Just got our 5 min of streamer shower. Yea!
A line of showers should develop tonight along the FROPA. It's blasted past Don's and is in the DFW area.
November 2024
Thanks for the reminder of how badly it sucked yesterday. 
I didn't bother to mow the lawn.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1157 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Let me just say that I am GLAD that a cold front is on the way
because what College Station did yesterday is simply astounding.
College Station reached 92F on Sunday, which not only broke a
record (88F in 1948)...but this also marks the first time that
College Station has reached the 90s in the month of November since
1948. Cloud coverage will be a bit higher today, so the chances of a
repeat aren`t that great (knock on wood). Locations west of I-45
will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s east of I-45. Streamer showers
will continue through the early morning hours with coverage
gradually expanding in the afternoon hours. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible as well, but our main window for
thunderstorms will be tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes through Southeast Texas. Before we get to that though, I do
want to briefly mention the windy conditions today. With a 35-45 kt
LLJ overhead, some of these winds will mix down to the surface
resulting in sustained southerly/southeasterly winds around 20-25
mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph at times. We`ll be borderline on Wind
Advisory conditions this afternoon (especially near the coast).
Now back to the front...a deep upper level trough with an embedded
upper level low will continue to move eastward from the Four Corners
region towards the Central/Southern Plains later today and will
provide the push for the front to at least push through most of
Southeast Texas. The timing for the front will be generally 11pm-1am
in the Brazos Valley, 2-4am in the Houston metro area, and 6-8am
near or at the coast. Timing could still change between now and
tonight, so take those numbers VERY generally. Ingredients ahead of
and along the frontal boundary are supportive for some storms to
become strong to severe. Strong winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary threats, but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. SPC has maintained a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather for areas north of a Brenham-Conroe-Livingston line and a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) elsewhere. With these storms moving
through overnight, please be sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings!
Heavy rain was mentioned due to moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary surging PW values to 1.9-2.1" (90th percentile:
~1.66") in addition to frontogenetic forcing, upper level
divergence, and LLJ enhancement. The upper level trough weakens
fairly significantly early Tuesday, so the front loses out on its
main pusher. The line of storms should have a decent enough of a
cold pool to keep chugging along, but the frontal boundary does look
like it`ll stall out in a southwest to northeast orientation right
along the coast late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Rain rates
will be the main factor for any potential flooding issues and are
more likely to be higher over the Piney Woods due to better synoptic
support. Higher rainfall rates in the stronger storms could lead to
localized street flooding especially in low-lying areas/areas with
poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined most locations north of
Harris County in a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected with isolated higher
rainfall totals possible across the Piney Woods. HREF LPMM and PMM
depict the potential for totals of 3-4" possible in these areas.
With the front pushing through most of Southeast Texas before
sunrise on Tuesday, we`ll see some cooler temperatures work their
way in. Low temperatures for Monday night/Tuesday morning will be in
the low to mid 60s northwest of the Houston metro area and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere. Earlier I mentioned that the front stalls out
near the coast on Tuesday, so expect some lingering cloud cover and
moisture to stick around throughout the day especially for locations
south of I-10 and east of I-45.
Drier air (PW values less than 1.0") will work its way into the
northwestern half of the CWA, but the lingering front will create
quite the moisture gradient with PW values near 1.7" around
Galveston Bay. As a result, we`ll only see high temperatures in the
70s on Tuesday. The last time we`ve had a high temperature in the
70s (for City of Houston) was on October 17th, so it`s been that
long since we`ve had seasonal temperatures. Chilly temperatures
finally return on Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 50s in
the Brazos Valley, (one night - but it's a start) upper 50s/low 60s around the Houston metro area,
and low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Last thing I promise! With
the front lingering around our southeastern counties, rain chances
will persist in those areas through Tuesday night.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Periods of mainly low shower/storm chances will be in this forecast
period. A southwest flow aloft will allow for occasional weaknesses/
disturbances to move across the area, and these impulses in combination
with elevated moisture levels and weak surface boundaries/fronts in
and around the area will result in the rains. This forecast package
has our highest rain chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon across parts of our northern and western counties, roughly
to the north and west of the 59/69 corridor. High temperatures will
be generally in a mid 70s to mid 80s range almost every day. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s on Thursday and Friday and in
the 50s/60s on Saturday and Sunday (50s mainly confined to the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods areas). We will be monitoring the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as it makes its way into the Gulf
of Mexico, but at this time the only influence this system should have
on our area will be increasing east winds and building seas across
our coastal waters toward the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
I didn't bother to mow the lawn.Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1157 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Let me just say that I am GLAD that a cold front is on the way
because what College Station did yesterday is simply astounding.
