Former Hurricane Richard

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°27'N 83°29'W (17.45N 83.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 188 miles (303 km) to the SW (227°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 308m (1,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:50:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[srainhoutx]

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFDL and HWRF are out. GFDL take this to the Yucatan Channel as a Major Hurricane and the HWRF suggests a Yucatan strike, but much weaker.

[srainhoutx]

00Z tracks and intensity...

10202010 00Z track_early1.png

10202010 00Z intensity_early1.png

[srainhoutx]

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like no TD again today. An exposed circulation center is clearly seen on VIS Imagery and slowly drifting SSE. We did get a vortex message from RECON, though...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 15:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°20'N 82°01'W (17.3333N 82.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the SSW (197°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 247° at 11kts (From the WSW at ~ 12.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 273m (896ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 24kts (~ 27.6mph) in the east quadrant at 15:54:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph) in the east quadrant at 15:54:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ESE (122°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, everybody in the Gulf region, especially LA and points east, then south into south and central America should watch 99l. There are a couple of scenarios we are watching, none of which currently involve Texas. None the less, the northern Gulf could have a visitor in the coming days...

More later..


BB

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992010_al192010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010210043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 19, 2010, DB, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL192010
AL, 19, 2010101606, , BEST, 0, 108N, 751W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101612, , BEST, 0, 109N, 757W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101618, , BEST, 0, 110N, 763W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 113N, 774W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101706, , BEST, 0, 117N, 784W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 19, 2010101712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 795W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 804W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 810W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101806, , BEST, 0, 137N, 814W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101812, , BEST, 0, 141N, 818W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 146N, 823W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101900, , BEST, 0, 153N, 828W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101906, , BEST, 0, 160N, 831W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 19, 2010101912, , BEST, 0, 167N, 833W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 19, 2010101918, , BEST, 0, 174N, 834W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102000, , BEST, 0, 177N, 832W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102006, , BEST, 0, 178N, 829W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 177N, 825W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 190, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102018, , BEST, 0, 176N, 816W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 19, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 176N, 812W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Ptarmigan]

I don't how credible the models are. I see one has it near the Texas Coast.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 81.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY...BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Ptarmigan]

I think TD19W could be a hurricane before it makes landfall. The Caribbean is still warm and can support one.

[unome]

Mexico seems to have had a "kick me" sign on it this season http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... l#contents

[srainhoutx]

12Z Track and Intensity...

10212010 12Z track_early1.png

10212010 12Z intensity_early1.png

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RICHARD.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND RICHARD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

A busy RECON schedule ahead...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 21 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0519A RICHARD
C. 22/0800Z
D. 16.0N 81.0W
E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0619A RICHARD
C. 22/2000Z
D. 16.0N 81.6W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0719A RICHARD
C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.2N 82.4W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE BUOY DEPLOYMENT MISSION FOR 23/1400Z.
C. PROBABLE G-IV FLIGHT TAKING OFF AT 23/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH MISSIONS
BEGINNING WITH A G-IV TAKEOFF AT 22/1730Z. THE P-3
WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks...

[srainhoutx]

Impressive convective ball near/over the center as we head into the late afternoon hour. Shear appears to be relaxing as well...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS
TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION. THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN
OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD. HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 80.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE