November 2024

[Cpv17]

Indeed. Chilly. Watch out for Richmond Randle In Division 5 A 2 Region III..

Had a chance to watch Randle play earlier this season. They’re elite. My friend’s son is their QB and they have a sophomore RB that already has almost 40 D1 offers.

Theu pasted my high school, Santa Fe, 68 to 0. My son's high school, Summer Creek, is really good too. We will be at the East TISCA Invitational Swim Meet Thursday and Friday, so no football for us.

Summer Creek’s district in football is insane lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

My uncle is from Mason so I get to hear about Punchers football all the time lol they have a really good team this year.

Weimar is solid and should score but Mason’s RB Silerio is something else. He lost to Ernest Campbell from Refugio in the 200 by hundredths of a second.

[tireman4]

306
FXUS64 KHGX 211244
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure over the region will be slowly shifting to the
east through the end of this week. Aloft, the NW flow is expected to
persist. All of this should translate to light N/NE winds these next
couple of days as the cool/dry air mass remains in place over SE TX.
With mostly clear to clear skies, highs today and tomorrow are going
to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will run from the up-
per 30s to lower 40s across our northern CWA...mid to upper 40s over
the central and southern CWA tonight (mid 50s at the beaches). These
overnight temperatures should run a couple of degrees warmer for to-
morrow night...upper 30s for the Piney Woods, lower and mid 40s over
the Brazos Valley to the I-10 corridor, upper 40s for H-town proper/
coastal counties, and the upper 50s along the immediate coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure is expected to depart to our east on Saturday.
As it does so, southerly flow will return and will begin to
transport warmer moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead
to a gradual warming trend across Southeast Texas with the highs
going from the low to upper 70s on Saturday to the low to upper 80s
by Monday.

The global models are suggesting a weak upper level trough skirting
the Southern Plains and could potentially bring in a very weak cold
front sometime late Monday into early Tuesday. At this time, low
level moisture (PWs of around 1 inch or less) and/or forcing may not
be sufficient for this front to bring us much rain activity,
although some light rain or drizzle isn`t out of the question. What
the front could provide for us, however, is a respite in the warming
trend and may even cool us down a few degrees Monday night into
Tuesday. The high temperatures for Tuesday could range between the
low 70s to low 80s. Again, this will all depend on how strong and
how far south this front tracks.

A stronger upper level trough may push across the Southern Plains
sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday and could bring in
another, potentially stronger, cold front across Southeast Texas.
Model guidance is not in agreement with the timing of this front.
Thus, it is currently difficult to pin point exactly how much rain
we will receive ahead of the front and how much cooling will occur
in the wake of the front. For now, proceeded with the NBM solution
for this forecast issuance, which includes slight rain chances for
the inland portions starting during the day on Wednesday and
continuing into Thursday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 643 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

With high pressure situated over the region, light N/NE to variable
winds will prevail through this TAF package (2-7kts). Otherwise VFR.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Winds and seas will continue today as high pressure moves across
Texas. Light offshore winds will persist through Friday. Onshore
flow will return on Saturday and increase Sunday as the pressure
gradient tightens. Caution flags may be needed. Light onshore flow
is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by another increase in wind
speeds on Wednesday ahead of the next cold FROPA - potentially
moving across Southeast Texas sometime Thursday. Confidence for the
timing of this cold front is very low at this time due to
differences in the forecast models. Therefore, some adjustments to
the timing of the increased wind speeds and rain chances could occur
during the next few days.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cotto

[tireman4]

Had a chance to watch Randle play earlier this season. They’re elite. My friend’s son is their QB and they have a sophomore RB that already has almost 40 D1 offers.

Theu pasted my high school, Santa Fe, 68 to 0. My son's high school, Summer Creek, is really good too. We will be at the East TISCA Invitational Swim Meet Thursday and Friday, so no football for us.

Summer Creek’s district in football is insane lol

I agree and in swimming too. For example, the 100 Fly in district, the top 6 in district last year made the top 8 A final. ( there is an A and B final). My son was 9th in the 100 Fly ( his freshman year), and his time would have made it out in every district except ours. His time would have earned him 11th in last years Regional at Cy Fair ISD. Yes, that tough. LOL. We woke up to clear and chilly skies this morning. It will be another Chamber of Commerce day today.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

37 in CoCo this morning. Went for a long run!

[tireman4]

Larry Cosgrove

Increasing North America Snow Cover And High-Latitude Blocking Signatures Imply Colder Changes To The Seasonal Forecast
Let it snow! For the more that the snowpack increases across Canada and the northern states, the opportunity to build an Arctic air mass will expand as well. If, however, the coverage maps lessen and "turn green" across Ontario and Quebec, then regimes will have a shorter life and less penetration into the southern half of the lower 48 states this winter.
Opportunities for colder weather are increasing over the next three weeks. The emergence of -EPO (Alaska) and -NAO (Davis Strait) blocking ridges enhances the buckling of the jet stream, as a broad Hudson Bay vortex will form in between the two positive height anomalies. Shortwaves that form across the Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR rotate around the gyre and deepen the cold pool in the Prairie Provinces, which then head south in a trough across the middle of the continent. If that troughing is full-latitude (stretching into Texas and Louisiana), then the cold air will be able to reach further south and east. But should teh flow remain only modestly amplified, then the southern and eastern portions of the nation will see warm-ups, some of which will be quite impressive.
Driving all of this wintry pattern (which will have peaks east of the Rocky Mountains between November 30 and December 11) is tropical forcing, which is linked to the polar westerlies crossing the International Dateline. Part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the impulse in the central equatorial Pacific Basin is also feeding a subtropical jet stream that has hooked up with the storm and front along the East Coast. If the MJO remains strong, in Phases 6 - 8 into 1, both wind fields will remain intense and supportive of deeper and more southerly tracking storms. But should the convection retrogress to the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, risks for high heating demand and snowfall will be reduced.
I had to make some changes to my winter forecast, which now includes some colder turns in the south central and Northeast in the DJF time frame. As we alternate between the two cold vs, warm scenarios, there will at least be some potential for true winter weather in places like Frisco TX and Rising Sun MD. "Back and forth" is better than another snowless and mild winter, right?

[Pas_Bon]

37 in CoCo this morning. Went for a long run!

Amazing weather. I set a bunch of mason jars outside last night and sealed them. I'll wait to open them in the house until next Summer. That's how it works, right?

[Cromagnum]

37 in CoCo this morning. Went for a long run!

Amazing weather. I set a bunch of mason jars outside last night and sealed them. I'll wait to open them in the house until next Summer. That's how it works, right?

Maybe if you put them in a Yeti cooler. Haha

[DoctorMu]

37 in CoCo this morning. Went for a long run!

37°F at the CLL airport for the low. 34°F IMFY.

Give me the last 24 hours and repeat. Just a few months to enjoy and remember before Endless Summer '25.

[DoctorMu]

37 in CoCo this morning. Went for a long run!

Amazing weather. I set a bunch of mason jars outside last night and sealed them. I'll wait to open them in the house until next Summer. That's how it works, right?

haha Yes - keep on ice.

[DoctorMu]

