November 2024
All this beautiful rain to my northwest but I can't cash in.
Storm chasers were out yesterday evening in north Texas. Looks like more action for you tomorrow.don wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:15 am It was very stormy here overnight with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. One supercell that went over the city last night produced a tornado with a debris signature once it passed the city.Almost at 4 inches of rain here now, with more rounds of storms to go through tomorrow.
Heavy moisture pumping towards Don SSE20 G30 here in CLL. Feeding those storms.
Man, those cells near Guthrie and Abilene, moving NE, mean business..
Man, those cells near Guthrie and Abilene, moving NE, mean business..
Another 2.5” today! 3” last Thursday! My yard is rejoicing. Glad it didn't come all at once since SETX likes to do that to us after a long drought period. If we can get it like this, we will be out of a drought in no time. Interested to see Thursdays updated drought map.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Noaa keeps the wet pattern going well into the 2nd week of november
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 415
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
Screw the rain, any cool/cold front on the horizon? This swamp *** is ridiculous 
No rain, but... Thar she blows!!
S30 G40
87°F and high DP...but "wind chill?"
It's lookin' like severe feeding clouds
S30 G40
87°F and high DP...but "wind chill?"
It's lookin' like severe feeding clouds
No.brazoriatx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 2:47 pm Screw the rain, any cool/cold front on the horizon? This swamp *** is ridiculous
Late tomorrow into Tuesday look very wet for us.
After the FROPA we will transition from normal September weather to normal October weather...
Except it's November.
Except it's November.
Enjoy Tesday afternoon andWednesday. 
Slight chance of severe weather for CLL. Y'all are good.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
519 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
An approaching cold front will bring us a chance for rain and
thunderstorms - some potentially strong to severe - Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. That front stalls offshore, then
gradually drifts back as a warm front later in the week, keeping
at least some low rain chances in the forecast for the next
several days. Here are the key things to keep in mind:
- A slight risk of severe thunderstorms(threat level 2 of 5)
exists Monday afternoon/evening from Brenham, Conroe, and
Livingston northward. A marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5)
extends farther south, nearly to the coast. The primary threat
would be damaging winds, but brief, isolated tornadoes are
possible and some larger hail can`t be ruled out either.
- Recent dry weather will help tamp down the heavy rain threat,
but some storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates high
enough to still cause localized flooding concerns. Again, the
higher threat is generally to the north. A slight risk of
excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) exists from Madisonville
and Huntsville northward, while a marginal risk (threat level 1
of 4) exists across the rest of Southeast Texas.
- At the coast, strong onshore flow ahead of the front will result
in conditions hazardous to small craft on the waters, and
elevated water levels at times of high tide. A coastal flood
advisory is in place for minor coastal flooding along the entire
Upper Texas Gulf coast through Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A southerly LLJ continues to funnel in moisture from the Gulf this
afternoon, and with an axis of moisture convergence draped across
the eastern half of the CWA, this will continue to produce showers
and thunderstorms through the rest of the day. In addition to
ongoing showers and thunderstorms, a tightening pressure gradient is
contributing to gusty winds today. Winds will relax during the
overnight hours before gusty winds return Monday during the day.
For Monday, an upper level trough will deepen into the Four Corners
and West Texas as it moves east from PAC-NW, at the surface a cold
front will begin to push towards SE Texas from the west. During the
day Monday, scattered showers will return to the area. Stronger
winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface, creating windy
conditions during the afternoon hours Wednesday (will need to keep
an eye on winds near the coast which will border Wind Advisory
conditions).
The severe threat increases later Monday into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. As the day progresses, the
environment over SE Texas will become increasingly more unstable
with CAPE around 2000 J/kg, minimal CIN, bulk shear around 30-35
kts. Ample moisture remains overhead with PW values around 1.5-1.8,
increasing to around 1.7-1.9 by Monday night.
SPC has not changed their outlook too much since this time
yesterday. Brazos Valley/Piney Woods still remain in a SLIGHT risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather, while the rest of SE TX remains
in a MARGINAL risk (level 1 of 5). The main hazards with these
storms will be damaging wind and hail; however, while the threat is
lower than the aforementioned hazards, there is a low risk (2%) for
tornadoes.
In addition to the severe weather threat, WPC has the Piney Woods
area in a SLIGHT risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and the
rest of SE Texas in a MARGINAL risk (level 1 of 4). With a strong
LLJ drawing in an abundant amount of moisture overhead, some showers
and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy downpours
that could result in flash flooding in low-lying and urban areas and
areas with poor drainage.
Temperatures tonight will be mild with lows in the 70s area wide.
Monday`s temperatures will have time to warm into the 80s. The
arrival of the cold front overnight Monday into Tuesday morning will
result in cooler nighttime temperatures with lows in the low to mid
60s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and in the mid to upper
60s closer to the Coastal Plains and Houston Metro.
With the threat of severe weather occurring during the overnight
hours, make sure to have more than one way to receive weather
alerts!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Looks wet for I-10 dwellers
By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be through much of the
area, making it to roughly the US-59 corridor. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely through the morning along the front,
with some lingering showers shortly behind it. However, by this
point, any line of storms is expected to be on the downslide in
intensity as upper support ejects off to the northeast, and the
front/storms move into an environment influenced increasingly by
high pressure.
Look for the front to reach the Gulf around mid-day, with rain
chances dropping off into the afternoon as it pushes offshore.
However, a smattering of lingering showers probably won`t go away
entirely, as the surface front stalls out 50ish miles offshore
late in the afternoon, while the 850 front trails behind over the
coastal plain.
Indeed, we should expect low rain chances to persist through the
week as the front stays over the coastal waters for a couple days,
then gradually drifts back northward across the area as warm front
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing back the warm, humid Gulf
airmass with it. But, hey - at least it looks like Tuesday highs
will get an assist from the clouds and rain to keep highs in the
upper 60s well inland to the upper 70s at the coast, and only a
few degrees warmer on Wednesday. Highs in the 80s (and perhaps
more notably, lows hanging up in the upper 60s) will be a feature
of the back half of the week, but another weak cold front looks to
move through for the weekend.
Slight chance of severe weather for CLL. Y'all are good.Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
519 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
An approaching cold front will bring us a chance for rain and
thunderstorms - some potentially strong to severe - Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. That front stalls offshore, then
gradually drifts back as a warm front later in the week, keeping
at least some low rain chances in the forecast for the next
several days. Here are the key things to keep in mind:
- A slight risk of severe thunderstorms(threat level 2 of 5)
exists Monday afternoon/evening from Brenham, Conroe, and
Livingston northward. A marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5)
extends farther south, nearly to the coast. The primary threat
would be damaging winds, but brief, isolated tornadoes are
possible and some larger hail can`t be ruled out either.
- Recent dry weather will help tamp down the heavy rain threat,
but some storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates high
enough to still cause localized flooding concerns. Again, the
higher threat is generally to the north. A slight risk of
excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) exists from Madisonville
and Huntsville northward, while a marginal risk (threat level 1
of 4) exists across the rest of Southeast Texas.
- At the coast, strong onshore flow ahead of the front will result
in conditions hazardous to small craft on the waters, and
elevated water levels at times of high tide. A coastal flood
advisory is in place for minor coastal flooding along the entire
Upper Texas Gulf coast through Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A southerly LLJ continues to funnel in moisture from the Gulf this
afternoon, and with an axis of moisture convergence draped across
the eastern half of the CWA, this will continue to produce showers
and thunderstorms through the rest of the day. In addition to
ongoing showers and thunderstorms, a tightening pressure gradient is
contributing to gusty winds today. Winds will relax during the
overnight hours before gusty winds return Monday during the day.
For Monday, an upper level trough will deepen into the Four Corners
and West Texas as it moves east from PAC-NW, at the surface a cold
front will begin to push towards SE Texas from the west. During the
day Monday, scattered showers will return to the area. Stronger
winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface, creating windy
conditions during the afternoon hours Wednesday (will need to keep
an eye on winds near the coast which will border Wind Advisory
conditions).
The severe threat increases later Monday into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. As the day progresses, the
environment over SE Texas will become increasingly more unstable
with CAPE around 2000 J/kg, minimal CIN, bulk shear around 30-35
kts. Ample moisture remains overhead with PW values around 1.5-1.8,
increasing to around 1.7-1.9 by Monday night.