College Station reached 92F on Sunday, which not only broke a
record (88F in 1948)...but this also marks the first time that
College Station has reached the 90s in the month of November since
1948. Cloud coverage will be a bit higher today, so the chances of a
repeat aren`t that great (knock on wood). Locations west of I-45
will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s east of I-45. Streamer showers
will continue through the early morning hours with coverage
gradually expanding in the afternoon hours. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible as well, but our main window for
thunderstorms will be tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes through Southeast Texas. Before we get to that though, I do
want to briefly mention the windy conditions today. With a 35-45 kt
LLJ overhead, some of these winds will mix down to the surface
resulting in sustained southerly/southeasterly winds around 20-25
mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph at times. We`ll be borderline on Wind
Advisory conditions this afternoon (especially near the coast).
Now back to the front...a deep upper level trough with an embedded
upper level low will continue to move eastward from the Four Corners
region towards the Central/Southern Plains later today and will
provide the push for the front to at least push through most of
Southeast Texas. The timing for the front will be generally 11pm-1am
in the Brazos Valley, 2-4am in the Houston metro area, and 6-8am
near or at the coast. Timing could still change between now and
tonight, so take those numbers VERY generally. Ingredients ahead of
and along the frontal boundary are supportive for some storms to
become strong to severe. Strong winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary threats, but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. SPC has maintained a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather for areas north of a Brenham-Conroe-Livingston line and a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) elsewhere. With these storms moving
through overnight, please be sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings!
Heavy rain was mentioned due to moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary surging PW values to 1.9-2.1" (90th percentile:
~1.66") in addition to frontogenetic forcing, upper level
divergence, and LLJ enhancement. The upper level trough weakens
fairly significantly early Tuesday, so the front loses out on its
main pusher. The line of storms should have a decent enough of a
cold pool to keep chugging along, but the frontal boundary does look
like it`ll stall out in a southwest to northeast orientation right
along the coast late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Rain rates
will be the main factor for any potential flooding issues and are
more likely to be higher over the Piney Woods due to better synoptic
support. Higher rainfall rates in the stronger storms could lead to
localized street flooding especially in low-lying areas/areas with
poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined most locations north of
Harris County in a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected with isolated higher
rainfall totals possible across the Piney Woods. HREF LPMM and PMM
depict the potential for totals of 3-4" possible in these areas.
With the front pushing through most of Southeast Texas before
sunrise on Tuesday, we`ll see some cooler temperatures work their
way in. Low temperatures for Monday night/Tuesday morning will be in
the low to mid 60s northwest of the Houston metro area and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere. Earlier I mentioned that the front stalls out
near the coast on Tuesday, so expect some lingering cloud cover and
moisture to stick around throughout the day especially for locations
south of I-10 and east of I-45.
Drier air (PW values less than 1.0") will work its way into the
northwestern half of the CWA, but the lingering front will create
quite the moisture gradient with PW values near 1.7" around
Galveston Bay. As a result, we`ll only see high temperatures in the
70s on Tuesday. The last time we`ve had a high temperature in the
70s (for City of Houston) was on October 17th, so it`s been that
long since we`ve had seasonal temperatures. Chilly temperatures
finally return on Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 50s in
the Brazos Valley, (one night - but it's a start) upper 50s/low 60s around the Houston metro area,
and low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Last thing I promise! With
the front lingering around our southeastern counties, rain chances
will persist in those areas through Tuesday night.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Periods of mainly low shower/storm chances will be in this forecast
period. A southwest flow aloft will allow for occasional weaknesses/
disturbances to move across the area, and these impulses in combination
with elevated moisture levels and weak surface boundaries/fronts in
and around the area will result in the rains. This forecast package
has our highest rain chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon across parts of our northern and western counties, roughly
to the north and west of the 59/69 corridor. High temperatures will
be generally in a mid 70s to mid 80s range almost every day. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s on Thursday and Friday and in
the 50s/60s on Saturday and Sunday (50s mainly confined to the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods areas). We will be monitoring the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as it makes its way into the Gulf
of Mexico, but at this time the only influence this system should have
on our area will be increasing east winds and building seas across
our coastal waters toward the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
212
FXUS64 KHGX 042151
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL, CLIMATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A fall cold front is on its way, bringing with it the potential
for a line of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong
to severe as well as a day or so of cooler temperatures. Here are
the key points for the next week or so of weather:
- There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, some
producing locally heavy rainfall along and just ahead of the
front as it comes through overnight. The greatest threat is to
the north - areas north of a line from Columbus through Conroe
to Livingston have a threat level 2 of 5 for severe storms,
with a level 1 of 5 threat coastward of that line. For heavy
rain, a threat level 2 of 4 is even farther north - from
Huntsville northward.
- The front stalls offshore, and provides several days with a
smattering of showers and isolated storms through the next
several days. Rain chances at any one point will be relatively
low, but never dry, with no expectations of severe storms or
heavy rain.
- Finally, it will be important to keep an eye on the progress of
now-Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. While impacts
are most likely to stay indirect and on Gulf waters, a closer
approach to Southeast Texas can`t be ruled out at this time.
Keep up with the latest information from the National Hurricane
Center and from this office for local impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Radar imagery showing scattered showers moving from south to north
through SE Texas this afternoon. Expecting this trend to continue
through the rest of the day.
In the meantime, further west of our area a cold front is making its
way through Central Texas. This frontal boundary will continue
pushing east towards SE Texas over the course of the day into the
overnight hours. Out ahead of the front, SE Texas lies in a warm
sector with strong southerly winds continuing to pull in moisture
from the Gulf. PW values through Tuesday morning are projected to
increase to 1.8-2.0" for much of the area.
Along with the deep layer of moisture in place, favorable dynamics
for strong to severe thunderstorms are in place over much of the
area ahead of this cold front. SPC mesoanalysis shows bulk shear
values increasing to around 40-45 kts later in the evening along
with SRH values of 150 m^2/s^2 and CAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg.
Bulk shear vectors are running more parallel to the main forcing
mechanism (in this case the cold front), indicating that the mode of
thunderstorm development will be more linear (squall line). This
feature is beginning to develop further to our west, and will
continue east as mentioned earlier. One thing to note; however, is
the potential for a few discrete strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop out ahead of the front. While bulk shear vectors are more
southwesterly, satellite imagery shows a layer of clouds moving in
from the coast and running more perpendicular to these shear
vectors. This is associated more with discrete cells. The heating
that we have received today in between cloud cover along with
pockets of PVA may interact with CAPE/SRH/Bulk Shear and result in
the development of discrete cells out ahead of the front. These
would be the cells that we would need to keep an eye on with all the
parameters in place for strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible with these
storms.
SPC has maintained a SLIGHT risk over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
with a MARGINAL risk across the rest of SE Texas. The tornado risk
across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods has increased from 2% to 5%
(makes sense given the 150-200 SRH values). While the tornado threat
is nonzero, the primary threat will be the damaging winds. DCAPE
values are in excess of 1000 J/kg which is usually what we look at
to determine the potential for severe winds.
In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a SLIGHT risk for
excessive rainfall across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and the NW
portion of Harris County. A Marginal risk is in place for the rest
of SE Texas.
Timing of these storms remains pretty similar to yesterday, with the
severe threat running from around 11p through the early morning
hours Tuesday (could still see a few strong storms around sunrise).
The bulk of the activity should move offshore during the afternoon
hours with lingering showers behind the front.
Temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to near 70 along the
coast. Tuesday`s highs will be a bit cooler with temperatures in the
70s inland to near 80 along the coast. Northerly winds will draw in
cooler air for Tuesday night and bring lows into the 50s inland and
into the low 60s along the coast.
With the severe threat occurring during the overnight hours, make
sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
With the incoming cold front now having moved fully into the short
term portion of the forecast, the key features of the long term
is the vaguely unsettled midweek as the front stalls offshore,
then gradually gets pushed back northward as a weak warm front. At
the end of the week, we will have another cold front incoming, and
we may (or may not) have the implications of whatever becomes of
Tropical Storm Rafael. Though, to be honest, even if we do end up
having to more directly address Rafael, I`m not sure the
implications are all that intense - more on that a little later.
Ultimately, because of the general lack of certainty/clarity of
all the nuances at play here, plus the relative lack of difference
introduced by those nuances, I was mostly content to roll with the
consensus picture provided by the NBM.
The major difference in my forecast from a straight NBM forecast
is - as always - in dewpoints. For whatever reason, NBM dewpoints
are always way too high in the daytime in this area, and this
forecast is no different. Those got a good nudge downward,
particularly on Saturday if the wake of the next cold front.
Changes were not as noticeable before that front arrives with
decent onshore flow, and with onshore flow returning as early as
Sunday (but likely a little later), those changes narrowed again
next week at the very end of the forecast.
Speaking of quickly shifting to offshore flow, and then right
back, I did make some small tweaks to temperatures simply to
highlight the frontal passage a little better. But the cooldown
with this front - while at least more notable than other recent
fronts - looks fairly short-lived. Look for 70s and 80s to
dominate the back half of the work week. Saturday will ultimately
depend on the timing of the front, but for now it seems to come
early enough that it will chop down temperatures pretty
effectively. Those in our far north should only reach to around 70
degrees - probably a bit higher, but a few cool spots may very
well struggle to get out of the 60s at all. We should be warmer
closer to the coast, but as long as the front makes it early
enough to prevent a pre-frontal heat spike near peak heating, I
don`t know if anything but the hottest of the localized hot spots
will manage to reach 80. After that, of course, with the onshore
flow likely returning quickly, expect a return back to an
unseasonably warm setup with temperatures both at night and in the
day reaching to around 10 degrees above average.
