Former Hurricane Richard

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010170009
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992010
AL, 99, 2010101600, , BEST, 0, 98N, 787W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101606, , BEST, 0, 98N, 793W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101612, , BEST, 0, 98N, 798W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101618, , BEST, 0, 97N, 803W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 95N, 808W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 170012
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0012 UTC SUN OCT 17 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101017 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101017  0000   101017  1200   101018  0000   101018  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.5N  80.8W    9.5N  82.2W    9.6N  83.4W    9.9N  84.3W
BAMD     9.5N  80.8W    9.7N  82.7W    9.8N  84.5W   10.1N  86.3W
BAMM     9.5N  80.8W    9.7N  82.5W    9.8N  84.1W   10.0N  85.5W
LBAR     9.5N  80.8W    9.9N  82.5W   10.8N  84.4W   12.0N  86.3W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          44KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          25KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101019  0000   101020  0000   101021  0000   101022  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  84.8W   11.2N  85.5W   11.3N  86.1W   10.4N  87.0W
BAMD    10.4N  87.8W   10.7N  90.0W   10.4N  91.7W    9.5N  94.0W
BAMM    10.1N  86.6W   10.6N  87.9W   10.1N  88.5W    8.2N  89.1W
LBAR    13.6N  87.7W   17.1N  88.3W   19.6N  86.2W   21.2N  84.5W
SHIP        53KTS          69KTS          79KTS          83KTS
DSHP        38KTS          55KTS          64KTS          69KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.5N LONCUR =  80.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  79.8W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 =  78.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

12Z...

[srainhoutx]

Globals are somewhat less enthusiastic than they had been...

Perhaps, but there remains a lot of question marks as to where this will form and where it will go.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z GFS develops this in the EPAC and then it crosses over to the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. This is the forth run to show this type scenario which we have seen with Hermine this season.

[srainhoutx]

[wxman57]

Given today's developments, I'm quite bullish on development now. It's not moving inland, it'll drift northward for a few days in a quite favorable (for development) area. May well be a TD tomorrow, possibly a TS. I'd give it an 80-90% shot at TD within 48 hours now. And if it becomes a TS, then it'll become a hurricane. Good news is that the northward drift should end late Wednesday when high pressure starts building eastward across the Gulf. This should force it back to the south and southwest and back into Honduras by the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Up to 40% this morning and looking rather impressive...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect RECON will find a TD this afternoon...

[srainhoutx]

12Z tracks...

[srainhoutx]

Appears RECON will fly today. More missions have been tasked for tomorrow/Thursday as well...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 19 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-140

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 20/0830Z
D. 18.0N 83.0W
E. 20/1130Z TO 20/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0319A CYCLONE
C. 20/2030Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[srainhoutx]

Well, no RECON today after all.

Edit: RECON enroute!

[srainhoutx]

12Z Canadian suggests 99L will stall over the NW Caribbean before being shunted back W into the Yucatan and into the Gulf...

[srainhoutx]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HAS NOT YET
COMPLETED ITS MISSION. ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED IN
ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has found some W winds and a very broad 1010mb low pressure. Enough to upgrade to a TD, we will see.

18:30:00Z 17.450N 83.600W 977.4 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 288 meters
(~ 945 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 255° at 4 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 29 knots*
(~ 33.3 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 29.0 knots* (~ 33.3 mph*)

[wxman57]

Yes, a weak LLC near 17.5N/83.6W. Winds 5-15 kts, weak convection nearby. Probably not enough to upgrade.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:09:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 83°29'W (17.3833N 83.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (308 km) to the SW (226°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 20kts (From the ESE at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the north quadrant at 18:59:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[texoz]

I believe TD 19 has formed. Will likely be Richard by tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:09:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 83°29'W (17.3833N 83.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (308 km) to the SW (226°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 20kts (From the ESE at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the north quadrant at 18:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:15:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BEST WINDSHIFT CENTER WAS AT 19:05:50Z AT 17 31N 83 35W

[srainhoutx]

18Z tracks...

[srainhoutx]

Getting a tad more interesting...