Completely agree. Today was beautiful. Very comfortable temps.
November 2024
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
In san antonio for a few days, still in the low 70’s and feeling soupy outside, absolutely disgusting, bring on the cold!
The summer that refuses to die.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cromagnum i know, this weather is utter garbage, thankfully summer dies for good late next week, wintwr is showing its first hand!
I just went for a walk. It’s absolutely beautiful outside today. Enjoy!! 
The dew point is 54°. Some drier air mixed down last night. Today feels good. Have a walk/run planned for the evening. It should be about 70°F then.
Just keep the DP below 60°F and I'm good. Thursday and Friday look about 5°F cooler and dry. More humid weekend.
Will check on next week's FROPA.
Just keep the DP below 60°F and I'm good. Thursday and Friday look about 5°F cooler and dry. More humid weekend.
Will check on next week's FROPA.
Models are mixed at intensity, number of FROPA next week. CMC bring the first frost of the season on the 22nd to CLL. We'll see.
Oh, and another Florida hurricane - Looks more like Ft. Meyers and Naples as targets.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
769
FXUS64 KHGX 131133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
The cold front is currently located just west of San Antonio in a
line from Del Rio to the Wichita Falls area. It will continue its
eastward progression through the day today, reaching the western
fringe of our border early this afternoon. This should give time for
locations across SE Texas to heat into the 80s before the FROPA. The
FROPA will nudge the temperatures down to more seasonal temperatures
for Thursday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s north of I-
10 and to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-10. PW values
will be well below 1.0", so not expecting this front to produce
much, if any rain.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
The cooler and dry weather will continue into Friday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft remains in place with high temperatures
in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, and then mid to upper 70s down
to the coast. Friday night will remain on the chillier side thanks
to low winds and clear skies, but the winds do begin to become more
easterly allowing for slightly warmer temperatures compared to the
previous night. Piney Woods region will see lows in the low to mid
40s, then mid to upper 40s north of Harris County, then low to mid
50s along I-10 to the coast. This warming trend will continue
through the weekend as the surface and upper level high pressures
slide to the east allowing for southeasterly winds to bring warmer
temperatures. High temperatures Saturday will be about 5 degrees
warmer than Friday, and then another few degrees going into Sunday.
Influence from the upperlevel ridging truly diminishes on Sunday
allowing for PWATs to rise across SE Texas, so cannot out-rule an
isolated streamer shower or two Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile further to the west, a large upper level low will be
swinging through Baja California Sunday into Monday. It will track
up through the Central and Northern Plains through Tuesday, but it
will cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity here in SE
Texas Monday into Tuesday as WAA and moisture advection increases
ahead of the associated cold front. This cold front is currently
expected to pass through our area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night (though at day 7, this is subject to change a bit... but there
is quite good agreement already in the guidance on the strength and
timing of this front). Expect the coldest weather of the season so
midweek next week following this cold front.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
VFR prevailing through the period. Light and variable winds will
become northwesterly this afternoon with the arrival of a cold
front. Winds are expected to remain below 10 kts for much of the
area; however, gusts to around 25kts will be possible at GLS.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Light offshore winds and low seas will persist through this evening,
then a weak cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight.
This will usher in north-northwesterly winds of around 20kt that
increase seas to around 3-5ft. Small craft will likely need to
exercise caution tonight through late Thursday morning, and a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed if there are frequent gusts to 25kt.
Winds and seas decrease Thursday afternoon, then light easterly
winds develop Friday before becoming southeasterly over the weekend
and into next week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
return to the forecast by late Sunday and continue through Tuesday
morning. The onshore winds will increase Monday into Tuesday,
possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories, ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move through the coastal waters late Tuesday.
Strong northeasterly winds are possible behind this cold front.
The persistent onshore flow and the full moon will lead to an
increase in tidal levels beginning later this week. P-ETSS guidance
has high tides reaching around 4 ft above MLLW on Friday and
Saturday, and its likely this tidal levels will remain through the
start of next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 50 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 63 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 131133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
The cold front is currently located just west of San Antonio in a
line from Del Rio to the Wichita Falls area. It will continue its
eastward progression through the day today, reaching the western
fringe of our border early this afternoon. This should give time for
locations across SE Texas to heat into the 80s before the FROPA. The
FROPA will nudge the temperatures down to more seasonal temperatures
for Thursday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s north of I-
10 and to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-10. PW values
will be well below 1.0", so not expecting this front to produce
much, if any rain.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
The cooler and dry weather will continue into Friday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft remains in place with high temperatures
in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, and then mid to upper 70s down
to the coast. Friday night will remain on the chillier side thanks
to low winds and clear skies, but the winds do begin to become more
easterly allowing for slightly warmer temperatures compared to the
previous night. Piney Woods region will see lows in the low to mid
40s, then mid to upper 40s north of Harris County, then low to mid
50s along I-10 to the coast. This warming trend will continue
through the weekend as the surface and upper level high pressures
slide to the east allowing for southeasterly winds to bring warmer
temperatures. High temperatures Saturday will be about 5 degrees
warmer than Friday, and then another few degrees going into Sunday.
Influence from the upperlevel ridging truly diminishes on Sunday
allowing for PWATs to rise across SE Texas, so cannot out-rule an
isolated streamer shower or two Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile further to the west, a large upper level low will be
swinging through Baja California Sunday into Monday. It will track
up through the Central and Northern Plains through Tuesday, but it
will cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity here in SE
Texas Monday into Tuesday as WAA and moisture advection increases
ahead of the associated cold front. This cold front is currently
expected to pass through our area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night (though at day 7, this is subject to change a bit... but there
is quite good agreement already in the guidance on the strength and
timing of this front). Expect the coldest weather of the season so
midweek next week following this cold front.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
VFR prevailing through the period. Light and variable winds will
become northwesterly this afternoon with the arrival of a cold
front. Winds are expected to remain below 10 kts for much of the
area; however, gusts to around 25kts will be possible at GLS.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Light offshore winds and low seas will persist through this evening,
then a weak cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight.
This will usher in north-northwesterly winds of around 20kt that
increase seas to around 3-5ft. Small craft will likely need to
exercise caution tonight through late Thursday morning, and a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed if there are frequent gusts to 25kt.
Winds and seas decrease Thursday afternoon, then light easterly
winds develop Friday before becoming southeasterly over the weekend
and into next week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
return to the forecast by late Sunday and continue through Tuesday
morning. The onshore winds will increase Monday into Tuesday,
possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories, ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move through the coastal waters late Tuesday.
Strong northeasterly winds are possible behind this cold front.
The persistent onshore flow and the full moon will lead to an
increase in tidal levels beginning later this week. P-ETSS guidance
has high tides reaching around 4 ft above MLLW on Friday and
Saturday, and its likely this tidal levels will remain through the
start of next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 50 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 63 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
The cool front just passed here winds immediately starting gusting to 30mph the wind is actually whistling outside.
Next weeks storm looks potent with significant cyclogenesis occurring. In fact, I would say the storm early next week screams tornado outbreak in the southern plains.With the models showing a very high sheared environment. The only thing holding things back is that instability appears to be on the low side. Will need to be watched closely…
With another front moving in after the potent system moves out early next week. There are still questions, though when it comes to how cold the air will be behind the second front mid next week. As models are not in complete agreement on how the trough sets up. An interesting week ahead.
Next weeks storm looks potent with significant cyclogenesis occurring. In fact, I would say the storm early next week screams tornado outbreak in the southern plains.With the models showing a very high sheared environment. The only thing holding things back is that instability appears to be on the low side. Will need to be watched closely…
With another front moving in after the potent system moves out early next week. There are still questions, though when it comes to how cold the air will be behind the second front mid next week. As models are not in complete agreement on how the trough sets up. An interesting week ahead.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
495
FXUS64 KHGX 132036
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
236 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Today`s dry cold front is currently moving through portions of the
Brazos Valley, and should push offshore late tonight. This will
usher in cooler and drier conditions, with lows for
tonight/Thursday morning in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper
50s/60s along the coast. Highs on Thursday are progged to largely
be in the 70s, though isolated spots could break the 80 degree
mark in our southwest areas. For Thursday night/Friday morning,
lows will be in the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and mid 50s/lower
60s along the coast. Portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area may see lows in the upper 30s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Broad surface high pressure centered over the Mississippi River
Valley with Ridging across the Central CONUS will allow for benign
weather to continue across SE Texas on Friday. The surface high and
upper ridge axis are expected to drift easterly during the day,
allowing winds to slowly veer southeasterly. The return of onshore
flow will usher in short warming trend over the weekend, with highs
reaching the upper 70s/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s/lower 70s.
An approaching upper level low near Baja California will bring
strengthening onshore flow, increasing moisture and rain chances
from Sunday into the beginning of next week. Scattered showers and
storms with rising cloud cover will keep temperatures on the
cooler side for Monday, with highs in the mid 70s/lower 80s. The
aforementioned upper level low will fill northeasterly through the
Plains, draping a strong cold front across SE Texas sometime
Monday night/Tuesday afternoon. Scattered storms can be expected
along/ahead of the front, with cold and dry conditions developing
in it`s wake. Based on current guidance, this system should bring
the coldest temperatures of the season. (so far!)
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Westerly winds will shift northwesterly later today as a dry cold
front pushes across SE Texas. Gusty winds will develop at KGLS
overnight as the front pushes offshore, though inland areas will
see winds generally remain around or under 10 knots. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Light, mostly offshore winds and low seas can be expected through
this evening ahead of a dry cold front. This cold front will push
offshore around 10pm-Midnight tonight, bringing offshore winds
around 20 knots gusting to 25 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet. Winds
begin to decrease Thursday morning, veering southeasterly on
Friday. The full moon, combined with returning onshore flow,
should bring increased tidal levels of 4 ft above MLLW during this
period. Winds should strengthen throughout the weekend as the
next weather system develops near Baja California, bringing
elevated wave heights and tidal levels into the beginning of next
week. Caution flags may be needed Saturday night, with Small
Craft Advisories possibly needed by Sunday night. Rain chances
return on Sunday, increasing into Monday ahead of a cold front.
This cold front should move off the coast by Tuesday night,
bringing strong northerly winds in it`s wake.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 75 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 132036
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
236 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Today`s dry cold front is currently moving through portions of the
Brazos Valley, and should push offshore late tonight. This will
usher in cooler and drier conditions, with lows for
tonight/Thursday morning in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper
50s/60s along the coast. Highs on Thursday are progged to largely
be in the 70s, though isolated spots could break the 80 degree
mark in our southwest areas. For Thursday night/Friday morning,
lows will be in the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and mid 50s/lower
60s along the coast. Portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area may see lows in the upper 30s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Broad surface high pressure centered over the Mississippi River
Valley with Ridging across the Central CONUS will allow for benign
weather to continue across SE Texas on Friday. The surface high and
upper ridge axis are expected to drift easterly during the day,
allowing winds to slowly veer southeasterly. The return of onshore
flow will usher in short warming trend over the weekend, with highs
reaching the upper 70s/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s/lower 70s.
An approaching upper level low near Baja California will bring
strengthening onshore flow, increasing moisture and rain chances
from Sunday into the beginning of next week. Scattered showers and
storms with rising cloud cover will keep temperatures on the
cooler side for Monday, with highs in the mid 70s/lower 80s. The
aforementioned upper level low will fill northeasterly through the
Plains, draping a strong cold front across SE Texas sometime
Monday night/Tuesday afternoon. Scattered storms can be expected
along/ahead of the front, with cold and dry conditions developing
in it`s wake. Based on current guidance, this system should bring
the coldest temperatures of the season. (so far!)
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Westerly winds will shift northwesterly later today as a dry cold
front pushes across SE Texas. Gusty winds will develop at KGLS
overnight as the front pushes offshore, though inland areas will
see winds generally remain around or under 10 knots. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024
Light, mostly offshore winds and low seas can be expected through
this evening ahead of a dry cold front. This cold front will push
offshore around 10pm-Midnight tonight, bringing offshore winds
around 20 knots gusting to 25 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet. Winds
begin to decrease Thursday morning, veering southeasterly on
Friday. The full moon, combined with returning onshore flow,
should bring increased tidal levels of 4 ft above MLLW during this
period. Winds should strengthen throughout the weekend as the
next weather system develops near Baja California, bringing
elevated wave heights and tidal levels into the beginning of next
week. Caution flags may be needed Saturday night, with Small
Craft Advisories possibly needed by Sunday night. Rain chances
return on Sunday, increasing into Monday ahead of a cold front.
This cold front should move off the coast by Tuesday night,
bringing strong northerly winds in it`s wake.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 75 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
Thank goodness instability appears to be minimum, otherwise we would be talking about a big severe weather outbreak in Texas with next weeks storm.
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-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
tireman4 thats very interesting
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
090
FXUS64 KHGX 141150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Benign weather continues through the short-term. Northerly winds
today will continue to usher in dry and cool air which will keep
temperatures in the 70s area wide. Clear skies and calm northerly
winds tonight will accompany lows in the upper 30s to 40s north of I-
10 (coldest lows in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods). South of I-
10 lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Winds will become more easterly on Friday, allowing moisture to
return to SE Texas, and result in a slight increase in daytime
temperatures. Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer with
majority of the area still in the 70s and a few locations in the
southern tier counties touching the low 80s. Lows for Friday night
into Saturday morning will be in the 40s to low 50s north of I-10
and in the mid 50s to low 60s south of I-10.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
The surface high pressure and upper-level ridge will be moving
to the east over the weekend leading to southeasterly flow at the
surface and southwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to increasing
temperatures and moisture into the region. Saturday is still looking
rather pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s north
of I-10 and east of I-45, and then low 80s for the southwestern
parts of the region. Skies will start out mostly sunny, but there
will be increasing clouds Saturday night. Overnight temperatures
Saturday night will see the biggest bump with lows 10-15 degrees
warmer than Friday night with most of the region in the mid to upper
60s (a little cooler in the Piney Woods, and a little warmer along
the coast). The warming trend continues Sunday with temperatures
rising a few more degrees, and there could be some isolated light
streamer showers as the moisture advection increases from the
onshore flow. There will be a large upper level low swinging through
northern Mexico and up through the Central Plains Sunday into Monday
with a strengthening surface low.
WAA out ahead of the associated cold front will lead to increasing
chance of showers and isolated storms Monday and Monday night for SE
Texas. This cold front will move through the region on Tuesday
ushering in our coldest airmass of the season so far. The timing of
this front has sped up a bit in the guidance, coming through earlier
Tuesday rather than late Tuesday, and I wouldn`t be shocked a trend
even earlier as the strong temperature gradient will lead to a fast
moving front. High temperatures on Tuesday will be highly dependent
on the timing of the front: an earlier front will keep temperatures
in the low to mid 70s, a later front will allow for temperatures
to get into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will drop down to the 40s north of the Houston Metro, and low to mid
50s in the Metro and south of I-10. A reinforcing 850mb cold front
will move through on Wednesday ushering in even colder conditions.
Highs will stay ing the low to mid 60s, and low temperatures
Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 40s for much of the region
with the Piney Woods will likely drop into the upper 30s. There will
be breezy winds, especially along the coast, late Tuesday through
Wednesday that will make temperatures feel like they are in the 30s
at night across inland areas, and low 40s at the coast.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the
north/northeast and variable at times with the exception of GLS
terminal. GLS will have winds of 15-20kts this morning, with gusts
to 25 kts at times. Winds should decrease to less than 15 kts this
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
A weak cold front will moved yesterday evening ushering in
moderate to occasionally strong north-northwesterly winds of around
20kt with gusts to 25kt increasing seas to around 3-5ft. Small Craft
Advisories continue through the mid-morning this morning, and Small
Craft in the Gulf waters may need exercise caution through this
evening. Winds become light by tonight, then becoming easterly on
Friday and then southeasterly over the weekend and into next week.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast
by late Sunday and continue through Tuesday morning. The onshore
winds will increase Monday into Tuesday, possibly requiring Small
Craft Advisories, ahead of an approaching cold front that will move
through the coastal waters Tuesday. Strong northeasterly winds
are possible behind this cold front.
The persistent onshore flow and the full moon will lead to an
increase in tidal levels beginning later this week. P-ETSS guidance
has high tides reaching around 4 ft above MLLW on Friday and
Saturday, and above 4ft late Sunday with tidal issues continuing
into Monday. Coastal Flood Advisories are likely needed Friday
afternoon through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 42 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 60 73 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 141150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Benign weather continues through the short-term. Northerly winds
today will continue to usher in dry and cool air which will keep
temperatures in the 70s area wide. Clear skies and calm northerly
winds tonight will accompany lows in the upper 30s to 40s north of I-
10 (coldest lows in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods). South of I-
10 lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Winds will become more easterly on Friday, allowing moisture to
return to SE Texas, and result in a slight increase in daytime
temperatures. Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer with
majority of the area still in the 70s and a few locations in the
southern tier counties touching the low 80s. Lows for Friday night
into Saturday morning will be in the 40s to low 50s north of I-10
and in the mid 50s to low 60s south of I-10.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
The surface high pressure and upper-level ridge will be moving
to the east over the weekend leading to southeasterly flow at the
surface and southwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to increasing
temperatures and moisture into the region. Saturday is still looking
rather pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s north
of I-10 and east of I-45, and then low 80s for the southwestern
parts of the region. Skies will start out mostly sunny, but there
will be increasing clouds Saturday night. Overnight temperatures
Saturday night will see the biggest bump with lows 10-15 degrees
warmer than Friday night with most of the region in the mid to upper
60s (a little cooler in the Piney Woods, and a little warmer along
the coast). The warming trend continues Sunday with temperatures
rising a few more degrees, and there could be some isolated light
streamer showers as the moisture advection increases from the
onshore flow. There will be a large upper level low swinging through
northern Mexico and up through the Central Plains Sunday into Monday
with a strengthening surface low.
WAA out ahead of the associated cold front will lead to increasing
chance of showers and isolated storms Monday and Monday night for SE
Texas. This cold front will move through the region on Tuesday
ushering in our coldest airmass of the season so far. The timing of
this front has sped up a bit in the guidance, coming through earlier
Tuesday rather than late Tuesday, and I wouldn`t be shocked a trend
even earlier as the strong temperature gradient will lead to a fast
moving front. High temperatures on Tuesday will be highly dependent
on the timing of the front: an earlier front will keep temperatures
in the low to mid 70s, a later front will allow for temperatures
to get into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will drop down to the 40s north of the Houston Metro, and low to mid
50s in the Metro and south of I-10. A reinforcing 850mb cold front
will move through on Wednesday ushering in even colder conditions.
Highs will stay ing the low to mid 60s, and low temperatures
Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 40s for much of the region
with the Piney Woods will likely drop into the upper 30s. There will
be breezy winds, especially along the coast, late Tuesday through
Wednesday that will make temperatures feel like they are in the 30s
at night across inland areas, and low 40s at the coast.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the
north/northeast and variable at times with the exception of GLS
terminal. GLS will have winds of 15-20kts this morning, with gusts
to 25 kts at times. Winds should decrease to less than 15 kts this
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
A weak cold front will moved yesterday evening ushering in
moderate to occasionally strong north-northwesterly winds of around
20kt with gusts to 25kt increasing seas to around 3-5ft. Small Craft
Advisories continue through the mid-morning this morning, and Small
Craft in the Gulf waters may need exercise caution through this
evening. Winds become light by tonight, then becoming easterly on
Friday and then southeasterly over the weekend and into next week.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast
by late Sunday and continue through Tuesday morning. The onshore
winds will increase Monday into Tuesday, possibly requiring Small
Craft Advisories, ahead of an approaching cold front that will move
through the coastal waters Tuesday. Strong northeasterly winds
are possible behind this cold front.
The persistent onshore flow and the full moon will lead to an
increase in tidal levels beginning later this week. P-ETSS guidance
has high tides reaching around 4 ft above MLLW on Friday and
Saturday, and above 4ft late Sunday with tidal issues continuing
into Monday. Coastal Flood Advisories are likely needed Friday
afternoon through the weekend.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 42 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 60 73 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
The October Chamber of Commerce Day...in November - mid 70s with Northerly breeze, low DP.
One more day of suckitude on Sunday and then fingers crossed the summer-ending FROPA on Monday with a reinforcing shot. Don - we're pulling a lot of Gulf moisture up on Sunday. Hopefully, CAPE, shear stay low or it could get wild up there.
One more day of suckitude on Sunday and then fingers crossed the summer-ending FROPA on Monday with a reinforcing shot. Don - we're pulling a lot of Gulf moisture up on Sunday. Hopefully, CAPE, shear stay low or it could get wild up there.