30s north and the lower to mid 40s central/coast.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures
behind Tuesday`s front will yield to increasing cloudiness
Thursday into the weekend in association to a developing coastal
trough off the mid/lower Tx coast. Isolated to scattered rain
chances will return to the forecast Thurs-Fri, mainly for
locations south of I-10.
A warm front is forecast to move inland Saturday as the next wx
system takes shape. A low pressure area should develop across the
TX/OK Panhandles and draw Gulf moisture back into the region in
addition to and bringing an upward tick to the temperatures. As
the low tracks eastward into Arkansas, its associated cold front
should move into, and through, Southeast Texas Sunday night.
Showers, and dependent on the atmospheric profile at the time,
maybe some thunderstorms will probably accompany the front.
It`s beyond the scope of this forecast, but next week is looking
to be on the cool-cold side with some Canadian air eventually
sinking into the region. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
IFR/VLIFR conditions prevailing across much of the CWA with all this
dense fog. Will be expecting improved/improving VIS/CIGs between 14-
16Z as S/SW winds begin to strengthen (ranging from 08-12kts/G 20kts
during the afternoon). Winds should weaken some around sunset (04-08
kts) with patchy fog expected to develop once again. Per the current
runs, will be expecting FROPA at CLL around midnight...pushing south
into the Gulf just before sunrise Tues morning. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Brief periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the bays during
the late night and early morning hours until the next cold front
passes off the coast Tuesday morning. North to northeast winds
will prevail behind the front into midweek. A coastal trough
should then develop off the mid and lower Texas coast. Winds will
veer to the east and chances for scattered showers will re-enter
the forecast Thursday and Friday. Look for a return of onshore
winds this weekend as a warm front moves inland. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 47 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 53 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 58 66 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ178-179-
199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436-437.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 301158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
A fairly progressive weather pattern is progged to continue through
the short-term.
Widespread fog, dense at times, will continue across much of SE TX
through mid to late morning. Conditions will be improving in large
part to the increasing S/SW winds late this morning. This tighten-
ing gradient (in response to the deepening surface low moving over
the Southern Plains this afternoon) will also help to produce well
above normal high temperatures today. Max readings should run from
the mid to upper 70s across the Piney Woods...to around 80 for the
rest of the CWA.
With winds decreasing by this evening, cannot rule out a return of
some patchy for tonight. However, these lower visibilities will be
short-lived to some extent with the passage of the next cold front
during the overnight hours. Current timing has this line at/around
our northern CWA around midnight...then pushing off the coast just
before sunrise Tues morning. High pressure building south from the
Plains will make for a dry/cool and quiet last day of the year. As
for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to upp-
er 50s. Highs tomorrow should be in the 60s, with lows tomorrow in
the mid to upper 30s north and the lower to mid 40s central/coast.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures
behind Tuesday`s front will yield to increasing cloudiness
Thursday into the weekend in association to a developing coastal
trough off the mid/lower Tx coast. Isolated to scattered rain
chances will return to the forecast Thurs-Fri, mainly for
locations south of I-10.
A warm front is forecast to move inland Saturday as the next wx
system takes shape. A low pressure area should develop across the
TX/OK Panhandles and draw Gulf moisture back into the region in
addition to and bringing an upward tick to the temperatures. As
the low tracks eastward into Arkansas, its associated cold front
should move into, and through, Southeast Texas Sunday night.
Showers, and dependent on the atmospheric profile at the time,
maybe some thunderstorms will probably accompany the front.
It`s beyond the scope of this forecast, but next week is looking
to be on the cool-cold side with some Canadian air eventually
sinking into the region. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
IFR/VLIFR conditions prevailing across much of the CWA with all this
dense fog. Will be expecting improved/improving VIS/CIGs between 14-
16Z as S/SW winds begin to strengthen (ranging from 08-12kts/G 20kts
during the afternoon). Winds should weaken some around sunset (04-08
kts) with patchy fog expected to develop once again. Per the current
runs, will be expecting FROPA at CLL around midnight...pushing south
into the Gulf just before sunrise Tues morning. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Brief periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the bays during
the late night and early morning hours until the next cold front
passes off the coast Tuesday morning. North to northeast winds
will prevail behind the front into midweek. A coastal trough
should then develop off the mid and lower Texas coast. Winds will
veer to the east and chances for scattered showers will re-enter
the forecast Thursday and Friday. Look for a return of onshore
winds this weekend as a warm front moves inland. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 47 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 53 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 58 66 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ178-179-
199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436-437.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Today is gutter trash weather.
