December 2024
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
So much for the rain today, ,, i knew that WPC rainfall outlook looked too good to be true, at least for my area, just light rain
Last edited by Stratton20 on Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I’m at the Brazos Town Center in Rosenberg now eating lunch and it’s raining pretty good over here currently.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:10 pm So much for the rain today, what a mega bust,, i knew that WPC rainfall outlook looked too good to be true
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Larry Cosgrove
Use the word "variability" when describing the weather pattern!
Despite the oncoming Arctic air mass in the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard in the near term, the reality of weather for the month is a number of storms, quick warm-ups, and transient cold intrusions. There are two key features you should be paying attention to. One is the vast heat ridge straddling the Greater Antilles. The other is the rather virulent storm track and associated jet streams across the Pacific Basin.
About the big subtropical high covering an area from southern Mexico through Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. This is -not- the much-talked-about "Southeast ridge" which, when present, will kill any and every chance for snow and cold east of the Rocky Mountains. Were this a stronger La Nina episode, and the core of the ridging were found over Florida and Georgia, ski resorts and snow removal companies in the eastern states would be contemplating bankruptcy. Should the positive height anomaly be forced south into the Caribbean Sea, which I think is possible a few times this winter, then better odds may exist for wintry conditions between the Interstate 75 and 95 corridors. We need to see blocking highs in Alaska, the Arctic Islands and Greenland to accentuate cold drainage too. There already has been such a scenario last week and now, but I can tell you with some certainty that type of configuration is likely gone for the next ten to fourteen days. This is a progressive upper air pattern, which favors moderation in temperature followed by precipitation events. Some will be major, A disturbance moving out of the south central states will renew snowfall in the Great Lakes and provide heavy rains and thunderstorms over the Deep South and Appalachia into the Eastern Seaboard.
So my advice on how to follow the winter outlook: similarity to 1966-67, 1995-96, and 2007-08, probably with somewhat milder temperatures from the High Plains to the East Coast. The dryness may return to Texas and Oklahoma by the start of spring, and you -will- see the occasional memorable cold shot to the right of the Continental Divide. But ignore the onslaught of predictions of either extreme, as the continuous cold should run along the northern tier of the USA and across the southern half of Canada. It will probably turn colder in much of the lower 48 states during the Christmas/New Year week and through early January, but the "Thaw" will arrive in the middle of next month.
Use the word "variability" when describing the weather pattern!
Despite the oncoming Arctic air mass in the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard in the near term, the reality of weather for the month is a number of storms, quick warm-ups, and transient cold intrusions. There are two key features you should be paying attention to. One is the vast heat ridge straddling the Greater Antilles. The other is the rather virulent storm track and associated jet streams across the Pacific Basin.
About the big subtropical high covering an area from southern Mexico through Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. This is -not- the much-talked-about "Southeast ridge" which, when present, will kill any and every chance for snow and cold east of the Rocky Mountains. Were this a stronger La Nina episode, and the core of the ridging were found over Florida and Georgia, ski resorts and snow removal companies in the eastern states would be contemplating bankruptcy. Should the positive height anomaly be forced south into the Caribbean Sea, which I think is possible a few times this winter, then better odds may exist for wintry conditions between the Interstate 75 and 95 corridors. We need to see blocking highs in Alaska, the Arctic Islands and Greenland to accentuate cold drainage too. There already has been such a scenario last week and now, but I can tell you with some certainty that type of configuration is likely gone for the next ten to fourteen days. This is a progressive upper air pattern, which favors moderation in temperature followed by precipitation events. Some will be major, A disturbance moving out of the south central states will renew snowfall in the Great Lakes and provide heavy rains and thunderstorms over the Deep South and Appalachia into the Eastern Seaboard.
So my advice on how to follow the winter outlook: similarity to 1966-67, 1995-96, and 2007-08, probably with somewhat milder temperatures from the High Plains to the East Coast. The dryness may return to Texas and Oklahoma by the start of spring, and you -will- see the occasional memorable cold shot to the right of the Continental Divide. But ignore the onslaught of predictions of either extreme, as the continuous cold should run along the northern tier of the USA and across the southern half of Canada. It will probably turn colder in much of the lower 48 states during the Christmas/New Year week and through early January, but the "Thaw" will arrive in the middle of next month.
Rain still all north 
Today was mostly a big nothing-burger here in League City. :/
Wintry mischief next week looks like a bust, as expected.
We might get a frost or two in CLL.
Before that, this weekend looks like rain up here. Would gladly sent the precip. down there.
We might get a frost or two in CLL.
Before that, this weekend looks like rain up here. Would gladly sent the precip. down there.
You haven't lived in College Station. You'd understand. lol Every summer features a massive drought.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
With the area of low pressure (and its associated warm front) contin-
uing to lift N/NE across SE TX this afternoon/evening, look for rain
chances to slowly taper off through the rest of the day. Moderate to
strong S/SE winds will prevail heading into the evening hours and we
could see some isolated WAA showers develop across the region before
it`s all said and done. But clouds are expected to linger heading in
to the overnight hours, and even with the light north winds develop-
ing in the wake of the exiting low...ceilings should be falling with
the relaxing gradient. The offshore flow (becoming more NE tomorrow)
will persist through tomorrow night and help to usher in much drier/
cooler air to SE TX.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s
north....mid 50s to around 60 for the central and southern counties.
Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s across the FA. Cooler temperatures
are on tap for tomorrow night with lows ranging from the mid 30s for
the Piney Woods...lower 40s from the Brazos Valley south to the I-10
corridor...mid and upper 40s across the Coastal Plains. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
Expecting Friday morning to start out quiet. As the day progresses and
on into the weekend, the coastal low/trough will organize to our south
and eventually move up the Texas coast. This storm system will bring
increasing chances of showers and possible thunderstorms to the area,
probably peaking in a Saturday night through Sunday evening time period.
The current alignment has the higher weekend rainfall totals near and
east of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 3 inches) and lower rainfall
totals west of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 2 inches), with locally
higher amounts possible across both areas. Monday should quiet down
as the day progresses with lingering rains coming to an end, generally
from west to east. The next cold front moves through the area Monday
night.
Temperatures will start on the cool side on Friday (highs in the 50s!)
then will begin warming up over the weekend. After another cool night
on Friday night (lows mainly in the 40s inland and 50s coast), Saturday`s
highs (50s/60s) will warm into 60s/70s on Sunday followed by the 70s
to maybe close to 80 on Monday. Low temperatures will also trend upward
with Saturday night in the 40s/50s and Sunday night in the 50s to around
60. Monday night`s front will cool us back down (40s/50s), and Tuesday`s
highs look to be mainly in the 60s. Just a heads up...a good chunk of
the area could see lows both Tuesday night and Wednesday night dipping
into the 30s. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
Messy, generally unfavorable aviation conditions anticipated for
the next 18-24 hours. Lingering pockets of -ra should persist for
the next 2-4 hours south of CXO. There`s a non-zero threat of an
isolated thunderstorm, though chances should mostly be
diminishing. IFR/LIFR conditions with low ceilings, drizzle and
fog will sag southward and into the metro and coastal areas
overnight and Thurs morning in association with a weak frontal
boundary and moisture trapped under a low inversion. Ceilings
should slowly lift, but only into MVFR range later in the
afternoon then perhaps VFR Thurs eveing as the depth of cooler air
increases. 46
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
With the area of low pressure (and its associated warm front) contin-
uing to lift N/NE across SE TX this afternoon/evening, look for rain
chances to slowly taper off through the rest of the day. Moderate to
strong S/SE winds will prevail heading into the evening hours and we
could see some isolated WAA showers develop across the region before
it`s all said and done. But clouds are expected to linger heading in
to the overnight hours, and even with the light north winds develop-
ing in the wake of the exiting low...ceilings should be falling with
the relaxing gradient. The offshore flow (becoming more NE tomorrow)
will persist through tomorrow night and help to usher in much drier/
cooler air to SE TX.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s
north....mid 50s to around 60 for the central and southern counties.
Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s across the FA. Cooler temperatures
are on tap for tomorrow night with lows ranging from the mid 30s for
the Piney Woods...lower 40s from the Brazos Valley south to the I-10
corridor...mid and upper 40s across the Coastal Plains. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
Expecting Friday morning to start out quiet. As the day progresses and
on into the weekend, the coastal low/trough will organize to our south
and eventually move up the Texas coast. This storm system will bring
increasing chances of showers and possible thunderstorms to the area,
probably peaking in a Saturday night through Sunday evening time period.
The current alignment has the higher weekend rainfall totals near and
east of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 3 inches) and lower rainfall
totals west of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 2 inches), with locally
higher amounts possible across both areas. Monday should quiet down
as the day progresses with lingering rains coming to an end, generally
from west to east. The next cold front moves through the area Monday
night.
Temperatures will start on the cool side on Friday (highs in the 50s!)
then will begin warming up over the weekend. After another cool night
on Friday night (lows mainly in the 40s inland and 50s coast), Saturday`s
highs (50s/60s) will warm into 60s/70s on Sunday followed by the 70s
to maybe close to 80 on Monday. Low temperatures will also trend upward
with Saturday night in the 40s/50s and Sunday night in the 50s to around
60. Monday night`s front will cool us back down (40s/50s), and Tuesday`s
highs look to be mainly in the 60s. Just a heads up...a good chunk of
the area could see lows both Tuesday night and Wednesday night dipping
into the 30s. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024
Messy, generally unfavorable aviation conditions anticipated for
the next 18-24 hours. Lingering pockets of -ra should persist for
the next 2-4 hours south of CXO. There`s a non-zero threat of an
isolated thunderstorm, though chances should mostly be
diminishing. IFR/LIFR conditions with low ceilings, drizzle and
fog will sag southward and into the metro and coastal areas
overnight and Thurs morning in association with a weak frontal
boundary and moisture trapped under a low inversion. Ceilings
should slowly lift, but only into MVFR range later in the
afternoon then perhaps VFR Thurs eveing as the depth of cooler air
increases. 46
Man, I’ll take rain whenever lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
576
FXUS64 KHGX 051141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Our active weather pattern continues, with a cold front now well
offshore, where it will stall out until the weekend. This will
give us a brief stretch of modestly cooler and drier air, but that
front will be back, drifting northward as a warm front Saturday
into Sunday, and more humid and rainy conditions will be back with
it. As the cycle continues, another cold front will move through,
gradually giving us drier conditions again next week. Things are
shifting around quickly, so here`s some key things to remember:
- Gusty northeast winds develop again today on the Gulf and
immediate coast. This means another rough day on the water and
beaches, with a small craft advisory beginning again this
afternoon and a rip current statement in place for Gulf beaches.
- As we repeat the cycle again, we`ll see rain chances begin to
move back in from the west late Friday, overspread the area and
persist through the weekend. Given recent rainfall and seasonal
soil conditions, there may be some potential for localized
flooding issues if heavy rain falls on vulnerable spots. On
Saturday, there is a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat
level 1 of 4) across the area. On Sunday, there is a slight risk
for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) east of Houston and
Lake Livingston, and a marginal risk across nearly all of the
rest of Southeast Texas.
- Colder air surges in behind the next cold front, bringing us
some of our coldest temperatures of the season early to middle
next week. Look for temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below
average at their coldest. Lows below freezing should be expected
for a couple mornings north of the Houston metro, though the
potential for freezing temps creeping into the metro itself at
this time appears largely limited to the northern suburbs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A cold front pushed through the region overnight and will stall well
offshore today. To our north, a ~1038MB sfc high is building south
over the northern plains. This high will push southeastward towards
the southern Mississippi River Valley. These features (and their
resulting LL flow) will result in a LL CAA regime over SE Texas
today. Despite the introduction of drier and colder air, fcst
soundings suggest a resiliently moist layer around 850MB that could
make it difficult to kick the clouds out of our region. Much of the
guidance keeps most of our region completely overcast through the
afternoon though there is some suggestion of afternoon clearing over
our northern counties. For now, we are going with more clouds than
sun with temperatures hovering in the mid/upper 50s in our northern
counties, upper 50s to low 60s near I-10, and low/mid 60s at the
coast. With enough clouds coupled with CAA, it wouldn`t surprise me
if afternoon temps end up a little cooler than predicted in some
areas.
Expect cold conditions tonight with lows falling into the 30s across
the northern half of the CWA and 40s farther south. Our northernmost
counties could find themselves under clearer skies tonight, opening
the door to efficient radiational cooling. If skies remain clear
enough, then a light freeze would be likely across our northern
Piney Woods counties. The chill continues into Friday with forecast
afternoon highs in the 50s. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests our
northern counties will struggle to reach 50. Though NE flow should
hold at the sfc, the flow aloft should shift to onshore, eventually
thickening the overcast. Rain chances will increase as well.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible by Friday afternoon,
especially over our western counties. Rain chances increases further
by Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Train keeps a rollin` on this active pattern, right on through the
long term period. Saturday looks cool and relatively dreary, with
plenty of cloud cover along with on and off showers north of a
developing coastal trough/warm front (sounds familiar, don`t it?).
There may be a stray lightning strike here and there, but
thunderstorms really should be largely confined to the south side
of the front where warmer and more unstable air resides.
Sunday may be more active as the front lifts north through the
area, and dewpoints surge back up well above 60 degrees. This
should also result in better thunderstorm potential, and the
juicier Gulf airmass should result in somewhat increased rain
rates as well. We`ll have ample moisture to work with, as
precipitable water rises above 1.5 inches and the 97th percentile
near the coast and east of Houston in the GEFS ensemble mean, and
nearing the 97th percentile in the Euro ensemble mean.
Now, void of context, PWATs a little over 1.5 inches with fairly
progressive rains expected wouldn`t cause me to blink an eye...and
these are definitely mitigating factors. But also, we had rain
yesterday, and can expect more light to moderate showers Saturday,
priming the ground for the round of heavier rainfall.
Additionally, integrated vapor transport numbers in the ensemble
systems are in the 97th to 99th percentile range, which implies
that we`re cranking in a good chunk of that moisture in a short
stretch fueling higher rain rates. Also, it`s December, not
June...seasonally speaking, soil conditions are typically less
receptive to heavy rainfall in the cold season. And, while, this
hasn`t been the coldest of cold seasons yet, we do tend to see
more of a runoff response in December. Because of this, WPC`s
guidance in their days 3 and 4 excessive rain outlooks looks
cautious, but entirely reasonable. These outlooks place a
marginal risk for excessive rain area-wide Saturday and a slight
risk east of Houston/Lake Livingston on Sunday (plus a marginal
risk almost everywhere else in the area).
Beyond the weekend into next week, we look for what happens beyond
a quick 1-2 punch of cold fronts. The first will be a focusing
factor for the rains discussed above, but with little impact
beyond that. The reinforcing front, however, leads a relatively
beefy high pressure cell dropping in from Canada. The LREF
ensemble mean MSLP for this high is right around 1040 mb. Even the
10th percentile MSLP is 1035 mb! Granted, I don`t expect that the
actual probability distribution is quite this narrow - I expect
even this multi-ensemble ensemble has some dispersion issues here.
But even qualitatively, this is a pretty strong signal for colder
air dropping in.
How much colder? Well, very likely the coldest air of the season
so far (again, yes, it hasn`t been so cold this fall/winter, so
that`s not a high bar. But still...). NBM probability for reaching
the freezing mark early on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are now
up in the 85-90 percent range way up at Crockett in Houston
County. Probabilities above 30 percent push down to around I-10 in
the rural areas east and west of the Houston metro. As for the
metro itself? Probably less concern here. IAH peaks at a 13
percent chance for freezing temps. Downtown and Hobby are both
around or less than 5 percent. The heat island wins this time! But
those numbers do increase fairly rapidly up into the northern
suburbs and exurbs of the metro. Tomball and Conroe have freezing
mark probabilities of 45 and 30 percent, respectively.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Vis and cigs should gradually improve today while winds increase
from the northeast. However, it could take until the afternoon or
potentially the evening before most locations return to VFR
conditions. The next few hours should feature a mix of IFR/LIFR
conditions before slowly improving to MVFR later this morning
into the afternoon. Conditions will improve from north to south.
Therefore, areas near the coast have the best chance to remain sub
VFR through the entire day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A cold front has pushed off the coast overnight, and is now making
its way over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In its wake, we`ll
see increasingly strong and gusty winds out of the north to
northeast winds building seas back up after a very brief lull.
Over the weekend, northeast to east winds will swing around to the
southeast and south and strengthen. Seas will remain elevated,
and also look for increasing shower and storm coverage, especially
Saturday night through Sunday night. Fog is possible too as
warmer, humid air returns over the cooler waters.
A weak front means lower rain chances but otherwise not much other
change beyond more southwesterly winds Monday through Monday
evening. A stronger cold front moves across the area sometime
Monday night, and will again feature strong northeast winds and
building seas in its wake. With this active pattern, caution
flags and small craft advisories can be expected through much of
this forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 39 54 42 / 20 0 20 40
Houston (IAH) 63 41 56 44 / 20 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 66 46 58 52 / 20 0 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday
for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 051141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Our active weather pattern continues, with a cold front now well
offshore, where it will stall out until the weekend. This will
give us a brief stretch of modestly cooler and drier air, but that
front will be back, drifting northward as a warm front Saturday
into Sunday, and more humid and rainy conditions will be back with
it. As the cycle continues, another cold front will move through,
gradually giving us drier conditions again next week. Things are
shifting around quickly, so here`s some key things to remember:
- Gusty northeast winds develop again today on the Gulf and
immediate coast. This means another rough day on the water and
beaches, with a small craft advisory beginning again this
afternoon and a rip current statement in place for Gulf beaches.
- As we repeat the cycle again, we`ll see rain chances begin to
move back in from the west late Friday, overspread the area and
persist through the weekend. Given recent rainfall and seasonal
soil conditions, there may be some potential for localized
flooding issues if heavy rain falls on vulnerable spots. On
Saturday, there is a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat
level 1 of 4) across the area. On Sunday, there is a slight risk
for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) east of Houston and
Lake Livingston, and a marginal risk across nearly all of the
rest of Southeast Texas.
- Colder air surges in behind the next cold front, bringing us
some of our coldest temperatures of the season early to middle
next week. Look for temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below
average at their coldest. Lows below freezing should be expected
for a couple mornings north of the Houston metro, though the
potential for freezing temps creeping into the metro itself at
this time appears largely limited to the northern suburbs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A cold front pushed through the region overnight and will stall well
offshore today. To our north, a ~1038MB sfc high is building south
over the northern plains. This high will push southeastward towards
the southern Mississippi River Valley. These features (and their
resulting LL flow) will result in a LL CAA regime over SE Texas
today. Despite the introduction of drier and colder air, fcst
soundings suggest a resiliently moist layer around 850MB that could
make it difficult to kick the clouds out of our region. Much of the
guidance keeps most of our region completely overcast through the
afternoon though there is some suggestion of afternoon clearing over
our northern counties. For now, we are going with more clouds than
sun with temperatures hovering in the mid/upper 50s in our northern
counties, upper 50s to low 60s near I-10, and low/mid 60s at the
coast. With enough clouds coupled with CAA, it wouldn`t surprise me
if afternoon temps end up a little cooler than predicted in some
areas.
