October 2024

[don]

The weather here has some large temp swings. We've been having daily highs in the low to mid 90's during the daytime.But overnight/early morning the temps have been dropping into the upper 50's.

[DoctorMu]

The weather here has some large temp swings. We've been having daily highs in the low to mid 90's during the daytime.But overnight/early morning the temps have been dropping into the upper 50's.

DP of 70°F here. Drier air should filter in in a couple of days.

[DoctorMu]

Kind of weird seeing where Milton is forming and then seeing all the models saying Florida instead of Texas/Louisiana.

Milton is going to ride an old front and hit as a CAT4 around Sarasota. Looks like an I-4 storm.

[DoctorMu]

Kind of weird seeing where Milton is forming and then seeing all the models saying Florida instead of Texas/Louisiana.

That's actually a common direction storms take in the gulf in the month of October (even when they develop in the western gulf). Due to the westerlies storms move northeast towards the eastern gulf.That's why its very hard to get a storm to hit Texas this time of year.

We have a much better chance at rain from EPAC TS moisture.

[Stratton20]

I have a better chance of becoming the next president than we do seeing any rain the next few weeks, just miserable

[djmike]

Interesting on Hurricane Kirk in Mid Atlantic. Never seen a track that actually makes it to Europe France/Germany. As of right now London and Paris could be seeing a tropical storm around Wednesday. Thats gotta be rare.

[Stratton20]

Latest CPC outlook is about as ugly as it gets, terrible

[DoctorMu]

While Yucktober largely continues unabated, ironically NE breeze advection courtesy of Milton and Don's vibes have lowered the DP to about 60°F.

Doesn't feel as bad vs. this morning...although were still at 92°F.

Despite more Texarrakis weather I bought 2 bags of fungicide in preparation for Brown Patch season which starts about...NOW. lol

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 31.67,2563

[DoctorMu]

Interesting on Hurricane Kirk in Mid Atlantic. Never seen a track that actually makes it to Europe France/Germany. As of right now London and Paris could be seeing a tropical storm around Wednesday. Thats gotta be rare.

Feeder bands on stun. Kirk out.

[Cromagnum]

Milton up to Cat 4 now...

[Pas_Bon]

Milton up to Cat 4 now...

Jesus.....

[txbear]

The weather here has some large temp swings. We've been having daily highs in the low to mid 90's during the daytime.But overnight/early morning the temps have been dropping into the upper 50's.

Ah the dry air of the lands west of 35 or 281 depending on personal takes of delineation (also much less urban heat islands). At some point the mesquites will start dropping their leaves…maybe.

We’re getting the SE TX version of that, but really yearning for truly lower daytime temps and water from the blue yonder.

[tireman4]

172
FXUS64 KHGX 071105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Dry quiet weather will prevail across SE TX the next couple of days,
with the main difference with today and tomorrow being cooler temper-
atures. A building upper ridge over the western CONUS along with the
approach of a backdoor cold front will make for favorable conditions
for another warm/hot day today. While the record highs for today are
not quite as "soft" as those from yesterday, they are some reachable
ones should the forecast verify (see below). Otherwise, we are still
on track for the passage of a cold front (from the NE) overnight to-
night. This cooler/drier air mass should usher in the return of fall
(perhaps even actual fall if you will) on Tues. No POPs are expected
through the period.

Highs this afternoon will range from the lower to mid 90s across the
CWA...upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast. Ahead of this front, lows
tonight will run from the mid to upper 60s...lower 70s over portions
of the metro and coast. Post-FROPA on Tues, along with a steady mod-
erate NE flow, highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. But,
we`ll likely feel the most impacts tomorrow night with lows from the
mid and upper 50s across the northern half of the CWA...around 60 to
the lower 60s across the southern half..and then in the mid to upper
60s at the coast. 41

Record Highs
Today (10/7)
CLL 97/1922
IAH 95/1956
HOU 95/1956
GLS 91/2019
PSX 94/1956

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Following the passage of the frontal boundary on Tuesday, we will
enter into a mild, dry, and ultimately very uneventful period of
weather that will prevail through the remainder of the week and
into the weekend. A broad area of high pressure centered well to
the northeast of the area, along with the presence of what is now
Hurricane Milton in the Eastern Gulf, will help to maintain a
light/moderate northeast surface flow. While temperatures are
unlikely to dip much below seasonal normals, a substantial drop
off in humidity is expected with surface dew points staying
mainly in the 40s on Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s can be expected inland with values in the
lower 80s near the coast. Overnight lows will generally remain in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The eastward track of the aforementioned surface high will allow
for the gradual redevelopment of a east to southeast wind heading
into the weekend. This will in turn promote a slight increase in
low level moisture, with surface dew points rising into the
mid/upper 50s inland and the lower 60s along the immediate coast.
A slight uptick in overnight lows will accompany this shift,
though nearly all locations should still remain in the 60s through
the weekend.

