Former Hurricane Richard

[srainhoutx]

Latest Visible Imagery suggests a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) is developving over the center...

[Andrew]

It looks like this could be a problem for the eastern gulf. We have a pretty good consensus on that so far.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a change with the 18Z HWRF and GFDL models. Both suggest an Belize/Yucatan strike. I understand our friend and Weather Forum member Hurricane Josh is considering an intercept.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220233
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...RICHARD CONTINUES TO MEANDER...A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 80.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT EASTERN HONDURAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. RICHARD
HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[kellybell4770]

so the million dollar question is - any chance this thing could hit us? I've been watching the track and it has changed a lot from what they originally said - which makes me question if this thing could be a possibility for us now???

[srainhoutx]

We are expecting a cold front next Thursday. That should keep us protected here in this part of the Gulf.

[wxman57]

Yep, back to fall weather here Thursday. No tropical storm. Richard may not survive crossing the Yucatan.

[kellybell4770]

We are expecting a cold front next Thursday. That should keep us protected here in this part of the Gulf.

thanks!

[srainhoutx]

RECON is not that impressive this morning. Any thoughts regarding impacts along the Yucatan and Belize, wxman57?

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221441
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER
ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB. IN ADDITION...THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER
SOUTH. THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE
CENTER THAN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT
UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND
72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL. AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING
UNLIKELY.

A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.8N 81.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 83.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.6N 85.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 88.4W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 222049
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD
SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD
APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATE ON
SUNDAY.

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RICHARD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT
DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM
1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE STORM. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS
REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT
FROM THE CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT
ABOUT 4 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER
RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS
STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE
MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP
WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY
WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE
RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM
DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS
THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 81.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 82.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.7N 85.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 86.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.2N 89.7W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks suggest a Belize strike...

[srainhoutx]

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA
FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR
FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND
SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT. BASED ON THESE AND
EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND
MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.

WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING
UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15
KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO
THE CORE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL
NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED ON
THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR. AFTER EMERGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.

HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.8N 82.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 83.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS
COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[srainhoutx]

WTNT34 KNHC 231752
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART