October 2024
Fall FROPA - potential still about Nov 7. Euro-AI continues to be the most optimistic. GFS is backing off a little.
Texarrakis has spread the Dry. Stunning look at the breadbasket:
https://x.com/wxkaitlynj/status/1851038361898643628
https://x.com/wxkaitlynj/status/1851038361898643628
What are these green spots showing up on radar tonight?
It’s supposed to be pretty windy up here today. I knew it would be windy up here but It happens more often than I thought it did. The criteria for a wind advisory is also higher here, as it seems they don’t issue them until winds reach 45mph or higher.
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-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
583
FXUS64 KHGX 291136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500MB heights/winds RAP analysis
clearly show an amplified pattern taking shape over CONUS. A
mid/upper ridge axis extends from Texas to the Great Lakes, while a
deep layer trough is digging southward over the West Coast states.
The trough and ridge will migrate eastward, placing the bulk of the
ridging over E CONUS and the trough axis over the Rockies by this
afternoon. PVA from the trough and lee side vorticity stretching
over the plains is inducing LL cyclogenesis over the Central Plains.
The resulting gradient will enhance deep, moist LL (sfc-850 MB) flow
from the S to SE across our region today. In more laymen`s terms,
expect a breezy, warm, and humid day with a chance for a few spotty
showers. Inland highs are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s (low
80s at the coast), then falling into the low 70s overnight (mid 70s
near the coast and within Houston`s urban heat island).
The trough and sfc low meld into a more vertically stacked system
on Wednesday as it tracks WNW towards the Great Lakes / Midwest. At
first glance, this doesn`t appear to be much of rainfall maker for
SE Texas since most of the synoptic scale lift remains well to our
north. However, nearly all the guidance (deterministic, hi-res/short
term/ ensemble) suggest a decent chance of showers and perhaps even
a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. How can that be without the large
scale lift? First of all, we are dealing with one heck of a PWAT
surge thanks to the aforementioned SE LL flow from the Gulf.
Ensemble mean PWATs for Wednesday are in the 1.60 to 1.80 inch
range. HREF means indicate those values could approach 2.0 inches
near the coast. In addition, HREF mean sfc based CAPE show
widespread 1000-1500 J/kg across the area. Even HREF min CAPE brings
~1000 J/kg to our coastal counties. The LL/ML flow may become
somewhat convergent, with small (but not insignificant) vort maxes
embedded in the LL/ML flow as per most of the guidance. The
instability, modest LL convergence, LL/ML vorticity coupled with an
environment rich in moisture should be enough for at least scattered
showers across the region. CAMs guidance is suggesting the potential
for a few thunderstorms, primarily along and east of I-45.
Wednesday`s PoPs are primarily 60-70% (lower in our western
counties). Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the low/mid 80s.
A few locations in our SW counties may be in the upper 80s.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Will continue to carry elevated rain/storm chances on Thursday as a
weak cold front moves into the area and stalls. This feature along
with persistently elevated moisture levels and possible weak impulses
in a southwest flow aloft will result in continued rain chances for
Friday and Saturday, with the higher numbers coming in the afternoon
due to some daytime heating. With the expected washout of the front,
these rain chances come down a bit Sunday and Monday (slightly better
chances up north versus south). High temperatures will generally be
in the 80s throughout the period, but some of the wetter locations might
end up closer to an upper 70s to around 80 range. Lows will generally
be in a mid/upper 60s to lower 70s range. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
The primary concern for today will be gusty southeasterly winds.