As far as rainfall goes, PoPs never really get all that high in
through the weekend, but never really fully go away, either. With
the short term`s front stalling out over the coastal waters, then
gradually dragging back north, we`ll keep a focus for shower
initiation pretty much over the area throughout most of the long
term. And if we do end up having a tropical storm (or, more
likely, its disheveled remnants if something comes this way) to
deal with, then that will provide some rain chances, too. It will
take until the weekend`s front moves through the area to finally
get some rain-free weather in the picture. Given how dry almost
the entirety of October was though, I am personally fully cool
with having just some generic rain chances smeared across several
days. No concerns here for excessive rainfall, just chipping away
at any developing drought conditions bit by bit with sporadic
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder here and there.
Finally, by the very end of the forecast period, we may have
Rafael, its remnants, or maybe nothing moving into the general
region. As for discussing this, I lean strongly towards the
sentiment of "I don`t wanna and you can`t make me!" Truthfully,
uncertainty is very high here, and most (but not all!) plausible
scenarios that do bring the storm`s center would mean a very beat
up and disorganized Rafael that doesn`t necessarily make for
strong impacts. For now, I`d put pretty high likelihood on higher
seas on the Gulf late this week, and potentially some higher winds
and rain chances. Beyond that? This is something we definitely
want to keep an eye on, and also not get too carried away with
speculating about just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR/MVFR CIGs ongoing this morning through the afternoon hours,
likely continuing overnight into Tuesday morning with the approach
of a cold front from the west and ample moisture over SE TX. SCT
SHRA continuing through the afternoon and evening. During the
evening hours expect TS to get mixed in ahead of a line of storms.
The line of storms associated with a cold front is set to arrive
near the CLL terminal around 03Z-05Z, moving through the metro
from around 07Z-15Z, and the bulk of the activity moving off the
coast around 20Z Tuesday. Some of these thunderstorms ahead of and
along the frontal boundary could become strong to severe with
damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes all possible. In
addition to the severe threat, a Wind Advisory is in effect
through 00Z this evening. Sustained winds of 20-25kts are expected
with gusts up to 35-40kts at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Strong onshore winds and elevated seas are expected through
tonight and into tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for
all waters and will gradually end from the coast towards farther
offshore throughout the day on Tuesday. Very elevated water levels
are expected at high tide this evening, causing minor flooding
near the coast as well as strong rip currents for the Gulf facing
beaches.
A cold front will pass through Tuesday and may stall over
the coastal waters, resulting in diminishing winds becoming east
to northeasterly. Seas will also gradually subside as well. The
front stalling, however, will result in sporadic periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the middle part of the week.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael in
the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico late this week
into the weekend. Local waters are likely to see increasing east
winds and building seas with the current forecast.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
NHC has found the evidence of strengthening to upgrade TD 18 to
Tropical Storm Rafael. High confidence continues in the first part
of the forecast, with expected strengthening to a hurricane by the
time it reaches Western Cuba. Beyond that and for Rafael`s path
into the Gulf of Mexico, uncertainty increases significantly.
While the storm appears likely to at least increase seas on our
coastal Gulf waters late this week, it`s hard to say much more on
local impacts with confidence. Continue to monitor the latest from
NHC and our office for the evolving expectations on this storm.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
As of this afternoon, all five first order climate sites are on
track to set new record high minimum temperatures today. The
biggest threat to these records will be the line of showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the incoming cold front,
particularly at College Station. The potential record there may
well be lost in the final minutes of the day. Records are likely
more secure at the other four sites, but not guaranteed until the
midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 73 53 78 / 90 60 0 10
Houston (IAH) 68 76 63 80 / 80 80 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 80 68 79 / 30 70 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 042151
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL, CLIMATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A fall cold front is on its way, bringing with it the potential
for a line of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong
to severe as well as a day or so of cooler temperatures. Here are
the key points for the next week or so of weather:
- There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, some
producing locally heavy rainfall along and just ahead of the
front as it comes through overnight. The greatest threat is to
the north - areas north of a line from Columbus through Conroe
to Livingston have a threat level 2 of 5 for severe storms,
with a level 1 of 5 threat coastward of that line. For heavy
rain, a threat level 2 of 4 is even farther north - from
Huntsville northward.
- The front stalls offshore, and provides several days with a
smattering of showers and isolated storms through the next
several days. Rain chances at any one point will be relatively
low, but never dry, with no expectations of severe storms or
heavy rain.
- Finally, it will be important to keep an eye on the progress of
now-Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. While impacts
are most likely to stay indirect and on Gulf waters, a closer
approach to Southeast Texas can`t be ruled out at this time.
Keep up with the latest information from the National Hurricane
Center and from this office for local impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Radar imagery showing scattered showers moving from south to north
through SE Texas this afternoon. Expecting this trend to continue
through the rest of the day.
In the meantime, further west of our area a cold front is making its
way through Central Texas. This frontal boundary will continue
pushing east towards SE Texas over the course of the day into the
overnight hours. Out ahead of the front, SE Texas lies in a warm
sector with strong southerly winds continuing to pull in moisture
from the Gulf. PW values through Tuesday morning are projected to
increase to 1.8-2.0" for much of the area.
Along with the deep layer of moisture in place, favorable dynamics
for strong to severe thunderstorms are in place over much of the
area ahead of this cold front. SPC mesoanalysis shows bulk shear
values increasing to around 40-45 kts later in the evening along
with SRH values of 150 m^2/s^2 and CAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg.
Bulk shear vectors are running more parallel to the main forcing
mechanism (in this case the cold front), indicating that the mode of
thunderstorm development will be more linear (squall line). This
feature is beginning to develop further to our west, and will
continue east as mentioned earlier. One thing to note; however, is
the potential for a few discrete strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop out ahead of the front. While bulk shear vectors are more
southwesterly, satellite imagery shows a layer of clouds moving in
from the coast and running more perpendicular to these shear
vectors. This is associated more with discrete cells. The heating
that we have received today in between cloud cover along with
pockets of PVA may interact with CAPE/SRH/Bulk Shear and result in
the development of discrete cells out ahead of the front. These
would be the cells that we would need to keep an eye on with all the
parameters in place for strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible with these
storms.
SPC has maintained a SLIGHT risk over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
with a MARGINAL risk across the rest of SE Texas. The tornado risk
across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods has increased from 2% to 5%
(makes sense given the 150-200 SRH values). While the tornado threat
is nonzero, the primary threat will be the damaging winds. DCAPE
values are in excess of 1000 J/kg which is usually what we look at
to determine the potential for severe winds.
In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a SLIGHT risk for
excessive rainfall across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and the NW
portion of Harris County. A Marginal risk is in place for the rest
of SE Texas.
Timing of these storms remains pretty similar to yesterday, with the
severe threat running from around 11p through the early morning
hours Tuesday (could still see a few strong storms around sunrise).
The bulk of the activity should move offshore during the afternoon
hours with lingering showers behind the front.
Temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to near 70 along the
coast. Tuesday`s highs will be a bit cooler with temperatures in the
70s inland to near 80 along the coast. Northerly winds will draw in
cooler air for Tuesday night and bring lows into the 50s inland and
into the low 60s along the coast.
With the severe threat occurring during the overnight hours, make
sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
With the incoming cold front now having moved fully into the short
term portion of the forecast, the key features of the long term
is the vaguely unsettled midweek as the front stalls offshore,
then gradually gets pushed back northward as a weak warm front. At
the end of the week, we will have another cold front incoming, and
we may (or may not) have the implications of whatever becomes of
Tropical Storm Rafael. Though, to be honest, even if we do end up
having to more directly address Rafael, I`m not sure the
implications are all that intense - more on that a little later.
Ultimately, because of the general lack of certainty/clarity of
all the nuances at play here, plus the relative lack of difference
introduced by those nuances, I was mostly content to roll with the
consensus picture provided by the NBM.
The major difference in my forecast from a straight NBM forecast
is - as always - in dewpoints. For whatever reason, NBM dewpoints
are always way too high in the daytime in this area, and this
forecast is no different. Those got a good nudge downward,
particularly on Saturday if the wake of the next cold front.
Changes were not as noticeable before that front arrives with
decent onshore flow, and with onshore flow returning as early as
Sunday (but likely a little later), those changes narrowed again
next week at the very end of the forecast.
Speaking of quickly shifting to offshore flow, and then right
back, I did make some small tweaks to temperatures simply to
highlight the frontal passage a little better. But the cooldown
with this front - while at least more notable than other recent
fronts - looks fairly short-lived. Look for 70s and 80s to
dominate the back half of the work week. Saturday will ultimately
depend on the timing of the front, but for now it seems to come
early enough that it will chop down temperatures pretty
effectively. Those in our far north should only reach to around 70
degrees - probably a bit higher, but a few cool spots may very
well struggle to get out of the 60s at all. We should be warmer
closer to the coast, but as long as the front makes it early
enough to prevent a pre-frontal heat spike near peak heating, I
don`t know if anything but the hottest of the localized hot spots
will manage to reach 80. After that, of course, with the onshore
flow likely returning quickly, expect a return back to an
unseasonably warm setup with temperatures both at night and in the
day reaching to around 10 degrees above average.
As far as rainfall goes, PoPs never really get all that high in
through the weekend, but never really fully go away, either. With
the short term`s front stalling out over the coastal waters, then
gradually dragging back north, we`ll keep a focus for shower
initiation pretty much over the area throughout most of the long
term. And if we do end up having a tropical storm (or, more
likely, its disheveled remnants if something comes this way) to
deal with, then that will provide some rain chances, too. It will
take until the weekend`s front moves through the area to finally
get some rain-free weather in the picture. Given how dry almost
the entirety of October was though, I am personally fully cool
with having just some generic rain chances smeared across several
days. No concerns here for excessive rainfall, just chipping away
at any developing drought conditions bit by bit with sporadic
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder here and there.
