November 2024

[DoctorMu]

0.58 inches IMFY. 0.57 inches at the airport. Unusual for our rainfall to be that close to identical - often just 3 miles can make a significant difference, but that was a consistent line of showers without any embedded severe weather.

[DoctorMu]

Well the main action is going to miss me by 5 miles to the east. Figures.

Yeah, the line has really weakened as the low dashes north toward Minneapolis.

[JDsGN]

Darn we missed out on the good rain in NW Cypress with .02” that was just enough to wet the ground. The cool air sure feels nice compared to the swamp it was this morning.

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see some rain.

[brazoriatx]

Thought a cold front blew in? Isn't very cool this morning

[Cpv17]

Thought a cold front blew in? Isn't very cool this morning

This was a Pacific front. The bigger one with Canadian air is coming in later today.

[tireman4]

806
FXUS64 KHGX 191155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Cooler/drier air will continue to filter down into the area today in
the wake of yesterday` s cold front. A second reinforcing front will
be moving through tomorrow. Surface high pressure building down into
the state along with an almost zonal flow aloft should help to main-
tain the cool/quiet/dry air mass over SE TX through the short term.

As for temperatures, highs today will be in the mid and upper 70s as
mostly sunny skies prevail. Lows tonight should range from the upper
40s across the northern most counties (Piney Woods) to the lower and
mid 50s for much of the rest of the CWA...around 60 at the immediate
coast. The secondary surge of even cooler/drier air will lower highs
tomorrow to the upper 60s to lower 70...with lows from the upper 30s
north to the lower to mid 40s central/south (mid 50s at the beaches).
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

High pressure will build across Southeast TX Thursday, resulting
in benign conditions, light winds, and sunny skies. The highs on
Thursday will be generally in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide
and will feel pretty dry as dewpoints fall into the upper 20s to
mid 30s over the inland portions. The low temperatures Thursday
night will warm up a little and range between the low to mid 40s
over areas north of I-10 (upper 30s in the Piney Woods), the mid
to upper 40s along and south of I-10, and the low to mid 50s along
the coast. A similar weather pattern is to be expected on Friday.

For the upcoming weekend, the high pressure will shift to our east
northeast, allowing for the return of southerly flow. Consequently,
we will see a gradual rise in temperatures through early next week
and the highs may increase back into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Monday. Low level moisture and instability may remain low enough to
keep us rain free during the weekend. As moisture increases early
next week, however, we may see a slight uptick in rain chances.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Patchy dense fog will continue to be an issue the next few hours. But
we`ll likely see an end to these IFR/LIFR restrictions by mid morning
or so as the cool/dry air mass deepens further. VFR thereafter. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Winds and seas will continue to subside today, however, a dry
reinforcing front pushing off the coast sometime late tonight into
early Wednesday will usher in strong offshore winds (20-25 kt) and
elevated seas (6-9 ft) in its wake. Caution flags and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed from early Wednesday to early
Thursday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Thursday night into
Friday as high pressure builds across the region. Onshore flow is
expected to return this weekend and may increase late Saturday into
early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 49 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 54 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 61 69 55 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cotto

[DoctorMu]

Chamber of Commerce weather is in store through Saturday in CLL. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low DP. Good enough.

A warm-up Sunday and early week, followed by a FROPA around Thanksgiving. Opinions vary - GFS slides the coldest weather east, while the EURO-AI goes for the gusto. CMC - I thought you'd be bigger.

[tireman4]

017
FXUS64 KHGX 192027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

A secondary front will bring a reinforcement of colder and drier air
as it moves through early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight into
Wednesday morning will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees across
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Elsewhere, lows will be in the
low to mid 50s. Persistent northwesterly winds, gusty at times, will
continue to draw colder air in for Wednesday, and will keep highs
across the area in the 60s to near 70 degrees (highest temperatures
in the southernmost counties).

Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be even colder with
lows across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods dropping into the mid
to upper 30s. Closer to the Metro expect lows in the low to mid 40s
and in the low 50s along the coast. High pressure will build over SE
Texas on Thursday, leading to light winds and generally sunny skies.
Additionally, winds will lose their northerly component for much of
the area which will allow temperatures to recover, slightly, into
the upper 60s to low 70s. Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Dry weather is expected well into the weekend. Surface high
pressure will be settling southward into the region Thursday
followed by another weak reinforcing high pressure area sagging
into the area Friday. The combination of mostly clear skies, low
dewpoints and fairly light winds will favor about a 30F temperature
spread each day (40s/70s) in Saturday. Southeast/south winds will
resume this weekend as high pressure moves off to the east and
Lee Side pressures fall. As this takes place, look for a gradual
warming trend to ensue along with a bit more cloud cover as we
head into Sunday and early next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

VFR prevailing through the period. Light, generally northwesterly
winds will become light and variable this evening. Winds will
increase in the early morning hours of Wednesday from northwest to
southeast as a reinforcing front moves through. Sustained winds of
10-15 kts with gusts up to near 30 kts at times. LLWS will also
be possible from around 09Z to 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Small Craft Advisories have been posted for late tonight & Wednesday
as a cold front makes its way across the waters. Look for a steady
increase in north winds after about 2am - and especially into
sunrise and mid morning hours. Look for a corresponding increase
in seas as well. Winds and seas will begin to diminish Wednesday
night and Thursday. As high pressure moves off to the east, light
southeast winds will resume Saturday then gradually increase Sunday
into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 69 55 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-
335.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

865
FXUS64 KHGX 201137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

No issues for the short-term. The passage of a secondary cold front
overnight will bring moderate/strong CAA across the region today. A
breezy N/NW flow along with clear skies should lead to highs in the
mid to upper 60s today. Winds are expected to decrease tonight with
lows ranging from the mid and upper 30s for most locations over the
CWA...lower to mid 40s in/around the Houston metro and at the imme-
diate coast.

As surface high pressure settles across the region on Thurs and the
pressure gradient weakens, the offshore winds will be decreasing in
response. Look for another cool/dry/quiet day tomorrow with highs a
degree or two warmer than today...from the upper 60s to around 70.
Lows tomorrow night should be similar to that of tonight...with the
slightly warmer readings in/around urban areas. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most locations...from the
mid to upper 40s for H-town proper and the coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

There is the hint of a very weak cold front passing through and
stalling near the I-45 corridor Friday morning, but will not do much
for us except maybe a more defined temperature gradient between the
areas east and west of I-45 along with maintaining northerly flow
over Southeast TX. We could see high temperatures in the mid 60s to
lower 70s over areas along and east of I-45 and the low to mid 70s
for areas west of I -45. Another area of high pressure may build
over Texas on Friday. The lows on Friday will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, in the mid to
upper 40s over the rest of the inland portions, and in the mid 50s
to low 60s along the coasts.

Southerly flow is expected to return this weekend as the high
pressure moves away and we will likely see a gradual rise in
temperatures through early next week. In fact, the high temperatures
may bounce back into the low to mid 80s by Monday. Models are
hinting at a possible cold front sometime mid-week as a weak upper
level trough moves across the Southern Plains. We will need to wait
a little more and see if the front will actually have enough support
for it to pass through Southeast Texas, given the current mid/upper
level set up. If it does, we may get better rain chances ahead of
and along the front as well as a slight decrease in temperatures
during the mid week period.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Mainly a wind forecast. Did keep with a few hours of LLWS through
the pre-dawn hours with the strong/gusty NNW winds mixing down to
the surface for the rest of the day/afternoon. Winds should event-
ually decrease this evening (on into the overnight hours) as high
pressure settles over the region. Otherwise, VFR. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Winds and seas will be on the rise today in the wake of a dry
reinforcing front pushing off the coast this morning. Expect
offshore winds of 20-25 kt along with seas 6-9 ft today. Small Craft
Advisories are now in effect for the waters. Winds and seas will
gradually subside tonight into Thursday with light offshore winds
persisting through Friday. Onshore flow is expected to return this
weekend and may increase late Saturday into early next week as the
pressure gradient tightens.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 44 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 56 68 55 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-
335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cotto

[DoctorMu]

Another Chamber of Commerce Day.

57°F sunny in a crystal blue sky with a high of 67°F. DP of 40°F. N13. This is a Gainesville, FL winter day. Or late October in NC. It doesn't get any better than this. Bottle it up.

After a low of about 37°F tonight there will be a very gradual warm-up through Saturday, before return flow on Sunday. No rain in sight through next Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

A lot of Zonal flow until early December, where Euro and GFS are picking up a more arctic FROPA rather than another Pacific front. We'll see.

[Pas_Bon]

A lot of Zonal flow until early December, where Euro and GFS are picking up a more arctic FROPA rather than another Pacific front. We'll see.

We deserve this so much.

[Stratton20]

Warm weather lovers, you’re days are becoming limited , enjoy the next 7 days because winter is coming and is planning on sticking around long term

[tireman4]

745
FXUS64 KHGX 202116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Continued quiet weather through the short-term period. The arrival
of a secondary cold front has brought with it NNW winds and cooler
temps. Clear skies and NNW winds will allow nighttime temperatures
to cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of SE Texas. Make
sure to bundle up before heading out to school or work Thursday
morning, and Friday morning for that matter, as temperatures will be
only a touch warmer.

