By Matt Lanza on October 14, 2024
Headlines
Invest 94L is in the middle of the central Atlantic and has about a 50/50 chance to develop as it comes west this week.
Any development would likely be slow to occur and modest impacts to the Caribbean are possible by the weekend.
We anticipate that 94L would fall prey to copious amounts of wind shear in the southwest Atlantic and Gulf before it makes it to the U.S., and it is unlikely to ever be a serious threat to the Southeast.
No other noteworthy developments are expected.
Invest 94L: Worth watching, but not a very serious concern
The next disturbance we have our eyes on is Invest 94L, a tropical wave moving through the Atlantic right now. The NHC is giving this about a 50/50 shot at development over the next several days.
A tropical system has about a 50/50 chance to develop in the Atlantic over the next few days.
If you live in Florida, at first glance, your stomach may sink, but in reality, it is mid-October, not mid-August. Storms generally do not form here and long track their way to the United States. Also, it's important to note that the hatched area is not the track of a nascent system but rather the area in which the system may develop. In other words, Invest 94L may develop somewhere in that orange hatched region. If it develops.
So over the next several days, Invest 94L will come westward.
Where is Invest 94L? It's the little area of thunderstorms in the middle of the image.
For now at least, 94L is located in a pretty hostile area with lots of dry air surrounding it, and a bit of shear in the vicinity too. Over the next couple days, that may back off some, and that's when 94L could make an effort to develop slowly. If there is a point where 94L has its best chance of developing, it's probably in about 3 days as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and perhaps the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Again, development is probably going to be sluggish here, so we aren't expecting a Milton or Helene-esque blast of rapid intensification or anything. But if you are in the islands or planning to visit the eastern Caribbean islands this weekend, it's something you'll at least want to monitor. Most modeling keeps the ceiling on 94L low as it moves into the islands.
From there, it's going to be difficult to see Invest 94L making it much farther west while remaining intact. There is a wall of wind shear forecast to be over the Gulf and Southeast this weekend which would almost certainly shred 94L or whatever it is at that point (provided Hispaniola doesn't get to shred it first). In other words, by the time we get later into the weekend or early next week, it's difficult to think that this one remains a major concern.
Copious wind shear should do the job on 94L/Nadine eventually.
So bottom line on Invest 94L: Watch it in the Caribbean. Keep tabs on it to the west. But in general, we do not believe this one will be a major issue at this time.
Elsewhere
There's nothing else we really have our eyes on. We are seeing some periodic signs of Caribbean development from the GFS model in particular. That seems to have very limited ensemble support or support from other models that have performed well this tropical season. At this point, the only organized system they seem to be picking up over the next 7 to 10 days is Invest 94L. So we anticipate that'll be the only real game in town for a bit.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
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tireman4
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent
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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
By Eric Berger on October 16, 2024
Headlines
94L in the Central Atlantic Ocean continues to putter along
Significant development is less likely as the system nears the Caribbean Sea
Parts of Central America could see heavy rainfall over the next week from tropical moisture
Overall there appear to be no threats to the United States over the forecast period
Seven-day tropical outlook as of Wednesday morning.
Invest 94L
We're continuing to track an area of low pressure that is moving across the central Atlantic Ocean. Overall, this system is expected to continue moving more or less westward, or just north of due west, this week. This would put it in the vicinity of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola by this weekend. We can be fairly confident in this general track. What I'm less certain of this morning is whether anything actually develops.
Most of the ensemble members of the GFS model indicate there's not much to see here.
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 94L a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next seven days, and frankly this feels a little generous. Most of the major models that we look at no longer develop 94L into a tropical system (a few still do). In any case, this is something for the Caribbean islands and possibly the Bahamas to continue to watch, but our overall concerns for significant impacts from 94L remain fairly low. If our thinking on this changes, we'll of course provide a timely update.
Caribbean Sea blob
The National Hurricane Center has also begun highlighting an area that Matt has been talking about for awhile in the western Caribbean Sea. This mass of showers and thunderstorms is not particularly organized, nor do I think it probably will become a depression or named storm. However, this part of the Caribbean Sea remains very warm, so there is at least the potential for something.
