December 2024
Terrible trends for rain. I went from being in the 3-4” zone to now only half an inch to three quarters.
I’ll be surprised if I get the supposed ~1.2” forecast over here.
It sure doesn’t feel like summer out there today.
It sure doesn’t feel like summer out there today.
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My weather app shows 33 for Georgetown Thursday morning & 32 here in Wharton.
Hope you get some rain this weekend. Rain seems lately to be either north of I-10 and Hwy 1*5 or south. Rarely both. We had an inch, so sending some wet stuff your way.
Give me at least an inch and I’ll be satisfied for a couple weeks.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 5:03 pmHope you get some rain this weekend. Rain seems lately to be either north of I-10 and Hwy 1*5 or south. Rarely both. We had an inch, so sending some wet stuff your way.
53°F with a DP is 28°F and it's raining. Nice saturated mid to upper layer with thunder.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
A decidedly cool and dry day has prevailed across SE TX this
afternoon, thanks in large part to the presence of robust surface
high pressure to our north and a northeast surface wind. 3 PM
observations indicate high temperatures thus far in the mid to
upper 50s, with surface dew points sitting generally in the 20s.
Increasing cloud cover is expected across the area tonight as
850mb winds shift to the south, increasing the supply of midlevel
moisture. This should moderate overnight lows somewhat compared to
last night, with the far northern zones in the low 40s to upper
30s, Metro Houston in the mid 40s, and the immediate coast in the
upper 40s to near 50.
Rain returns to the forecast on Saturday as a weak coastal low
continues to push northward along the Middle TX coast and
eventually towards the SE TX coastline by tomorrow afternoon. The
resultant shift to an onshore wind regime and increase in total
PWs to upwards of 1.5 in along with the approach of a midlevel
trough from the NW should invigorate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area. This setup should provide
measurable rain for a significant portion of the area, but limited
instability (HREF ensemble mean CAPE is below 500 J/kg area-wide)
should prevent widespread thunderstorm development. Rainfall
rates, per latest HREF guidance, also appear quite modest with
24-hour mean QPF below 0.5 in.
Temperature wise, daytime highs should once again sit in the 50s
thanks to increased cloud cover and intermittent rainfall.
Overnight lows will only be about 7-10 degF lower than highs as
widespread cloud cover and WAA blunt the impacts of radiative
cooling. Steady WAA by daybreak Sunday (normally the time of the
overnight low) could push temperatures into the low 60s along and
south of the I-10 corridor (i.e. warmer than Saturday afternoon`s
highs).
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Not a lot of changes to the Long Term from the previous package with
wet/stormy weather possible during the start of the week with clear-
ing/quieter weather for the middle to end of the week.
Widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms should be ongoing starting
Sun morning per the passage of a coastal trough of low pressure from
the SW to the NE. Favorable upper jet dynamics along with PWs rising
into the 1.5-1.8" range could produce some moderate to locally heavy
rains on Sun. In the wake of this system...look for onshore winds to
develop/strengthen across the region through Mon as low-level moist-
ure remains elevated. However, all of this should make for favorable
sea fog conditions over our bays/nearshore waters (maybe as early as
Sun night or) by Mon night.
The passage of another (weaker) short-wave across the Central Plains
will help to drag a cold front into/across the state on Mon. Chances
for rain should be limited for much of the CWA save for the southern
and coastal areas where deeper moisture is progged to linger for the
Mon night/Tues timeframe. By Tues night, as the upper pattern begins
to change (i.e. the large scale trough axis shifting east toward the
MS River), the developing NW flow aloft should make for a much drier
and cooler rest of the week. 41
&&
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
A decidedly cool and dry day has prevailed across SE TX this
afternoon, thanks in large part to the presence of robust surface
high pressure to our north and a northeast surface wind. 3 PM
observations indicate high temperatures thus far in the mid to
upper 50s, with surface dew points sitting generally in the 20s.
Increasing cloud cover is expected across the area tonight as
850mb winds shift to the south, increasing the supply of midlevel
moisture. This should moderate overnight lows somewhat compared to
last night, with the far northern zones in the low 40s to upper
30s, Metro Houston in the mid 40s, and the immediate coast in the
upper 40s to near 50.
Rain returns to the forecast on Saturday as a weak coastal low
continues to push northward along the Middle TX coast and
eventually towards the SE TX coastline by tomorrow afternoon. The
resultant shift to an onshore wind regime and increase in total
PWs to upwards of 1.5 in along with the approach of a midlevel
trough from the NW should invigorate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area. This setup should provide
measurable rain for a significant portion of the area, but limited
instability (HREF ensemble mean CAPE is below 500 J/kg area-wide)
should prevent widespread thunderstorm development. Rainfall
rates, per latest HREF guidance, also appear quite modest with
24-hour mean QPF below 0.5 in.
Temperature wise, daytime highs should once again sit in the 50s
thanks to increased cloud cover and intermittent rainfall.
Overnight lows will only be about 7-10 degF lower than highs as
widespread cloud cover and WAA blunt the impacts of radiative
cooling. Steady WAA by daybreak Sunday (normally the time of the
overnight low) could push temperatures into the low 60s along and
south of the I-10 corridor (i.e. warmer than Saturday afternoon`s
highs).
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Not a lot of changes to the Long Term from the previous package with
wet/stormy weather possible during the start of the week with clear-
ing/quieter weather for the middle to end of the week.
Widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms should be ongoing starting
Sun morning per the passage of a coastal trough of low pressure from
the SW to the NE. Favorable upper jet dynamics along with PWs rising
into the 1.5-1.8" range could produce some moderate to locally heavy
rains on Sun. In the wake of this system...look for onshore winds to
develop/strengthen across the region through Mon as low-level moist-
ure remains elevated. However, all of this should make for favorable
sea fog conditions over our bays/nearshore waters (maybe as early as
Sun night or) by Mon night.
The passage of another (weaker) short-wave across the Central Plains
will help to drag a cold front into/across the state on Mon. Chances
for rain should be limited for much of the CWA save for the southern
and coastal areas where deeper moisture is progged to linger for the
Mon night/Tues timeframe. By Tues night, as the upper pattern begins
to change (i.e. the large scale trough axis shifting east toward the
MS River), the developing NW flow aloft should make for a much drier
and cooler rest of the week. 41
&&
Exactly. Most of the rain ended up as verga, with a trace of wetness, but it did lower temps into the low to mid 40s.
That's what she... never mind.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 5:15 pmGive me at least an inch and I’ll be satisfied for a couple weeks.
It’s 46 degrees here at almost peak sunlight, pretty chilly.
Not much rain so far, 0.08”
The big blob to the west all morning fell apart at I-45.
Not much rain so far, 0.08”
The big blob to the west all morning fell apart at I-45.
Im juat messing you with my man! A potential major drought is not what anyonse needs. Hopefully we get some moderate rains this winter.
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