Winds should increase to around 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
later this morning. Worth mentioning that some guidance is
indicating stronger winds, showing potential for gusts up to 30
knots. The chance of rain today is low. Therefore, no mention of
rain has been added for today. However, there may be isolated
showers by this afternoon. Therefore, the radar will need to
monitored closely for possible amendments. Tonight, winds become
less gusty while CIGs gradually lower. There is decent model
agreement regarding MVFR cigs after 05-06Z. Confidence in CIGs is
lower south of I-10. Chance of rain increases by ~08-09Z near the
coast before increasing inland afterward.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Strengthening onshore winds and building seas will continue to support
caution and advisory flags across the waters today and tonight. A decreasing
trend in both winds and seas begins on Wednesday and continues into
Friday resulting in the eventual lifting of some of these flags. The
persistent onshore flow will bring an increasing rip current risk and
tidal levels on Gulf-facing beaches for much of the week. Low rain chances
through tonight will increase on Wednesday. Periods of showers and possible
storms will then persist for the remainder of the week and on into the
weekend. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 87 70 / 20 10 60 60
Houston (IAH) 86 74 85 73 / 10 20 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 73 / 10 20 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-355-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 291136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500MB heights/winds RAP analysis
clearly show an amplified pattern taking shape over CONUS. A
mid/upper ridge axis extends from Texas to the Great Lakes, while a
deep layer trough is digging southward over the West Coast states.
The trough and ridge will migrate eastward, placing the bulk of the
ridging over E CONUS and the trough axis over the Rockies by this
afternoon. PVA from the trough and lee side vorticity stretching
over the plains is inducing LL cyclogenesis over the Central Plains.
The resulting gradient will enhance deep, moist LL (sfc-850 MB) flow
from the S to SE across our region today. In more laymen`s terms,
expect a breezy, warm, and humid day with a chance for a few spotty
showers. Inland highs are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s (low
80s at the coast), then falling into the low 70s overnight (mid 70s
near the coast and within Houston`s urban heat island).
The trough and sfc low meld into a more vertically stacked system
on Wednesday as it tracks WNW towards the Great Lakes / Midwest. At
first glance, this doesn`t appear to be much of rainfall maker for
SE Texas since most of the synoptic scale lift remains well to our
north. However, nearly all the guidance (deterministic, hi-res/short
term/ ensemble) suggest a decent chance of showers and perhaps even
a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. How can that be without the large
scale lift? First of all, we are dealing with one heck of a PWAT
surge thanks to the aforementioned SE LL flow from the Gulf.
Ensemble mean PWATs for Wednesday are in the 1.60 to 1.80 inch
range. HREF means indicate those values could approach 2.0 inches
near the coast. In addition, HREF mean sfc based CAPE show
widespread 1000-1500 J/kg across the area. Even HREF min CAPE brings
~1000 J/kg to our coastal counties. The LL/ML flow may become
somewhat convergent, with small (but not insignificant) vort maxes
embedded in the LL/ML flow as per most of the guidance. The
instability, modest LL convergence, LL/ML vorticity coupled with an
environment rich in moisture should be enough for at least scattered
showers across the region. CAMs guidance is suggesting the potential
for a few thunderstorms, primarily along and east of I-45.
Wednesday`s PoPs are primarily 60-70% (lower in our western
counties). Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the low/mid 80s.
A few locations in our SW counties may be in the upper 80s.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Will continue to carry elevated rain/storm chances on Thursday as a
weak cold front moves into the area and stalls. This feature along
with persistently elevated moisture levels and possible weak impulses
in a southwest flow aloft will result in continued rain chances for
Friday and Saturday, with the higher numbers coming in the afternoon
due to some daytime heating. With the expected washout of the front,
these rain chances come down a bit Sunday and Monday (slightly better
chances up north versus south). High temperatures will generally be
in the 80s throughout the period, but some of the wetter locations might
end up closer to an upper 70s to around 80 range. Lows will generally
be in a mid/upper 60s to lower 70s range. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
The primary concern for today will be gusty southeasterly winds.
Winds should increase to around 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
later this morning. Worth mentioning that some guidance is
indicating stronger winds, showing potential for gusts up to 30
knots. The chance of rain today is low. Therefore, no mention of
rain has been added for today. However, there may be isolated
showers by this afternoon. Therefore, the radar will need to
monitored closely for possible amendments. Tonight, winds become
less gusty while CIGs gradually lower. There is decent model
agreement regarding MVFR cigs after 05-06Z. Confidence in CIGs is
lower south of I-10. Chance of rain increases by ~08-09Z near the
coast before increasing inland afterward.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Strengthening onshore winds and building seas will continue to support
caution and advisory flags across the waters today and tonight. A decreasing
trend in both winds and seas begins on Wednesday and continues into
Friday resulting in the eventual lifting of some of these flags. The
persistent onshore flow will bring an increasing rip current risk and
tidal levels on Gulf-facing beaches for much of the week. Low rain chances
through tonight will increase on Wednesday. Periods of showers and possible
storms will then persist for the remainder of the week and on into the
weekend. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 87 70 / 20 10 60 60
Houston (IAH) 86 74 85 73 / 10 20 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 73 / 10 20 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-355-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...42
Even crazier up on the Llano Estacado….
It’s a different world up there for sure.
When is the next realistic shot of cold weather coming down? I'm only seeing a brief stint in the mid 60s for lows and highs in the mid 80s for the next week.
Parts north of Amarillo look like the moon along the Canadian river "floodplain."
SE30 G40 here in CLL. Like late April ahead of one of those dry lines or troughs that go full Lucy on us.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Ensembles generally agree sometime during the first week of november we get a strong frontal passage with highs in the low 70’s to upper 60’s for a week or so, if the GEFS/ GEPS are to be believed, they dont have any massive warm ups for the south through the 2nd week of november
Euro, GFS, CMC all have FROPAs during Nov 1-8 hitting the wall in Texas. Nada for SETX.
Maybe on significant rain (> 1 inch).
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu ensembles do bring cooler air into se texas
I don't see even lows below 60°F (upper 40s in CLL) until Nov. 10. Highs in the 60s to low 70s. And that's on GFS. Euro is barely breaking 60°F for lows.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GEPS agrees with the GEFS/ GFS, highs in the mid 70’s looks like a pretty good bet to be honest
GEFS has cooler air Nov 9/10. GPS barely has significant cooling. Keep in mind that there's going to be a massive battle between the Western trough and Eastern ridge. Don, OK, KS, TN could see severe weather. SETX and the Gulf are just a moisture vessel. Potentially 2 weeks of bumpy weather north of us.
On cue from OKC NWS. Once the boundary catches up, straight line wind events...but it could get interesting along the leading edge.
Severe weather is also expected Wednesday afternoon along the
advancing Pacific front. Two scenarios are possible in regards to
the severe threat:
1.) Surface winds will have a more southerly component, which
will help maintain discrete cells as they form along the frontal
boundary in western Oklahoma. With 50-60 kts of deep layer shear
and decent MLCAPE (~1000-1500 J/kg), all hazards will be possible
with the strongest storms. Eventually in this scenario, the large
scale ascent will quickly catch up to the boundary during the
evening and storms will form into a line as they move eastward.
2.) Surface winds veer ahead of the advancing boundary, which in
turn, would favor a more linear mode. With this mode of
convection, given the same thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
damaging winds will be the main threat (but can`t rule out a
tornado along the leading edge and large hail with initial
storms).
In both of these scenarios, there is still one underlying theme:
Severe weather is possible Wednesday! Now is the best time to
make your plan.
Severe weather is also expected Wednesday afternoon along the
advancing Pacific front. Two scenarios are possible in regards to
the severe threat:
1.) Surface winds will have a more southerly component, which
will help maintain discrete cells as they form along the frontal
boundary in western Oklahoma. With 50-60 kts of deep layer shear
and decent MLCAPE (~1000-1500 J/kg), all hazards will be possible
with the strongest storms. Eventually in this scenario, the large
scale ascent will quickly catch up to the boundary during the
evening and storms will form into a line as they move eastward.
2.) Surface winds veer ahead of the advancing boundary, which in
turn, would favor a more linear mode. With this mode of
convection, given the same thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
damaging winds will be the main threat (but can`t rule out a
tornado along the leading edge and large hail with initial
storms).