SPC has not changed their outlook too much since this time
yesterday. Brazos Valley/Piney Woods still remain in a SLIGHT risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather, while the rest of SE TX remains
in a MARGINAL risk (level 1 of 5). The main hazards with these
storms will be damaging wind and hail; however, while the threat is
lower than the aforementioned hazards, there is a low risk (2%) for
tornadoes.
In addition to the severe weather threat, WPC has the Piney Woods
area in a SLIGHT risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and the
rest of SE Texas in a MARGINAL risk (level 1 of 4). With a strong
LLJ drawing in an abundant amount of moisture overhead, some showers
and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy downpours
that could result in flash flooding in low-lying and urban areas and
areas with poor drainage.
Temperatures tonight will be mild with lows in the 70s area wide.
Monday`s temperatures will have time to warm into the 80s. The
arrival of the cold front overnight Monday into Tuesday morning will
result in cooler nighttime temperatures with lows in the low to mid
60s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and in the mid to upper
60s closer to the Coastal Plains and Houston Metro.
With the threat of severe weather occurring during the overnight
hours, make sure to have more than one way to receive weather
alerts!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Looks wet for I-10 dwellers
By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be through much of the
area, making it to roughly the US-59 corridor. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely through the morning along the front,
with some lingering showers shortly behind it. However, by this
point, any line of storms is expected to be on the downslide in
intensity as upper support ejects off to the northeast, and the
front/storms move into an environment influenced increasingly by
high pressure.
Look for the front to reach the Gulf around mid-day, with rain
chances dropping off into the afternoon as it pushes offshore.
However, a smattering of lingering showers probably won`t go away
entirely, as the surface front stalls out 50ish miles offshore
late in the afternoon, while the 850 front trails behind over the
coastal plain.
Indeed, we should expect low rain chances to persist through the
week as the front stays over the coastal waters for a couple days,
then gradually drifts back northward across the area as warm front
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing back the warm, humid Gulf
airmass with it. But, hey - at least it looks like Tuesday highs
will get an assist from the clouds and rain to keep highs in the
upper 60s well inland to the upper 70s at the coast, and only a
few degrees warmer on Wednesday. Highs in the 80s (and perhaps
more notably, lows hanging up in the upper 60s) will be a feature
of the back half of the week, but another weak cold front looks to
move through for the weekend.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
890
FXUS64 KHGX 041145
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Let me just say that I am GLAD that a cold front is on the way
because what College Station did yesterday is simply astounding.
College Station reached 92F on Sunday, which not only broke a
record (88F in 1948)...but this also marks the first time that
College Station has reached the 90s in the month of November since
1948. Cloud coverage will be a bit higher today, so the chances of a
repeat aren`t that great (knock on wood). Locations west of I-45
will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s east of I-45. Streamer showers
will continue through the early morning hours with coverage
gradually expanding in the afternoon hours. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible as well, but our main window for
thunderstorms will be tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes through Southeast Texas. Before we get to that though, I do
want to briefly mention the windy conditions today. With a 35-45 kt
LLJ overhead, some of these winds will mix down to the surface
resulting in sustained southerly/southeasterly winds around 20-25
mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph at times. We`ll be borderline on Wind
Advisory conditions this afternoon (especially near the coast).
Now back to the front...a deep upper level trough with an embedded
upper level low will continue to move eastward from the Four Corners
region towards the Central/Southern Plains later today and will
provide the push for the front to at least push through most of
Southeast Texas. The timing for the front will be generally 11pm-1am
in the Brazos Valley, 2-4am in the Houston metro area, and 6-8am
near or at the coast. Timing could still change between now and
tonight, so take those numbers VERY generally. Ingredients ahead of
and along the frontal boundary are supportive for some storms to
become strong to severe. Strong winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary threats, but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. SPC has maintained a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather for areas north of a Brenham-Conroe-Livingston line and a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) elsewhere. With these storms moving
through overnight, please be sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings!
Heavy rain was mentioned due to moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary surging PW values to 1.9-2.1" (90th percentile:
~1.66") in addition to frontogenetic forcing, upper level
divergence, and LLJ enhancement. The upper level trough weakens
fairly significantly early Tuesday, so the front loses out on its
main pusher. The line of storms should have a decent enough of a
cold pool to keep chugging along, but the frontal boundary does look
like it`ll stall out in a southwest to northeast orientation right
along the coast late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Rain rates
will be the main factor for any potential flooding issues and are
more likely to be higher over the Piney Woods due to better synoptic
support. Higher rainfall rates in the stronger storms could lead to
localized street flooding especially in low-lying areas/areas with
poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined most locations north of
Harris County in a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected with isolated higher
rainfall totals possible across the Piney Woods. HREF LPMM and PMM
depict the potential for totals of 3-4" possible in these areas.
With the front pushing through most of Southeast Texas before
sunrise on Tuesday, we`ll see some cooler temperatures work their
way in. Low temperatures for Monday night/Tuesday morning will be in
the low to mid 60s northwest of the Houston metro area and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere. Earlier I mentioned that the front stalls out
near the coast on Tuesday, so expect some lingering cloud cover and
moisture to stick around throughout the day especially for locations
south of I-10 and east of I-45.
Drier air (PW values less than 1.0") will work its way into the
northwestern half of the CWA, but the lingering front will create
quite the moisture gradient with PW values near 1.7" around
Galveston Bay. As a result, we`ll only see high temperatures in the
70s on Tuesday. The last time we`ve had a high temperature in the
70s (for City of Houston) was on October 17th, so it`s been that
long since we`ve had seasonal temperatures. Chilly temperatures
finally return on Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 50s in
the Brazos Valley, upper 50s/low 60s around the Houston metro area,
and low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Last thing I promise! With
the front lingering around our southeastern counties, rain chances
will persist in those areas through Tuesday night.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Periods of mainly low shower/storm chances will be in this forecast
period. A southwest flow aloft will allow for occasional weaknesses/
disturbances to move across the area, and these impulses in combination
with elevated moisture levels and weak surface boundaries/fronts in
and around the area will result in the rains. This forecast package
has our highest rain chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon across parts of our northern and western counties, roughly
to the north and west of the 59/69 corridor. High temperatures will
be generally in a mid 70s to mid 80s range almost every day. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s on Thursday and Friday and in
the 50s/60s on Saturday and Sunday (50s mainly confined to the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods areas). We will be monitoring the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as it makes its way into the Gulf
of Mexico, but at this time the only influence this system should have
on our area will be increasing east winds and building seas across
our coastal waters toward the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A mixture of MVFR to VFR ceilings will continue throughout the
morning hours along with streamer showers along and east of the
I-45 corridor. After 15Z, southeasterly/southerly winds will
increased with sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts up to
25-30 knots through the afternoon hours. Coverage of showers will
gradually increase going into the afternoon, and there is some
potential for a few embedded thunderstorms as indicated by the
PROB30 groups in the afternoon hours. The main window for
thunderstorms comes late Monday night into Tuesday morning as a
cold front pushes through Southeast Texas. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, and some of
these storms could become strong to severe with strong winds and
heavy rain as the main hazards. MVFR ceilings build in both ahead
of the front and behind it and will linger into late Tuesday
morning. Behind the front, light northerly winds and scattered
rain showers will prevail.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Strong onshore winds (currently south to southeast at 20 to 25 knots
with gusts close to 30 knots at area buoys) and elevated seas (currently
8 to 10 feet at area buoys) are expected through Monday night. A Small
Craft Advisory is in place for all waters and will gradually end from
the coast towards farther offshore throughout the day on Tuesday.
Elevated water levels are expected for the next couple of high tide
cycles, causing minor flooding near the coast as well as strong rip
currents for the Gulf facing beaches. A cold front will pass through
Tuesday and may stall over the coastal waters, resulting in much weaker
east to northeast winds prevailing into the middle of the week. This
front will also account for periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen
that is forecasted by the National Hurricane Center to make its way
into the north central Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week and into
the start of the weekend. Our waters could see increasing east winds
and building seas from this system.