Expect cold conditions tonight with lows falling into the 30s across
the northern half of the CWA and 40s farther south. Our northernmost
counties could find themselves under clearer skies tonight, opening
the door to efficient radiational cooling. If skies remain clear
enough, then a light freeze would be likely across our northern
Piney Woods counties. The chill continues into Friday with forecast
afternoon highs in the 50s. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests our
northern counties will struggle to reach 50. Though NE flow should
hold at the sfc, the flow aloft should shift to onshore, eventually
thickening the overcast. Rain chances will increase as well.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible by Friday afternoon,
especially over our western counties. Rain chances increases further
by Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Train keeps a rollin` on this active pattern, right on through the
long term period. Saturday looks cool and relatively dreary, with
plenty of cloud cover along with on and off showers north of a
developing coastal trough/warm front (sounds familiar, don`t it?).
There may be a stray lightning strike here and there, but
thunderstorms really should be largely confined to the south side
of the front where warmer and more unstable air resides.
Sunday may be more active as the front lifts north through the
area, and dewpoints surge back up well above 60 degrees. This
should also result in better thunderstorm potential, and the
juicier Gulf airmass should result in somewhat increased rain
rates as well. We`ll have ample moisture to work with, as
precipitable water rises above 1.5 inches and the 97th percentile
near the coast and east of Houston in the GEFS ensemble mean, and
nearing the 97th percentile in the Euro ensemble mean.
Now, void of context, PWATs a little over 1.5 inches with fairly
progressive rains expected wouldn`t cause me to blink an eye...and
these are definitely mitigating factors. But also, we had rain
yesterday, and can expect more light to moderate showers Saturday,
priming the ground for the round of heavier rainfall.
Additionally, integrated vapor transport numbers in the ensemble
systems are in the 97th to 99th percentile range, which implies
that we`re cranking in a good chunk of that moisture in a short
stretch fueling higher rain rates. Also, it`s December, not
June...seasonally speaking, soil conditions are typically less
receptive to heavy rainfall in the cold season. And, while, this
hasn`t been the coldest of cold seasons yet, we do tend to see
more of a runoff response in December. Because of this, WPC`s
guidance in their days 3 and 4 excessive rain outlooks looks
cautious, but entirely reasonable. These outlooks place a
marginal risk for excessive rain area-wide Saturday and a slight
risk east of Houston/Lake Livingston on Sunday (plus a marginal
risk almost everywhere else in the area).
Beyond the weekend into next week, we look for what happens beyond
a quick 1-2 punch of cold fronts. The first will be a focusing
factor for the rains discussed above, but with little impact
beyond that. The reinforcing front, however, leads a relatively
beefy high pressure cell dropping in from Canada. The LREF
ensemble mean MSLP for this high is right around 1040 mb. Even the
10th percentile MSLP is 1035 mb! Granted, I don`t expect that the
actual probability distribution is quite this narrow - I expect
even this multi-ensemble ensemble has some dispersion issues here.
But even qualitatively, this is a pretty strong signal for colder
air dropping in.
How much colder? Well, very likely the coldest air of the season
so far (again, yes, it hasn`t been so cold this fall/winter, so
that`s not a high bar. But still...). NBM probability for reaching
the freezing mark early on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are now
up in the 85-90 percent range way up at Crockett in Houston
County. Probabilities above 30 percent push down to around I-10 in
the rural areas east and west of the Houston metro. As for the
metro itself? Probably less concern here. IAH peaks at a 13
percent chance for freezing temps. Downtown and Hobby are both
around or less than 5 percent. The heat island wins this time! But
those numbers do increase fairly rapidly up into the northern
suburbs and exurbs of the metro. Tomball and Conroe have freezing
mark probabilities of 45 and 30 percent, respectively.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Vis and cigs should gradually improve today while winds increase
from the northeast. However, it could take until the afternoon or
potentially the evening before most locations return to VFR
conditions. The next few hours should feature a mix of IFR/LIFR
conditions before slowly improving to MVFR later this morning
into the afternoon. Conditions will improve from north to south.
Therefore, areas near the coast have the best chance to remain sub
VFR through the entire day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A cold front has pushed off the coast overnight, and is now making
its way over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In its wake, we`ll
see increasingly strong and gusty winds out of the north to
northeast winds building seas back up after a very brief lull.
Over the weekend, northeast to east winds will swing around to the
southeast and south and strengthen. Seas will remain elevated,
and also look for increasing shower and storm coverage, especially
Saturday night through Sunday night. Fog is possible too as
warmer, humid air returns over the cooler waters.
A weak front means lower rain chances but otherwise not much other
change beyond more southwesterly winds Monday through Monday
evening. A stronger cold front moves across the area sometime
Monday night, and will again feature strong northeast winds and
building seas in its wake. With this active pattern, caution
flags and small craft advisories can be expected through much of
this forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 39 54 42 / 20 0 20 40
Houston (IAH) 63 41 56 44 / 20 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 66 46 58 52 / 20 0 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday
for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
This is OT but some major news on the weather modeling front.
The fact that this is open source is truly game-changing. Expect all sorts of new toys on the horizon.
https://chromeunboxed.com/googles-new-g ... lowing-ai/
The fact that this is open source is truly game-changing. Expect all sorts of new toys on the horizon.
https://chromeunboxed.com/googles-new-g ... lowing-ai/
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
IFR ceilings will continue to improve to mostly MVFR for most termin-
als this afternoon...with the exceptions being CLL/UTS/CXO. NNE winds
are also expected to pick and become gusty through the afternoon (11-
17kts/G20-25kts). These strong near-surface winds are progged to con-
tinue for several hours after sunset, so there`s a chance for a brief
period of LLWS after the inversion sets up (00-04Z). However, there`s
a good chance that this speed shear will remain below TAF thresholds,
so no mention at this time. Otherwise, look for decreased winds along
with mostly VFR ceilings tonight/overnight. 41
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
IFR ceilings will continue to improve to mostly MVFR for most termin-
als this afternoon...with the exceptions being CLL/UTS/CXO. NNE winds
are also expected to pick and become gusty through the afternoon (11-
17kts/G20-25kts). These strong near-surface winds are progged to con-
tinue for several hours after sunset, so there`s a chance for a brief
period of LLWS after the inversion sets up (00-04Z). However, there`s
a good chance that this speed shear will remain below TAF thresholds,
so no mention at this time. Otherwise, look for decreased winds along
with mostly VFR ceilings tonight/overnight. 41
It's forecast to get to the mid 20's over here tonight.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
We'll see. It will probably work as well as Siri. I saw 3 "Siri traffic jams" last weekend, where Siri "shortcuts" resulted in cars lined up and stuck like Field of Dreams. loljasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:09 am This is OT but some major news on the weather modeling front.
The fact that this is open source is truly game-changing. Expect all sorts of new toys on the horizon.
https://chromeunboxed.com/googles-new-g ... lowing-ai/
We got caught in another Siri traffic jam on I-35W toward DFW. On the follow-up trip I ignored Siri (usual mode) and relied on the map in my head and experience from DFW airport, hit George Bush Tollroad to I-20 to I-45. Absolute gold - skirted most of the traffic.
Their Ensembles provide "cover" on being wrong.
CMC and GEPS are still holding out hope of a freeze in a week.
This weekend looks like a washout. I had hope now that the weather is finally cooler to repair some clear coat failure on our Civic. We're driving up to Arkansas on Sunday. It should be wet all the way there.
We did receive about an inch of rain. The lawn's mostly brown now anyway due to frosts and brown patch. Probably another inch or two during the weekend. We'll be missing some nice weather early in the week. Naturally, the next storms will be the following weekend!
I hope it rains really hard and you go outside and get drenched all over. Then you come back inside your house and get everything wet.
I’m in a moderate drought with the threat of a major drought happening this summer and people wanna talk sh*t towards me about wanting rain. Makes sense.
Next Thursday morning might flirt with freezing. Looks to be a close call right now.
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