Team #NeverSummer
High of 86 pegged for today and no real cold in site.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
That long-track tornado meant business.
GEPS, EPS Ensembles, Euro, CMC are seeing reinforcing shots of colder air through mid-January.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:08 pmYou’re not paying attention then… January will finish well below IMO.
Seasonable, sunny weather tomorrow through next Sunday and then below normal.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
418
FXUS64 KHGX 302315
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Observations at the 2pm hour are showing quite a few spots in the
low 80s, which is about ~15F above normal for this time of the
year. Both Hobby Airport and Bush Intercontinental Airports are at
81F as of 2pm...this is 2F shy of their record high temperatures
of 83F. College Station (Howdy Ags!) is currently at 79F and their
record high temperature is 81F...so we`ll need to monitor for
potential broken records at multiple locations today. I can promise
y`all though that this will be our last time in the 80s for the rest
of the year!
So why exactly are we seeing these well above normal and near record
temperatures? It`s the perfect combination of dry air (PW values
around 0.4"-0.6"...near the 25th percentile), southwesterly winds
aloft and at the surface promoting WAA, and 850mb temperatures near
their MAX percentile. All of that has led to high temperatures today
in the upper 70s to low 80s. On the plus side, this is going to be
short-lived as we have a cold front on the horizon! It`s going to
get a push from a weak-ish and subtle mid/upper level trough with
the parent surface low that`s currently in Kansas transitioning east-
northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley by Tuesday (New Year`s
Eve).
FROPA timing looks a tad bit earlier than the previous forecast by
about a couple of hours, so the front will be off of the coast well
before sunrise. This is important to note because there is a window
for patchy fog ahead of the front. Confidence is higher in fog
development along and south of I-10 generally after 10pm. Due to the
trend towards an earlier FROPA, the forecast lows for tonight have
been trended down a bit to reflect widespread mid to upper 40s
across the Brazos Valley and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Since dry air
will be in place ahead of the front, rain chances remain at zero.
With CAA prevailing on Tuesday, high temperatures will only be in
the 60s...maybe a few spots in the low 70s near Matagorda Bay.
Tuesday night will be a cold one though with low temperatures in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Those with outdoor plans to bring in the new
year on Tuesday night should definitely plan on bringing a jacket
along with them. You`ll still feel a northeasterly breeze during the
nighttime hours. Keep in mind that those low temperatures discussed
earlier will occur essentially right before sunrise on Wednesday
morning. It`ll still be cold enough for a jacket though as
temperatures at midnight will range from the low 40s to low 50s.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Surface high pressure to our north will be edging eastward on Wednesday
and will help to keep our area cool and quiet. As the high moves off
to the east, eyes will shift to the middle/lower coast where a coastal
trof will set up. This feature will bring increasing clouds to the area
along with a return of rain chances (chances should be peaking Thursday
through Friday evening). Over the weekend, a warm front moves inland
as the next system organizes. Showers (and maybe some thunderstorms)
could accompany this system before it swings our next cold front
through the area Sunday evening/night.
Temperatures will be on the cool side (mainly lows in the 40s/50s and
highs in the 60s) through Saturday night. Look for a warmup on Sunday,
then back down to cool to potentially colder temperatures heading on
into next week.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Gusty afternoon winds beginning to slacken this evening. Remain
southwesterly for now, but as a front draws nearer tonight, look
for winds to become more variable, then veer northerly when the
front passes. Timing is generally for FROPA at CLL around 06Z,
Houston terminals around 08/09Z, and GLS/the coast around 11Z.
Before the front arrives, expect fog to crop up from CXO coastward
overnight. Have MVFR VSBYs prevailing, with TEMPOs for IFR in the
couple hours before FROPA at most of these sites.
Front will be dry, with barely even much in the way of cloud
development. Key aviation concern will be shift in winds with
passage, then emergence of gusty north winds mid-late morning.
There`s also some potential for LLWS, particularly just before
gusts come up, or if gusts somehow fail to make it to surface. Not
expected to be likely/long-lived enough for explicit mention in
this TAF, but something future shifts will be mindful of.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Went ahead and issued the Caution flags for the current conditions.