In both of these scenarios, there is still one underlying theme:
Severe weather is possible Wednesday! Now is the best time to
make your plan.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yeah that southerly flow between the trough and the ridge could setup a nasty severe weather outbreak well to our north, but should keep rain chances going for se texas, the cooler weather is going to be dependent on what happens with the trough, does it cut off and become stuck over New mexico like what the euro and CMC suggest, or does the trough progress eastward enough to drag a pretty strong fall front through the area, models do not agree on the evolution of this trough
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
171
FXUS64 KHGX 292043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
The isolated to scattered showers that developed earlier this morn-
ing over the coastal/SW portions of the CWA have persisted through
this afternoon...some even moving as far north as Sealy. Otherwise
will be expecting this activity to weaken/diminish this evening as
winds/gusts decrease.
Models continue to indicate a decent surge of moisture in from the
Gulf overnight...with PWs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8" through tomor-
row afternoon. This along with possible embedded weak short waves,
daytime heating and strong WAA should be enough for scattered SHRA
coverage starting during the early morning near the coast...before
spreading well inland through the day. CAMs guidance does continue
to hint at the possibility of isolated TSRAs with this activity by
the afternoon.
As for temperatures, lows tonight and tomorrow night will warm with
readings in the lower 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s...
but upper 80s are possible if there are more breaks in the clouds.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
For those scouting out the trick-or-treat forecast...let`s just say
you may want to add in an umbrella or poncho into your costume
plans. Mother Nature can be cruel sometimes...dry the entire month
of October and then on the one day that we don`t want any rain for
maximum candy search time, of course it`s expected to rain. The rain
in the forecast comes courtesy of an approaching frontal boundary
from the north that is expected to stall out either just north or
right over the Brazos Valley on Thursday. That combined with
shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft and elevated PW
values (1.6-2.0") will lead to our best chances of rain in weeks.
The general evolution of these storms as of right now looks to be
scattered showers out ahead of the front, then a line of
showers/storms being sent out ahead of the frontal boundary. SPC
does have a small portion of our area (mainly around
Chambers/Galveston Counties) in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
for severe weather on Thursday. That`s for the off chance that we
see an isolated strong wind gust out of these storms, but chances
look fairly slim for that to occur. On the plus side, the increased
chances for rain will keep high temperatures relegated to the 80s.
That frontal boundary sticks around through Friday before washing
out, but the moisture and southwesterly flow aloft lingers so we
keep rain chances in the forecast going into the weekend. Rain
chances decrease going into Sunday and Monday leading to an upward
trend in temperatures with highs reaching back into the mid to upper
80s. The latter half of the weekend is when we start to see the
beginning signals of our potential next pattern shift. As a deep
upper level trough drifts through the western CONUS over the
weekend, surface low pressure will develop and strengthen on the lee
side of the Rockies. This in turn develops a rather robust LLJ (25-
40 kts) extending through Southeast Texas along with increasing
WAA/moisture advection in the surface low`s warm sector Sunday and
into early next week. There is a cold front associated with this
system and it is expected to AT LEAST push towards Southeast Texas
in the middle of next week, but it`s too early to lock this one in.
Too much uncertainty remains in that with the difference between the
upper and lower quartiles in the NBM temperature distribution being
10-15+F after midweek. However, we can at least say that rain
chances will be on the rise again going into the middle of next week
due to moisture convergence ahead of the front along with plenty of
PVA and LLJ enhancement.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Strong gusty SE winds (12-22kts/G25-30kts) will prevail this after-
noon. Isolated showers are also going to continue mainly across the
coastal counties south of I-10/west of I-45 through the day as well.
Rain chances and wind speeds should be decreasing this evening with
patchy MVFR ceilings likely developing overnight/early Weds morning.