Finally, by the very end of the forecast period, we may have
Rafael, its remnants, or maybe nothing moving into the general
region. As for discussing this, I lean strongly towards the
sentiment of "I don`t wanna and you can`t make me!" Truthfully,
uncertainty is very high here, and most (but not all!) plausible
scenarios that do bring the storm`s center would mean a very beat
up and disorganized Rafael that doesn`t necessarily make for
strong impacts. For now, I`d put pretty high likelihood on higher
seas on the Gulf late this week, and potentially some higher winds
and rain chances. Beyond that? This is something we definitely
want to keep an eye on, and also not get too carried away with
speculating about just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR/MVFR CIGs ongoing this morning through the afternoon hours,
likely continuing overnight into Tuesday morning with the approach
of a cold front from the west and ample moisture over SE TX. SCT
SHRA continuing through the afternoon and evening. During the
evening hours expect TS to get mixed in ahead of a line of storms.
The line of storms associated with a cold front is set to arrive
near the CLL terminal around 03Z-05Z, moving through the metro
from around 07Z-15Z, and the bulk of the activity moving off the
coast around 20Z Tuesday. Some of these thunderstorms ahead of and
along the frontal boundary could become strong to severe with
damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes all possible. In
addition to the severe threat, a Wind Advisory is in effect
through 00Z this evening. Sustained winds of 20-25kts are expected
with gusts up to 35-40kts at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Strong onshore winds and elevated seas are expected through
tonight and into tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for
all waters and will gradually end from the coast towards farther
offshore throughout the day on Tuesday. Very elevated water levels
are expected at high tide this evening, causing minor flooding
near the coast as well as strong rip currents for the Gulf facing
beaches.
A cold front will pass through Tuesday and may stall over
the coastal waters, resulting in diminishing winds becoming east
to northeasterly. Seas will also gradually subside as well. The
front stalling, however, will result in sporadic periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the middle part of the week.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael in
the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico late this week
into the weekend. Local waters are likely to see increasing east
winds and building seas with the current forecast.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
NHC has found the evidence of strengthening to upgrade TD 18 to
Tropical Storm Rafael. High confidence continues in the first part
of the forecast, with expected strengthening to a hurricane by the
time it reaches Western Cuba. Beyond that and for Rafael`s path
into the Gulf of Mexico, uncertainty increases significantly.
While the storm appears likely to at least increase seas on our
coastal Gulf waters late this week, it`s hard to say much more on
local impacts with confidence. Continue to monitor the latest from
NHC and our office for the evolving expectations on this storm.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
As of this afternoon, all five first order climate sites are on
track to set new record high minimum temperatures today. The
biggest threat to these records will be the line of showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the incoming cold front,
particularly at College Station. The potential record there may
well be lost in the final minutes of the day. Records are likely
more secure at the other four sites, but not guaranteed until the
midnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 73 53 78 / 90 60 0 10
Houston (IAH) 68 76 63 80 / 80 80 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 80 68 79 / 30 70 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs
FROPA rolling through Georgetown now with some pretty heavy rain. Lights flickered briefly.
Could be a stormy tonight to early morning.
Thought this was Lousiana and points east. Sure not looking like it with the 10PM.
Strong line along the front rolling in near morning rush hour for you guys.
I hate it tbh. I’d rather storms come in during the evening to take advantage of the daytime heating. Plus, I’m home then so I can watch it rain lol
Boy, I had hell driving to work this morning. That was not a fun drive at all.
It’s looking like Thursday and Friday we should have another shot at some rain.
Looks like a nice soaking for everyone. I guess I’m spoiled - I mostly work from home now. When I need to drive into Houston it’s like planning a road trip.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
960
FXUS64 KHGX 050945
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL, CLIMATE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Weak front and associated band of showers and isolated tstms are
currently making its way into SOutheast Texas. Looks like it`ll be
in the vicinity of the US59/I69 corridor ~6am, just in time to make
for a messy morning commute. Precip will be moving toward a more
stable environment so not anticipating much of a severe wx threat,
though some training locally heavy downpours remain a possibility as
we head into sunrise. By mid morning, coverage should be decreasing
and bulk of activity should be pushing east and south of the area.
The front is quite shallow, and with ssw winds just above the
surface, cloudiness looks to linger across the SE 1/2 of the CWA for
the remainder of the day and tonight. The good news is the frontal
boundary should push just off the coast allowing for all of us to
enjoy somewhat of a cooler airmass...albeit not for too long. The
front should washout Wednesday and we`ll see a return of the onshore
winds and 70F dewpoints and some spotty drizzle/-ra by Wednesday
night. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Lingering frontal boundary remains in place on Thursday along with
elevated moisture and southwesterly flow aloft, which means that
rain chances remain in the forecast going into the end of the work
week. This is occuring ahead of an approaching deep upper level
trough with an embedded upper level low moving in from the Four
Corners region. Surface low pressure develops in the Central Plains
on Friday and drifts generally north-northeastward. As it does so,
it`ll drag another cold front through the region some time on
Saturday. Timing is still a bit uncertain with the GFS still being
on the earlier end of solutions with a late Friday FROPA whereas
most model guidance is clustered around early Saturday. Either way,
we can expect chances for showers/storms ahead of and along the
frontal boundary. The GFS and Euro show vastly different solutions
on what happens beyond the FROPA with the GFS ushering in much drier
air and the Euro keeping elevated moisture in place. For now, we`ve
went towards the middle and kept in low-end PoPs through the
weekend.
Temperatures behind the front look rather chilly though with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s over the weekend. The weekend is
when we have our eyes on the Gulf as well with Rafael looking to
make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico. As of right now, any
local impacts besides an increase in wave heights in our coastal
Gulf waters are too uncertain to pinpoint. Our cold front that
pushes offshore early in the weekend should act as a blocker and
keep Rafael or its remnants away from Southeast Texas, but you
should still keep a close eye on the latest forecasts for any
additional updates. Onshore flow does return rather quickly behind
this front leading to a warming trend back to the 80s going into
early next week. While Monday looks dry, enough moisture returns
going into midweek to interact with embedded shortwaves aloft and
bring rain chances back into the forecast.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Look for improving aviation conditions at CLL heading into sunrise
as the front and bulk of rain should have pushed southeast by then.
Showers and isolated tstms associated with the front should be
making their way into the metro areas (US59/I69 corridor) as we head
into the 12z time period. Main concerns with these would be some
brief heavy downpours reducing vsby, along with lower ceilings.
Precip coverage should taper off going into the mid morning hours
and ceilings should lift into VFR territory toward mid day. Tonight,
look for MVFR ceilings to back fill in across the metro and coastal
terminals. There is some guidance hinting at the possibility of some
end IFR ceilings toward HOU, LBX, GLS late. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon as
strong onshore flow and elevated seas persist ahead of an
approaching cold front. Additionally, the strong onshore flow is
currently causing very elevated water levels during high tide, so a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through this morning. This
will be replaced with a Beach Hazards Statement later this morning
as water levels during high tide will be closer to 3ft above MLLW.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are occuring both
ahead of and along the frontal boundary with rain showers likely
continue into Tuesday night with the cold front lingering near the
coast.
The cold front will push offshore later this morning leading to
light to moderate northerly winds in its wake, but seas are expected
to remain elevated throughout the rest of the day. As previously
mentioned though, the front will linger off of the coast for a
couple of days leading to intermittent periods of showers and storms
through midweek.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael in the
Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico late this week into the
weekend. Local waters are likely to see increasing east winds and
building seas with the latest forecast.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on
Tropical Storm Rafael currently just south of Jamaica. It is
expected to strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall in
western Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael is then expected to emerge into
the southeastern Gulf with a general northwestward movement towards
the central Gulf. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
uncertainty remains fairly high on what happens with Rafael towards
the end of the week. As of right now, we`re still looking at
potential increases in our wave heights in our coastal Gulf waters,
but beyond that it`s tough pinpoint any local impacts. Especially
with a cold front expected to push through Southeast Texas early in
the weekend, which would act as a blocker for us. Please continue to
monitor the latest from the NHC and our office for additional
updates to the forecast.
Batiste
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Six records were broken yesterday (November 4th) with five new record
high minimum temperatures and one new record high maximum temperature.
College Station: 76F (old record 75F in 1994)
Houston Intercontinental: 78F (old record 76F in 1994)
Houston Hobby: 78F (old record 75F in 1994)
Palacios: 78F (old record 76F in 1994)
Galveston [min]: 77F (old record 76F in 1935)
Galveston [max]: 86F (old record 85F in 1988)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 54 78 63 / 60 0 0 30
Houston (IAH) 75 61 79 68 / 100 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 69 78 74 / 80 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 AM CST this morning
through this afternoon for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 050945
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL, CLIMATE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Weak front and associated band of showers and isolated tstms are
currently making its way into SOutheast Texas. Looks like it`ll be
in the vicinity of the US59/I69 corridor ~6am, just in time to make
for a messy morning commute. Precip will be moving toward a more
stable environment so not anticipating much of a severe wx threat,
though some training locally heavy downpours remain a possibility as
we head into sunrise. By mid morning, coverage should be decreasing
and bulk of activity should be pushing east and south of the area.
The front is quite shallow, and with ssw winds just above the
surface, cloudiness looks to linger across the SE 1/2 of the CWA for
the remainder of the day and tonight. The good news is the frontal
boundary should push just off the coast allowing for all of us to
enjoy somewhat of a cooler airmass...albeit not for too long. The
front should washout Wednesday and we`ll see a return of the onshore
winds and 70F dewpoints and some spotty drizzle/-ra by Wednesday
night. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Lingering frontal boundary remains in place on Thursday along with
elevated moisture and southwesterly flow aloft, which means that
rain chances remain in the forecast going into the end of the work
week. This is occuring ahead of an approaching deep upper level
trough with an embedded upper level low moving in from the Four
Corners region. Surface low pressure develops in the Central Plains
on Friday and drifts generally north-northeastward. As it does so,
it`ll drag another cold front through the region some time on
Saturday. Timing is still a bit uncertain with the GFS still being
on the earlier end of solutions with a late Friday FROPA whereas
most model guidance is clustered around early Saturday. Either way,
we can expect chances for showers/storms ahead of and along the
frontal boundary. The GFS and Euro show vastly different solutions
on what happens beyond the FROPA with the GFS ushering in much drier
air and the Euro keeping elevated moisture in place. For now, we`ve
went towards the middle and kept in low-end PoPs through the
weekend.
Temperatures behind the front look rather chilly though with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s over the weekend. The weekend is
when we have our eyes on the Gulf as well with Rafael looking to
make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico. As of right now, any
local impacts besides an increase in wave heights in our coastal
Gulf waters are too uncertain to pinpoint. Our cold front that
pushes offshore early in the weekend should act as a blocker and
keep Rafael or its remnants away from Southeast Texas, but you
should still keep a close eye on the latest forecasts for any
additional updates. Onshore flow does return rather quickly behind
this front leading to a warming trend back to the 80s going into
early next week. While Monday looks dry, enough moisture returns
going into midweek to interact with embedded shortwaves aloft and
bring rain chances back into the forecast.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Look for improving aviation conditions at CLL heading into sunrise
as the front and bulk of rain should have pushed southeast by then.
Showers and isolated tstms associated with the front should be
making their way into the metro areas (US59/I69 corridor) as we head
into the 12z time period. Main concerns with these would be some
brief heavy downpours reducing vsby, along with lower ceilings.
Precip coverage should taper off going into the mid morning hours
and ceilings should lift into VFR territory toward mid day. Tonight,
look for MVFR ceilings to back fill in across the metro and coastal
terminals. There is some guidance hinting at the possibility of some
end IFR ceilings toward HOU, LBX, GLS late. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon as
strong onshore flow and elevated seas persist ahead of an
approaching cold front. Additionally, the strong onshore flow is
currently causing very elevated water levels during high tide, so a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through this morning. This
will be replaced with a Beach Hazards Statement later this morning
as water levels during high tide will be closer to 3ft above MLLW.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are occuring both
ahead of and along the frontal boundary with rain showers likely
continue into Tuesday night with the cold front lingering near the
coast.
The cold front will push offshore later this morning leading to
light to moderate northerly winds in its wake, but seas are expected
to remain elevated throughout the rest of the day. As previously
mentioned though, the front will linger off of the coast for a
couple of days leading to intermittent periods of showers and storms
through midweek.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael in the
Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
make its way into the central Gulf of Mexico late this week into the
weekend. Local waters are likely to see increasing east winds and
building seas with the latest forecast.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on
Tropical Storm Rafael currently just south of Jamaica. It is
expected to strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall in
western Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael is then expected to emerge into
the southeastern Gulf with a general northwestward movement towards
the central Gulf. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
uncertainty remains fairly high on what happens with Rafael towards
the end of the week. As of right now, we`re still looking at
potential increases in our wave heights in our coastal Gulf waters,
but beyond that it`s tough pinpoint any local impacts. Especially
with a cold front expected to push through Southeast Texas early in
the weekend, which would act as a blocker for us. Please continue to
monitor the latest from the NHC and our office for additional
updates to the forecast.
Batiste
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Six records were broken yesterday (November 4th) with five new record
high minimum temperatures and one new record high maximum temperature.
College Station: 76F (old record 75F in 1994)
Houston Intercontinental: 78F (old record 76F in 1994)
Houston Hobby: 78F (old record 75F in 1994)
Palacios: 78F (old record 76F in 1994)
Galveston [min]: 77F (old record 76F in 1935)
Galveston [max]: 86F (old record 85F in 1988)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 54 78 63 / 60 0 0 30
Houston (IAH) 75 61 79 68 / 100 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 69 78 74 / 80 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 AM CST this morning
through this afternoon for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
Hit the jackpot this morning with a nice 2.52" from the storm. Filled up the Koi pond and should keep sprinklers off for a considerable time.
We receive 0.95 inches between an afternoon streamer shower and the overnight line of showers, which was naturally weaker over us. Good enough, though! It's November and I'm battling brown patch anyway. Trees - they are happy.
Some very nice rainfall totals over the area.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im in that red area on that map, probably saw 6-7 inches last night alone here, id definitely love a few days of dry weather here lol