October 2024

[brazoriatx]

And its temperature swings like that, that make me wish i was living anywhere but texas, its getting tiring with dealing with heat, humidity and mosquitoes,

Weren't you the one that said we were done with the 90s lol

[Stratton20]

Im gonna vent for a second, and this isnt toward anyone, but rather this pattern and the lack of rainfall and incredibly if not record breaking prolonged period of warm temperatures we are stuck in

We might as well get rid of the term Fall around here and replace it with Summer 2.0 , because we certainly havent had a normal fall in a long time, Summer always extends into october ( not counting the front from last night) when the whole state hasnt seen any appreciable rain in well over a month, the added 90+ temperatures just make things even worse, with several areas across the state setting record highs of above 100 degrees , that should not be happening in october , La Nina’s suck, and this one is no different, vent over

[Cpv17]

Enjoy the nice weather while you can....we will likely be hovering around 90 by early next week.

Yeppers, and well above temps look to extend into late October. This might be our biggest cooldown of the month unless we get another front near Halloween.

[Ptarmigan]

We could use rain for sure.

[Cpv17]

We could use rain for sure.

Tomorrow’s release of the drought monitor should be interesting.

[don]

Keep in mind folks its not just Texas dealing with this pattern. Most of the country is dry or in a drought.At least up here though in NW Texas Fall does seem to have arrived as temps look to be around seasonal average to slightly above average for the foreseeable future.I just would like some rain though.

Screenshot 2024-10-17 at 09-15-10 Current Map U.S. Drought Monitor.png

[Pas_Bon]

We could use rain for sure.

"Rain"? Never heard of her.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately November is looking just as dry as october, i honestly dont even think we will see any appreciable rain again until el nino returns, we are in it for the long haul and boy its going to suck for a long time

[txbear]

Just a random thought for the more knowledgeable.

Is some of this much maligned weather a result of pattern buckling, or what have you, due to hurricane Francine? Recall that wonderful first part of September that has since gone down the toilet once Francine came ashore.

[don]

Just a random thought for the more knowledgeable.

Is some of this much maligned weather a result of pattern buckling, or what have you, due to hurricane Francine? Recall that wonderful first part of September that has since gone down the toilet once Francine came ashore.

It's blocking, and not due to a hurricane. We sometimes need to look at the bigger picture and beyond the state to get a grasp of whats going on, it's not just a local or regional drought.A majority of the country has been dry and hot.

[Stratton20]

Its going to take a recurving strong pacific typoon in the pacific to really dislodge and shake up the upper air pattern over NA , otherwise prospects for rain are dead through at least the end of october

[don]

It does appear that the next strong front may be here right around Halloween.But it may be a dry frontal passage.Hopefully we can get some rain from it. "crosses fingers"

[txbear]

Just a random thought for the more knowledgeable.

Is some of this much maligned weather a result of pattern buckling, or what have you, due to hurricane Francine? Recall that wonderful first part of September that has since gone down the toilet once Francine came ashore.

It's blocking, and not due to a hurricane. We sometimes need to look at the bigger picture and beyond the state to get a grasp of whats going on, it's not just a local or regional drought.A majority of the country has been dry and hot.

Appreciate the reply don. I’m not well versed in upper-air patterns. The drought monitor map certainly paints a crappy picture.

Going to be rough with zonal flow.

[Cpv17]

Y’all think it’s bad now, we haven’t seen anything yet.

[tireman4]

960
FXUS64 KHGX 181052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Warm weather slowly makes it`s return to SE Texas as ridging
remains in place over the East/Central CONUS. Broad surface high
pressure over the Southeast CONUS should keep east/southeasterly
flow in place over the next several days, funneling warm, humid
gulf air into the area. This is reflected in rising thicknesses
and 850mb temperatures across the area, with highs climbing into
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Rising dewpoints and overnight cloud
cover should bring lows in the 50s/mid 60s inland and upper
60s/lower 70s along the coast. PWs of 1.5" could bring isolated
showers/storms over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as weak
impulses pushes from east to west. Strong capping overhead should
largely suppress rain chances, especially further inland.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

After a couple of pleasant days with cool weather and low
humidity, a warming trend with an increase in humidity return to
the region. Return flow from the departing surface high to our
northeast and building mid-upper level ridge across the Southern
Plains will result in a warmer and more humid airmass during the
long term. With this pattern in place, near seasonal temperatures
can be expected with highs in the 80s (in the 90s after mid-
week). Nights will remain mild with lows in the 50s and 60s.

A cut-off low will eject northeast from the Desert SW/Southern
Rockies early next week. Trends, on the other hand, keep the low
north of the ridge and away from us, resulting in little to no
impacts. Overall, dry weather continues over the next seven days
with a warming trend and a slight uptick in moisture, leading to
near seasonal temperatures and dewpoints mainly in the 60s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Light NE/ENE wind early today will increase and shift SE/ESE this
afternoon. Winds relax later this evening, and shift NE/ENE
overnight into Saturday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Surface high pressure centered across the central/eastern CONUS
will continue to bring east to southeast flow across the
northwestern Gulf. Onshore winds and seas will gradually
strengthen/build today, likely reaching Advisory levels this
evening. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
later today and will likely persist into the weekend.

Hazardous beach conditions also continue with a risk of strong
rip currents and minor coastal flooding, especially during times
of high tide. All area beaches will potentially be impacted by
minor coastal flooding, particularly along Highway 87 on the
Bolivar Peninsula. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Rip Current
Risk are now in effect until Saturday morning.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 79 70 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Saturday morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[djmike]

Hopefully not 2011 all over again. I have not had rain since Beryl in June. Grass is crispy and brown and now cracks in dirt starting. You do know the infamous way first rains return to SETX is by deluge and flooding always seems to be the way. Never just a gradual return. Lol. Ill take it at this point.

[Stratton20]

The newest 6-10 8-14 and 3/4 week outlooks from noaa today are completely Vile, just absolutely disgusting , no end to the miserably dry weather pattern in sight, dare I say we may not see any appreciable rain through next summer, its going to get really ugly, cant sugar coat that

[Cpv17]

Hopefully not 2011 all over again. I have not had rain since Beryl in June. Grass is crispy and brown and now cracks in dirt starting. You do know the infamous way first rains return to SETX is by deluge and flooding always seems to be the way. Never just a gradual return. Lol. Ill take it at this point.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re entering a 2011 type of drought.

[don]

While i do expect a overall warm winter.I think there may be one or two ice storms this year.As the southern plains may end up in the battle zone between the southeast ridge and western trough a couple of times this winter.Which is a classic setup for ice storms in the southern plains.

[jasons2k]

It’s going to go from bad to worse. I think I started posting about summer of 2025 back in April or May of this year. Get ready.