December 2024

[Cpv17]

Tireman, I just saw Liberty’s QB is transferring.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yes it would, the EPS 12z run had some snow even for CS, that would be fun, but knowing the models, it will probably be 80 degrees on the run lol

[Ptarmigan]

Wintry precipitation in December is rare, but not unheard of. There was a big freezing rain event in December 1924. If it happened today, it would likely shut down the city.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

[tireman4]

Tireman, I just saw Liberty’s QB is transferring.

Yep, he is. He did last year and tested the waters. I think he is almost certainly gone this year. We wee just were not a good team this year. I wish him well

[DoctorMu]

Wintry precipitation in December is rare, but not unheard of. There was a big freezing rain event in December 1924. If it happened today, it would likely shut down the city.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

Christmas Eve 2004 - 20 years ago. See my avatar! We drove down from B/CS to Houston to see it. Massive and rapidly accumulating snow. We were driving on Gessner near my wife's brother's house. Then, just blocks away, the thermostat sticks on our Dodge Caravan, and the car overheats in less than 30 sec., blowing out the #1 cylinder. There is literally just one gas station open, so we roll in and I take the kids to brother in law's house. Unbelievable - you can't make this up. By the time we get there, there are 3-4" of snow on the ground. The first time they experienced snow.

That's the last American vehicle I've purchased.

[Cpv17]

Wintry precipitation in December is rare, but not unheard of. There was a big freezing rain event in December 1924. If it happened today, it would likely shut down the city.

Historical Annotated Review Of Winter Kills Of Marine organisms In Texas Bays
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwd ... MDS118.pdf

Southeast Texas has Rough Winters too! (January 2013)
https://www.sfasu.edu/heritagecenter/6986.asp

Climatic Guide for Houston-Galveston, Texas Area
https://books.google.com/books?id=56lhL ... on&f=false

Christmas Eve 2004 - 20 years ago. See my avatar! We drove down from B/CS to Houston to see it. Massive and rapidly accumulating snow. We were driving on Gessner near my wife's brother's house. Then, just blocks away, the thermostat sticks on our Dodge Caravan, and the car overheats in less than 30 sec., blowing out the #1 cylinder. There is literally just one gas station open, so we roll in and I take the kids to brother in law's house. Unbelievable - you can't make this up. By the time we get there, there are 3-4" of snow on the ground. The first time they experienced snow.

That's the last American vehicle I've purchased.

I didn’t get any snow here in Feb 21. All 3 snow events I’ve seen in my life here have occurred in December. 04, 09, & 17.

[Stratton20]

Very close call on the CMC 00z for snow/sleet in houston, temps just barely above freezing (33-35) with precipitation falling, the setup late next week looks very interesting with a shortwave digging out west in response to the SE ridge

[Cpv17]

Aggies just flipped a 5 star OT from Missouri. That’ll take a lil sting off from this weekends loss.

[jasons2k]

That game turned-out to be a total letdown. All that hype for the big rivalry to return and we got that turd of a football game

Looking forward to the upcoming rain. We need it.

Beware winter storms modeled in the long range, especially the GFS. Lucy loves to lurk this time of year.

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season.

[Stratton20]

Could get cold again late next week, CPC just issued this

[Brazoriatx979]

Could get cold again late next week, CPC just issued this

they left out excessive heat warning lol jk

[DoctorMu]

CMC, Euro, EPS Ensemble, GEPS Ensemble calling for a strong FROPA around Dec 12. GFS has a bust.

Until then, we have a partly cloudy, mild day today followed by a warm front then Pacific FROPA tomorrow and showers. I don't expect large accumulation. We get a break on Thursday before unsettle weather and troughs moving through on Friday through the weekend. Looks like a sunny day on Monday waiting for the Godot arctic front.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

The forecast for SE TX will continue to feature changes with over-
all pattern as rain returns to the forecast. Surface high pressure
continuing to move east across the SE CONUS will allow for veering
winds from the E to SE tonight. Aloft, an increasingly SW flow has
helped to draw moisture/clouds into the area from the W/SW. All of
this will be setting the stage for widespread scattered POPs head-
ing into tomorrow with the development and track of a surface low/
its associated warm front from the Gulf waters. PWs are progged to
surge into the 1.6-1.8" range through tomorrow but instability may
be limited as clouds linger. This should result in mostly scatter-
ed showers and isolated thunderstorms.

In the meantime, look for increasing clouds and isolated to widely
scattered rain to move in from the W/SW through tonight. Overnight
lows will be a bit warmer...with temperatures ranging from the mid
and upper 40s across the Piney Woods to the mid and upper 50s over
the rest of the CWA. Warmer more humid conditions are expected to-
morrow with the warm front; with highs from the lower 60s over the
far N/NE counties to the lower and mid 70s elsewhere. Rain chances
should be decreasing by tomorrow night with lows in the mid 50s to
around 60. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

The cold front will be off the coast Thursday morning, but lingering
moisture is expected to persist. Will continue to indicate lowering
rain chances from north to south as the day progresses, with rain/showers
generally inland and rain/showers and isolated thunderstorms near and
off the coast. This general pattern will continue heading on into the
Thursday night through Friday time period with surface high pressure
centered off to our north helping to keep the area on the cool side
(little to no rain chances in/around our far eastern counties and better
and gradually increasing rain chances the closer you get to our western
counties and especially in/around the Matagorda Bay area. Beginning
Friday night and especially over the weekend, the southwest flow aloft
increases/deepens as a mid/upper level low to our west lifts out. This
flow in combination with the old cold front working its way back to
the north, another coastal low/trough and precipitable water values
surging back >1.50 inches will bring increasing rain coverage to the
area. All of southeast Texas looks to get wet with this storm system
with general amounts (Friday night thru Sunday night) ranging from
1 to 2 inches west to 2 to 4 inches central and east, with the higher
amounts near the coast, in/around the Galveston Bay area and offshore.
Look for adjustments to these numbers as the rest of the week progresses.
Lowering rain chances can be expected on Monday.

Temperatures will be up and down through this period. The cold front
of the coast Thursday morning means Thursday`s highs will be mainly
in the 60s. The coolest night follows with Friday morning`s lows ranging
from the low to mid 30s way up north (in/around the Houston County and
Crockett area) to the low to mid 40s inland to close to 50 at the coast.
Look for Friday to not warm up a whole lot with highs ranging from the
upper 40s to around 50 in that way up north area to right around 60
at the coast. After another cool night on Friday night (mainly 40s),
the weekend will have a warming trend with highs by Sunday back up into
the 60s and 70s.

42

&&

[Kludge]

Well I finally made it back to Conroe... after a long stint in the sticks.

I am quite LaDubious about the Lucy-based forecast upcoming arctic blast. It would be fun to see how the new place looks in a dusting of snow... but January hopes still exist.

[jasons2k]

Well I finally made it back to Conroe... after a long stint in the sticks.

I am quite LaDubious about the Lucy-based forecast upcoming arctic blast. It would be fun to see how the new place looks in a dusting of snow... but January hopes still exist.

What brings you back? And welcome back to civilization!
My sister recently moved back to Conroe from Bedias as well.

[jasons2k]

Lots of rain and thunderstorms north of here. Thought it was supposed to be mostly offshore. I haven’t been paying much attention but wasn’t expecting the radar to look like that today.

[tireman4]

806
FXUS64 KHGX 041137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

This morning we find ourselves in the "warm front lifting
northward" portion of the winter frontal cycle, which means
increasing humidity, rain and some thunderstorm potential, as well
as some patchy sea fog...at least until a cold front puts all that
to an end late tonight and we begin the cycle anew. Some key
points for the forecast:

- Though risk for a severe thunderstorm is minimal (less than 5
percent), it`s probably not quite zero either as the environment
today could support some modest storm organization. Should any
storm manage to pull itself together today, the main threat
would be gusty winds.
- Similarly, potential for excessive rain is also minimal (less
than 5 percent). We could see some totals start to pile up into
the 2-3 inch range gradually near the Gulf Coast. However, rain
rates are expected to be low enough that even that rainfall
should be manageable. Elsewhere, lower rainfall totals are
anticipated from light to moderate showers/storms.
- Marine conditions remain fairly rough today as the front lifts
northward. A small craft advisory is in place into the afternoon
on the Gulf waters, and small craft should also exercise caution
on the bays. Additionally, as warmer, more humid air moves over
the relatively cooler waters, we could see some patchy fog
develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

An area of low pressure and its associated warm front will lift
northward from the Gulf and into SE Texas today, bringing a surge of
warmer and more moisture rich air to the region. This will result in
a good chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms. LL
instability should increase as the sfc air mass becomes warmer and
more humid. The question is, how unstable will it get? HREF means
aren`t too impressed, showing 250-500 J/kg sfc CAPE. But the HRRR
seems to think the southern 2/3rds of the CWA could reach 500-1000
J/kg. Given the 30-35 kts SSW 850MB jet that will be enhancing LL
shear, we cannot rule out a strong gusty thunderstorm or two. For
now, the Storm Prediction Center does not have us under a risk of
severe thunderstorms since the set up is marginally favorable at
best. But it`s something we will be monitoring today. Otherwise,
expect a warmer, breezier, and more humid day with a good chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Afternoon highs should warm into
the low/mid 70s south of the warm front. Could see a few spots reach
the upper 70s. Our northernmost areas may remain north of the
boundary. There, highs are only expected to reach the low/mid 60s.

Meanwhile to our north, a ~1040MB sfc high pressure system is
building southward from Canada into the northern plains. The
resulting surge of dense colder air will eventually push today`s low
pressure system and associated boundaries back to the south tonight
into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately for the sunshine lovers,
conditions are not expected to clear behind the front. Fcst
soundings keep conditions pretty moist at 850MB. Therefore, our
forecast calls for a mostly cloudy day along with a lingering chance
of showers across our southern and coastal counties. Enhanced NE sfc
flow will place the region in a CAA regime. I generally went cooler
than most of the guidance by having afternoon highs range from
around 60 in our northern counties to low/mid 60s in Houston to
upper 60s at the coast. Despite my forecast being cooler than most
of the guidance, the HRRR suggests I could drop Thursday afternoon`s
temps another 5-7 degrees. Woudln`t surprise me if forecast temps
tomorrow trends cooler. The chance of sweater weather grows...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

For the long term, we could just about run back the short term
discussion, with the particular days tweaked to match up with the
next run through the cycle. We`ll be in the wake of the cold front
discussed above to start the period, which will gradually give way
to more a more marine airmass into the weekend. A new coastal
trough/low gets formed up Friday night and its warm front lifts
northward, giving us a bit of a warming trend through the
weekend...but also trading in some messier weather. Rain, a few
embedded thunderstorms in the warm sector, and some patchy sea fog
are all back on the table.

Here`s where things look like it might be a bit different, but
it`s really more a subtlety to the forecast. A weak front looks to
make its way through Sunday night or early Monday. This will begin
to wind down rain chances, but outside of that, we may not notice
much difference. This boundary is attached to a weakening low way
up over Canada. We don`t even look to see much of a wind shift
here. The real show in this pattern looks to be with the next
front, following closely behind Monday night into Tuesday. This
will be attached to a noticeably stronger low that isn`t in the
process of dissipating farther south over the Great Lakes. It will
be supported by the next in a strong of upper shortwave troughs
(and then reinforced by yet another one behind it). This will
finally turn winds northerly and shove a colder, drier airmass
into Southeast Texas. But that brings us to the end of the
forecast period, so more on the post-frontal situation in the days
to come. (Spoiler alert: it`s December, expect it to get
chillier).

I am a little more confident in getting into some of the specifics
that I had zero interest in discussing last night. Deterministic
model guidance has come together significantly in the medium
range, and really seemed to do so in a way that lined up with the
multi-model ensemble mean fairly well. Which is to say, straying
from the NBM mostly just to enhance the sharpness of fronts, still
looks like the way to go for now. Indeed, the cluster analysis
says similar things today that it did last night. Broad picture,
still looks pretty clear - some of those defining details the
farther we get out in the forecast range get fuzzier and fuzzier
the farther you look out there, though.

One thing of note at the very, very far end and just beyond the
end of the forecast period: NBM probabilities for freezing temps
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning are the highest of the whole
stretch following the cold front. A 30-50 percent chance for
reaching the freezing mark pushes all the way down to the northern
Houston suburbs that night. At Day 7/8, that`s something that I`m
taking note of as something to analyze more deeply in the coming
days. For now...let`s just call it a strong signal that yes, it
is indeed winter and not speculate on it much more than that.
Plenty of time to puzzle this one out yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

There is high confidence that today will feature SHRA, iso to sct
TSRA, lower cigs/vis, and increasing winds from the SE. Confidence
is a little lower regarding the exact timing of all these things.
So keep this in mind when reading this morning`s TAFs. Cigs should
drop this morning as SHRA/TSRA activity moves in from the SW. Vis
is expected to drop in some areas as well. Couldn`t rule out
locally heavy thunderstorms with localized higher winds. For now,
the highest TSRA wind gusts indicated in any TAF is 25-30 knots.
But we will monitor radar trends closely for potential amendments.
Periods of IFR conditions are possible today. But the highest
chance of more widespread IFR is later this afternoon/evening and
especially by tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A small craft advisory continues through mid-afternoon for the
Gulf waters due to moderate to strong east winds and elevated
seas. Small craft should also exercise caution on the bays due to
the winds as well. Winds will become more southeasterly to
southerly through the day today as a coastal trough and warm front
move across the waters. This will also introduce rain chances, as
well as some potential for patchy sea fog. Should any fog
develop, it is not likely to be dense. A cold front moves off the
coast Thursday morning with strong north to northeast winds
developing in its wake. Moderate east to southeast winds will
return over the weekend ahead of the next storm system.

At the shore, a rip current advisory is also in place for a high
probability of dangerous rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 54 62 41 / 80 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 70 58 64 43 / 90 60 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 61 67 48 / 90 80 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

[tireman4]

Interesting take this morning..

At Day 7/8, that`s something that I`m
taking note of as something to analyze more deeply in the coming
days. For now...let`s just call it a strong signal that yes, it
is indeed winter and not speculate on it much more than that.
Plenty of time to puzzle this one out yet.

[Kludge]

Well I finally made it back to Conroe... after a long stint in the sticks.

I am quite LaDubious about the Lucy-based forecast upcoming arctic blast. It would be fun to see how the new place looks in a dusting of snow... but January hopes still exist.

What brings you back? And welcome back to civilization!
My sister recently moved back to Conroe from Bedias as well.

I brought my wonderful cheesehead wife for her first boatride on the lake, and she fell in love. After a year of trying to sell our ranch and searching for the perfect lakefront, it all finally came together. I have always loved the Walden area.

[JDsGN]

Lots of rain and thunderstorms north of here. Thought it was supposed to be mostly offshore. I haven’t been paying much attention but wasn’t expecting the radar to look like that today.

Same. I just watched KPRCs video forecast with their futurecast from 830 this morning showing lots of storms filling in south of I10 near Brazoria County around noon, but the radar doesn't resemble it at all.