10-day rainfall forecast for Central America
Regardless of development, however, this system could prove a rainmaker for southern Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras over the next week or 10 days. Depending on whether the heaviest rains remain offshore or push further inland, rainfall from this tropical blob could potentially lead to some mudslides in the region.
Elsewhere
As we get deeper into October, the tropics are starting to wind down. The Atlantic season doesn't officially end until November 30, of course, but at this point we don't see any near-term threats to the United States. That's a good thing as areas hard hit by hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to recover, and start to rebuild.
By Eric Berger on October 16, 2024
Headlines
94L in the Central Atlantic Ocean continues to putter along
Significant development is less likely as the system nears the Caribbean Sea
Parts of Central America could see heavy rainfall over the next week from tropical moisture
Overall there appear to be no threats to the United States over the forecast period
Seven-day tropical outlook as of Wednesday morning.
Invest 94L
We're continuing to track an area of low pressure that is moving across the central Atlantic Ocean. Overall, this system is expected to continue moving more or less westward, or just north of due west, this week. This would put it in the vicinity of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola by this weekend. We can be fairly confident in this general track. What I'm less certain of this morning is whether anything actually develops.
Most of the ensemble members of the GFS model indicate there's not much to see here.
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 94L a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next seven days, and frankly this feels a little generous. Most of the major models that we look at no longer develop 94L into a tropical system (a few still do). In any case, this is something for the Caribbean islands and possibly the Bahamas to continue to watch, but our overall concerns for significant impacts from 94L remain fairly low. If our thinking on this changes, we'll of course provide a timely update.
Caribbean Sea blob
The National Hurricane Center has also begun highlighting an area that Matt has been talking about for awhile in the western Caribbean Sea. This mass of showers and thunderstorms is not particularly organized, nor do I think it probably will become a depression or named storm. However, this part of the Caribbean Sea remains very warm, so there is at least the potential for something.
10-day rainfall forecast for Central America
Regardless of development, however, this system could prove a rainmaker for southern Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras over the next week or 10 days. Depending on whether the heaviest rains remain offshore or push further inland, rainfall from this tropical blob could potentially lead to some mudslides in the region.
Elsewhere
As we get deeper into October, the tropics are starting to wind down. The Atlantic season doesn't officially end until November 30, of course, but at this point we don't see any near-term threats to the United States. That's a good thing as areas hard hit by hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to recover, and start to rebuild.
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tireman4
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We have 95L....
Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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tireman4
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94L
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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The Eyewall
Invest 95L will clear the picture this weekend as a rainmaker in Central America, while Invest 94L dissipates
By Matt Lanza on October 18, 2024
Headlines
Invest 94L just north of the Caribbean islands is going to fall prey to epic amounts of wind shear in the southwest Atlantic this weekend, ending any low-risk development potential.
Invest 95L has a very narrow window through Saturday morning to organize before moving across land in Central America as a rainmaker.
The tropics look fairly quiet heading into next week.
Thanks to Eric for covering me this week while I underwent oral surgery for orthodontia. I'll just say it's about as glamorous as it sounds. Thanks to Methodist Hospital here in Houston for a good procedure and great quality care afterwards.
Let's take a dip into the tropics.
Invest 94L's last gasp
What is left of Invest 94L is moving just north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today. This is a rather robust area of thunderstorms, but it lacks any organization.
Invest 94L is producing widespread thunderstorms mainly north of the islands on Friday afternoon.
Over the next couple days, 94L will continue westward over the next 24 hours or so before it's completely enveloped by significant wind shear that has overtaken the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Wind shear is as high as 90 knots right now across Florida, which is completely inhospitable for tropical development and some of the strongest shear I've seen here this time of year. So, thanks for the memories, Invest 94L and we wish you well.
Invest 95L to dump rain on Central America
Meanwhile, Invest 95L is in a bit of a different situation. This disturbance is located off the coasts of Belize and Honduras this afternoon. It is also showing robust thunderstorm activity.
Invest 95L has a short window to become a depression or low-end named tropical storm before moving inland over Central America tonight.
This one has a much less hostile environment to develop in than Invest 94L to the north does. However, it has a key limiting factor: Time. Invest 95L has about 24 hours or less left over water before it moves inland across Belize and Central America. In that time, it could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm, but no further development would be expected. Still, heavy rainfall is likely in Central America this weekend from Invest 95L that could cause some flooding issues. There is a chance that the remnants of 95L merge with another Pacific disturbance to form a storm next week that rides westward away from Mexico. But beyond this weekend's rainfall, 95L is not a threat to land.
Beyond the Invests
At this point, there is nothing to speak of in the tropics once 94L and 95L exit the picture. That'll give us a few more days of rest here. There are signs that the tropics could get active again heading into November, but it's important to note that as the Northern Hemisphere pattern begins to shift toward winter, the typical behaviors of tropical systems don't always continue. We'll touch more on this next week.
Invest 95L will clear the picture this weekend as a rainmaker in Central America, while Invest 94L dissipates
By Matt Lanza on October 18, 2024
Headlines
Invest 94L just north of the Caribbean islands is going to fall prey to epic amounts of wind shear in the southwest Atlantic this weekend, ending any low-risk development potential.
Invest 95L has a very narrow window through Saturday morning to organize before moving across land in Central America as a rainmaker.
The tropics look fairly quiet heading into next week.
Thanks to Eric for covering me this week while I underwent oral surgery for orthodontia. I'll just say it's about as glamorous as it sounds. Thanks to Methodist Hospital here in Houston for a good procedure and great quality care afterwards.
Let's take a dip into the tropics.
Invest 94L's last gasp
What is left of Invest 94L is moving just north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today. This is a rather robust area of thunderstorms, but it lacks any organization.
Invest 94L is producing widespread thunderstorms mainly north of the islands on Friday afternoon.
Over the next couple days, 94L will continue westward over the next 24 hours or so before it's completely enveloped by significant wind shear that has overtaken the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Wind shear is as high as 90 knots right now across Florida, which is completely inhospitable for tropical development and some of the strongest shear I've seen here this time of year. So, thanks for the memories, Invest 94L and we wish you well.
Invest 95L to dump rain on Central America
Meanwhile, Invest 95L is in a bit of a different situation. This disturbance is located off the coasts of Belize and Honduras this afternoon. It is also showing robust thunderstorm activity.
Invest 95L has a short window to become a depression or low-end named tropical storm before moving inland over Central America tonight.
This one has a much less hostile environment to develop in than Invest 94L to the north does. However, it has a key limiting factor: Time. Invest 95L has about 24 hours or less left over water before it moves inland across Belize and Central America. In that time, it could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm, but no further development would be expected. Still, heavy rainfall is likely in Central America this weekend from Invest 95L that could cause some flooding issues. There is a chance that the remnants of 95L merge with another Pacific disturbance to form a storm next week that rides westward away from Mexico. But beyond this weekend's rainfall, 95L is not a threat to land.
Beyond the Invests
At this point, there is nothing to speak of in the tropics once 94L and 95L exit the picture. That'll give us a few more days of rest here. There are signs that the tropics could get active again heading into November, but it's important to note that as the Northern Hemisphere pattern begins to shift toward winter, the typical behaviors of tropical systems don't always continue. We'll touch more on this next week.
We have Hurricane Oscar.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1154.shtml
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1154.shtml
Code: Select all
000
WTNT31 KNHC 201154
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 73.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area
later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
west-southwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar
will move away from Great Inagua later this morning before making
landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon
or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba
tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across
the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds as recently reported by Air Force
Reconnaissance data remains near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as
a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after
landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves
north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on
Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).
The minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde data is
986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua
Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday.
RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 6 inches.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the
southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between
2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft
above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba
in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Nadine formed on Saturday. It is now a remnant low.