42
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is forecasted by the National Hurricane
Center to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael today as it moves northward
then northwestward to near Jamaica by late today and near or over the
Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. The system could then become
a hurricane as it continues northwestward towards western Cuba. Weakening
is forecasted to occur as the system makes progress toward the north
central Gulf of Mexico (south of Louisiana) over the weekend. At this
time, the only influence this system should have on our area will be
increasing east winds and building seas across our coastal waters toward
the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 62 71 53 / 60 90 50 10
Houston (IAH) 85 67 73 61 / 50 80 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 71 77 69 / 30 50 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 041145
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Let me just say that I am GLAD that a cold front is on the way
because what College Station did yesterday is simply astounding.
College Station reached 92F on Sunday, which not only broke a
record (88F in 1948)...but this also marks the first time that
College Station has reached the 90s in the month of November since
1948. Cloud coverage will be a bit higher today, so the chances of a
repeat aren`t that great (knock on wood). Locations west of I-45
will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s east of I-45. Streamer showers
will continue through the early morning hours with coverage
gradually expanding in the afternoon hours. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible as well, but our main window for
thunderstorms will be tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes through Southeast Texas. Before we get to that though, I do
want to briefly mention the windy conditions today. With a 35-45 kt
LLJ overhead, some of these winds will mix down to the surface
resulting in sustained southerly/southeasterly winds around 20-25
mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph at times. We`ll be borderline on Wind
Advisory conditions this afternoon (especially near the coast).
Now back to the front...a deep upper level trough with an embedded
upper level low will continue to move eastward from the Four Corners
region towards the Central/Southern Plains later today and will
provide the push for the front to at least push through most of
Southeast Texas. The timing for the front will be generally 11pm-1am
in the Brazos Valley, 2-4am in the Houston metro area, and 6-8am
near or at the coast. Timing could still change between now and
tonight, so take those numbers VERY generally. Ingredients ahead of
and along the frontal boundary are supportive for some storms to
become strong to severe. Strong winds and heavy rain look to be the
primary threats, but hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. SPC has maintained a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather for areas north of a Brenham-Conroe-Livingston line and a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) elsewhere. With these storms moving
through overnight, please be sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings!
Heavy rain was mentioned due to moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary surging PW values to 1.9-2.1" (90th percentile:
~1.66") in addition to frontogenetic forcing, upper level
divergence, and LLJ enhancement. The upper level trough weakens
fairly significantly early Tuesday, so the front loses out on its
main pusher. The line of storms should have a decent enough of a
cold pool to keep chugging along, but the frontal boundary does look
like it`ll stall out in a southwest to northeast orientation right
along the coast late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Rain rates
will be the main factor for any potential flooding issues and are
more likely to be higher over the Piney Woods due to better synoptic
support. Higher rainfall rates in the stronger storms could lead to
localized street flooding especially in low-lying areas/areas with
poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined most locations north of
Harris County in a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected with isolated higher
rainfall totals possible across the Piney Woods. HREF LPMM and PMM
depict the potential for totals of 3-4" possible in these areas.
With the front pushing through most of Southeast Texas before
sunrise on Tuesday, we`ll see some cooler temperatures work their
way in. Low temperatures for Monday night/Tuesday morning will be in
the low to mid 60s northwest of the Houston metro area and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere. Earlier I mentioned that the front stalls out
near the coast on Tuesday, so expect some lingering cloud cover and
moisture to stick around throughout the day especially for locations
south of I-10 and east of I-45.
