February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Portastorm]

Portastorm is trying very hard not to get too excited and trying to remember the sage advice from Wxman57 about not trusting any model beyond 72 hours!

[Mr. T]

Thankfully, the 12z GFS still looks the same as the 0z and 6z runs...

It's time for the Euro to jump back on board!

Even if temps at the surface are forecast to be above freezing, if temps aloft are cold enough then we could get frozen precip.

Just like Dec 4th. The temperature at both IAH and here in Kingwood never reached 32 degrees until after the snow was over... It actually snowed at IAH while the temperature was 40 degrees (though it fell quickly to 33 after that).

[wxman57]

Portastorm is trying very hard not to get too excited and trying to remember the sage advice from Wxman57 about not trusting any model beyond 72 hours!

I'll say this - it looks "interesting" for next week. Still wary of believing any one model run yet, though.

[redneckweather]

wxman, you have been discussing the models but with you being a long time pro met, you have to have your own idea on what might transpire next week. Let's hear it.

[srainhoutx]

Light snow with temps above freezing won't cut it for me. It just melts on contact.


But when I lived in coastal New York, many of our snow storms happened with heavy snow and temps around 35ºF. If the snow is heavy enough, it'll stick.


I haven't looked, can we get 6 hour liquid equivalents above 0.25? Anything less is all sizzle, no steak if it isn't subfreezing.

You should have been here in 73 Ed. Surface temps were marginal at best, but a bit of a coastal developed after temps were in the mid to upper 30's and then when the Upper Air slowly trekked across the area we had a nice moderate to heavy burst. Sort of the way we get these type systems here in SE TX and especially later in the season. But, we shall see.

[wxman57]

wxman, you have been discussing the models but with you being a long time pro met, you have to have your own idea on what might transpire next week. Let's hear it.

I'll feel more confident when the Euro gets on board with the GFS, but I do think that the chances of another significant snow event across Texas are increasing. The 12Z GFS run seems in line with the 00Z GFS run. Maybe even a tad colder/wetter. Should be completed shortly. Perhaps the area of heaviest snow will be a bit south of last week's.

As for snow here in Houston, we did come close last week. If (big IF) the GFS is trending in the right direction, then we may well see a chance of frozen precip here next Tuesday night.

GFS just completed. Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram for Houston (IAH). Temps in lower 30s with precip Tuesday night. Will have to check a forecast sounding to see precip type...

[txsnowmaker]

Light snow with temps above freezing won't cut it for me. It just melts on contact.


But when I lived in coastal New York, many of our snow storms happened with heavy snow and temps around 35ºF. If the snow is heavy enough, it'll stick.


I haven't looked, can we get 6 hour liquid equivalents above 0.25? Anything less is all sizzle, no steak if it isn't subfreezing.

You should have been here in 73 Ed. Surface temps were marginal at best, but a bit of a coastal developed after temps were in the mid to upper 30's and then when the Upper Air slowly trekked across the area we had a nice moderate to heavy burst. Sort of the way we get these type systems here in SE TX and especially later in the season. But, we shall see.

Srain, with regard to the idea of a coastal moving through our area ahead of the potential upper air system, how far out would the models be able to detect such a system (or do they often turn up with little or no warning?)?

[wxman57]

Just checked 12Z GFS sounding forecasts for IAH. The model suggests cold rain changing to a mixture of rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday night. With that pattern, I couldn't rule out a few snowflakes but I don't see a snow "event" for Houston given the latest data.

[txsnowmaker]

All eyes on the Euro now. If it reverts back to the colder/wetter trend, perhaps it will show a better scenario for winter weather in Houston. If it sticks to a warmer solution, then that may indicate that the GFS is out to lunch, in which case the folks north of us who are thinking they might be in for a significant snow storm will be really let down.

[kayci]

Just checked 12Z GFS sounding forecasts for IAH. The model suggests cold rain changing to a mixture of rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday night. With that pattern, I couldn't rule out a few snowflakes but I don't see a snow "event" for Houston given the latest data.

You're just a 'bucket' of good news, aren't ya?!?!?

[wxman57]

Just checked 12Z GFS sounding forecasts for IAH. The model suggests cold rain changing to a mixture of rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday night. With that pattern, I couldn't rule out a few snowflakes but I don't see a snow "event" for Houston given the latest data.

You're just a 'bucket' of good news, aren't ya?!?!?

What do we care? We'll be in Tahiti, anyway!

[wxdata]

12z GFS- Blue square invades Houston late Tuesday...

[C2G]

A blue square?
I think that blue square is exactly what wxman suggest. Maybe the possibility of a few flakes mixing in as the rain exits. Certainly NOT a wintry weather event. Pretty much status quo for this years cold rain events.

[Mr. T]

A blue square?
I think that blue square is exactly what wxman suggest. Maybe the possibility of a few flakes mixing in as the rain exits. Certainly NOT a wintry weather event. Pretty much status quo for this years cold rain events.

I think I'm going to put you on ignore

Anyway, an early look at the 12z Euro suggests the model has flipped back to what it was showing previously. Looks much more like the GFS now, though less amplified... I don't have access to any QPF maps, obviously, but just by looking at the upper air, it looks like the GFS. I can only see 24 hour increments, so it is anyone's guess what it looks like between 96 and 120.

The 12z UKMET also leans support, again, to the GFS. The 12z CMC is now the lonely model showing a more zonal flow and a sheared system moving across.

[tireman4]

I will take a blue square for the win Wxdata!!!!

[wxman57]

Try this website and click on the Houston area for a GFS snow accumulation chart for our area. Higher resolution:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm

[tireman4]

Snow for Humble!!!!!!!! Yeah Blue Sqare!!!

[srainhoutx]

Well the ECMWF is back to where it was before the hiccup. GFS has trended colder/wetter with a suggestion of wintry. The UKMET continues with what that model has been showing for several days. Confidence is slowly building that some wintry weather may in fact be in the future for next week.

[Mr. T]

Well the ECMWF is back to where it was before the hiccup. GFS has trended colder/wetter with a suggestion of wintry. The UKMET continues with what that model has been showing for several days. Confidence is slowly building that some wintry weather may in fact be in the future for next week.

It is nice to see the Euro back on our side.

What a goofy mess that 0z run was...

[srainhoutx]

No need to worry about the 'finer details' at this point, but I suspect that many folks N of I-10 will at least have a shot at seeing some wintry weather. We shall see.