October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO EASTERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ SWD
INTO DELMARVA...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW NCENTRAL KS CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD INTO NERN OK 12Z
TUE. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW ACROSS ERN OK INTO
WRN AR. OVERNIGHT MCS NOW WEAKENING OVER NERN TX AND CLEARING IN
ITS WAKE WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WNW/ESE ACROSS PA/NJ IN CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM GREAT LAKES AND WESTERLIES IN SRN
BRANCH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MDT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
VICINITY AND JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

...SRN PLAINS...
WITH THE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS OVER NERN TX...AND THE COOL
STEEP LAPSE RATES/7-8C/KM/ IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SURFACE HEATING AND NEAR ONE INCH PWAT SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE MLCAPES WILL BE
LIMITED WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FURTHER SE
ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR BOTH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MLCAPE CLIMBS TO 1500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40KT WILL BE IN PLACE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL THIS AREA WITH HAIL STILL LIKELY FURTHER N WITH UPPER
LOW...BUT LESS RISK OF SEVERE.

FURTHER S THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING MCS WILL BE FOCUS FOR RENEWAL
OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ERN TO SCENTRAL TX WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...I.E. DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...COUPLED WITH LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM...WILL PROVIDE MDT INSTABILITY.

LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...HOWEVER
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE LIMITED SHEAR
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

[biggerbyte]

If things play out like it looks like they may ATM, we will continue this low excitement potential all the way through winter. That's a good thing for hurricane season, but bad for all of us winter weather chasers, and those that need to catch up on needed rainfall. I had hoped the newbies could see a fair chance for snow flurries this winter, but we can't get that with warmer temps and less moisture. At least we can look forward to about a 50/50 shot of some rain for tonight. Wxman may get his paint wet. Hopefully his street will stay dry. Equal chances either way.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, if we do not get rain tonight, it could be awhile before there will be another chance. Right now it looks like most of the energy is north of our area. 50/50 chances may be pushing it. We could be looking at hit or miss, or simply nothing at all for s.e. Texas. We have a few more hours to monitor for changes, but the radar is currently not supporting much moving this way.

I

[txflagwaver]

Well...I'm not going to count on the rain...sprinklers going on...oh...and there is NO wind at my house right now...

[biggerbyte]

Oh well!!! It is all north an northeast of here. So close...

[Ptarmigan]

Oh well!!! It is all north an northeast of here. So close...

The area northeast of us needed the rain more than we need. They are drier than us.

[tireman4]

Where is the front? I am thinking right near Bryan....

[srainhoutx]

Starting to get a bit worrisome regarding lack of rain. The dry pattern looks to continue until around the 23rd, and that's questionable as well.

[srainhoutx]

Things are looking a little better regarding rain chances next week as the GFS and to some extent, the Euro suggest an Upper Trough/Low to our W. We shall see. We need some rain!

[srainhoutx]

Despite AZ wanting desert conditions, I need some rain! Interesting pattern as the Euro and GFS are offering a deep cut off low in the SW. Sort of a change being much further S than the upper lows we have seen since the pattern changed to cool and dry.

[biggerbyte]

In the type of pattern that we are in, that is what we count on around here. It will be interesting to see if that actually pans out. I sure hope so. We all are getting very dry. My water bill is going to go through the roof.

[unome]

dry as a bone... my grass crunches after just 1 day of not watering it

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a change in the Meduim range for next week. Rain chances have decreased, but there are some hints that the cutoff in the SW will slowly work across the region later next week. Also of note is the Hurricane S of Cuba as depicted by the GFS...

[Mr. T]

Our driest October on record is a trace. It may actually be more interesting if we really never saw a drop of rain this month at the IAH rain bucket, but you'd think once the cut off ejects we'd see at least see passing showers, right?

[srainhoutx]

Well, we may see even more than a drop or two in a slow moving cuttoff situation. Time will tell. There are some interesting hints of MJO (rising air currents) activity arriving around the same time. Hopefully this dry pattern will break next week, but as we all know the other 'side of that coin' could be more than we bargained for.

[tireman4]

Our driest October on record is a trace. It may actually be more interesting if we really never saw a drop of rain this month at the IAH rain bucket, but you'd think once the cut off ejects we'd see at least see passing showers, right?

Well, climo would say your are right, but this is a weird La Nina, so who knows...

[biggerbyte]

We have to get a pattern change at some point to bring some rain around here. I agree with Steve that this feast or famine routine could set in. What happen to the good old days when the Houston area got at least some rain almost every day, with the occasional extreme?

[srainhoutx]

We are seeing signals of a classic Rex Block pattern that is normally seen during the Spring and Summer season to our W. While that does not bode well for rainfall, as the cutoff low swings into Plains our chances could increase with any frontal/trough boundary that may be near the area...

[srainhoutx]

The medium range Euro and GFS continues to suggest a Rex Block next week. The GFS again has a powerful Hurricane on the charts SW of Jamaica in the same time frame. This is a very unusual pattern in Fall, much less in a La Nina. The affect on sensible weather locally remains to be seen, but it would suggest a change from what we have been seeing as of late.

[Andrew]

It is long range but this would help: