December 2024

[tireman4]

Radar..

[jasons2k]

I prefer to see quantum computer do weather forecasting.

Apples and oranges. Quantum computers will be the hardware to do what we’re describing. It’s part of the paradigm shift. You need quantum computing to get the most out of AI, at least what we’re able to comprehend anyway. They will both complement each other to accelerate the learning and refine the AI outcomes.

[jasons2k]

Already some strong discrete cells out there. Hopefully nobody’s Christmas bonus gets blown on a roof claim deductible.

[spadilly]

Christmas Eve service was interrupted by everyone’s emergency alert.

Couldn’t have been in a better location for a touchdown, but thankfully nothing happened.

[jasons2k]

The storms sorta keep back building over the same areas.

[walsean1]

Christmas Eve service was interrupted by everyone’s emergency alert.

Couldn’t have been in a better location for a touchdown, but thankfully nothing happened.

I was at Houston’s first cypress campus when everyone’s emergency alert on their phones where sounding. Bit like you mentioned, thank god nothing happened

[spadilly]

Christmas Eve service was interrupted by everyone’s emergency alert.

Couldn’t have been in a better location for a touchdown, but thankfully nothing happened.

I was at Houston’s first cypress campus when everyone’s emergency alert on their phones where sounding. Bit like you mentioned, thank god nothing happened

That’s where we were too. I’ll be honest, I had RadarScope up and was pretty concerned when I saw it.

[DoctorMu]

The thing about AI, even if Open Source. Who calibrates them? Where is the validity and reliability data.

That’s one of the fundamentals when using machine learning to build and AI model.
You trash the bad outcomes that used trashy inputs. Eventually, through running a crapload of outcomes over time, you’re able to eliminate the bad data inputs. In theory anyway. Like anything else, it takes time.

But machine learning and processing speed are quickly reaching a tipping point where it can ‘teach itself’ to eliminate the bad data inputs, further accelerating the ‘good outcomes’
Those outcomes are used for future modeling and it essentially compounds over time, like an exponential curve.

We’ve been rounding the base of that curve for a couple of decades now, and now we’re starting to accelerate ‘up’ the curve. It’s liftoff folks, it truly is going to be a paradigm-shifting decade ahead in so many areas.

As far as who curates the data, etc,. well we’re about to see examples of that with all the startups about to take open-source models and ‘tweak’ the data points to try and get an edge on accuracy. Not a whole lot different than what they do today with ‘open source’ NWS data, but on a much faster scale with a lot more data.

But where's the gold standards and proof-of-concept? There's not even one AI or one type of AI. What are the bad outcomes? Who decided that? What are the measurements? Tolerance?

Even doing literature searches, a dedicated task that AI should do reasonably well, AI misses a lot of human elements. Like which laboratories do good research, who doesn't? Who makes good AI? and who doesn't?

In areas where there is a lot of research, AI should do better. Still, when the question is complex and difficult, we have data that shows AI, since its programmed by humans, starts making up stuff and even provides fake references...just like the occasional student. Because it's programmed by many, many humans. If AI is flawed, who comes in and corrects the code? How does that new code interact with all of the other subroutines?

Another issue with the validity and reliability is that AI client expectations are met. This is always the problem with the private/profit section. A thumb is always on the scale. Each AI is only as good as the humans that developed, wronte, and tested it.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6469981/


If AI learns quickly and can shift through gobs of data, then why didn't AI realize that much of the red shift of light with increasing distance (far away and long ago galaxies) was artifact. This was sussed out by human scientists who realized like I did decades ago that the chance that the red shift in warped space-time would be exactly the same in all directions had to be artifact. When it's too perfect it's artifact. This year we learned that light "gets tired" as it moves through billions of light years, creating part of the red shift. The latestes estimate of about 26B years is twice the standard, previous thought of about 13B yrs.

I give you Star Trek TOS:

https://youtu.be/dIpsvF50yps?si=T_TfaXkuwXg2FEvG

[DoctorMu]

That cell around Navasota means business, but it's not really moving, just backbuilding and stretching on a SW to NE line. Nice lightning show, but barely a drop here.

[DoctorMu]

There's a line forming just NW of us with an embedded severe cell. It could slide just N of my backyard..

The line of showers and cells is strengthening, but could get its act together.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
12/24/2024 19:20 CST through 12/24/2024 19:30 CST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued December 24 at 7:20PM CST until December 24 at 7:30PM CST by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
At 720 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bryan Utilities
Lake, or 10 miles west of Bryan, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Northern College Station, Bryan, Bryan Utilities Lake, and Kyle
Field.
Instructions
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[Cromagnum]

Completely missed us up here, but looks pretty strong headed towards H-Town. Lots of isolated mesos.

[DoctorMu]

Completely missed us up here, but looks pretty strong headed towards H-Town. Lots of isolated mesos.

It's a heckuva a lightning show up north of us in north Bryan. One of the storm cells to our SW may get us.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

CoCo light show right now courtesy of Fayette County

[Ptarmigan]

I prefer to see quantum computer do weather forecasting.

Apples and oranges. Quantum computers will be the hardware to do what we’re describing. It’s part of the paradigm shift. You need quantum computing to get the most out of AI, at least what we’re able to comprehend anyway. They will both complement each other to accelerate the learning and refine the AI outcomes.

AI in its current state is about to hit a wall. Computing has not improved much in the past few years. Quantum AI will probably be in the future and can learn on its own. A quantum AI could come up with a forecast in near real time. The current forecasting with supercomputers take hours as it has to ingest all the data it gets.

[Ptarmigan]

Wintry precipitation in December is rare, but not unheard of. There was a big freezing rain event in December 1924. If it happened today, it would likely shut down the city.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

Christmas Eve 2004 - 20 years ago. See my avatar! We drove down from B/CS to Houston to see it. Massive and rapidly accumulating snow. We were driving on Gessner near my wife's brother's house. Then, just blocks away, the thermostat sticks on our Dodge Caravan, and the car overheats in less than 30 sec., blowing out the #1 cylinder. There is literally just one gas station open, so we roll in and I take the kids to brother in law's house. Unbelievable - you can't make this up. By the time we get there, there are 3-4" of snow on the ground. The first time they experienced snow.

That's the last American vehicle I've purchased.

It has been 20 years that glorious snow fell on Christmas Eve. Not today. Sigh.

[davidiowx]

Merry Christmas all! Who woulda thought we would have intense T’storms on Christmas night. Be safe and enjoy!

[jasons2k]

The radar is lit up like a Christmas tree! Everyone be safe and Merry Christmas!

[spadilly]

Hail near 59/99 in the Richmond area just now.

[biggerbyte]

Tornadoes and Severe Storms for Christmas.. In all of my years on this planet I have never seen such an event.

[Cpv17]

Tornadoes and Severe Storms for Christmas.. In all of my years on this planet I have never seen such an event.

Means the pattern is changing.