But with moisture surging in from the Gulf, scattered WAA-type SHRA
could start moving into our southern terminals as early as 09Z, be-
fore spreading inland through the rest of the morning and afternoon
tomorrow. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
With moderate southeasterly winds and elevated seas around 5 to 7
feet persisting in the Gulf waters, a mixture of Small Craft
Advisories and caution flags remain in effect through Wednesday
morning. Another consequence of the elevated onshore flow is an
increase in rip current risk and tidal levels on Gulf-facing beaches
through the rest of the week. Chances for showers and storms
increases midweek and through the weekend. While winds and seas
trend downward after midweek, they both increase once again going
into the weekend and will likely lead to another period of caution
flags going into early next week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 87 71 84 / 10 40 40 70
Houston (IAH) 74 85 73 83 / 20 70 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 82 74 80 / 30 70 60 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 AM CDT Wednesday
through Wednesday morning for GMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ375.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 292043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
The isolated to scattered showers that developed earlier this morn-
ing over the coastal/SW portions of the CWA have persisted through
this afternoon...some even moving as far north as Sealy. Otherwise
will be expecting this activity to weaken/diminish this evening as
winds/gusts decrease.
Models continue to indicate a decent surge of moisture in from the
Gulf overnight...with PWs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8" through tomor-
row afternoon. This along with possible embedded weak short waves,
daytime heating and strong WAA should be enough for scattered SHRA
coverage starting during the early morning near the coast...before
spreading well inland through the day. CAMs guidance does continue
to hint at the possibility of isolated TSRAs with this activity by
the afternoon.
As for temperatures, lows tonight and tomorrow night will warm with
readings in the lower 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s...
but upper 80s are possible if there are more breaks in the clouds.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
For those scouting out the trick-or-treat forecast...let`s just say
you may want to add in an umbrella or poncho into your costume
plans. Mother Nature can be cruel sometimes...dry the entire month
of October and then on the one day that we don`t want any rain for
maximum candy search time, of course it`s expected to rain. The rain
in the forecast comes courtesy of an approaching frontal boundary
from the north that is expected to stall out either just north or
right over the Brazos Valley on Thursday. That combined with
shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft and elevated PW
values (1.6-2.0") will lead to our best chances of rain in weeks.
The general evolution of these storms as of right now looks to be
scattered showers out ahead of the front, then a line of
showers/storms being sent out ahead of the frontal boundary. SPC
does have a small portion of our area (mainly around
Chambers/Galveston Counties) in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
for severe weather on Thursday. That`s for the off chance that we
see an isolated strong wind gust out of these storms, but chances
look fairly slim for that to occur. On the plus side, the increased
chances for rain will keep high temperatures relegated to the 80s.
That frontal boundary sticks around through Friday before washing
out, but the moisture and southwesterly flow aloft lingers so we
keep rain chances in the forecast going into the weekend. Rain
chances decrease going into Sunday and Monday leading to an upward
trend in temperatures with highs reaching back into the mid to upper
80s. The latter half of the weekend is when we start to see the
beginning signals of our potential next pattern shift. As a deep
upper level trough drifts through the western CONUS over the
weekend, surface low pressure will develop and strengthen on the lee
side of the Rockies. This in turn develops a rather robust LLJ (25-
40 kts) extending through Southeast Texas along with increasing
WAA/moisture advection in the surface low`s warm sector Sunday and
into early next week. There is a cold front associated with this
system and it is expected to AT LEAST push towards Southeast Texas
in the middle of next week, but it`s too early to lock this one in.
Too much uncertainty remains in that with the difference between the
upper and lower quartiles in the NBM temperature distribution being
10-15+F after midweek. However, we can at least say that rain
chances will be on the rise again going into the middle of next week
due to moisture convergence ahead of the front along with plenty of
PVA and LLJ enhancement.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Strong gusty SE winds (12-22kts/G25-30kts) will prevail this after-
noon. Isolated showers are also going to continue mainly across the
coastal counties south of I-10/west of I-45 through the day as well.
Rain chances and wind speeds should be decreasing this evening with
patchy MVFR ceilings likely developing overnight/early Weds morning.
But with moisture surging in from the Gulf, scattered WAA-type SHRA
could start moving into our southern terminals as early as 09Z, be-
fore spreading inland through the rest of the morning and afternoon
tomorrow. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
With moderate southeasterly winds and elevated seas around 5 to 7
feet persisting in the Gulf waters, a mixture of Small Craft
Advisories and caution flags remain in effect through Wednesday
morning. Another consequence of the elevated onshore flow is an
increase in rip current risk and tidal levels on Gulf-facing beaches
through the rest of the week. Chances for showers and storms
increases midweek and through the weekend. While winds and seas
trend downward after midweek, they both increase once again going
into the weekend and will likely lead to another period of caution
flags going into early next week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 87 71 84 / 10 40 40 70
Houston (IAH) 74 85 73 83 / 20 70 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 82 74 80 / 30 70 60 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ350.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 AM CDT Wednesday
through Wednesday morning for GMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ375.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
014
FXUS64 KHGX 301139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
If you mostly care about the Halloween portion of the forecast,
please skip to the section under the sentence "Now let`s get spooky!"
Water vapor imagery this morning really tells today`s synoptic story
quite well. To our east, a mid/upper ridge builds over E CONUS. To
our west, a deep layer trough digs over the Rockies. From the Gulf,
a plum of tropical moisture surges northward towards Texas and
Louisiana. This plum is riding along deep S to SE LL flow (sfc-850
MB) between a developing low over the Central Plains and a sfc high
over the East Coast. Overall, this set up looks quite close to what
I was expecting when writing the AFD 24 hours ago....but with one
difference. That aforementioned plum is oriented a farther east than
the guidance suggested when I last sat at this desk. Model guidance
has responded to this eastward orientation, pointing the corridor of
deepest moisture more towards far East Texas (near the Louisiana
border) as opposed to the I-45 corridor. For this reason, we have
opted to lower today`s PoPs west of I-45. Our westernmost counties
now only have ~20-30 PoPs. PoPs increase as one heads east, reaching
~50-60% along I-45. Farther east, PoPs remain 60-70%.
So what does all this mean? Well, expect another breezy, humid day
but with a better chance of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. As implied in the paragraph above, the best chance of
seeing showers and a thunderstorm will be across the eastern half of
the CWA (I-45 points east). Afternoon highs are expected to range
from the low/mid 80s across our eastern counties, to the upper 80s
to near 90 across our western counties. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should diminish by the evening.
Now let`s get spooky!
The aforementioned sfc low will deepen and track ENE into the Great
Lake States for your All Hallows Eve. The bulk of the synoptic scale
ascent will remain well to our north. However, an associated
trailing cold front is expected to push towards are region while
becoming weaker and increasingly diffused. But even in its
increasingly diffused state, the front is expected to provide the
lift needed to spark off scattered showers and potentially a few
thunderstorms Halloween afternoon. The afternoon will be quite warm
and humid, with highs averaging in the mid 80s.
So what about trick-or-treat conditions?
The good news is that the shower/thunderstorm activity should
diminish as we head into the evening. But if you are taking the
little ones out particularly early (before sunset), then you may
want to keep an eye on the radar just in case. The chance of rain
will decrease as the evening progresses. Generally speaking, trick-
or-treat conditions appear quite humid. Therefore, the age old
Houston tradition of sweating while gallivanting in ones Halloween
costume will be on full display for this Halloween 2024!
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Warm temperatures and chances for rain/storms can be expected throughout
this period with a persistent onshore flow, elevated moisture levels
and weak mid/upper level disturbances riding along a southwest flow
aloft. It will be breezy at times, especially Sunday through Monday
night. Highs will be in the 80s while low continue in the 60s/70s.
Current rainfall totals through this period are around 1/2 inch near
the coast to between 1 and 1.50 inches towards the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods areas. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Stay tuned, because much cooler temperatures might be entering our area
toward the end of next week. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
This morning features a mix of MVFR and low end VFR conditions
along with widely scattered showers pushing inland from the Gulf.
Isolated to scattered rain showers are likely across the region
today. A brief moderate to heavy downpour is possible. We also
cannot rule out TSRA activity, especially for our terminals south
and east of the 59/69 corridor. SHRA/TSRA activity should diminish
this evening. However, there is growing evidence of falling
cigs/vis tonight. For now, we are going with widespread MVFR
beginning btwn 04-07UTC. Much of the guidance is suggesting IFR
conditions by tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Moderate onshore winds and elevated seas should continue today. While
winds and seas trend downward toward the end of the week, they both
increase once again going into the weekend. Showers and maybe some
thunderstorms will be possible each day. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 85 69 / 30 40 60 30
Houston (IAH) 86 73 85 71 / 60 20 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 80 73 / 60 30 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 301139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
If you mostly care about the Halloween portion of the forecast,
please skip to the section under the sentence "Now let`s get spooky!"
