October 2024

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza...

[DoctorMu]

90°F today. A day early.

[DoctorMu]

The models are delaying and weakening the FROPA. So predictable.

The rain is now mostly north of here.

We're days off. It could flip again...

...or not.

The DP in a week looks really bad.

We had a decent Fall last year. Not so good this year.

[Stratton20]

Knowing SE texas, i bet we are going to see some wicked arctic outbreak later in the winter, these la ninas never fail to provide some of the most extreme weather swings here in texas lol

[Ptarmigan]

Tropical Storm Trami/Kristine over the Philippines. It is a large storm dumping heavy rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Knowing SE texas, i bet we are going to see some wicked arctic outbreak later in the winter, these la ninas never fail to provide some of the most extreme weather swings here in texas lol

So very true. That happened in 1895, 1899, 1924, 1951, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021.

[Cpv17]

Knowing SE texas, i bet we are going to see some wicked arctic outbreak later in the winter, these la ninas never fail to provide some of the most extreme weather swings here in texas lol

So very true. That happened in 1895, 1899, 1924, 1951, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021.

How many of these were first year La Niñas?

[user:null]

And how many of those arctic outbreaks necessarily focused more on Texas (e.g. 2011, 2021) versus spread more into the SE (e.g. 1989, 1996, and 2018)?

[Cpv17]

I know 2021 was a first year La Niña. Not sure about the others.

[Stratton20]

Not seeing much rain in the models, yet noaa upped odds of above normal precipitation for the whole state in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, clearly they see something we dont

[JDsGN]

Not seeing much rain in the models, yet noaa upped odds of above normal precipitation for the whole state in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, clearly they see something we dont

They had us above average rainfall for the last 2 weeks back on the one released on Oct 11th. Not buying it.

[tireman4]

248
FXUS64 KHGX 232022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Tranquil conditions expected tonight with mostly clear skies and
light winds. The lows overnight will be mainly in the low 60s
inland and in the upper 60s along the immediate coasts. We might
have a small area of dry air slowly moving in from the southeast
but it could be slow enough to allow for our dewpoints to be once
again similar to our temperatures during the overnight to early
morning hours. If that is the case, then the combination of the
low dewpoint spreads, clear skies, and light wind flow could
result in areas of fog developing over portions of Southeast Texas
and may affect the morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory may be
issued if visibilities lower to one-quarter mile or less, which
could make driving conditions hazardous. If driving through areas
of fog, slow down and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Fog
is expected to lift and burn off shortly after sunrise, although
some spots could see patchy fog lingering through mid morning.

For the rest of the day Thursday, expect mostly sunny skies and
highs in the upper 80s inland and in the low to mid 80s along the
coasts. Conditions will feel a little nicer in the late afternoon
to evening hours as dewpoints lower into the mid 50s to low 60s
in response to a mid to upper level trough moving overhead and
that patch of dry air passing through our region. The dry air
will quickly shift northeast, however, and be replaced by a small
surge of low level moisture during the overnight hours. Thus, we
might have to deal with areas of patchy fog again.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

No significant changes with continued warm conditions. Prevalent
mid/upper ridging to the west and low level ridging across the
eastern CONUS and central Gulf states. Look for temps to run 5-10F
above seasonal norms.

As far as rainfall goes, most of us won`t see any. One exception
might be around the Matagorda Bay area on Friday where an isolated
shower or two can`t completely be ruled out. This would be in
conjunction with a brief bump in PW values and a diffuse mid level
trof/disturbance passing through. Chances might go up during the
second half of next week when we get some deeper moisture into the
area. Even then, there`s no larger scale focusing mechanism in the
neighborhood.

47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

S-SE winds at 4-8 KT and VFR conditions expected through early
tonight. Light VRB winds expected overnight into early Thu morning
along with areas of patchy fog over portions of SE TX and may
result in periods of IFR-MVFR vis and/or cigs. Fog is expected to
lift and burn off shortly after sunrise.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Light southeast and east winds will persist through the weekend
along with seas generally in the 2-3ft range. The pressure gradient
tightens next week along with a corresponding bump in winds/seas.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 63 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 81 72 82 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...47

[Ptarmigan]

Knowing SE texas, i bet we are going to see some wicked arctic outbreak later in the winter, these la ninas never fail to provide some of the most extreme weather swings here in texas lol

So very true. That happened in 1895, 1899, 1924, 1951, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021.

How many of these were first year La Niñas?

1924, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021 were first year La Niñas. There was an icestorm in December 1924.

[Cpv17]

So very true. That happened in 1895, 1899, 1924, 1951, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021.

How many of these were first year La Niñas?

1924, 1983, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2021 were first year La Niñas. There was an icestorm in December 1924.

Interesting.

[tireman4]

827
FXUS64 KHGX 241106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Heat and fog remain the two major focal points of the forecast for
the time being, though we continue to look out towards the middle
of next week for some change. A few of the high points:
- Fog is a potential hazard each morning until we can get a
significant change in the environment of calm, mostly clear
nights with dewpoints in the 60s. Small fluctuations will
influence how dense/widespread the fog gets, so stay on top of
any dense fog advisories each morning, and be alert to rapidly
changing conditions on your morning commute.
- The broad picture of inland areas reaching well into the 80s
with isolated spots around/over 90 degrees looks to continue for
several days. We`ll continue to be in the general neighborhood
of records; and while most will fall short of those numbers,
localized hot spots could snag a record here or there (see:
Houston yesterday). Those who are sensitive to heat and/or those
who work strenuously out in full sun will want to keep aware of
heat stress in themselves and others.
- For a bit of a silver lining, dewpoints in the 60s will provide
some humidity, but will likely not push conditions to levels
hazardous beyond sensitive groups of people. Also, this will
allow overnight temperatures to cool enough to provide some
relief after dark.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

There`s...not a whole lot different in the situation tonight
compared to last night. We still sit to the west of a broad high
pressure center over the northern Gulf coast. One modest
difference is that fog so far tonight is more patchy than it was
the previous night that eventually resulted in the need for dense
fog advisories. With that said, it is still fairly early and there
are more widespread areas of dense fog both higher up the coast
and down the coast, and there will be an opportunity for that to
fill in more before the sun rises, dissipating any fog that occurs
through mid-morning.

Temperatures today may be a bit interesting. Aloft, a northern
stream trough looks to move through the Central Plains, amplifying
a midlevel ridge to our east, and denting 500 mb heights over
Texas. 850 temps do also look to briefly dip, but recover and
potentially even increase a bit by late afternoon. With some mixed
signals on how to trend temps, I am largely content to keep
things in a similar spot and ride with the model consensus. This
ends up being ever so slightly cooler than yesterday, so maybe we
escape any records today? But any differences from the previous
day will be slight, so this is largely an academic distinction
while impacts remain the same - continued levels of height
closer to records than to averages.

If you`re looking for anything different tomorrow, I got some real
bad news for ya. Winds may hang on a bit in the evening, slowing
fog potential, but we still get to light/calm winds in the end,
and an environment that should encourage another round of at least
some patchy fog. That will dissipate in the few hours after
sunrise, setting us up for another day with highs in the 80s to
around 90. The aforementioned trough will be making its way off to
the east, and we end up with a similar group of mixed signals,
just reversed. Midlevel heights over Texas will be rising, but 850
mb temps are progged to dip slightly. So...yeah...you probably
guessed it, temperatures are probably not going to be
significantly different yet again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

The long term forecast remains stagnant, with a weak upper level
trough progged to bring northwesterly flow aloft through Monday.
LREF Ensemble 1000mb-500mb thicknesses for the Houston area decline
to 568-570 dam by Sunday, with mean 850mb temperatures falling to
around 14-16C. However, these changes don`t appear to significantly
alter the temperature forecast from day-to-day. Bearing this in
mind, highs will still broadly be in the the 80s with a few spots
breaking the 90 degree mark. Lows will be in the upper 50s/60s and
lower 70s along the coast. Low PWs and stable conditions should keep
SE Texas dry through the end of the week.

The upper level trough axis will shift further east of the state
early next week, while a deeper upper level trough digs into the
Pacific Northwest/Great Basin. The broad consensus of model guidance
suggest that ridging will briefly set in over SE Texas on Tuesday,
evident in ensemble mean thickness rising to 574 dam. Strengthening
onshore flow should funnel additional moisture into our area,
increasing overnight temperatures. Lows for Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning are expected to reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. On
Wednesday, the ridge axis shift eastward into the East/SE CONUS as
the aforementioned upper level trough sweeps across the
Central/Northern Plains. PWs reaching 1.4-1.8 inches, reduced
subsidence and weak impulses/disturbances passing overhead should
bring higher rain chances back into the forecast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Challenging first few hours again this morning, with dense fog
just to the west and east of terminals, with lesser to no impact
down the TAF corridor. Strategy for next few hours is to have the
lesser impact prevailing, but with higher impact TEMPOs as VSBY
does tend to drop for a brief stretch right around to shortly
after sunrise.

Beyond this morning`s fog, light/VRB winds strengthen to 5-10 kts
and become more southeasterly, which return to light/VRB tonight.
Fog potential also returns, and have sketched out a broad window
for when that development is generally expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Light to moderate east to southeast winds can be expected through
the end of the work week, with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Winds and seas
will increase slightly over the weekend into the beginning of next
week. Caution flags will likely be needed as winds approach 15 to 20
knots and seas rise to 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

The City of Houston managed to snag a tie of its record high for
the day yesterday. The temperature was able to reach 91, tying the
record mark last recorded in 2020, and 1988 before that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 63 89 65 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 65 88 67 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 72 82 71 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ200-210-
211-214-226-227-235>237-300-335.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

[don]

Thank goodness we’re getting a cool front tonight. I’m sick of the high being in the 90s. Hopefully today is the last day in the 90s for the rest of Fall and Winter.

[DoctorMu]

90°F Tuesday, 90°F yesterday, 90° today and dry through Halloween.

[DoctorMu]

Thank goodness we’re getting a cool front tonight. I’m sick of the high being in the 90s. Hopefully today is the last day in the 90s for the rest of Fall and Winter.

NOAA has 91°F for you on Monday. But the weekend looks good for you.

More misery down here.

[DoctorMu]

Potential major front around Nov5 (GFS, CMC), but there's uncertainty overall as a trough in the West battles a ridge in the East. It *could* mean rain for us? We'll see.

checking...GFS and CMC move the energy north. Euro AI gives us a chance.

I'll go with Lucy until proven otherwise.

[Stratton20]

ICON also moves the front through SE texas with highs in the upper 60’s next week, CMC very strong front with heavy rain oit ahead of it