Drier air (PW values less than 1.0") will work its way into the
northwestern half of the CWA, but the lingering front will create
quite the moisture gradient with PW values near 1.7" around
Galveston Bay. As a result, we`ll only see high temperatures in the
70s on Tuesday. The last time we`ve had a high temperature in the
70s (for City of Houston) was on October 17th, so it`s been that
long since we`ve had seasonal temperatures. Chilly temperatures
finally return on Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 50s in
the Brazos Valley, upper 50s/low 60s around the Houston metro area,
and low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Last thing I promise! With
the front lingering around our southeastern counties, rain chances
will persist in those areas through Tuesday night.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Periods of mainly low shower/storm chances will be in this forecast
period. A southwest flow aloft will allow for occasional weaknesses/
disturbances to move across the area, and these impulses in combination
with elevated moisture levels and weak surface boundaries/fronts in
and around the area will result in the rains. This forecast package
has our highest rain chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon across parts of our northern and western counties, roughly
to the north and west of the 59/69 corridor. High temperatures will
be generally in a mid 70s to mid 80s range almost every day. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s on Thursday and Friday and in
the 50s/60s on Saturday and Sunday (50s mainly confined to the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods areas). We will be monitoring the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as it makes its way into the Gulf
of Mexico, but at this time the only influence this system should have
on our area will be increasing east winds and building seas across
our coastal waters toward the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A mixture of MVFR to VFR ceilings will continue throughout the
morning hours along with streamer showers along and east of the
I-45 corridor. After 15Z, southeasterly/southerly winds will
increased with sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts up to
25-30 knots through the afternoon hours. Coverage of showers will
gradually increase going into the afternoon, and there is some
potential for a few embedded thunderstorms as indicated by the
PROB30 groups in the afternoon hours. The main window for
thunderstorms comes late Monday night into Tuesday morning as a
cold front pushes through Southeast Texas. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, and some of
these storms could become strong to severe with strong winds and
heavy rain as the main hazards. MVFR ceilings build in both ahead
of the front and behind it and will linger into late Tuesday
morning. Behind the front, light northerly winds and scattered
rain showers will prevail.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Strong onshore winds (currently south to southeast at 20 to 25 knots
with gusts close to 30 knots at area buoys) and elevated seas (currently
8 to 10 feet at area buoys) are expected through Monday night. A Small
Craft Advisory is in place for all waters and will gradually end from
the coast towards farther offshore throughout the day on Tuesday.
Elevated water levels are expected for the next couple of high tide
cycles, causing minor flooding near the coast as well as strong rip
currents for the Gulf facing beaches. A cold front will pass through
Tuesday and may stall over the coastal waters, resulting in much weaker
east to northeast winds prevailing into the middle of the week. This
front will also account for periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen
that is forecasted by the National Hurricane Center to make its way
into the north central Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week and into
the start of the weekend. Our waters could see increasing east winds
and building seas from this system.
42
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is forecasted by the National Hurricane
Center to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael today as it moves northward
then northwestward to near Jamaica by late today and near or over the
Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. The system could then become
a hurricane as it continues northwestward towards western Cuba. Weakening
is forecasted to occur as the system makes progress toward the north
central Gulf of Mexico (south of Louisiana) over the weekend. At this
time, the only influence this system should have on our area will be
increasing east winds and building seas across our coastal waters toward
the end of the week and on into the weekend.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 62 71 53 / 60 90 50 10
Houston (IAH) 85 67 73 61 / 50 80 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 71 77 69 / 30 50 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
Here is the 48-hour WPC forecast. Hopefully the front tonight brings some widespread rain across SE Texas.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Space Center Weather
Eric Berger
Stormy setup tonight and early Tuesday as a weak front arrives, and what’s that in the tropics?
November 4, 2024 at 7:35 am by Eric Berger
In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front.
Stormy setup
Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.
Storm outlook for Monday night.
In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.
Monday
Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.
Tuesday
After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Low temperatures on Wednesday morning.
Wednesday
As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.
Thursday and Friday
These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.
Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.
Eric Berger
Stormy setup tonight and early Tuesday as a weak front arrives, and what’s that in the tropics?
November 4, 2024 at 7:35 am by Eric Berger
In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front.
Stormy setup
Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.
Storm outlook for Monday night.
In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.
Monday
Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.
Tuesday
After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Low temperatures on Wednesday morning.
Wednesday
As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.
Thursday and Friday
These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.
Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.
Picked up 5 inches of rain here 
. I will need to watch the storm system later this week for the possibility of more heavy rain and severe weather over here.
As for SE Texas the HRRR is showing isolated amounts of up to 4+ inches of rain.As the front will slow down once it gets into SE Texas due to bumping against the SE ridge. This is good news as it will prolong the period of rainfall over the area.
. I will need to watch the storm system later this week for the possibility of more heavy rain and severe weather over here.As for SE Texas the HRRR is showing isolated amounts of up to 4+ inches of rain.As the front will slow down once it gets into SE Texas due to bumping against the SE ridge. This is good news as it will prolong the period of rainfall over the area.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Tornado Watch for DFW. It's Texas storm season.
Some places have been piling-up the totals with the training streamer showers.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Stratton20, TexasBreeze and 8 guests