Water vapor imagery this morning really tells today`s synoptic story
quite well. To our east, a mid/upper ridge builds over E CONUS. To
our west, a deep layer trough digs over the Rockies. From the Gulf,
a plum of tropical moisture surges northward towards Texas and
Louisiana. This plum is riding along deep S to SE LL flow (sfc-850
MB) between a developing low over the Central Plains and a sfc high
over the East Coast. Overall, this set up looks quite close to what
I was expecting when writing the AFD 24 hours ago....but with one
difference. That aforementioned plum is oriented a farther east than
the guidance suggested when I last sat at this desk. Model guidance
has responded to this eastward orientation, pointing the corridor of
deepest moisture more towards far East Texas (near the Louisiana
border) as opposed to the I-45 corridor. For this reason, we have
opted to lower today`s PoPs west of I-45. Our westernmost counties
now only have ~20-30 PoPs. PoPs increase as one heads east, reaching
~50-60% along I-45. Farther east, PoPs remain 60-70%.
So what does all this mean? Well, expect another breezy, humid day
but with a better chance of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. As implied in the paragraph above, the best chance of
seeing showers and a thunderstorm will be across the eastern half of
the CWA (I-45 points east). Afternoon highs are expected to range
from the low/mid 80s across our eastern counties, to the upper 80s
to near 90 across our western counties. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should diminish by the evening.
Now let`s get spooky!
The aforementioned sfc low will deepen and track ENE into the Great
Lake States for your All Hallows Eve. The bulk of the synoptic scale
ascent will remain well to our north. However, an associated
trailing cold front is expected to push towards are region while
becoming weaker and increasingly diffused. But even in its
increasingly diffused state, the front is expected to provide the
lift needed to spark off scattered showers and potentially a few
thunderstorms Halloween afternoon. The afternoon will be quite warm
and humid, with highs averaging in the mid 80s.
So what about trick-or-treat conditions?
The good news is that the shower/thunderstorm activity should
diminish as we head into the evening. But if you are taking the
little ones out particularly early (before sunset), then you may
want to keep an eye on the radar just in case. The chance of rain
will decrease as the evening progresses. Generally speaking, trick-
or-treat conditions appear quite humid. Therefore, the age old
Houston tradition of sweating while gallivanting in ones Halloween
costume will be on full display for this Halloween 2024!
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Warm temperatures and chances for rain/storms can be expected throughout
this period with a persistent onshore flow, elevated moisture levels
and weak mid/upper level disturbances riding along a southwest flow
aloft. It will be breezy at times, especially Sunday through Monday
night. Highs will be in the 80s while low continue in the 60s/70s.
Current rainfall totals through this period are around 1/2 inch near
the coast to between 1 and 1.50 inches towards the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods areas. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Stay tuned, because much cooler temperatures might be entering our area
toward the end of next week. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
This morning features a mix of MVFR and low end VFR conditions
along with widely scattered showers pushing inland from the Gulf.
Isolated to scattered rain showers are likely across the region
today. A brief moderate to heavy downpour is possible. We also
cannot rule out TSRA activity, especially for our terminals south
and east of the 59/69 corridor. SHRA/TSRA activity should diminish
this evening. However, there is growing evidence of falling
cigs/vis tonight. For now, we are going with widespread MVFR
beginning btwn 04-07UTC. Much of the guidance is suggesting IFR
conditions by tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Moderate onshore winds and elevated seas should continue today. While
winds and seas trend downward toward the end of the week, they both
increase once again going into the weekend. Showers and maybe some
thunderstorms will be possible each day. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 85 69 / 30 40 60 30
Houston (IAH) 86 73 85 71 / 60 20 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 80 73 / 60 30 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams