December 2024

[don]

Please enjoy the eye candy of the 12Z GFS. LOL

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_53.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_54.png

[Stratton20]

Don haha theirs the good old GFS back at it! But in all seriousness, the ensembles do have an incredible blocking pattern that could support something like that, all the teleconnections are lining up

[don]

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_56.png

[DoctorMu]

Congrats to the Columbus Cardinals on bringing the first state championship to Colorado County!

In addition, congrats to the Jackson County Ganado Indians on their first state title!

There are your HGX state champions.


Here’s to my hometown rivals of Kilgore and Carthage sweeping 4A today!

Nice. The Longhorns took care of the NIL-less Clemson Tigers

[sswinney]

Imagine if this came to fruition and that feature over the BOC tracked closer to our coast.

[DoctorMu]

Please enjoy the eye candy of the 12Z GFS. LOL



gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_53.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_54.png

haha. If that middle model held true.

We actually hit 32°F last night IMFY. I think that's the 6th freeze. I need to keep more thorough records.

Speaking of which...we had over 50 inches of rain through July and approximately 7 inches since then. Feast or famine...it must be Texas.

[DoctorMu]

It's the 12z GFS, but again for entertainment only.

[tireman4]

773
FXUS64 KHGX 221035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

If you`re like me and enjoy temperatures that feel winter-ish,
you`ll want to take advantage of the cold air this morning as it
could very well be our last time seeing temperatures in the 30s this
year. That`s my way of attempting to jinx things to get another
round of cold air soon, so we`ll see if that ends up working!
Expecting another round of pre-sunrise temperatures in the 30s/40s
with freezing temperatures possible around the Piney Woods. With
surface high pressure continuing to slide eastward, we`ll begin to
feel the effects of the return of onshore flow today. Low level
moisture will gradually increase along with increasingly favorable
positioning for WAA as surface low pressure develops around the
TX/OK panhandle and places more of Southeast TX in its warm sector.
High temperatures this afternoon will top out mainly in the 60s, but
some low 70s will be possible around Matagorda Bay. A weak shortwave
trough pushes in later today, but with moisture still on the low
side this won`t do much other than generate some upper level clouds
in our northwestern zones. This should make for a rather picturesque
sunset for folks around the Brazos Valley.

The most notable impact for ALL of Southeast Texas will be the
warming trend as a result of the previously mentioned ingredients.
Low temperatures on Sunday night will be about 10-15F warmer
compared to Saturday night as we only drop down into the upper 40s
to low 50s. With moisture advection and WAA persisting on Monday in
addition to lingering PVA, Monday will be warm and noticeably more
humid. By Monday afternoon, PW values will be around 0.9"-1.1" which
is approaching the 75th percentile (~1.12") out west. Quite a few of
the 00Z CAMs depict some isolated light WAA showers on Monday
afternoon, but not so fast my friend! Most of that moisture falls
between the 750mb-850mb layer with a dry layer extending from about
~1km AGL to the surface. While some raindrops may manage to reach
the surface, most of it should evaporate beforehand...so added in
10% PoPs for virga. Areas west of I-45 will have the best chance of
feeling any rogue raindrops on Monday. As far as temperatures go on
Monday, expect highs in the low to upper 70s.

Now back to that surface low pressure...it`s going to drift eastward
along the Red River throughout the day on Monday as an upper level
trough moving through the TX panhandle provides a push. Rain chances
will be on the rise offshore initially on Monday night, but expect
them to continue to climb going into the long term period. There
remains some potential for patchy fog around the Brazos Valley on
Monday night, but a ~25 kt LLJ may keep winds elevated enough
overnight to inhibit fog development. There is waaay more certainty
in Monday night`s temperatures being absurdly above normal. Low
temperatures Monday night will be mainly in the upper 50s (Piney
Woods) to low 60s (elsewhere), which is nearly our normal HIGH
temperature this time of the year. At least Monday is National Bake
Day, so we can bake some sweet treats to distract us from the
warming temperatures.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A couple of storm systems and associated showers/storms will be moving
eastward across the state. Look for increasing rain coverage beginning
Tuesday morning then peaking Tuesday afternoon until around sunrise
Wednesday morning. At this time, rainfall totals look to average around
or under 1/4 inch in/around the Matagorda Bay area to maybe up to
1 inch in/around the Crockett area. Locally higher amounts will be possible,
and we might need to keep our eyes open for a strong/severe thunderstorm
or two. This event should come to an end in time for any Christmas Day
plans. The next disturbance in the progressive flow should bring increasing
rain chances back to the area on Thursday with a peak Thursday afternoon
until around sunrise Friday morning. At this time and similar to the
first event, rainfall totals are expected to be highest in/around the
Piney Woods area (around 1 to 1.50 inches) and lowest in/around the
Matagorda Bay area (around 1/4 inch or less). Locally higher amounts
will be possible once again. Another system after this second one will
support keeping some rain chances in the forecast at the end of the
week and on into Saturday. For daily temperatures, look for highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s. At this time, it looks like the area cools
back down starting Saturday night after the passage of a cold front.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Satellite imagery and observations reveal a deck of overcast cloud
cover around 6,000ft moving into the northwestern quadrant of
Southeast TX. As of now, it appears that it will not push past the
I-10 corridor. Either way, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the TAF period with easterly winds becoming southeasterly by this
afternoon. The one questionable spot is CLL where some model
guidance is hinting at the potential for MVFR ceilings late Sunday
night/Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Light to moderate east winds today will become southeast tonight. South
to southeast winds can be expected through much of the upcoming week.
Caution flags may be needed at times. The next best chances of rain
are expected Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning and then
again Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning as a series of
storm systems move across the area. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 51 74 61 / 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 64 50 72 61 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 63 59 69 64 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[Cromagnum]

As a sign of how non cold it is, a rogue mosquito got in my house and started a hatchery in my Christmas tree water bowl. Killed at least 15 since yesterday.

[tireman4]

Christmas Eve might be wet..

[tireman4]

30
FXUS64 KHGX 231100
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Since today is Festivus (for the rest of us), we can finally air out
some grievances with Mother Nature...my main one being that
Christmas should ALWAYS be cold! Shorts and flip-flops shouldn`t be
needed to be comfortable on Christmas Day...but I digress. With
surface high pressure off to our east and a developing area of
surface low pressure currently near the TX/OK panhandles placing us
in its warm sector later today, we`ll have plenty of WAA and
moisture advection to go around. This will lead to high temperatures
today mainly in the low to mid 70s, which is nearly 10F above
normal. The trend of warmer temperatures continues through midweek,
so now you have an early idea of what Christmas Day will be like.

PW values by this afternoon will be around 0.9"-1.1", which is
approaching the 75th percentile (~1.12"). The latest CAMs continue
to show isolated to scattered rain showers offshore and around
Matagorda Bay throughout the afternoon. There remains a dry layer
extending from the surface up to ~1km AGL and the layer of moisture
looks rather shallow, so not expecting much more than sprinkles to
light rain to reach the surface today. That won`t be the case on
Tuesday (Christmas Eve)...the next paragraph is important if you`re
planning on traveling for the holiday (especially if you`re
traveling by sleigh). A 25-30 kt LLJ slides in over portions of the
Brazos Valley going into tonight, which could play a role in
inhibiting fog development. The highest potential for patchy fog
will be for locations west of I-45 and south of I-10 tonight into
Tuesday morning. Expect low temperatures to range from the upper 50s
to low 60s. Now let`s get to what y`all are really here to read
about...

By Tuesday, we`ll have dew points reaching the low 60s as surface
low pressure continues to scoot eastward along the Red River and
dragging a frontal boundary towards Southeast Texas. PW values ahead
of the front reach the 1.2"-1.4" range (90th percentile: ~1.37"), so
we`ll have plenty of moisture in place to be lifted by increasing
PVA from an approaching mid level shortwave. The environment ahead
of the approaching front does look marginally favorable for a few
storms to become strong to severe on Tuesday afternoon/evening with
modest instability available (600-1000 J/kg CAPE) and steep 700-
500mb lapse rates (~7.0C/km). Bulk shear is on the low side though
(~30 kts), so if a storm were to become strong to severe it likely
wouldn`t be able to maintain itself for a long period of time. Any
of the stronger storms would be capable of producing strong wind
gusts, marginally severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall, which is
why SPC has outlined areas north of a Wharton-Pearland-Liberty line
in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall was mentioned as well as there are some
synoptic features at play to help with that: upper level divergence
(left exit region of jet streak), frontogenetic forcing from the
approaching weak front, and convective enhancement from a 25-30 kt
LLJ. As a result, WPC has outlined essentially the same area in a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall. Most will
see rainfall totals of less than an inch, but the previously
mentioned ingredients line up the best across the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods especially on Tuesday evening/night. I wouldn`t
be surprised to see isolated higher totals across that region. This
means that Santa will definitely need Rudolph to be well rested as
his nose will be needed to route through some rainfall. Speaking of
Rudolph...his song mentions "one foggy Christmas Eve", and it does
have the potential to be that for some on Tuesday night due to
rainfall from earlier in the day and light winds overnight. This
appears to be most likely for locations south of I-10, so it
technically could be a "white Christmas"...just not the kind that
everyone wanted. The progression of the weak front remains in
question as some model guidance pushes it through to the coast by
sunrise on Wednesday (Christmas) morning and others stall/wash it
out beforehand. If you were curious about the temperatures on
Christmas Eve, it`s essentially a copy-pasta of Monday`s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Rains/storms from the first storm system will be exiting the area off
to the east on Wednesday morning (Christmas Day). Look for high temperatures
in the 60s/70s. The weather Wednesday afternoon looks mostly quiet,
and this pattern will only persist through Thursday morning (lows Wednesday
night will be in an upper 50s to lower 60s range for much of the area).
Beginning Thursday afternoon, the next storm system then will begin
to work its way across our area. Best shower/storm chances will be Thursday
afternoon (high temperatures in the 70s... maybe close to 80 towards
the Matagorda Bay area) through Thursday night (low temperatures in
the 50s/60s). Some rain could linger around Friday morning through Friday
evening (highs Friday in the similar to Thursday...in the 70s and maybe
close to 80 towards the Matagorda Bay area), but better chances come
again Friday night through Saturday as the final weaknesses/disturbances
edge eastward across the state. Lows Friday night will be in the 50s/60s
and highs on Saturday will be...again...in the 70s and maybe close to
80s towards the Matagorda Bay area. Winds will finally shift to the
north on Saturday afternoon/evening behind a cold front and will help
to dry the area out for the rest of the weekend. Lows on Saturday night
will cool back down (40s/50s), and highs on a less humid Sunday will
be in an upper 60s to low 70s range. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A layer of BKN-OVC clouds around 5,000-6,000ft continues to fill
in from west to east across Southeast TX. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR through tonight, but these clouds will linger
throughout the day. Southeasterly winds will pick up later this
afternoon with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to
20-25 kt at times. Ceilings lower going into the overnight hours
and gradually trend towards becoming MVFR at IAH and northward
into Tuesday morning.

High-res model guidance depicts some isolated to scattered rain
showers beginning to push through the area late Monday night into
Tuesday. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon, but the confidence on exact timing/location remains on
the low side for now so there are no mentions of that in any of
the TAFs.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Light to moderate south to southeast winds will persist for much of
the week. Caution thresholds could be reached at times. Patchy fog
could occasionally develop too. Some rain is possible today, but better
rain chances begin tonight and continue through Wednesday morning as
a storm system moves into the area. At this time, Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning looks quiet. More rains can be expected
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as a second system moves on
through. Our next cold front currently looks to move across Saturday
afternoon or evening with offshore winds developing in its wake. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 61 75 58 / 0 20 60 70
Houston (IAH) 72 61 74 61 / 10 20 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 70 63 71 63 / 10 20 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Anatomy of a minor Minnesota forecast ‘bust’ from last week
By Matt Lanza on December 23, 2024

At The Eyewall, our ultimate goal is to make this the premier site or newsletter for weather and forecast information. How we get there involves some experimentation more than just forcing a post for post's sake. Today we're going to tackle a relatively small forecast bust that occurred in the Upper Midwest last week that speaks to the difficulties of forecasting sometimes.

