Hurricane Tomas Accelerating NNE From the Bahamas

[srainhoutx]

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KWBC 271919
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1919 UTC WED OCT 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101027 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101027  1800   101028  0600   101028  1800   101029  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     6.0N  43.0W    6.0N  46.5W    6.4N  50.2W    7.0N  53.7W
BAMD     6.0N  43.0W    5.9N  46.0W    6.1N  49.2W    6.6N  52.4W
BAMM     6.0N  43.0W    5.9N  46.1W    6.1N  49.5W    6.5N  52.8W
LBAR     6.0N  43.0W    6.5N  45.7W    7.5N  48.8W    8.8N  52.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101029  1800   101030  1800   101031  1800   101101  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     7.7N  57.0W    8.6N  62.3W    9.3N  66.6W   10.5N  70.4W
BAMD     7.0N  55.6W    7.9N  61.1W    9.0N  66.5W   10.1N  71.9W
BAMM     7.1N  56.1W    7.8N  61.3W    8.7N  65.9W    9.7N  70.3W
LBAR     9.9N  55.0W   12.0N  59.9W   15.6N  62.5W   16.8N  62.6W
SHIP        52KTS          73KTS          86KTS          91KTS
DSHP        52KTS          38KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   6.0N LONCUR =  43.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =   5.5N LONM12 =  40.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =   5.0N LONM24 =  37.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

Development may take awhile, but models do like this feature further into the Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

12Z...

[srainhoutx]

Certainly some spin noted with 91L...

[srainhoutx]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

12Z HWRF suggests a Hurricane S of PR in 126 hours...

[srainhoutx]

91L looks to be a big cyclone once it starts to ramp up...

[srainhoutx]

18Z HWRF suggests a Hurricane SE of PR in 72 hours...

[srainhoutx]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect we will see a raise in the percentage with 91L...

[Ptarmigan]

91L looks very impressive for this time of the year. If it enters the Caribbean, it will likely develop into Tomas, which would be the 19th storm of the season and it is not over yet. I think we could enter the Greek letters.

[srainhoutx]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

[srainhoutx]

12Z track and intensity...

10292010 12Z track_early3.png

10292010 12Z intensity_early3.png

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

1515Z...looks like Tomas is well on the way...

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291839
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE IS FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
TOMAS AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD ALSO
THEN BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

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WHXX01 KWBC 291853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101029 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101029  1800   101030  0600   101030  1800   101031  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  56.8W   11.7N  60.1W   12.3N  63.3W   12.6N  66.3W
BAMD    10.8N  56.8W   11.7N  59.1W   12.5N  61.3W   13.1N  63.4W
BAMM    10.8N  56.8W   11.6N  59.2W   12.3N  61.5W   12.9N  63.8W
LBAR    10.8N  56.8W   12.1N  59.2W   14.0N  61.6W   15.0N  63.5W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          57KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          57KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101031  1800   101101  1800   101102  1800   101103  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  69.2W   13.1N  74.7W   12.9N  77.5W   14.3N  75.5W
BAMD    13.9N  65.6W   15.5N  70.0W   17.5N  73.3W   21.3N  74.4W
BAMM    13.5N  66.3W   14.6N  71.5W   15.7N  75.7W   17.2N  77.2W
LBAR    16.1N  65.0W   17.3N  66.7W   17.1N  66.5W   16.7N  64.9W
SHIP        63KTS          65KTS          67KTS          73KTS
DSHP        63KTS          65KTS          67KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  56.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =   9.3N LONM12 =  53.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =   7.7N LONM24 =  50.4W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 18:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10°55'N 56°46'W (10.9167N 56.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 244 miles (393 km) to the SE (128°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 40kts (From the NE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:26:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SOME SPIRAL BANDING. SFC CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST

[texoz]

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated