October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

[redneckweather]

Yea but the question is, will it make it down here? Man, I sure hope so! My area is taking a beating....DRY DRY DRY!

[Mr. T]

Yea but the question is, will it make it down here? Man, I sure hope so! My area is taking a beating....DRY DRY DRY!

The energy associated with this area of thunderstorms is just too far away to help break the cap around the area and initiate good thunderstorm activity. I don't think we'll see much tonight, if anything.

Next week's front is looking much drier as well, and IAH stands a good chance to go the entire month of October without a drop of rain, which I honestly didn't think was possible

[txflagwaver]

Getting a nice little shower here...FINALLY!

[biggerbyte]

Same here in Porter. That knocked out the no rain in October for my area at least.

[kayci]

I haven't mowed my lawn in about three weeks, it hasn't grown and looks like a tinder box. Texas City sure could use the wet stuff.

[svrwx0503]

Next week's front is looking much drier as well, and IAH stands a good chance to go the entire month of October without a drop of rain, which I honestly didn't think was possible

I think the lack of any real good moisture return is the main reason we have been so dry lately. Yes, there has been the return to a rather persistent cap aloft and the fact that most of the dynamics have managed to stay up to our north, but we have seen weaker s/w's move through and with the lack of any real deep moisture to work with, it has limited our overall instability and therefore any notable shower and thunderstorm activity. Even during past droughts during the summer, sometimes with enough daytime heating a deep moisture, thunderstorms have managed to develop and drop some much needed rain, sometimes rather unexpectedly.

Check out the two links below...One is the current Saharan air layer analysis which shows a ton of dry air, especially over the central and western gulf and the other link is a current water vapor sat image showing pretty much the same thing. Indeed, we have seen a week of a rather strong return flow off the gulf, but there just isn't much moisture out there, and with the La Nina pattern in place, the subtropical jet stream hasn't been able to bring in any Pacific moisture either. The result is an extremely dry October.

Saharan Air Layer
http://weather.xonelabs.com/m8g10split.jpg

Water Vapor Imagery
http://weather.xonelabs.com/gulfdry.png

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS says no rain (maybe a sprinkle) with the cold front on Wednesday night/Thursday...

[Andrew]

I am loving the temps though. The drought condition continues to worsen and no end is in sight. The thing that always seems to happen though is we have a flood to reverse the trends.

[svrwx0503]

It is looking more and more like the Wed/Thu front won't be able to produce much if any measurable precip across the region as models continue to trend drier, with PW's lucky to reach around 1.4-1.5 inches right along the frontal boundary. Model cross sections confirm this as they only show a very shallow moist layer (only from the surface to about 850mb with it very dry above that) and very shallow lift along the frontal boundary. The only good news is that it is looking like we will see a return to cooler temps with overnight low now forecast to fall into the mid-upper 40os across a good portion of southeast Texas.

Looking ahead into the first week of November, medium range progs suggest another frontal passage will be possible around next Tuesday (11/2) with possibly some slightly high moisture levels we might be able to squeeze out a shower, especially east of I-45.

[srainhoutx]

Noteworthy is the big cyclonic storm ramping up across the CONUS. I've seen mention of some notable storms of the past on various boards. Winds across a large portion of the Country are going to be extremely gusty...

[svrwx0503]

What is interesting about this cyclone is that it is not going to be bringing down a significantly colder air-mass in its wake. Talking with some more experienced meteorologists in the office...a forecaster looking at this type of setup would, based off pattern recognition likely expect a much colder Canadian air-mass to settle down into the northern and central plains in its wake; however this time, only a moderately cooler, mainly Pacific based air-mass will invade the northern plains.

The main reason for the rapid deepening of the surface low forecast by models will be in response to the extremely strong 175kt+ jet streaming in from the Pacific northwest across the Rockies and into the western plains. The very strong upper level divergence found in the right front quadrant of the jet streak across far nw Kansas, western Nebraska, and South Dakota will cause a lot of mass to be evacuated in the upper levels, meaning in order to restore balance, the atmosphere will respond by increasing the low level convergence found towards the center of the surface low. The more upper level divergence you have over a surface low, the deeper the low will become before weakening as it moves northeast away from the jet streak.

Now these systems aren't very uncommon during the spring and fall, it will sure be very windy across the northern plains tomorrow and tomorrow night with severe weather across the Ohio valley. With the very strong winds that will located just above the surface, it will not take a strong storm to bring that damaging wind down to the surface which is why the SPC has gone with a moderate risk tomorrow across the mid-west and the Ohio valley. Look for wind damage to be widespread tomorrow afternoon and evening in the aforementioned areas.

[TexasMetBlake]

On a side note, there are now Blizzard Warnings in effect for North Dakota. That has to be some kind of record for earliest blizzard warning or something. Looks like Thursday's front (cough, my birthday) will be dropping us down into the lower to mid 40s. What a birthday treat!

[srainhoutx]

Cold front has passed College Station and dewpoints are falling rapidly behind the front...

[Ptarmigan]

We really need rain. If we don't get rain by October, this will be the driest October. This is one really dry fall due to La Nina.

[tireman4]

We really need rain. If we don't get rain by October, this will be the driest October. This is one really dry fall due to La Nina.

I think it is dry even by La Nina standards.

[Ptarmigan]

Top 10 Driest October
Trace 1934
0.01 1963
0.01 1944
0.02 1952
0.03 1889
0.05 1978
0.09 1948
0.17 1987
0.23 1961
0.28 1950

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_oct

How were the following month November like in the rainfall department?

Top 10 Driest October and November Rainfall
4.93 1934
3.27 1963
6.80 1944
7.73 1952
6.14 1948
2.94 1889
5.99 1978
3.41 1987
6.76 1961
2.35 1950

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_nov

November rainfall following the top 10 driest October were generally wetter. In fact, 5 of the 10 driest October had November rainfalls of over 5 inches. So, this November could be wetter. We shall see.

[wxman57]

Looks like IAH had a trace of rain between 8am and 9am today. The 15Z (10am) report indicated no accumulation though:
3 and 6HR PRECIP (INCHES) : 0.00




KIAH 261353Z 24006KT 10SM -RA BKN022 BKN040 27/22 A2971 RMK AO2 RAB27 SLP061 P0000 T02670222=

Z-TIME ---- WIND ---- Prevailing Temp- Lowest Flight
ICAO DY/HRMN DIR-SPD GST Visibility erature Dew Point Ceiling Rules
---- ------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------
KIAH 26/1353 240-006 KT 000 0010.00SM 80F( 27C) 71F( 22C) 2200FT MVFR

Cloud Cover : Broken 2200 Feet, Broken 4000 Feet
Weather : Light Rain
Automated Observation Type: AO2
Altimeter (Inches) : 29.71
Recent Weather : Rain Began 27 mins after the hour.
Sea Level Pressure (hPa): 1006.1
Hourly PRECIP (INCHES) : 0.00
Temperature to Tenths : 80.1F (26.7C)
Dew Point to Tenths : 72.0F (22.2C)

KIAH 261429Z 24008KT 10SM SCT022 BKN040 28/22 A2973 RMK AO2 RAE1354=

Z-TIME ---- WIND ---- Prevailing Temp- Lowest Flight
ICAO DY/HRMN DIR-SPD GST Visibility erature Dew Point Ceiling Rules
---- ------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------
KIAH 26/1429 240-008 KT 000 0010.00SM 82F( 28C) 71F( 22C) 4000FT VFR

Cloud Cover : Scattered 2200 Feet, Broken 4000 Feet
Automated Observation Type: AO2
Altimeter (Inches) : 29.73
Recent Weather : Rain Ended at 1354

[djjordan]

That is one motherload of a storm to our north in Minnesota ..... 957MB pressure at International Falls

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

[TexasMetBlake]

From NOAA: NEW RECORD

New record set today for the lowest pressure in a non-tropical storm in the mainland U.S. The massive storm system barreling across the central U.S. had a minimum central pressure of 28.24" or 956 mb (equivalent to the minimum pressure of a Category 3 hurricane). This breaks the old record of 28.28" (958 mb), set on Jan. 26, 1978, during the Blizzard of 1978 (aka the Cleveland Sueprbomb). This is also lower than the March 1993 Superstrom (aka "The Storm of the Century"), or the "Witch of November" storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975, or even the Columbus Day Storm of Oct. 1962.

Read the latest summary of the storm—including reports of peak wind gusts—from the NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:

[srainhoutx]

That is one motherload of a storm to our north in Minnesota ..... 957MB pressure at International Falls

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

Happy Birthday!