In brief: Below, I show a case in Minnesota last week where the forecast sort of misplaced the higher-end snow totals. While modeling had been generally supportive of the higher snow totals along and north of I-94, which goes through Minneapolis, the highest totals actually ended up between Minneapolis and Mankato, south of I-94. It wasn't a busted forecast in a classic sense, but it offered an opportunity to assess how models did. And wouldn't you know it, the European AI modeling seemed to be the most consistent in identifying the riskiest areas for highest precip totals as being south of I-94.

If you read every one of our posts every day throughout hurricane season (bless your heart and thank you if you did), you would have noticed a bit of a change in "tone" or frequency of us discussing things like AI modeling or the ICON model. One post in particular stands out regarding Hurricane Francine.

I've been professionally forecasting weather for over 20 years now, and much like a generation of forecasters before me witnessed in their careers, I firmly believe we are witnessing one of the most consequential forecasting "revolutions," if you will in a very long time. There have always been new or tweaked models intended to improve forecast output. Things change, they get better, the science moves forward. But what we are seeing now is what I believe to be a legitimate disruption. AI, machine learning, and more efficient computer power are leading to a new wave of models, new ways of developing models, and a turnaround time on these new tools that's lightning fast compared to history. The European AIFS model is barely 18 months old, and it's already become an absolutely essential tool in the toolkit. Every few weeks a company like NVIDIA or Google or a smaller firm comes forward and announces some breakthrough they've made in forecasting using AI and machine learning. Of course, science by press release tells us nothing useful. But as some of this stuff gets integrated and made available to forecasters, it seems clear that the hype has some legitimacy.


Snowfall analysis (interpolated) from southern Minnesota last week. Note the patch of 8 to 12 inches south and southwest of Minneapolis.
So what does this have to do with Minnesota? Well, I wanted to walk through the anatomy of a fairly minor forecast "bust" of sorts that occurred in Minnesota last week. I'm not going to throw anyone under the proverbial bus here; the NWS and others did a fine job overall messaging how this system would impact the region, and for the most part that's what happened. But there were some surprises in how this unfolded, which were fairly small in terms of mathematical error or impacts but may have led to the perception of a fairly meaningful forecast bust.

Last Thursday, a storm system passing quickly through the state was expected to produce a widespread accumulating snow, which it did. The general thinking was that the highest totals would be north of I-94, which runs from Fargo through Alexandria (a favorite place of this author's) and St. Cloud into the Twin Cities. There had been signs this was coming several days in advance. Last Monday, the NWS in the Twin Cities wrote this in their forecast discussion.

The general model consensus this morning has this swath setting up along & north of Interstate 94, but a few solutions do displace it totally to the south across southwest Minnesota & northern Iowa. So in summary, confidence continues to be very high in this system developing and for at least these Winter Weather Advisory-level snowfall amounts to occur, but is still low to medium on where the heaviest amounts are most likely across Minnesota & Wisconsin.

On Tuesday, their forecast discussion had not budged much at all, and the models had basically gotten in line with the idea of the highest precipitation totals along and north of I-94.

Models over the last 12 hours have trended slightly farther south, with the consensus track now placing the highest chances for snow along the Interstate 94 corridor. Still, chances still look good to expect 3-6" of snow along and north of the Interstate 94 corridor of central MN & western WI, with amounts tapering off to around 1" across southern MN.

There was not a whole lot of change in tone on Wednesday either, other than the potential that a dry slot may cut down totals a bit further in southern Minnesota with some risk of getting into the Twin Cities. But in general, the consensus was for a 3-6" snowfall in Minneapolis, with lesser amounts to the south. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center's probability map of 4 inches or more of snow from that Wednesday showed about a 70 percent (high) chance of it occurring, and the geographically astute will notice it was very much along or north of I-94.


NWS WPC probability of 4" or more of snow last Thursday, issued on Wednesday afternoon.
If you look at their forecast of where the low pressure system itself would track, you would see it going across southwest Minnesota and into northeast Iowa.


Wednesday afternoon's forecast of the low pressure track in the Upper Midwest.
The colors indicate ensemble track clusters, while the solid black line and L's indicates the WPC preferred track forecast. Putting this all together, the NWS issued this snowfall forecast below on Wednesday afternoon.


NWS Twin Cities snow forecast on Wednesday evening for last Thursday's snow.
If you looked at this and lived in Mankato or Faribault, you expected just a few inches of snow. Faribault would actually end up closer to 8 inches of snow. Thursday's forecast update did correctly nudge totals up there a bit.


Thursday morning's updated snow forecast for Minnesota.
When all was said and done, as you can see near the top of the post, the heaviest snows actually fell along and south of I-94, not north of I-94. So why did this happen, and did any models catch this?

Well, first off, the models did pretty well with the storm track forecast. As shown by the WPC above, the low pressure system tracked into northeast Iowa and across northern Illinois as expected. No surprises there.

Let's take a look at the forecast precipitation from the models versus what verified. These are from 6z runs on Wednesday, meaning this would have been the newest likely data you'd have at your disposal making a forecast on Wednesday, early to mid-morning. I have included the ECMWF classic operational model, the ECMWF AIFS model, and the HRRR model, our higher resolution short-range model, as well as a verification based on radar estimates. Click to enlarge it.


Clockwise from top: Verified precipitation totals based on radar observations, the ECMWF operational model forecast, the ECMWF AIFS model forecast, and the HRRR model forecast.
What's up here? The Euro operational, which is generally anticipated to be the best in these scenarios had the corridor of highest precip totals right along I-94. The HRRR model was displaced way north of I-94. The AIFS model had the highest totals south and west of Minneapolis. The AIFS was actually quite consistent with that story. The ECMWF operational model had wobbled north with the highest totals on Wednesday before correcting back southward prior to the onset of the event on Thursday, with Wednesday evening's model runs basically right in line with the AIFS model.

One of the things that continues to fascinate me about the AIFS model is that it often locks in on a solution with respect to a storm track and stay fixated on that. Let's look at the 10 runs up to Thursday afternoon's low placement. The ECMWF operational model had a couple issues. It was too far south early on, then corrected about 3 tiers of counties too far north before eventually settling back closer to the Iowa/Minnesota state line.


The European model forecast of low pressure position for the 10 runs leading into 18z (12PM CT) on Thursday.
By no means would this be considered a "bad" forecast. You're talking about a really well done forecast overall. Interestingly, if we look at the AIFS model, there was a lot less bouncing around that occurred. The forecast position of the low stayed basically within the upper 2 to 3 tiers of counties in Iowa.


The AIFS model forecast of low pressure for the 10 runs leading into 18z (12 PM CT) on Thursday
Generally speaking, the models seemed to do well with this system, but overall, it gets challenging in storms like this. If the exact track shifts 20-30 miles, you can take the best vertical velocity (or "lift," rising air) in whatever direction that shift is in. I suspect that despite having a good forecast at a high level, the European operational model's tendency to bounce around a bit possibly negatively impacted the forecast that had the higher totals generally near and north of Minneapolis as opposed to between Minneapolis and Mankato.

What is impressive to me is the continued performance of the AIFS model. It remains extremely imperfect from a specifics standpoint. In other words, because of how it runs, it's usually unable to capture fine-scale features like precipitation maxes in major events, peak low pressure in a large hurricane, etc. But as a forecaster, I don't need it to do that for me. What I need is generally accuracy, and then I can rely on other model data to fill in the gaps. In this instance, the AIFS was rather consistently showing the highest precipitation totals south of I-94, whereas its counterparts either flailed around a bit or didn't catch on til the end. Even some of the highest resolution modeling we have to handle situations like this took until 12 hours or less before the system hit to adjust these totals farther to the south.

Anyway, to me this is another case where AI modeling could give you an edge. The challenge is feeling confident enough to buy in.

[jasons2k]

Thanks for posting this. I work in technology, and AI, machine learning, and quantum computing are hot topics. It’s applicable to a number of fields. Matt is right, there is a paradigm shift happening as we speak. Some amazing things are just on the horizon.

[tireman4]

Just an FYI for tomorrow

[spadilly]

“You had my curiosity, but now you have my attention.”

https://x.com/nadocast/status/1871394039540437417?s=46

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the next front a week or so out is going to go way east.

[DoctorMu]

Thanks for posting this. I work in technology, and AI, machine learning, and quantum computing are hot topics. It’s applicable to a number of fields. Matt is right, there is a paradigm shift happening as we speak. Some amazing things are just on the horizon.

OTOH, Siri is now causing traffic jams in the area. three trucks that were to high for our bridges managed to hit 3 of the bridges in a 3 week span.

The thing about AI, even if Open Source. Who calibrates them? Where is the validity and reliability data.

I've noticed that Euro AI is significantly less granular than some of the human - machine models and therefore appears more consistent, run to run. But frankly, we shouldn't be paying attention to the models run to run, except for entertainment value! METs weigh the models, runs, NWS guidance before making a sensible forecast.

[jasons2k]

The thing about AI, even if Open Source. Who calibrates them? Where is the validity and reliability data.

That’s one of the fundamentals when using machine learning to build and AI model.
You trash the bad outcomes that used trashy inputs. Eventually, through running a crapload of outcomes over time, you’re able to eliminate the bad data inputs. In theory anyway. Like anything else, it takes time.

But machine learning and processing speed are quickly reaching a tipping point where it can ‘teach itself’ to eliminate the bad data inputs, further accelerating the ‘good outcomes’
Those outcomes are used for future modeling and it essentially compounds over time, like an exponential curve.

We’ve been rounding the base of that curve for a couple of decades now, and now we’re starting to accelerate ‘up’ the curve. It’s liftoff folks, it truly is going to be a paradigm-shifting decade ahead in so many areas.

As far as who curates the data, etc,. well we’re about to see examples of that with all the startups about to take open-source models and ‘tweak’ the data points to try and get an edge on accuracy. Not a whole lot different than what they do today with ‘open source’ NWS data, but on a much faster scale with a lot more data.

[tireman4]

Today and tonight

[Ptarmigan]

The thing about AI, even if Open Source. Who calibrates them? Where is the validity and reliability data.

That’s one of the fundamentals when using machine learning to build and AI model.
You trash the bad outcomes that used trashy inputs. Eventually, through running a crapload of outcomes over time, you’re able to eliminate the bad data inputs. In theory anyway. Like anything else, it takes time.

But machine learning and processing speed are quickly reaching a tipping point where it can ‘teach itself’ to eliminate the bad data inputs, further accelerating the ‘good outcomes’
Those outcomes are used for future modeling and it essentially compounds over time, like an exponential curve.

We’ve been rounding the base of that curve for a couple of decades now, and now we’re starting to accelerate ‘up’ the curve. It’s liftoff folks, it truly is going to be a paradigm-shifting decade ahead in so many areas.

As far as who curates the data, etc,. well we’re about to see examples of that with all the startups about to take open-source models and ‘tweak’ the data points to try and get an edge on accuracy. Not a whole lot different than what they do today with ‘open source’ NWS data, but on a much faster scale with a lot more data.

I prefer to see quantum computer do weather forecasting.