Remnants of Paula

Fri Oct 08, 2010 5:27 pm

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invest_al982010.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010100818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010100818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2231 UTC FRI OCT 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101008 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101008  1800   101009  0600   101009  1800   101010  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  78.6W   13.1N  78.8W   13.3N  79.6W   13.2N  80.6W
BAMD    13.2N  78.6W   13.7N  78.9W   14.3N  79.4W   14.8N  80.0W
BAMM    13.2N  78.6W   13.4N  78.8W   13.7N  79.5W   14.0N  80.4W
LBAR    13.2N  78.6W   13.2N  78.8W   14.0N  79.7W   15.3N  80.6W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          23KTS          27KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          23KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101010  1800   101011  1800   101012  1800   101013  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  82.0W   12.7N  84.9W   12.2N  88.8W   11.3N  93.9W
BAMD    15.5N  80.6W   16.6N  82.3W   18.2N  85.2W   20.6N  87.2W
BAMM    14.3N  81.6W   15.0N  84.5W   15.5N  88.1W   15.5N  92.0W
LBAR    17.3N  81.2W   22.7N  80.5W   27.8N  73.9W   31.0N  59.0W
SHIP        33KTS          44KTS          48KTS          41KTS
DSHP        33KTS          32KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  78.6W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  79.3W DIRM12 = 154DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  16.7N LONM24 =  80.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:23 pm

A bit more interesting. If this feature can remain stationary for a few days, the upper air pattern looks to change. Not that it will be a worry here, but Florida is a different matter IMO...

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WHXX01 KWBC 090000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0000 UTC SAT OCT 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101009  0000   101009  1200   101010  0000   101010  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  78.4W   13.3N  78.9W   13.3N  80.0W   13.0N  81.2W
BAMD    13.4N  78.4W   14.0N  78.9W   14.6N  79.5W   15.3N  80.2W
BAMM    13.4N  78.4W   13.6N  78.6W   14.1N  79.2W   14.6N  80.1W
LBAR    13.4N  78.4W   13.7N  78.8W   14.7N  79.5W   16.1N  80.2W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101011  0000   101012  0000   101013  0000   101014  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  82.5W   12.1N  85.4W   11.4N  89.4W   10.1N  94.7W
BAMD    16.1N  80.8W   17.6N  82.8W   19.9N  84.9W   22.3N  84.6W
BAMM    15.3N  81.1W   16.5N  83.5W   17.8N  86.5W   18.0N  89.4W
LBAR    18.5N  80.6W   24.1N  78.6W   29.0N  69.8W   32.8N  52.3W
SHIP        43KTS          52KTS          53KTS          49KTS
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          53KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  78.4W DIRCUR = 140DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  78.9W DIRM12 = 150DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  79.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Fri Oct 08, 2010 11:26 pm

If 98L is stationary, it could easily strengthen if conditions are right. Mitch and Wilma were like that.

Sat Oct 09, 2010 9:30 am

98L continues to slowly organize in the SW Caribbean. There appears to be a very broad area of low pressure near 12.5N/79.5W and not moving...

Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:49 pm

Sure appears we may have a storm soon in the SW Caribbean...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 150 MILES EAST OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sat Oct 09, 2010 2:18 pm

any chance this could be a threat to us?

Sat Oct 09, 2010 2:21 pm

Not here in the NW Gulf. Looks to make a run at the Yucatan/Cuba before heading NE to ENE in a hurry. The Keys and perhaps S FL could feel some effects though. Reminds me of Michelle (2001).

Sat Oct 09, 2010 6:39 pm

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:40 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111528
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:02 pm

RECON is finding winds to support TS Paula...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:18 pm

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invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al182010.ren
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Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:49 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 18:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 18:11:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°42'N 83°45'W (15.7N 83.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (473 km) to the SSW (212°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 46kts (From the NNE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 462m (1,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 465m (1,526ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FAIR SPIRAL BAND NW AROUND TO NE
OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KTS NE QUAD 18:15:10Z

Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:51 pm

Looking at the models, 98L, soon to be Paula, takes a path typical of a Caribbean storm that forms in October. As for strength, it depends on how fast it moves. The slower it moves, the more likely it can undergo rapid intensification.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:50 pm

Perhaps Hurricane Paula...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:24:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°50'N 83°51'W (15.8333N 83.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 290 miles (466 km) to the SW (214°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 335° at 50kts (From the NNW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (306°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND BETTER ORGANIZED NW AROUND TO NE
INFREQ LTG IN NW QUAD WITH BAND

Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:58 pm

Recon could've run into a microburst at the time. Regardless, Paula has formed. No NHC advisory at this time.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:38 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:45 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 112337
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
800 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN HONDURAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:33 pm

From the latest satellite image of Paula, looks like it could undergo rapid intensification.

Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:13 am

Getting better organized. I think Paula will be a hurricane come morning.

Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:18 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

Remnants of Paula

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