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tireman4
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TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba
overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown
a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep
convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island.
A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern
and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner
core organization over the past several hours, the initial
wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for
this advisory.
Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that
the center is located just north of that location. The initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm
should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead
of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some
of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may
re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than
the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous
terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over
eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of
Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas
and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72
hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will
become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing
non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the
southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again
faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.
Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern
Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical
cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by
a non-tropical area of low pressure.
The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Cuba.
Key Messages:
1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba
overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown
a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep
convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island.
A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern
and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner
core organization over the past several hours, the initial
wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for
this advisory.
Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that
the center is located just north of that location. The initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm
should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead
of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some
of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may
re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than
the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous
terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over
eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of
Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas
and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72
hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will
become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing
non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the
southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again
faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.
Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern
Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical
cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by
a non-tropical area of low pressure.
The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Cuba.
Key Messages:
1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
$$
Forecaster Brown
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Headlines
Tropical Storm Oscar will continue to dump heavy rain on parts of Cuba and the Bahamas as it exits out to sea this week.
We take a look at why we wrote Invest 94L off on Friday before it became Oscar, and in our Monday morning quarterbacking, we look at hints we could have missed.
Conditions may become favorable for further tropical development next week in the western Caribbean; we discuss who is usually still on the hook in early November.
Tropical Storm Oscar's route to surprising us
Oscar is still lashing parts of the southwest Atlantic with heavy rain and gusty winds today. According to Michael Lowry, Oscar was indeed the smallest known Atlantic hurricane on record. He also accurately described Oscar's development pathway as "nightmare fuel" for forecasters, and this forecaster could not agree more. Oscar went from nothingness to probably a category 2 or even 3 microstorm over the course of hours. This has happened in the Pacific as recently as this past summer with Hurricane John. To a lesser extent, we saw Otis last season defy forecasts and go ballistic to a category 5 storm. But every so often these storms serve as a reminder that modeling is imperfect, very imperfect.
Friday morning's GFS model failed to capture much development risk for Oscar as it came toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and Cuba.
The European model from Friday morning offered a somewhat more realistic outcome, but even it did not look foreboding at the time and probably justified somewhere between a 10 and 30 percent chance of tropical development.
The European model was more aggressive but it even fell well short of what actually happened, though doing a much better job than the GFS in reality.
Still, a minimum pressure of around 986 mb was reported over the weekend from Oscar, well under the minimum of about 1003 mb shown here on the Euro. Somewhat surprisingly, the European AI model did fairly well here, or at least was somewhat similar in nature to the Euro shown above. The ICON model did not do well, which marks one of its worst forecasts of the season.
I am somewhat intrigued by the European performance though. Small storms are tough to forecast, and we've noted in the past that model resolution has a lot to do with this. You simply cannot capture a hurricane that is basically the size of a typical thunderstorm complex. However, there remains something of an "art" to forecasting where one can paintbrush in some accents to improve on an otherwise finished canvas. This is a situation where looking at the Euro probably would give most of us some pause at least for writing something off. Perhaps that's something I should have noticed more back on Friday. There are whispers of 2007's Hurricane Humberto in cases like this. I think it just goes to show you never to take anything for granted in the tropics. You're constantly humbled in this world.
Oscar is a much weaker tropical storm right now, and it is expected to head out to sea as such over the next day or two.
Anyway, Oscar will turn back away from Cuba and head out to sea over the next day or so. But it will dump extensive rainfall over Cuba and the southeast Bahamas.
Additional rains in excess of 12 inches (300 mm) are possible over Cuba, with upwards of 6 inches (150 mm) in parts of the Bahamas as Oscar exits.
Rains in excess of a foot (300 mm) are possible for small portions of southeast Cuba and up to 150 mm in the southeast Bahamas.
Beyond Oscar: Quiet, then what?
