I was just looking at some information. The amount of moisture in Helene was 50% more than would have been expected in a similar system 20-30 years ago. Climate change not only turbocharges hurricanes into major CAT3-5 monsters, but can also dump a lot more rain.
In other words, the Western NC 1000 year flooding event was caused by increased atmospheric CO2 acting like a heat blanket. Meaning 1000 years "biblical" events will and are becoming more and more commonplace.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
Milton is ahead of schedule. Even if the trough in the eastern Gulf weaknes it, the strength should be CAT3 with CAT4/5 momentum like Katrina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtf_qkggi64
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtf_qkggi64
Milton is a very weird name for a hurricane.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5356
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
After this season im really hoping we get a dead season next year, its just insane how bad this one has been and florida is about to get completely devastated again, la nina sucks
Already up to Cat 4. Way ahead of schedule.
Looks like 2024 is trying hard to make up for the unexpected lull in July/August/most of September.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
074
WTNT34 KNHC 071453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward
to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed
by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by Wednesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is
forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a
large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
WTNT34 KNHC 071453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward
to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed
by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by Wednesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is
forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a
large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
It's heading in such a weird direction towards the Yucatan right now that the SE flank is the bad side for surge.
It still has the loop current in front of it too, so its got all the fuel it needs.
It still has the loop current in front of it too, so its got all the fuel it needs.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
..MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
10:55 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.6°W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph
I have a bad, bad feeling about this storm
10:55 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.6°W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph
I have a bad, bad feeling about this storm
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
It is a 5 now and you are right, it is really a beast...
The NHC just posted this 10 minutes ago..
National Hurricane Center
@NWSNHC
...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5. The max sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph with higher gusts
The NHC just posted this 10 minutes ago..
National Hurricane Center
@NWSNHC
...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5. The max sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph with higher gusts
Yeah, Helene and Milton are Exhibits A and B on climate change.
The eyewall is beasting all the way around the circumference. I'm feeling a 180 mph peak. Milton's turbocharged strength will take it on the more northern path. Potentially a 10-12+ ft storm surge in Tampa Bay.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
#Milton is the 2nd Category 5 #hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, along with Beryl. Since 1950, 5 other years have had 2+ Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes:
1961: Esther, Hattie
2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2007: Dean, Felix
2017: Irma, Maria
2019: Dorian, Lorenzo
@philklotzbach
#Milton is the 2nd Category 5 #hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, along with Beryl. Since 1950, 5 other years have had 2+ Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes:
1961: Esther, Hattie
2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2007: Dean, Felix
2017: Irma, Maria
2019: Dorian, Lorenzo
173 mph
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
268
WTNT34 KNHC 071735
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east
near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially
catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and
Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
WTNT34 KNHC 071735
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east
near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially
catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and
Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
175 mph
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Logan Giles
@LoganGilesWx
Only seven hurricanes have gone from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Milton is now the second fastest to do so
Wilma: 12 hours
Maria: 18 hours
Milton: 18 hours
Felix: 24 hours
Dean: 24 hours
Andrew: 24 hours
Anita: 24 hours
@LoganGilesWx
Only seven hurricanes have gone from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Milton is now the second fastest to do so
Wilma: 12 hours
Maria: 18 hours
Milton: 18 hours
Felix: 24 hours
Dean: 24 hours
Andrew: 24 hours
Anita: 24 hours
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Wxman57s thoughts
I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.
I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.