Winds should come down tonight, but pick up once again tomorrow after
the next cold front moves on through. For that reason, have kept
the flags up, even though winds will be well below criteria levels
at times. Brief periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the
bays during the late night and early morning hours until the front
passes off the coast in the morning. North to northeast winds will
prevail behind the front into midweek, and caution or advisory
flags will likely be needed. A coastal trough should then develop
off the mid and lower Texas coast. Winds will veer to the east and
chances for scattered showers will re-enter the forecast, mainly
Thursday and Friday. Look for a return of onshore winds that will
be strengthening this weekend as a warm front moves inland.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 64 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 67 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 67 51 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 302315
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Observations at the 2pm hour are showing quite a few spots in the
low 80s, which is about ~15F above normal for this time of the
year. Both Hobby Airport and Bush Intercontinental Airports are at
81F as of 2pm...this is 2F shy of their record high temperatures
of 83F. College Station (Howdy Ags!) is currently at 79F and their
record high temperature is 81F...so we`ll need to monitor for
potential broken records at multiple locations today. I can promise
y`all though that this will be our last time in the 80s for the rest
of the year!
So why exactly are we seeing these well above normal and near record
temperatures? It`s the perfect combination of dry air (PW values
around 0.4"-0.6"...near the 25th percentile), southwesterly winds
aloft and at the surface promoting WAA, and 850mb temperatures near
their MAX percentile. All of that has led to high temperatures today
in the upper 70s to low 80s. On the plus side, this is going to be
short-lived as we have a cold front on the horizon! It`s going to
get a push from a weak-ish and subtle mid/upper level trough with
the parent surface low that`s currently in Kansas transitioning east-
northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley by Tuesday (New Year`s
Eve).
FROPA timing looks a tad bit earlier than the previous forecast by
about a couple of hours, so the front will be off of the coast well
before sunrise. This is important to note because there is a window
for patchy fog ahead of the front. Confidence is higher in fog
development along and south of I-10 generally after 10pm. Due to the
trend towards an earlier FROPA, the forecast lows for tonight have
been trended down a bit to reflect widespread mid to upper 40s
across the Brazos Valley and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Since dry air
will be in place ahead of the front, rain chances remain at zero.
With CAA prevailing on Tuesday, high temperatures will only be in
the 60s...maybe a few spots in the low 70s near Matagorda Bay.
Tuesday night will be a cold one though with low temperatures in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Those with outdoor plans to bring in the new
year on Tuesday night should definitely plan on bringing a jacket
along with them. You`ll still feel a northeasterly breeze during the
nighttime hours. Keep in mind that those low temperatures discussed
earlier will occur essentially right before sunrise on Wednesday
morning. It`ll still be cold enough for a jacket though as
temperatures at midnight will range from the low 40s to low 50s.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Surface high pressure to our north will be edging eastward on Wednesday
and will help to keep our area cool and quiet. As the high moves off
to the east, eyes will shift to the middle/lower coast where a coastal
trof will set up. This feature will bring increasing clouds to the area
along with a return of rain chances (chances should be peaking Thursday
through Friday evening). Over the weekend, a warm front moves inland
as the next system organizes. Showers (and maybe some thunderstorms)
could accompany this system before it swings our next cold front
through the area Sunday evening/night.
Temperatures will be on the cool side (mainly lows in the 40s/50s and
highs in the 60s) through Saturday night. Look for a warmup on Sunday,
then back down to cool to potentially colder temperatures heading on
into next week.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Gusty afternoon winds beginning to slacken this evening. Remain
southwesterly for now, but as a front draws nearer tonight, look
for winds to become more variable, then veer northerly when the
front passes. Timing is generally for FROPA at CLL around 06Z,
Houston terminals around 08/09Z, and GLS/the coast around 11Z.
Before the front arrives, expect fog to crop up from CXO coastward
overnight. Have MVFR VSBYs prevailing, with TEMPOs for IFR in the
couple hours before FROPA at most of these sites.
Front will be dry, with barely even much in the way of cloud
development. Key aviation concern will be shift in winds with
passage, then emergence of gusty north winds mid-late morning.
There`s also some potential for LLWS, particularly just before
gusts come up, or if gusts somehow fail to make it to surface. Not
expected to be likely/long-lived enough for explicit mention in
this TAF, but something future shifts will be mindful of.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Went ahead and issued the Caution flags for the current conditions.
Winds should come down tonight, but pick up once again tomorrow after
the next cold front moves on through. For that reason, have kept
the flags up, even though winds will be well below criteria levels
at times. Brief periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the
bays during the late night and early morning hours until the front
passes off the coast in the morning. North to northeast winds will
prevail behind the front into midweek, and caution or advisory
flags will likely be needed. A coastal trough should then develop
off the mid and lower Texas coast. Winds will veer to the east and
chances for scattered showers will re-enter the forecast, mainly
Thursday and Friday. Look for a return of onshore winds that will
be strengthening this weekend as a warm front moves inland.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 64 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 67 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 67 51 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...42
Larry Cosgrove and POW Ponder think we’ll have a January thaw the third week of the month. I guess we’ll see.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 5:07 pmGEPS, EPS Ensembles, Euro, CMC are seeing reinforcing shots of colder air through mid-January.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:08 pmYou’re not paying attention then… January will finish well below IMO.
Seasonable, sunny weather tomorrow through next Sunday and then below normal.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Likely a westward relaxation before a -PNA, -EPO to usher in FebruaryCpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:05 pmLarry Cosgrove and POW Ponder think we’ll have a January thaw the third week of the month. I guess we’ll see.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 5:07 pmGEPS, EPS Ensembles, Euro, CMC are seeing reinforcing shots of colder air through mid-January.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:08 pm
You’re not paying attention then… January will finish well below IMO.
Seasonable, sunny weather tomorrow through next Sunday and then below normal.
Team #NeverSummer
CLL ties the record for Dec. 30 at 81°F at the airport.
60.83 inches of rain for the year IMFY. 50+ inches through July. Under 5 inches of rain in August - November.
5.63 inches IMFY for December. The May Derecho started just south of College Station and swooped through Houston. Tornadoes on Saturday. A crazy weather year.
60.83 inches of rain for the year IMFY. 50+ inches through July. Under 5 inches of rain in August - November.
5.63 inches IMFY for December. The May Derecho started just south of College Station and swooped through Houston. Tornadoes on Saturday. A crazy weather year.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
999
FXUS64 KHGX 311155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Widespread dense fog has developed across much of SE TX overnight as
the next cold front is running a bit behind schedule. As per current
obs/trends, this boundary should reach the coast by mid morning. And
so, this means that the bulk of this (hashtag)stupid fog will remain
in place until FROPA. Cooler/drier conditions will prevail across SE
TX this afternoon in the wake of the front...with highs in the lower
to mid 60s. Clear skies/low dewpoints will give us lows ranging from
the upper 30s across our northern tier of counties, lower to mid 40s
elsewhere and the lower 50s right along the coast.
Surface high pressure building into the state behind this front will
be shifting quickly east tonight/tomorrow morning...given the rather
progressive large scale pattern of late. This should bring a more NE
to E flow by tomorrow as the overall weather here remains cool/dry.
Highs for the start of the new year will be in the upper 50s to low-
er 60s. We could see some changes by tomorrow night as a coastal low
(or trough) begins to develop just around the lower/middle TX coast.
This could increase cloud cover here, but the best rain chances will
likely remain over the Gulf/SW counties/near Matagorda Bay. Weaken-
ing CAA and increasing clouds will allow for slightly warmer lows as
temperatures range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.
Also of note, this will be my last forecast and day here at WFO HGX.
After 33 years of federal service, I will be retiring. Not sure how
common this is, but I will have worked the entirety of my career as
a meteorologist here in my hometown of Houston, TX. I`m so grateful
for all the friends, colleagues and family that I have been able to
make along the way...both here and at other NWS offices. It has tru-
ly been an honor to serve SE TX all these years.
So, good golf, good tennis, or whatever makes you happy!
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Rain chances return on Thursday as a coastal trough slides up the
western Gulf bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Areas closest to the coast will have the best
chance for seeing these showers, but there is a slight chance all
the way up to the Piney Woods. These rain chances won`t be lasting
long as a weak cold front slides through the region late Thursday
night into Friday morning ushering in drier conditions. These
drier conditions will persist through Saturday, but moisture
returns by Sunday as a warm front slides up from the south. An
approaching upper level low from the west will be sliding through
late Sunday into Monday, tapping into this moisture return
bringing us our next chance at showers and storms.
High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s (cooler temperatures across the Piney Woods, warmer
at the coast), then raise back into the 70s on Sunday following
the warm front. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern
with lows generally in the 40 through Friday night, then rise into
the 50s Saturday night. We are expecting a cool down after the
passage of the system Sunday into Monday with highs down into the
50s and lows down into the 30s for much of the area by Monday
night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
With the cold front making better progress south across the CWA at
this time, we should be dealing with improving CIGS/VIS at termin-
als still dealing with fog/low clouds closer to the coast. As cool
dry air continues to filter down into the region behind the front,
VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA by this afternoon along
with gusty NW/N winds (7-11kts/G20kts). Winds should decrease this
evening as high pressure moves into the state. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the bays and near
short waters through the predawn hours this morning before a cold
front passes off the coast ushering in drier conditions. North to
northeast winds will prevail behind the front into midweek. Small
craft should exercise caution today as the winds will approach 20
knots at times. Combination of offshore winds and low astronomical
tides will lead to low tides this morning to around -0.5 MLLW,
which is borderline needing a Low Water Advisory. If trends of the
actual tides outpaces the expected low tides, then we may end up
issuing one later this morning.
A coastal trough will be developing off the mid and lower Texas
coast over the next few days. Winds will veer to the east with
scattered showers Thursday into Friday. Look for a return of
onshore winds this weekend as a warm front moves inland.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 39 60 45 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 67 44 61 48 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 61 57 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ210-
214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 311155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Widespread dense fog has developed across much of SE TX overnight as
the next cold front is running a bit behind schedule. As per current
obs/trends, this boundary should reach the coast by mid morning. And
so, this means that the bulk of this (hashtag)stupid fog will remain
in place until FROPA. Cooler/drier conditions will prevail across SE
TX this afternoon in the wake of the front...with highs in the lower
to mid 60s. Clear skies/low dewpoints will give us lows ranging from
the upper 30s across our northern tier of counties, lower to mid 40s
elsewhere and the lower 50s right along the coast.
Surface high pressure building into the state behind this front will
be shifting quickly east tonight/tomorrow morning...given the rather
progressive large scale pattern of late. This should bring a more NE
to E flow by tomorrow as the overall weather here remains cool/dry.
Highs for the start of the new year will be in the upper 50s to low-
er 60s. We could see some changes by tomorrow night as a coastal low
(or trough) begins to develop just around the lower/middle TX coast.
This could increase cloud cover here, but the best rain chances will
likely remain over the Gulf/SW counties/near Matagorda Bay. Weaken-
ing CAA and increasing clouds will allow for slightly warmer lows as
temperatures range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.
Also of note, this will be my last forecast and day here at WFO HGX.
After 33 years of federal service, I will be retiring. Not sure how
common this is, but I will have worked the entirety of my career as
a meteorologist here in my hometown of Houston, TX. I`m so grateful
for all the friends, colleagues and family that I have been able to
make along the way...both here and at other NWS offices. It has tru-
ly been an honor to serve SE TX all these years.
So, good golf, good tennis, or whatever makes you happy!
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Rain chances return on Thursday as a coastal trough slides up the
western Gulf bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Areas closest to the coast will have the best
chance for seeing these showers, but there is a slight chance all
the way up to the Piney Woods. These rain chances won`t be lasting
long as a weak cold front slides through the region late Thursday
night into Friday morning ushering in drier conditions. These
drier conditions will persist through Saturday, but moisture
returns by Sunday as a warm front slides up from the south. An
approaching upper level low from the west will be sliding through
late Sunday into Monday, tapping into this moisture return
bringing us our next chance at showers and storms.
High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s (cooler temperatures across the Piney Woods, warmer
at the coast), then raise back into the 70s on Sunday following
the warm front. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern
with lows generally in the 40 through Friday night, then rise into
the 50s Saturday night. We are expecting a cool down after the
passage of the system Sunday into Monday with highs down into the
50s and lows down into the 30s for much of the area by Monday
night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
With the cold front making better progress south across the CWA at
this time, we should be dealing with improving CIGS/VIS at termin-
als still dealing with fog/low clouds closer to the coast. As cool
dry air continues to filter down into the region behind the front,
VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA by this afternoon along
with gusty NW/N winds (7-11kts/G20kts). Winds should decrease this
evening as high pressure moves into the state. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Periods of patchy dense fog are possible in the bays and near
short waters through the predawn hours this morning before a cold
front passes off the coast ushering in drier conditions. North to
northeast winds will prevail behind the front into midweek. Small
craft should exercise caution today as the winds will approach 20
knots at times. Combination of offshore winds and low astronomical
tides will lead to low tides this morning to around -0.5 MLLW,
which is borderline needing a Low Water Advisory. If trends of the
actual tides outpaces the expected low tides, then we may end up
issuing one later this morning.
A coastal trough will be developing off the mid and lower Texas
coast over the next few days. Winds will veer to the east with
scattered showers Thursday into Friday. Look for a return of
onshore winds this weekend as a warm front moves inland.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 39 60 45 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 67 44 61 48 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 61 57 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ210-
214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
The weather this month sucked and 2024 was another clown show. Adios, and hello 2025.
Team #NeverSummer
Beautiful day out there today, picture perfect and feels perfect as well!
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
In my weather world, this is the warmest Winter gets, and I agree, this is a nice day.
35 to 55 is the perfect day. With a breeze and partly cloudy. You can run in that weather for miles, I can build miles of fence at the farm, and just sit outside.
Late Spring and Summer suck for those activities.
Team #NeverSummer
My weather app has snow on the 9th. lol