No additional tropical development is expected across the Atlantic for the rest of this week. Typically, we would begin talking about the season shutting down around now. While November storms do happen at times, they tend to be infrequent, and on an ACE basis, hurricane season is now 90 percent over. And after this week it will be about 93 percent over. But that said, the background state of the Atlantic appears as if it is going to get more favorable for development again just as we head toward November. Where would you expect storms to form in November?
Early November climatology favors the western Caribbean and open Atlantic.
Typically, you'd look in the open Atlantic north and east of the Caribbean or in the Caribbean, just east of Central America. The latter area is the one to watch heading into November, as numerous ensemble members are beginning to pick up on activity there. Where it goes is TBD, but the water in that area remains very, very warm, which could more than support a significant storm for portions of the western Caribbean, perhaps including Central America. These storms typically get brushed off to the north and east relatively quickly by wind shear and cold fronts, so the western Gulf is probably off the hook. The eastern Gulf should still keep an eye on things, but the Caribbean should definitely keep tabs on anything that tries to develop next week. For now it's just speculation and model hints. We'll keep you posted as things clear up some closer in.
Headlines
Tropical Storm Oscar will continue to dump heavy rain on parts of Cuba and the Bahamas as it exits out to sea this week.
We take a look at why we wrote Invest 94L off on Friday before it became Oscar, and in our Monday morning quarterbacking, we look at hints we could have missed.
Conditions may become favorable for further tropical development next week in the western Caribbean; we discuss who is usually still on the hook in early November.
Tropical Storm Oscar's route to surprising us
Oscar is still lashing parts of the southwest Atlantic with heavy rain and gusty winds today. According to Michael Lowry, Oscar was indeed the smallest known Atlantic hurricane on record. He also accurately described Oscar's development pathway as "nightmare fuel" for forecasters, and this forecaster could not agree more. Oscar went from nothingness to probably a category 2 or even 3 microstorm over the course of hours. This has happened in the Pacific as recently as this past summer with Hurricane John. To a lesser extent, we saw Otis last season defy forecasts and go ballistic to a category 5 storm. But every so often these storms serve as a reminder that modeling is imperfect, very imperfect.
Friday morning's GFS model failed to capture much development risk for Oscar as it came toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and Cuba.
The European model from Friday morning offered a somewhat more realistic outcome, but even it did not look foreboding at the time and probably justified somewhere between a 10 and 30 percent chance of tropical development.
The European model was more aggressive but it even fell well short of what actually happened, though doing a much better job than the GFS in reality.
Still, a minimum pressure of around 986 mb was reported over the weekend from Oscar, well under the minimum of about 1003 mb shown here on the Euro. Somewhat surprisingly, the European AI model did fairly well here, or at least was somewhat similar in nature to the Euro shown above. The ICON model did not do well, which marks one of its worst forecasts of the season.
I am somewhat intrigued by the European performance though. Small storms are tough to forecast, and we've noted in the past that model resolution has a lot to do with this. You simply cannot capture a hurricane that is basically the size of a typical thunderstorm complex. However, there remains something of an "art" to forecasting where one can paintbrush in some accents to improve on an otherwise finished canvas. This is a situation where looking at the Euro probably would give most of us some pause at least for writing something off. Perhaps that's something I should have noticed more back on Friday. There are whispers of 2007's Hurricane Humberto in cases like this. I think it just goes to show you never to take anything for granted in the tropics. You're constantly humbled in this world.
Oscar is a much weaker tropical storm right now, and it is expected to head out to sea as such over the next day or two.
Anyway, Oscar will turn back away from Cuba and head out to sea over the next day or so. But it will dump extensive rainfall over Cuba and the southeast Bahamas.
Additional rains in excess of 12 inches (300 mm) are possible over Cuba, with upwards of 6 inches (150 mm) in parts of the Bahamas as Oscar exits.
Rains in excess of a foot (300 mm) are possible for small portions of southeast Cuba and up to 150 mm in the southeast Bahamas.
Beyond Oscar: Quiet, then what?
