Remnants of Paula

[Ptarmigan]

I read that Paula broke Humberto's record for intensification.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1653

Quite a small hurricane. I think it could be a major hurricane. I noticed the NHC in 5 days has it as a tropical storm.



Looking better.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 17:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 17:02:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°41'N 85°49'W (18.6833N 85.8167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the E (85°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,291m (4,236ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 93kts (From the SE at ~ 107.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:59:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL RAGGED

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121738
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

[Ptarmigan]

Paula's small size could certainly allow rapid intensification, especially with cooler thunderstorm cloud tops in the eyewall.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122341
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[Ptarmigan]

It is interesting to see those small hurricanes. They are common throughout the world. I seem to notice them more often off the coast of Australia. I think in some basins they are more common due to monsoonal troughs spinning up thunderstorms. Paula, Marco, and Tracy are small and yes they could fit into Isabel, Ike, or Katrina's eye.

I noticed computer models are that good with small microcanes. They seem to be better with large macrocanes.

[wxman57]

12Z models say "Disturbance Paula" with 20 kts. It's gone, merged with the front and dissipated.