Gusty winds will become light and variable tonight as the pressure
gradient relaxes and high pressure settles in overhead. Thursday
will feature similar weather, though a couple degrees warmer as
winds across much of the area lose the northerly component. Skies
will be mostly sunny to clear.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Surface high pressure dipping south across the Southern Plains is
progged to push a weak, diffuse frontal boundary into SE Texas on
Friday. This boundary appears to be largely confided to areas north
of the I-10 corridor, and may help amplify the temperature gradient
across the area. This is highlighted by the LREF ensemble, which
shows a slightly greater spread in temperatures north of the I-10
corridor Friday afternoon. Daytime highs are progged to range from
the upper 60s across portions of the Piney Woods area to our
Northeast, to the mid/upper 70s over our Southwestern zones near
Edna/Palacios.

Winds begin to shift east/southeasterly Friday night as surface high
pressure pushes eastward towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
This will slowly establish onshore flow into Saturday, facilitating
WAA and moisture advection into the beginning of next week. PWs are
low, but are progged to slowly trickle up above 1" by next week. LREF
soundings indicate that much of this moisture is focused in the
lower levels, with 65-70% low level RH. With isentropic lifting in
place, there is potential for isolated streamer showers to develop
near the coast. However, confidence and spatial coverage is too low
to warrant the mention of any substantial PoPs during this period.
Lows for Sunday night/Monday morning should be in the 60s to lower
70s along the coast. Highs are progged to peak on Monday, ranging
from the upper 70s to upper 80s.

The slew of long-range guidance suggest that a series of
shortwaves/troughs will dig across portions of the Northwestern
CONUS/Northern Plains, beginning on Sunday and becoming more
prominent around mid week. Deterministic models indicate that a weak
cold front will push into SE Texas Monday Night/early Tuesday,
eventually stalling out somewhere over the area before subsequently
drifting north. While guidance continues to trend cooler and drier
with this boundary, it will still be weak/diffuse in nature. The
series of disturbances in the mid/upper levels are confined to the
central/northern CONUS during this period. At the same time, WPC`s
500mb cluster analysis shows positive height anomalies across much
of the southern CONUS the in dominant clusters, indicative of higher
heights. Bottom line, this next front is poised to bring a modest
cooldown, though temperatures will remain around or even slightly
above normal. Tuesday`s highs will be in the 70s/lower 80s.
Overnight lows drop into 50s/lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s
along the coast.

Cluster 1 of the LREF ensemble members features lower 500mb heights
over the Western CONUS beginning on Wednesday. WPC`s 500mb height
anomaly cluster analysis depicts a similar situation for Wednesday
when looking at clusters 2 & 3. These lower heights/negative
anomalies among ensemble clusters become more pronounced across the
central CONUS in the days following. Taking at look at ensemble
surface dewpoints for KGLS, the majority of members suggest that
moisture won`t drop significantly until Thursday (Day 9). All of
this would suggest that the next stronger front/cool off remains on
the horizon, beyond the current 7 day forecast.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Strong/gusty NNW winds will continue through the afternoon hours.
Expect winds to become light and variable this evening into the
overnight hours as the pressure gradient relaxes, and high
pressure settles in. VFR will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon for northerly
winds of 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots and seas of 5 to 9
feet. Winds and seas should slowly diminish tonight, though
caution flags may be warranted offshore through Thursday morning.
Onshore winds slowly returns Friday evening, then strengthens
into next week, necessitating Caution Flags or Small Craft
Advisories at times.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 38 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

[tireman4]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

Indeed. Chilly. Watch out for Richmond Randle In Division 5 A 2 Region III..

[Cpv17]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

Indeed. Chilly. Watch out for Richmond Randle In Division 5 A 2 Region III..

Had a chance to watch Randle play earlier this season. They’re elite. My friend’s son is their QB and they have a sophomore RB that already has almost 40 D1 offers.

[Cpv17]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

My uncle is from Mason so I get to hear about Punchers football all the time lol they have a really good team this year.

[tireman4]

Round 2 of HS playoffs should be chilly in Georgetown Friday night. 50s at kickoff and into the 40s for end of game between Weimar and Mason.

Indeed. Chilly. Watch out for Richmond Randle In Division 5 A 2 Region III..

Had a chance to watch Randle play earlier this season. They’re elite. My friend’s son is their QB and they have a sophomore RB that already has almost 40 D1 offers.

Theu pasted my high school, Santa Fe, 68 to 0. My son's high school, Summer Creek, is really good too. We will be at the East TISCA Invitational Swim Meet Thursday and Friday, so no football for us.