October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

[Mr. T]

i feel like i am in a parallel universe when the air is like this.

That probably has more to do with that other thing you do...

Don't do drugs, kids

[Mr. T]

You can't get much more zonal than the day 10 Euro

just an awful pattern right there...

I want our strong El Nino back

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS looks a bit more favorable for a line of storms to push through the area next saturday morning.

Hopefully the disturbance can trend a bit more south so cap will be less of an issue...

[Baseballdude2915]

A few weekend showers . That's about the only thing that's gonna change in the next week and a half.
What a tease Fall was, rushing in with a cool two weeks, only to leave us hangin'.

Hints are something different around Halloween or the first week of November from what I've been seeing, still LONG term guestimates. Bring it on already mother nature.

[tireman4]

Odds are we are going to have a shift....sometime

[snowman65]

I saw a lone cloud drift by. I walked under it for miles...........NOTHING!!!...Is this what we have become????......

[unome]

we could forget about watering & face the wrath of the CIA (Community Improvement Association) and also incur the expense of possibly having to re-sod or have our foundation crack from the ground shifting too much or we can water every few days & keep it alive - me, I'm choosing to water. I do hope we get at least a little relief soon

[Mr. T]

Odds are we are going to have a shift....sometime

sometime after winter, probably...

Enjoy the La Nina, folks

[tireman4]

Odds are we are going to have a shift....sometime

sometime after winter, probably...

Enjoy the La Nina, folks

Yeah it is looking that way...

[ticka1]

How much longer will the La Nina pattern stick around?

[TexasMetBlake]

Looking ahead out to Day 10, the 12z gfs brings in a significant front with a possible squall line. By Day 16, it brings Pensacola a bit of snow? LOL. I'm serious.

[Ptarmigan]

Looking ahead out to Day 10, the 12z gfs brings in a significant front with a possible squall line. By Day 16, it brings Pensacola a bit of snow? LOL. I'm serious.

Looks to be interesting. Don't think snow is likely in Pensacola.

[srainhoutx]

How much longer will the La Nina pattern stick around?

NOAA Outlook released...

NOAA: Another Winter of Extremes in Store for U.S. as La Niña Strengthens

The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”

“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

[djjordan]

Is it possible that IAH and HOU see no precip at all for the month of October? There .... I said it ..... now it will rain LOL.

[TexasMetBlake]

It rained in College Station this morning! I couldn't believe it.

[Mr. T]

Is it possible that IAH and HOU see no precip at all for the month of October? There .... I said it ..... now it will rain LOL.

It definitely looks very possible at this point. I doubt we see much of anything this weekend and models continue to trend drier and warmer with the cold front at the end of next week.

We haven't even had a trace at IAH yet... I think it would be kind of cool to see a big ol' egg as our total precip for this month

[Ptarmigan]

Upper Texas Coast has had Octobers with no rain. The year with 0 inches of rain in October were 1924 and 1952. November of 1924 was dry, while November of 1952 was wet. So, we could either have a dry or wet November.

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

The other months with no rain were in July, 1899 and 1924. July 1899 came after a wet June. 1924 was a dry year.

[Mr. T]

Upper Texas Coast has had Octobers with no rain. The year with 0 inches of rain in October were 1924 and 1952. November of 1924 was dry, while November of 1952 was wet. So, we could either have a dry or wet November.

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

The other months with no rain were in July, 1899 and 1924. July 1899 came after a wet June. 1924 was a dry year.

"Officially", the city of Houston has never seen a month with 0" of rain, but we have had several trace amounts

[Ptarmigan]

"Officially", the city of Houston has never seen a month with 0" of rain, but we have had several trace amounts

I consider trace of rain to be 0" for simplicity. Yes, I know trace is less than 0.01" of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Something we have not seen in a long time...