No additional tropical development is expected across the Atlantic for the rest of this week. Typically, we would begin talking about the season shutting down around now. While November storms do happen at times, they tend to be infrequent, and on an ACE basis, hurricane season is now 90 percent over. And after this week it will be about 93 percent over. But that said, the background state of the Atlantic appears as if it is going to get more favorable for development again just as we head toward November. Where would you expect storms to form in November?
Early November climatology favors the western Caribbean and open Atlantic.
Typically, you'd look in the open Atlantic north and east of the Caribbean or in the Caribbean, just east of Central America. The latter area is the one to watch heading into November, as numerous ensemble members are beginning to pick up on activity there. Where it goes is TBD, but the water in that area remains very, very warm, which could more than support a significant storm for portions of the western Caribbean, perhaps including Central America. These storms typically get brushed off to the north and east relatively quickly by wind shear and cold fronts, so the western Gulf is probably off the hook. The eastern Gulf should still keep an eye on things, but the Caribbean should definitely keep tabs on anything that tries to develop next week. For now it's just speculation and model hints. We'll keep you posted as things clear up some closer in.
I expect some surprises in November.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024
The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this
morning. The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as
-75 to -80 deg C. GOES-West derived motion winds indicate good
upper-level outflow, particularly over the southern and western
portions of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications were
a consensus T5.5/102-kt from TAFB and SAB at 12 UTC. Satellite
trends suggest Kristy has kept strengthening since that time, and
the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, following the rising
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.
The hurricane is moving quickly westward (265/17 kt) while being
steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. This quick
westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 h. Then, an
upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast
of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the
ridge. As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the
west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend. A
westward motion is shown by day 5, as it is anticipated that Kristy
will become highly sheared and decoupled, with the vertically
shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge. No significant
changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast.
Kristy is a relatively small hurricane that remains susceptible to
rapid intensity fluctuations in a weak shear environment over warm
SSTs. The latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS output shows a 50 to 60 percent
chance of a 20-kt increase during the next 12 h, and the satellite
trends suggest continued near-term strengthening is likely. The
updated NHC forecast reflects these signals and lies above the
intensity guidance in the near term, showing Kristy peaking as a
category 4 hurricane on Thursday. By Friday, the aforementioned
trough is expected to impart increased shear on the hurricane, which
should induce weakening through the rest of the 5-day forecast
period. With SHIPS-diagnosed shear values of 40-50 kt by the
weekend, Kristy is forecast to quickly weaken over the weekend and
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024
The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this
morning. The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as
-75 to -80 deg C. GOES-West derived motion winds indicate good
upper-level outflow, particularly over the southern and western
portions of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications were
a consensus T5.5/102-kt from TAFB and SAB at 12 UTC. Satellite
trends suggest Kristy has kept strengthening since that time, and
the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, following the rising
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.
The hurricane is moving quickly westward (265/17 kt) while being
steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. This quick
westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 h. Then, an
upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast
of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the
ridge. As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the
west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend. A
westward motion is shown by day 5, as it is anticipated that Kristy
will become highly sheared and decoupled, with the vertically
shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge. No significant
changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast.
Kristy is a relatively small hurricane that remains susceptible to
rapid intensity fluctuations in a weak shear environment over warm
SSTs. The latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS output shows a 50 to 60 percent
chance of a 20-kt increase during the next 12 h, and the satellite
trends suggest continued near-term strengthening is likely. The
updated NHC forecast reflects these signals and lies above the
intensity guidance in the near term, showing Kristy peaking as a
category 4 hurricane on Thursday. By Friday, the aforementioned
trough is expected to impart increased shear on the hurricane, which
should induce weakening through the rest of the 5-day forecast
period. With SHIPS-diagnosed shear values of 40-50 kt by the
weekend, Kristy is forecast to quickly weaken over the weekend and
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
Calmer seas take us into the end of October in the Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on October 23, 2024
Headlines
No tropical activity is expected over the next week in the Atlantic.
The first days of November remain likely to be our next window for possible development in the western Caribbean, but details are sketchy.
Quiet for now
As we begin to slowly hit the final weeks of hurricane season, things are behaving relatively normally right now. We don't have any activity expected over the next week, and that should get us to the end of October with Oscar as the last used name on the list.
Caribbean noise remains
Modeling does continue to perk up the western Caribbean beginning later next week and into the early days of November, however. A sloppy plate of spaghetti exists on the GFS ensemble through the end of its run today, with numerous ensemble members trying to develop something in that region and either keep it buried there or lift it north-northeast toward Jamaica, Cuba, or Hispaniola.
Model noise continues to open November in the Caribbean. For now, it does not appear to be U.S. bound, but interests in the western Caribbean should monitor upcoming forecasts.
Now, the GFS model as shown above does have a tendency to get a bit overeager on the tails of hurricane season about development in the Caribbean. A bigger surprise would be if the model showed nothing here. That being said, this has some legs via broad background support for development over the western half of the basin, as well as some other less-robust but nevertheless present model support from the European model. I've written a lot and been quoted a good bit in other media publications about the increasing AI model usefulness we've seen this year. For what it's worth, the AIFS too shows this kind of broad outcome right now, but it is being quite aggressive in pushing a cold front into the Gulf of Mexico around this time which is likely kicking this northeast and out to sea quickly. It's more aggressive than the GFS and Euro with the front, so that will be something to monitor.
For now, we'll keep babysitting and come back at you with more on Friday.
Calmer seas take us into the end of October in the Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on October 23, 2024
Headlines
No tropical activity is expected over the next week in the Atlantic.
The first days of November remain likely to be our next window for possible development in the western Caribbean, but details are sketchy.
Quiet for now
As we begin to slowly hit the final weeks of hurricane season, things are behaving relatively normally right now. We don't have any activity expected over the next week, and that should get us to the end of October with Oscar as the last used name on the list.
Caribbean noise remains
Modeling does continue to perk up the western Caribbean beginning later next week and into the early days of November, however. A sloppy plate of spaghetti exists on the GFS ensemble through the end of its run today, with numerous ensemble members trying to develop something in that region and either keep it buried there or lift it north-northeast toward Jamaica, Cuba, or Hispaniola.
Model noise continues to open November in the Caribbean. For now, it does not appear to be U.S. bound, but interests in the western Caribbean should monitor upcoming forecasts.
Now, the GFS model as shown above does have a tendency to get a bit overeager on the tails of hurricane season about development in the Caribbean. A bigger surprise would be if the model showed nothing here. That being said, this has some legs via broad background support for development over the western half of the basin, as well as some other less-robust but nevertheless present model support from the European model. I've written a lot and been quoted a good bit in other media publications about the increasing AI model usefulness we've seen this year. For what it's worth, the AIFS too shows this kind of broad outcome right now, but it is being quite aggressive in pushing a cold front into the Gulf of Mexico around this time which is likely kicking this northeast and out to sea quickly. It's more aggressive than the GFS and Euro with the front, so that will be something to monitor.
For now, we'll keep babysitting and come back at you with more on Friday.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll
on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become
cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective
pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap
within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass
depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and
subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this
morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these
estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.
Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion
of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to
north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the
southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific.
Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a
remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn
toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC
forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge
northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids.
The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming
increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to
rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated
through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts
that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this
weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating
into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows
these model trends.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll
on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become
cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective
pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap
within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass
depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and
subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this
morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these
estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.
Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion
of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to
north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the
southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific.
Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a
remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn
toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC
forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge
northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids.
The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming
increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to
rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated
through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts
that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this
weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating
into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows
these model trends.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
Caribbean development remains possible late next week, but don’t fall for GFS “scareicane” season
By Matt Lanza on October 25, 2024
Headlines
Model "scareicane" season is in full force, with several unlikely GFS model outcomes showing up at times lately, a common late season bias of that model.
But, tropical development is looking more and more possible in the western or central Caribbean late next week or weekend.
Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: Red and Black Banter!
