December 2024

[Brazoriatx979]

As usual seems like the coldest weather goes East

[Brazoriatx979]

As usual seems like the coldest weather goes East

[Stratton20]

GFS has a 1056 mb canadian high dropping down from North Dakota, regardless of how the models forecast the cold airmass, its going to get cold down here, how cold is to be determined, but so far the Euro is around 1049 MB , CMC in the mid 1030’s, lots to watch with this

[Stratton20]

Man the 18z GFS is a classic setup for some over running precipitation down here, i really love that 500mb height pattern

[Brazoriatx979]

Man the 18z GFS is a classic setup for some over running precipitation down here, i really love that 500mb height pattern

Isn't that central texas and not here?

[Cpv17]

What a huge difference between the Euro and GFS. GFS barely has any rain for us and the Euro has a flood.

[Stratton20]

Brazoriatx979 yeah its south central texas on the GFS, but thats 10 days out so it doesnt mean a whole lot, the pattern it shows is intriguing to me because it has a shortwave interacting with the cold air, worth watching, but it could just as easily be gone on the next run as well lol

[jasons2k]

32.3F here this morning with heavy frost. Plants are OK. I have a much better setup now to deal with freezes or frost - stress free.

Mule palms are great, by the way.

[DoctorMu]

32.3F here this morning with heavy frost. Plants are OK. I have a much better setup now to deal with freezes or frost - stress free.

Mule palms are great, by the way.

That was the thickest frost in many years.

It looks like unsettled weather from Saturday through Tuesday. I can't catch a break on weekends - I want to start a clear coat restoration projection on our 2012 Civic.

[DoctorMu]

QPFs through next Wednesday morning range from 1-3 inches. Less south of Hwy 1*5 and I-10.

[DoctorMu]

Most of the coldest stuff during Christmas week will be east of us, but CMC brings Texas a bit more chill.

In the meantime, it could be 80°F on Sunday.

[DoctorMu]

0z CMC is backing of some of the QPF over the next few days. 0z GFS is a bust South of Hwy 1*5...

[Stratton20]

GFS has highs barely staying above 40 on the 22nd lol

[DoctorMu]

0Z CMC is colder, GFS a little milder but there could be a couple of frosts/freezes during holiday festivities.. Nothing unusual for the time of the year.

[tireman4]

906
FXUS64 KHGX 131150
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Isentropic ascent at the 295K level yielding mostly drizzle and a
few light showers this morning. A mid-upper level low pressure will
dip down from the Pacific NW towards the Rockies today. At the
surface, the combination of low pressure on the lee side of the
Rockies and high pressure over the SE has resulted in a tightening
pressure gradient over SE Texas and consequently moderate onshore
flow. This onshore flow will lead to an increase in moisture through
the day today with PW values around 1.2-1.6". With the increased
moisture return, expect to see rain chances expand further inland
today. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s north of I-10. South of I-
10 expect highs to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows for tonight
will be in the 60s for most of the area. The Piney Woods may dip
into the 50s.

A strong 925mb LLJ and an approaching mid-level shortwave
will continue to result in another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms for Saturday. HREF shows more of an organized line of
showers developing across Central Texas and moving east into SE
Texas during the morning hours of Saturday in conjunction with the
trough axis of the main upper low. Models continue to show a cold
front stalling north of the CWA for part of the day Saturday, before
pushing north later in the day. As a result there will be continued
WAA into SE Texas that will lead to an increase in daytime
temperatures for Saturday. Highs for Saturday will be in the 70s
area wide. SWmost locations will flirt with the 80 degree mark. Lows
on Saturday night into Sunday morning will not differ too much from
tonight`s lows. Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

A warm, moist onshore flow regime will prevail into Monday
contributing to some isolated-scattered showers and periods of
fog. A mid level trough will track eastward across the central and
north central parts of the country Monday. It`s associated
frontal boundary will sag into the area and provide chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the
boundary. It should make it close to the coast Monday night, but
there`s some uncertainty how much further it`ll get given that it
should be losing support for a continued southward push. A
stronger cold front is expected to move into the region Wednesday
along with another chance of precipitation. Several deterministic
models are more supportive of widespread rain chances than what`s
being depicted in the blends and current forecast, so wouldn`t be
surprised if POPs are gradually nudged upwards with further model
consistency. Lows in the 50s/60s should be knocked back down into
the 30s/40s behind the midweek front. Medium range solutions are
pointing to a 1035-1050mb high dropping south out of Canada late
in the work week. Depending on its eventual trajectory, we could
see even colder air next weekend...but that`s beyond the scope of
this forecast package. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs expected to persist today into tonight.
VCSH for much of the day with mostly light rain expected. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the afternoon. Winds will
be out of the SE with gusts to above 20 kts at times. Winds relax
this evening. Conditions begin to improve to VFR towards the coast
near the end of the period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Moderate onshore winds and somewhat elevated seas will prevail
today...especially east of Freeport. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect off the Galveston coastline and may need to be expanded
further southwest late in the day and tonight in some of the
offshore waters as speeds and seas further increase. Also have
issued a rip current statement along area beaches.

A moist onshore flow will continue into early next week. With the
warm air moving over cooler nearshore waters, periods of sea fog
are a possibility this weekend into early next week. It could
intermittently become dense at times...especially when wind
speeds diminish and in the absence of any shower activity. A weak
front is forecast to approach the coast late Monday night, but
there is some uncertainty at this point if, and how far, it will
push off the coast. A stronger cold front will push off the coast
late Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 62 73 62 / 20 40 60 10
Houston (IAH) 67 63 75 64 / 20 30 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 68 65 73 63 / 30 30 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ335-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ355-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

[DoctorMu]

CMC is hanging in there for that cold shot around Dec. 20. GFS and Euro are caving to the East.

Ensembles weaker overall. We are still a week out.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Messy wet weather is expected to continue through this TAF package as
elevated moisture levels and strong onshore winds persist. The mix of
mostly MVFR/some IFR ceilings has prevailed so far since late morning
along with areas of drizzle. SE winds (and gusts) have picked up dur-
ing the last couple of hours and will remain in place until late this
evening (SE 9-15kts/G17-24kts), then decreasing overnight (SE 5-9kts)
once again. Timing of the best rain chances will remain tricky as the
air mass stays warm/moist. Have kept a mention of -DZ along with VCSH
and SHRA in the forecast tonight. Not too confident with the mentions
of VCTS for tomorrow morning, but went ahead with it. 41

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I just hope it’s not 60 plus the week of Christmas. Preferably under 50 but I’m not going to get too greedy.

[tireman4]

674
FXUS64 KHGX 132124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Wet/grey weather will continue through the short term as SE TX re-
mains under the influence of isentropic lift aloft and deep onshore
flow at the surface. A weak cold front/dry line looks to be moving
in from W TX overnight and should approach our western CWA heading
into sunrise. This boundary along with some favorable jet dynamics
aloft could be enough to help gin up isolated thunderstorms as the
activity finally moves into/across SE TX through the day tomorrow.
Rain chances should be decreasing by late tomorrow afternoon/even-
ing as the mid/upper level support tracks quickly to the N/NE with
time. Very little (if any) CAA is expected with this weak front as
onshore winds don`t really stop. The warm/moist airmass already in
place over the region will remain in place by the looks of things.

And so in the meantime, areas of drizzle, rain and patchy fog will
be continuing this evening, as well as between the rounds of show-
ers and storms. Diurnal temperature changes are likely going to be
small the next day or so per the all the clouds/rain. Lows tonight
and tomorrow night should be in the 60s with highs tomorrow in the
70s.

41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

WAA will continue on Sunday with enough moisture to develop some
periods of showers. However, mid to upper level ridging will build
over Southeast TX during the day, which will help limit rain
development. Thus, expect rain activity to be mostly isolated.
Conditions will be warmer with highs likely to be in the in the
upper 70s to low 80s over much of Southeast TX, except the Piney
Woods region where highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Tranquil
weather is expect Sunday night with lows in the 60s.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms will rise again on Monday as
an upper level trough moves across the Central and Southern
Plains early Monday and a shortwave trailing just behind it moves
into western TX. A weak cold front will move into Southeast TX
sometime late Monday, but is expected to lift back north Tuesday
morning.

A robust upper level trough will move across the Southern Plains
late Tuesday into Wednesday and will bring in a stronger cold
front sometime during the day Wednesday. Expect a few more rounds
of showers and thunderstorms developing ahead and along the front.
Because rain chances will end once the front passes through, our
rainfall amounts will depend on how fast the front moves through.
At this time, the timing of the FROPA is different between the
Global models, with the ECMWF pushing the front off into the
coastal waters by late morning while the GFS lags a few hours
behind, which would give us a little more rainfall.

Get ready for it...temperatures on Thursday will slap - wait, did
I get that right? >.< The highs that day may be in the mid to
upper 50s for much of the region (some spots closer to the coasts
could reach 60 degrees). The lows Thursday night look to dip into
the 30s for much of Southeast TX, except around the metro area and
locations near the coast where the lows will be in the low to mid
40s. Get the hot chocolate and s`mores ready to go!

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Messy wet weather is expected to continue through this TAF package as
elevated moisture levels and strong onshore winds persist. The mix of
mostly MVFR/some IFR ceilings has prevailed so far since late morning
along with areas of drizzle. SE winds (and gusts) have picked up dur-
ing the last couple of hours and will remain in place until late this
evening (SE 9-15kts/G17-24kts), then decreasing overnight (SE 5-9kts)
once again. Timing of the best rain chances will remain tricky as the
air mass stays warm/moist. Have kept a mention of -DZ along with VCSH
and SHRA in the forecast tonight. Not too confident with the mentions
of VCTS for tomorrow morning, but went ahead with it. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow and seas of 3 to 7 feet
are expected tonight. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories are
in effect through 6 am Saturday. Elevated water levels along the
bays is also possible during high tide this evening into the
weekend. Patchy sea fog could develop tonight as warm moist air
moves over the cooler bay and nearshore waters, however, wind
speeds may inhibit its development. The threat of sea fog will
increase during the weekend and could persist into the first half
of the work week.

Expect light to moderate onshore winds this weekend and early next
week, briefly turning easterly on late Monday into Tuesday as a weak
cold front stalls inland. A stronger cold front is expected to push
off the coast sometime Wednesday and will usher in strong
offshore winds and elevated seas in its wake. Caution flags and
Advisories will be needed. Periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected until Wednesday`s front pushes
offshore. The threat of sea fog will also end in the wake of this
front.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 74 63 77 / 50 70 20 20
Houston (IAH) 63 75 64 77 / 40 50 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 70 63 74 / 40 40 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ350.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[Brazoriatx979]

I guess they were right, when they said this winter was going to suck lol