November 2024

[tireman4]

16
FXUS64 KHGX 141956
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Ridging aloft across the Plains and broad surface high pressure at
the surface will keep quiet weather in place across SE Texas through
the end of the work week. With clear skies and light offshore flow,
lows tonight/Friday morning will be in the lower 40s/lower 50s
inland and mid 50s/lower 60s along the coast. Portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below 40 degrees. The
aforementioned ridge axis aloft and associated surface high are
expected to drift easterly throughout the day on Friday. As a
result, winds will veer southeasterly Friday evening, initiating WAA
and moisture return heading into the weekend. Highs for Friday will
be in the 70s, with isolated spots approaching the 80 degree mark.
Lows for Friday night/Saturday morning will be in the 40s/mid 50s
inland and upper 50s/mid 60s along the coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Onshore flow returns by Saturday as surface high pressure drifts
northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley and ridging aloft
persists. As a result, we`ll see a gradual increasing trend in
temperatures and low-level moisture over the weekend. By Sunday,
we`ll have high temperatures back in the low to mid 80s along with
chances for scattered WAA rain showers west of I-45. Overnight low
temperatures will see a similar climb as well. You know how high
temperatures are in the 70s for most of the short term period?
Yeah...that`s gonna be our LOW temperatures Sunday night. Gotta love
good ol` WAA, overcast clouds, and breezy winds overnight preventing
our temperatures from seeing much in the way of "cooling". On the
plus side, we`ll only have one night of absurdly warm overnight
temperatures as we have our next cold front on the way that looks to
bring us the coldest air of the season so far.

Let`s dive deeper into this cold front...first up is what`s causing
it. An embedded upper level low moving eastward across the
southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico over the weekend will generate
surface cyclogenesis in west Texas late Sunday/early Monday. This
tightens up the pressure gradient leading to increasing
southeasterly winds along with increasing low-level moisture within
the warm sector of the developing low. That`ll be the cause of the
streamer showers on Sunday and into Monday ahead of the front.
There`ll be quite the strong LLJ extending from central Texas to
north Texas on Sunday night/Monday, and some of those strong winds
aloft (40-50 kts) will extend into the Brazos Valley. There won`t be
much instability to pair with this excess of speed shear, but there
will likely be enough shear for at least a small chance for an
isolated thunderstorm ahead of the front to be capable of some gusty
winds. The SPC has a 15% probability (equivalent of a slight level
2 out of 5 risk) on Monday just to our northwest, so it wouldn`t
surprise me to see a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for portions
of the Brazos Valley due to the strong wind potential if these
trends hold as the event nears.

Timing for the surface front looks to generally be on Monday
afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms along the frontal
boundary. PW values will surge up to 1.7-2.0" along the boundary, so
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger
showers/storms. This should be a fast moving front though given the
temperature gradient behind it. We`ll see low temperatures fall into
the 50s/60s on Monday night, but the real push of cold air happens
on Tuesday afternoon with the passage of the 850mb front. After that
front, high temperatures will be relegated to the 60s for high
temperatures (and maybe even the upper 50s north of I-10). Low
temperatures are expected to be the coldest of the season so far
with lows in the 40s/50s on Tuesday night and in the 30s/40s on
Wednesday/Thursday night. It hasn`t felt like fall much this
season, so I`m checking off as much as I can on my cold weather
list: drinking hot cocoa, baking cookies, Christmas movie
marathons (I know we haven`t made it to Thanksgiving yet....don`t
@ me), and wearing jackets/hoodies/sweaters ALL day rather than
just in the morning time.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1052 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Light north/northeast winds, occasionally gusty along the coast,
should decrease this evening, veering easterly through Friday
morning. VFR conditions prevailing.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will gradually decrease
throughout the day. Caution flags remain up for the Gulf waters
through the afternoon hours, but those will drop off before sunset.
Winds gradually become more easterly by Friday, then southeasterly
by Saturday morning leading to onshore flow prevailing into early
next week. This persistent onshore flow combined with the full moon
will lead to elevated tide levels. During high tide, water levels
could get up to ~4 ft above MLLW beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will be likely for this
time period. Winds and seas begin to increase on Sunday ahead of the
next approaching storm system that will bring us our next cold front
on late Monday/early Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany the front as it passes through. Advisories and/or
caution flags will be needed both ahead of the front and certainly
afterwards. Strong northerly winds and elevated seas will prevail in
the wake of the front with the potential for some wind gusts to gale
force through midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 75 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 48 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

[DoctorMu]

Jetstream Forecast

Don't be so sure about stability. That's quite a buckle. And DPs will be in the 70s ahead of the storm and FROPA.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian and Euro tease us with the first frost/freeze?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Canadian and Euro tease us with the first frost/freeze?

Give it to me!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu ill take a freeze

[tireman4]

263
FXUS64 KHGX 151107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 232 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

High pressure remains dominate over the region today providing us
with seasonal high temperatures, sunny skies, and dry conditions.
Afternoon temperatures today will rise into the mid 70s for most
of the region (Piney Woods will be a tad cooler in the low 70s,
and areas near Matagorda Bay will be a tad warmer in the high
70s). The high pressure will begin to shift to the east this
evening causing a wind shift to the east and the southeast through
the night. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures tonight
compared to last night with lows in the low to mid 50s for much of
the region. Again the Piney Woods will be our coolest area with
lows in the 40s, and the coast will staying warmer - only getting
down into the upper 50s to low 60s.

The warming trend continues on Saturday as the the southeasterly
flow persists at the surface and we get southwesterly flow aloft.
Afternoon highs will be be in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of
the region. The southeasterly flow will also pump increased
moisture into the area, so expect increasing cloud cover through
the day as well. The increase in moisture will lead to scattered
showers developing over the coastal waters Saturday evening and
may move onto the coast by late Saturday night. There will be a 10
to 15 degree temperature bump Saturday night with lows getting
down into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Sunday will be humid, cloudy, and fairly warm for this time of
the year. The high temperatures will generally be in the upper
70s over the Piney Woods region and in the low 80s over the rest
of Southeast Texas, which is roughly 10-12 degrees above normal
areawide. The local pressure gradient will tighten during the day,
and with a developing LLJ of about 30 kts moving overhead,
conditions will be breezy, and at times, gusty. Quick passing
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be
expected during the day, in particular over areas west of I-45.
Overnight temperatures on Sunday night wont bring any kind of
relief, with lows roughly in the upper 60s to low 70s over the
Brazos Valley and the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Luckily, a mid level trough (or closed low) will move
northeastward from West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Monday
morning and an associated cold front will then make its way into
Central Texas. Rain chances will increase over portions of
Southeast Texas during the morning as the front approaches the
Brazos Valley region. Ahead and along the boundary, we are
expecting scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms and some locations can see periods of heavy
rainfall. The cold front is expected to move across Southeast
Texas rather quickly during the afternoon hours, with the boundary
moving into our coastal locations by the evening hours. This will
help minimize the flood impacts we may have during the day.
Regardless, some ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor
drainage can occur.

Temperatures will be cooling down Monday night with lows reaching
the low 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the
mid 50s to low 60s over the rest of the inland portions, and the
mid to upper 60s along the coast. The high temperatures on Tuesday
only lower a few degrees, ranging mostly in the mid 70s to low 80s
areawide. However, a mid to upper level trough is expected to move
across the Southern Plains during the day and could either bring
us a reinforcing cold front and/or stronger CAA. Hopefully, we can
get even cooler temperatures during the second half of the work
week. At this time, the forecast carries highs in the 60s for most
of our inland portions. Wednesday night will be our coldest
night, with lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s over areas
north of I-10, the low to mid 40 over areas along and south of
I-10, and the low 50s along the coast. It will be breezy as well,
so conditions would feel a few degrees colder than the lows. High
pressure will keep us rain free and sunny on Thursday along with
highs mainly in the low to mid 60s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail with easterly winds developing this morning
around 5-9kt becoming southeasterly through the afternoon. Light
and variable winds overnight with some mid and high level clouds
returning by Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Light east winds expected this morning, becoming onshore later
today. Onshore winds are expected to increase and seas will rise
Sunday and Monday as the local pressure gradient tightens and a
low level jet develops overhead. Caution flags and Small Craft
Advisories will be needed. In addition, the strong onshore flow
is expected to result in rises in the water levels and may cause
minor coastal flooding during the next few high tide cycles. A
Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through this evening and may
likely be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory later today, if
needed. There will also be the risk for strong rip currents along
the Gulf facing beaches.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into
Monday, ahead of the next cold frontal passage. This front is
progged to push off the coast sometime Monday evening, ushering in
north northwest winds in its wake. Strong gusty winds and wind
driven seas will develop on Wednesday and continue into Thursday.
Additional Advisories will likely be needed. Winds and seas
gradually subside Thursday night into Friday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 48 79 64 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 75 53 78 68 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 66 79 73 / 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[jasons2k]

Canadian and Euro tease us with the first frost/freeze?

I like the GFS better on this

[Cpv17]

Canadian and Euro tease us with the first frost/freeze?

I like the GFS better on this

Same here.

[mcheer23]

The models are backing off a bit on the cooler air coming in the middle of next week, trending about 8-10 degrees warmer.
The 12z Euro shows a strong cold front pushing through just after Thanksgiving, but we'll see if this continues to show up, as it's still two weeks away.

[don]

After Sunday/Mondays storm this will be the wettest November on record for Wichita Falls, only need .25 more to beat the record. With the main threat being flooding and a conditional threat for severe weather if there is enough instability as the shear looks to be off the charts. Regardless the upper level cyclone itself looks to be potent , with models showing non thunderstorm winds gusting up to 60 mph on the backside, as the pressure drops into the upper 980's. In fact the EURO shows winds gusting up to 70 mph on the backside of the low. Probably overdone. I do think winds gusting into the 50's is possible though.The weather here is very dynamic and I love that.

[DoctorMu]

Warm front blasting through. Yuck. Go away!

[DoctorMu]

After Sunday/Mondays storm this will be the wettest November on record for Wichita Falls, only need .25 more to beat the record. With the main threat being flooding and a conditional threat for severe weather if there is enough instability as the shear looks to be off the charts. Regardless the upper level cyclone itself looks to be potent , with models showing non thunderstorm winds gusting up to 60 mph on the backside, as the pressure drops into the upper 980's. In fact the EURO shows winds gusting up to 70 mph on the backside of the low. Probably overdone. I do think winds gusting into the 50's is possible though.The weather here is very dynamic and I love that.

980s. Woah.

We still have 30s for lows Wed. and Thur. night. Maybe a light frost on the grass. Brown patch is here. It might as well go dormant for the winter.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian and Euro tease us with the first frost/freeze?

I like the GFS better on this

Same here.

90% of the year in SETX has 60s, 70s, even 80s°F for lows. Let us have our week or two.

[jasons2k]

Icon Thursday morning:

[jasons2k]

Woke up to .80” overnight.
I’ll take it!

[DoctorMu]

Woke up to 80°F overnight.

72°F DP. Yuck! No rain.

[Stratton20]

80 here with 90 % humidity, i really cannot hide my hatred for thus weather, its completely miserable with all the mosquitoes around

[Cpv17]

80 here with 90 % humidity, i really cannot hide my hatred for thus weather, its completely miserable with all the mosquitoes around

We have very few mosquitoes out here.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah, as soon as i step outside im already getting bitten, backyard is wet so that definitely doesnt help me lol

[brazoriatx]

Man this soup has got to go! Any updates on that cold from after Thanksgiving?