Given a lack of instability, lower moisture, and little to no
upper-level support for convection, there is currently no
rainfall across the entire area in the forecast through at least
the weekend.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

VFR. Light/variable winds this morning becoming mostly NE 7-12kts by
this afternoon. We could see a brief wind shift near the coast later
today (via the seabreeze). Otherwise, a cold front will be moving in
from the NE overnight but the best push of cooler/drier air is like-
ly going to hold off until mid Tues morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Moderate east to northeast winds will prevail through tomorrow.
With wind speeds approaching 20 knots offshore, a Small Craft
Advisory has once again been issued with cautions remaining in
effect for the nearshore zones. A surface cold front will move
into the area on Tuesday, resulting in light to moderate offshore
winds through the later part of the week. Heading into the
weekend, a light onshore flow pattern will gradually begin to
return. No rainfall is in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 65 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 69 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 74 86 70 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, I'm officially starting the pursuit of my meteorology degree with Mississippi State University. Possibly Spring 2025, Likely Fall 2025.
Waiting to see which credits will transfer (if any) from my Bachelor's Degree (Microbiology) from LSU and my Doctorate Degree.
I was an O-3 in the US Army, so my GI Bill will be used.
I'm a dentist now, and will remain so, but this has always been a life-long dream.

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon congratulations, and good luck to you!

[Cpv17]

Guys and gals, I'm officially starting the pursuit of my meteorology degree with Mississippi State University. Possibly Spring 2025, Likely Fall 2025.
Waiting to see which credits will transfer (if any) from my Bachelor's Degree (Microbiology) from LSU and my Doctorate Degree.
I was an O-3 in the US Army, so my GI Bill will be used.
I'm a dentist now, and will remain so, but this has always been a life-long dream.

Awesome!

[DoctorMu]

The weather here has some large temp swings. We've been having daily highs in the low to mid 90's during the daytime.But overnight/early morning the temps have been dropping into the upper 50's.

Ah the dry air of the lands west of 35 or 281 depending on personal takes of delineation (also much less urban heat islands). At some point the mesquites will start dropping their leaves…maybe.

We’re getting the SE TX version of that, but really yearning for truly lower daytime temps and water from the blue yonder.

No GOM nearby.

Without the GOM the Southeast would be a desert until the Appalachians - much like Australia.

[DoctorMu]

Guys and gals, I'm officially starting the pursuit of my meteorology degree with Mississippi State University. Possibly Spring 2025, Likely Fall 2025.
Waiting to see which credits will transfer (if any) from my Bachelor's Degree (Microbiology) from LSU and my Doctorate Degree.
I was an O-3 in the US Army, so my GI Bill will be used.
I'm a dentist now, and will remain so, but this has always been a life-long dream.

Fantastic. Maybe you can fix our SETX weather! lol

[tireman4]

Guys and gals, I'm officially starting the pursuit of my meteorology degree with Mississippi State University. Possibly Spring 2025, Likely Fall 2025.
Waiting to see which credits will transfer (if any) from my Bachelor's Degree (Microbiology) from LSU and my Doctorate Degree.
I was an O-3 in the US Army, so my GI Bill will be used.
I'm a dentist now, and will remain so, but this has always been a life-long dream.

Fantastic. Maybe you can fix our SETX weather! lol

Very cool. I am trying to pay for classes over there for me, as well.

[tireman4]

Quick weather long range update. As we are in a zonal flow, big dips in temperatures are not going to be happening anytime soon. As with the hurricane season being a late bloomer, I think Fall will be as well. You want to look for colder temperatures, you always look for a source region. That source region is to the north of us, of course. The higher the snowpack, the colder the temperatures. I think November will be quite brisk. Here is the building snowpack.