I read of them "clouds" in a cartouche and Cuneiform Tablets
October 2024
I thought there was some reinforcement of drier air with a weak front…. What happened to that? It feels more humid this morning than the previous few. 94% in cypress. Those feels like at the air show today will be rough.
The front was only forecast to make it into the northern counties of southeast Texas before dissipating.
I didn’t get to watch local news yesterday but it was mentioned on space city weather and a few models a couple days ago. Knew it wasn’t packing much but was hopeful it would be a dry 90 today. Crap weather for late October.
Yeah, Schlocktober is a bust.JDsGN wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:08 amI didn’t get to watch local news yesterday but it was mentioned on space city weather and a few models a couple days ago. Knew it wasn’t packing much but was hopeful it would be a dry 90 today. Crap weather for late October.
90s to finish the month.
November will bring a change from near record temps to just above average, but still sucking. Thursday is the best chance of rain in CLL.
Yep. Time to enter, win the Lotto, and move.
When it looks like *I* wrote the NOAA forecast discussion, it could be time to move on down the road.
230
FXUS64 KHGX 261139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Welp, it looks like we managed to tie a record high at College
Station yesterday, and got enough of a push for the City of
Houston to snag a record high of its own. And...now that we`re in
the overnight hours, fog is cropping up about the area. Dense fog
is fairly patchy/isolated right now, but satellite indicates there
could be potential for more widespread fog, and so a dense fog
advisory has been issued for the coastal plain outside of the
Houston urban core. If there are indications that more urban areas
are also seeing visibility reductions, they will need to be added to
the current advisory area.
Whether foggy or stratusy, dense or not...things should improve
pretty quickly after 0900 or so. This puts us right on track to
take on daily heat records yet again. Like yesterday, College
Station and the Houston climate sites are going to be very, very
close even if I`m not explicitly forecasting a record. Again,
anything higher than my forecast is going to be a record. The
onshore flow should hold back Palacios and Galveston from
threatening their record highs as seriously, but it is still going
to be quite warm, with the eventual temps sure to be closer to
those records than to average.
Now, while we`re doing the fog and heat duet yet again, there will
be a weak front making its way into the region...it`s just
extremely unlikely to really make it all the way to our chunk of
Southeast Texas. The boundary will stall out to our north, and
that should largely be the end of things for that. I really don`t
want to overstate things, but we do have some nonzero probability
for the very lightest of light rain at both the north end of the
forecast area today, and over the Gulf waters (and maybe the
coast?) for the next night or two. Should the front push far
enough south, folks up towards the Pineywoods may get strafed by a
brief, light shower before the front dies out. Meanwhile, down
south, there is a little trough making its way westward across the
Gulf, on its way towards the NE Mexico coast. While the upper
trough axis supporting the front will already be past us, there
does look to be some minor vort blobs makings its way through the
pattern, and could help support a smattering of light showers.
This will mostly be out over the open Gulf 60+ miles out, but
there is a little model guidance hinting at a sprinkle as far
north as our immediate Gulf coast.
So...if anything falls from the sky in either of these two areas,
it`ll be surprising, but not completely out of left field. Best
odds? Dry across the area through the whole of the short term.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
The pattern changes in the long term with mid/upper troughing
developing over W CONUS while ridging sets up to our east. The
pattern won`t be noticeable on Monday with the continuation of hot
and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be well into the 80s to
near 90 (a little cooler at the coast). But by Tuesday, you`ll
notice the pattern change in the form of increasing southeasterly
winds. Lee side LL pressure falls over the plains will steepen the
LL gradient over our region. The moist, deep LL flow from the
Gulf will also result in a surge in PWs. By Wednesday and
Thursday, the environment becomes quite moist. Ensemble PW means
indicate PWs ~175% of normal (1.50-1.80 inches). The NBM and
global guidance is quite responsive to these PW values, indicating
30-40 PoPs on Wednesday and 60-80 PoPs on Thursday into Friday.
However, these high PoPs on Thursday/Friday could be a bit
overstated given that most of the large scale lift is expected to
be north of our region.
Therefore, we went with a more modest
40-50 PoPs on Thursday and 30-40 PoPs on Friday. We can always
increase these PoPs if needed if guidance continues to insist
better rainfall chances. The downside of this pattern is that it
will become increasingly humid while highs averaging in the mid
80s. Increasing humidity and clouds are expected to keep overnight
lows warmer with many areas struggling to drop below 70 at night
during the mid to latter part of the week.
Self
&&
When it looks like *I* wrote the NOAA forecast discussion, it could be time to move on down the road.
230
FXUS64 KHGX 261139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Welp, it looks like we managed to tie a record high at College
Station yesterday, and got enough of a push for the City of
Houston to snag a record high of its own. And...now that we`re in
the overnight hours, fog is cropping up about the area. Dense fog
is fairly patchy/isolated right now, but satellite indicates there
could be potential for more widespread fog, and so a dense fog
advisory has been issued for the coastal plain outside of the
Houston urban core. If there are indications that more urban areas
are also seeing visibility reductions, they will need to be added to
the current advisory area.
Whether foggy or stratusy, dense or not...things should improve
pretty quickly after 0900 or so. This puts us right on track to
take on daily heat records yet again. Like yesterday, College
Station and the Houston climate sites are going to be very, very
close even if I`m not explicitly forecasting a record. Again,
anything higher than my forecast is going to be a record. The
onshore flow should hold back Palacios and Galveston from
threatening their record highs as seriously, but it is still going
to be quite warm, with the eventual temps sure to be closer to
those records than to average.
Now, while we`re doing the fog and heat duet yet again, there will
be a weak front making its way into the region...it`s just
extremely unlikely to really make it all the way to our chunk of
Southeast Texas. The boundary will stall out to our north, and
that should largely be the end of things for that. I really don`t
want to overstate things, but we do have some nonzero probability
for the very lightest of light rain at both the north end of the
forecast area today, and over the Gulf waters (and maybe the
coast?) for the next night or two. Should the front push far
enough south, folks up towards the Pineywoods may get strafed by a
brief, light shower before the front dies out. Meanwhile, down
south, there is a little trough making its way westward across the
Gulf, on its way towards the NE Mexico coast. While the upper
trough axis supporting the front will already be past us, there
does look to be some minor vort blobs makings its way through the
pattern, and could help support a smattering of light showers.
This will mostly be out over the open Gulf 60+ miles out, but
there is a little model guidance hinting at a sprinkle as far
north as our immediate Gulf coast.
So...if anything falls from the sky in either of these two areas,
it`ll be surprising, but not completely out of left field. Best
odds? Dry across the area through the whole of the short term.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
The pattern changes in the long term with mid/upper troughing
developing over W CONUS while ridging sets up to our east. The
pattern won`t be noticeable on Monday with the continuation of hot
and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be well into the 80s to
near 90 (a little cooler at the coast). But by Tuesday, you`ll
notice the pattern change in the form of increasing southeasterly
winds. Lee side LL pressure falls over the plains will steepen the
LL gradient over our region. The moist, deep LL flow from the
Gulf will also result in a surge in PWs. By Wednesday and
Thursday, the environment becomes quite moist. Ensemble PW means
indicate PWs ~175% of normal (1.50-1.80 inches). The NBM and
global guidance is quite responsive to these PW values, indicating
30-40 PoPs on Wednesday and 60-80 PoPs on Thursday into Friday.
However, these high PoPs on Thursday/Friday could be a bit
overstated given that most of the large scale lift is expected to
be north of our region.
Therefore, we went with a more modest40-50 PoPs on Thursday and 30-40 PoPs on Friday. We can always
increase these PoPs if needed if guidance continues to insist
better rainfall chances. The downside of this pattern is that it
will become increasingly humid while highs averaging in the mid
80s. Increasing humidity and clouds are expected to keep overnight
lows warmer with many areas struggling to drop below 70 at night
during the mid to latter part of the week.
Self
&&
If this very wet pattern that the models show starting next week and going into November verifies. I need to give some credit to the EURO AI as it has been showing this pattern change for over a week now. I've been pretty impressed in this model so far and i am looking forward to seeing how it performs this winter. Texas is far enough west to sometimes benefit from the active storm track into the Pacific Northwest during La Niña's. Specifically when these storm systems/troughs get cut off from the main flow aloft and dive south into California and the desert southwest.
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Stratton20
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- Contact:
Man i like the pattern on fhe GFS, very progressive with the storm track further south coming out of west texas, another big front in 10 days according to the GFS, with more widespread rain, starting to see a more active storm track thanks to the -PNA finally weakening
Heckuva comeback by my Aggies. Glad we have a coach with the stones to yank a struggling starting QB.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GIG EM BABY! What a Win
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CrashTestDummy
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
- Location: Pearland, Texas
- Contact:
That’s just the smoke patterns left from the Blue Angel’s demonstration at the Wings Over Houston air show going on at Ellington Field this weekend.
In other news, we were watching the weather report on a local TV channel while prepping dinner last night, and of note were 50-60% rain chance midweek next week. I told my bride that that was the usual ‘be happy’ optimistic weekend weather report. Their weekday Met will show up Monday and dash those hopes.
I’m really hoping not, though. The grass in the yard isn’t growing anymore.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Yep. Euro AI was the only believer a week ago. I'm still skeptical, but a stalled FROPA, embedded lows, maybe some SJT action and EPAC moisture?don wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 3:13 pm If this very wet pattern that the models show starting next week and going into November verifies. I need to give some credit to the EURO AI as it has been showing this pattern change for over a week now. I've been pretty impressed in this model so far and i am looking forward to seeing how it performs this winter. Texas is far enough west to sometimes benefit from the active storm track into the Pacific Northwest during La Niña's. Specifically when these storm systems/troughs get cut off from the main flow aloft and dive south into California and the desert southwest.
Reed is still learning as a passer, but he's a much better fit for Klein's system, that uses a running QB. Weigman's fine...if no one touches him, he doesn't have to move or run.
Plus LSU had not prepared for some version of the veer offense.
USCe will be a mega test for Reed and A&M...Beamerball will have a week to prepare.
Interesting - Euro AI and CMC are sniffing out tropical mischief poised to enter the Golf - Florida again?
CMC isn't that optimistic on significant rainfall. It will be moist/humid. GFS is a believer. Euro has the heavier rainfall NW of SETX - past Hearne toward Waco, Hill Country. Ensembles are leaning toward the Euro solution.
Euro show the most rain with the Nov 1 event east of I-45 and a Nov 4 solution largely north of Hwy 79. So, some rain, but not a lot. Cloudy and highs a bit cooler because of the clouds.
CMC isn't that optimistic on significant rainfall. It will be moist/humid. GFS is a believer. Euro has the heavier rainfall NW of SETX - past Hearne toward Waco, Hill Country. Ensembles are leaning toward the Euro solution.
Euro show the most rain with the Nov 1 event east of I-45 and a Nov 4 solution largely north of Hwy 79. So, some rain, but not a lot. Cloudy and highs a bit cooler because of the clouds.
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Sorry about the glitch - here are the other two images.
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Oh I understand that, but I’ve never seen one player make that much of a difference so quickly like that. Literally day and night.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:04 pmReed is still learning as a passer, but he's a much better fit for Klein's system, that uses a running QB. Weigman's fine...if no one touches him, he doesn't have to move or run.
Plus LSU had not prepared for some version of the veer offense.
USCe will be a mega test for Reed and A&M...Beamerball will have a week to prepare.
The 12z GFS looks great. Now only if that could happen.
Don - any severe weather near you potentially around Nov 3-4 when the trough starts digin in? Or projects to be most E and NE of you?