Caribbean outlook
We continue to see at least hints of tropical development in the Caribbean in the next 8 to 10 days or so. This particular system caused a bit of a kerfuffle earlier this week when the GFS operational model, notoriously poor for handling tropical systems in the extended range showed a hurricane hitting the Florida Panhandle. Like a moth to a flame, the usual suspects on social media seeking engagement bait shared it with the masses under the veneer of either informing people of a low-probability outcome or just saying "wow."
In reality, if you look at the last 10 GFS model runs, you can probably pick a point somewhere between the eastern Gulf and eastern Caribbean and it has been impacted by a modeled (read: not actual) storm. Again, the GFS has a notorious bias toward overdevelopment, particularly in the Gulf during the front and back ends of hurricane season. So it would be important to note that the likelihood of any given scenario is quite low.
In reality, here's what we do know. We do know that the models are showing strong signals for development in the western or even central Caribbean now around next weekend.
The European ensemble model's 50 members suggest some tropical development is a possibility in the western or central Caribbean.
The GFS ensemble's 30 members also show this outcome potential.
Lower pressures show up on the GFS ensemble anywhere from Cuba through the central Caribbean next Friday.
So both major model ensembles have a signal now. They're both generally in the western or even central Caribbean with said signal as well. That's really all we have to go on at this point.
Reading between the lines on various other data, there is support for a developing system in the same are from European AI modeling as well. That said, the overall setup is one that probably supports a system meandering within the Caribbean for a few days and then lifting north and northeastward into the Bahamas or Atlantic from this area. There's a tremendous amount of wind shear in the Gulf, and I would not expect anything to make it there at this point in time. That said, we will continue to monitor the development risks and how they evolve over the weekend. We'll check back in on Monday with the latest.
Caribbean development remains possible late next week, but don’t fall for GFS “scareicane” season
By Matt Lanza on October 25, 2024
Headlines
Model "scareicane" season is in full force, with several unlikely GFS model outcomes showing up at times lately, a common late season bias of that model.
But, tropical development is looking more and more possible in the western or central Caribbean late next week or weekend.
Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: Red and Black Banter!
Caribbean outlook
We continue to see at least hints of tropical development in the Caribbean in the next 8 to 10 days or so. This particular system caused a bit of a kerfuffle earlier this week when the GFS operational model, notoriously poor for handling tropical systems in the extended range showed a hurricane hitting the Florida Panhandle. Like a moth to a flame, the usual suspects on social media seeking engagement bait shared it with the masses under the veneer of either informing people of a low-probability outcome or just saying "wow."
In reality, if you look at the last 10 GFS model runs, you can probably pick a point somewhere between the eastern Gulf and eastern Caribbean and it has been impacted by a modeled (read: not actual) storm. Again, the GFS has a notorious bias toward overdevelopment, particularly in the Gulf during the front and back ends of hurricane season. So it would be important to note that the likelihood of any given scenario is quite low.
In reality, here's what we do know. We do know that the models are showing strong signals for development in the western or even central Caribbean now around next weekend.
The European ensemble model's 50 members suggest some tropical development is a possibility in the western or central Caribbean.
The GFS ensemble's 30 members also show this outcome potential.
Lower pressures show up on the GFS ensemble anywhere from Cuba through the central Caribbean next Friday.
So both major model ensembles have a signal now. They're both generally in the western or even central Caribbean with said signal as well. That's really all we have to go on at this point.
Reading between the lines on various other data, there is support for a developing system in the same are from European AI modeling as well. That said, the overall setup is one that probably supports a system meandering within the Caribbean for a few days and then lifting north and northeastward into the Bahamas or Atlantic from this area. There's a tremendous amount of wind shear in the Gulf, and I would not expect anything to make it there at this point in time. That said, we will continue to monitor the development risks and how they evolve over the weekend. We'll check back in on Monday with the latest.
Next.
Year.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Hurricane season is over, heres to hoping future hurricane seasons are dead as can be!
It was a pretty big bust in all honesty.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:49 pm Hurricane season is over, heres to hoping future hurricane seasons are dead as can be!