December 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Yep, here it comes


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
239 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC201-339-282100-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-241228T2100Z/
Montgomery TX-Harris TX-
239 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 238 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hooks Airport,
or near Tomball, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Humble, Tomball, The Woodlands, Spring, Kingwood, Oak Ridge North,
Shenandoah, The Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport, Chateau Woods,
Hurricane Harbor Splashtown, Porter Heights, northern Bush
Intercontinental Airport, and Lake Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 9563 3016 9561 3022 9528 2999 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 263DEG 38KT 3006 9554

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Wood
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The southern storm is a monster, still going strong towards Port Arthur (as of time of writing).
user:null
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Also, the storms have overperformed in general. I'm hearing that Travis Herzog mentioned rotational activity would be focused more north. Yet there is a notable storm farther south towards Port Arthur now (same one that affected League City/Dickinson/Bacliff areas earlier).
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sambucol
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Family was in their safe room in Anahuac. Tornado passed but it was a little scary. Everyone is good.
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DoctorMu
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Insane. Hope all are safe.

https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1873123081386115148

Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
·
28m
This monster tornado has been on the ground for over 70 miles and more than 2 hours, crossing the entire Galveston Bay. It is now at the doorstep of Port Arthur, Texas.
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tireman4
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Now that the severe weather threat is over for the Hoston Metro area, we focus on the end of 2024. As we progress toward January, significant changes might be in store for the start of 2025.
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 4:01 pm Family was in their safe room in Anahuac. Tornado passed but it was a little scary. Everyone is good.
The tornado went right over Trinity Bay. Unbelievable.
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The worst of it skipped Port Arthur to the south, thankfully.

But it's strange. I don't see much in the way of noteworthy damage from the images I'm seeing so far. Just stuff like powerline/poles tilted. So either the tornado was not very strong (unlike imaging indicated), or it simply passed over as much uninhabited area as possible?
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DoctorMu
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Seasonable weather begins on Tuesday.
Cpv17
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I wonder when was the last time we had a tornado outbreak like this across our area over a 3-4 day period.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:46 pm I wonder when was the last time we had a tornado outbreak like this across our area over a 3-4 day period.
Harvey was the last time. Harvey holds a record not only for rainfall but also for the number of tornadoes it produced.154 tornado warnings were issued locally. Harvey produced a total of 56 confirmed tornadoes across several states. They were tropical tornadoes though which are usually smaller and briefer than classic supercell tornadoes. (Journal linked below with a lot of information about it.)


https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0196.1.xml
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jasons2k
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Can still see the front…
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Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:54 pm Can still see the front…
It feels really good out there now. Very comfortable.
Pas_Bon
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What a day yesterday. I was holed up inside my house with the flu. I could barely move. Thank God, because the tornado passed only 3 miles south of me here in League City. Someone from out of state asked me yesterday morning about the supposed weather here and I told her it was more of a La/Ms problem. Boy, was I wrong. Hope everyone is ok.
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tireman4
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961
FXUS64 KHGX 291232
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Even with the passage of the cold front, light winds/wet grounds and
mostly clear skies are making for favorable conditions for patchy to
dense fog this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect over much
of the CWA through mid morning (or so). But as this cooler/drier air
mass continues to filter in from the north, visibilites could bounce
around a bit (from 1/4 to 1 mile) before finally clearing later this
morning. CAA will be weakening by this afternoon as the weak surface
high shifts further east. This combined with the next next shortwave
moving into and developing across the Southern Plains will allow for
the return of light onshore winds tonight. And as such, we could see
the return of some patchy fog tonight as well. Not too sure that the
visibilities will fall into Dense Fog Advisory criteria at this
time given the lower dewpoints. Highs will be in the mid to upper
60s to- day with lows tonight in lower to mid 50s.

By Mon, as the surface low deepens further over the Southern Plains,
the strengthening onshore winds (and WAA) will make for much warmer/
slightly more humid weather. But this next system will be dragging a
second cold front into/across the region Mon night. At this time, no
significant rain chances are expected with FROPA per the mostly dry/
stable air mass already in place. So, Mon highs in the lower to mid
70s will be falling back into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon night.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

A dry cold front should be moving off the coast Tuesday morning
bringing a return to seasonable temperatures across the region. A
coastal trough should develop offshore late in the week. Look for
some increasing cloudiness and chances for isolated-scattered
showers Thursday night and Friday. Some uncertainty in regards to
the weekend wx with a mixed bag of 00z deterministic guidance.
Some show a gradual warm-up as southerly winds resume, some are
status quo with frontal boundary/trof hanging out offshore and
more of an easterly llvl flow, and others such as ECMWF & ECMWF AI
show a respectable cold front passing through on Sunday. Until we
see a better consensus taking shape, we`ll ride with the NBM
guidance for the time being. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Areas of dense fog have formed over SE TX this morning even with the
gradual influx of cooler/drier air in the wake of yesterday`s front.
Weak high pressure along with light winds should keep the lower vis-
ibilities/ceilings in place through mid to late morning...along with
calm to light/variable winds (<4kts). VFR conditions to prevail over
the CWA this afternoon. A light S/SE flow will be developing tonight
(2-6kts) along with the return of some patchy fog (3-6sm). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Light winds are expected today...gradually returning to an onshore
direction and increasing on Monday. Brief periods of patchy fog
are possible in the bays during the late night and early morning
hours until the next cold front passes off the coast Tuesday
morning. No significant weather is anticipated with the second
front, though water levels in the bays could fall slightly below
normal in its wake. A coastal trough should develop off the mid
and lower Texas coast later in the week and bring some scattered
showers into the area Thursday night into Friday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 52 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 54 76 53 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 59 71 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>212-226-227-236-237-336-337.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
Cpv17
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I guess fog is just to be expected every morning these days. Sick of it at this point.
Cromagnum
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What a year of bad weather Houston has had.

The Derecho.
Beryl
Drought suckfest
No fall
Hot Christmas
3 tornado days in December.

Am I forgetting anything?
biggerbyte
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2024 1:25 pm What a year of bad weather Houston has had.

The Derecho.
Beryl
Drought suckfest
No fall
Hot Christmas
3 tornado days in December.

Am I forgetting anything?

Yup. I guess we will soon be seeing a snownato. Wacky weather.
walsean1
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biggerbyte wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2024 1:32 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2024 1:25 pm What a year of bad weather Houston has had.

The Derecho.
Beryl
Drought suckfest
No fall
Hot Christmas
3 tornado days in December.

Am I forgetting anything?

Yup. I guess we will soon be seeing a snownato. Wacky weather.
We had a mini Ice Storm in February
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