Larry Cosgrove

Increasing North America Snow Cover And High-Latitude Blocking Signatures Imply Colder Changes To The Seasonal Forecast
Let it snow! For the more that the snowpack increases across Canada and the northern states, the opportunity to build an Arctic air mass will expand as well. If, however, the coverage maps lessen and "turn green" across Ontario and Quebec, then regimes will have a shorter life and less penetration into the southern half of the lower 48 states this winter.
Opportunities for colder weather are increasing over the next three weeks. The emergence of -EPO (Alaska) and -NAO (Davis Strait) blocking ridges enhances the buckling of the jet stream, as a broad Hudson Bay vortex will form in between the two positive height anomalies. Shortwaves that form across the Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR rotate around the gyre and deepen the cold pool in the Prairie Provinces, which then head south in a trough across the middle of the continent. If that troughing is full-latitude (stretching into Texas and Louisiana), then the cold air will be able to reach further south and east. But should teh flow remain only modestly amplified, then the southern and eastern portions of the nation will see warm-ups, some of which will be quite impressive.
Driving all of this wintry pattern (which will have peaks east of the Rocky Mountains between November 30 and December 11) is tropical forcing, which is linked to the polar westerlies crossing the International Dateline. Part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the impulse in the central equatorial Pacific Basin is also feeding a subtropical jet stream that has hooked up with the storm and front along the East Coast. If the MJO remains strong, in Phases 6 - 8 into 1, both wind fields will remain intense and supportive of deeper and more southerly tracking storms. But should the convection retrogress to the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, risks for high heating demand and snowfall will be reduced.
I had to make some changes to my winter forecast, which now includes some colder turns in the south central and Northeast in the DJF time frame. As we alternate between the two cold vs, warm scenarios, there will at least be some potential for true winter weather in places like Frisco TX and Rising Sun MD. "Back and forth" is better than another snowless and mild winter, right?

It snowed in Chicago and Minneapolis yesterday. MOAR.

[DoctorMu]

Temp of 73°F; DP = 37°F. I'll allow it.

A low IMFY of 27°F.

Return flow this weekend with a warmup on Sunday. A weak, dry FROPA Monday night.

GFS continues to push the cold air after T-giving east. CMC is a definite maybe. Euro is not so sure. Ensembles still have zonal flow. So, seasonable weather after Thanksgiving remains the more sensible forecast.

For now.

[tireman4]

Amazing chamber of commerce weather. On the sports front, Richmond Randle seems to be on a mission ( 79 to 0). 5A District 9 is a tough district with Randle, Fort Bend Marshall and Iowa Colony Barring a complete catastrophe,
Atascocita and North Shore will play for the Region Final, again. Summer Creek is still steamrolling. Addendum. If all four district teams ( Summer Creek, Kingwood, Atascocita and North Shore) win, the Region III Class 6A I and II finals will see all four teams. Wow.

[brazoriatx]

Pretty boring in here..where is our cool front that's coming in for Thanksgiving? I use cool because highs in the 60s and 70s isn't cold lol

[tireman4]

Right now, the major front looks to come in Thanksgiving, but it depends on timing as to who will have cold and warm. Stay tuned

[biggerbyte]

In spite of the chatter concerning the upcoming cold, there is no indication it will dive straight south. The typical southeast trajectory looks to be on board.

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte thats not true, in fact im expecting the models to continue to correct to the west, the CMC/ ICON/ Euro Aifs and now the Euro dive the arctic sir more to the south, happens every time, models try to frive the Arctic air to the se before eventually correcting back west and south over time, it looks really cold here after thanksgiving

[TxLady]

I'm hoping for not-so-Arctic weather on Friday (11/29/24). We're having our Thanksgiving dinner, that day @1:00pm. It is an outside affair, with seating for 30 on the Barndominium porch. So far, it seems manageable for sweaters and light jackets....Just the way Thanksgiving should be! Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[biggerbyte]

biggerbyte thats not true, in fact im expecting the models to continue to correct to the west, the CMC/ ICON/ Euro Aifs and now the Euro dive the arctic sir more to the south, happens every time, models try to frive the Arctic air to the se before eventually correcting back west and south over time, it looks really cold here after thanksgiving

Yes. Sometimes heavy cold air masses will sag south. I've seen that happen many times. Good old Harold Taft used to talk about that a lot. I'm speaking in terms of otherwise.

We will see.

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte yep, but the trend has been back west with the arctic air, it will spill south first before eventually moving east, how cold we get is still up in the air, but i would at least be ready to break out those winter coats haha