October 2024

[JDsGN]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

Yeah, the models have been remarkably consistent with a big (lows in 50's-ish) cooldown around 10/15-10/16

I just don't see this in the model runs? Been watching all the globals for the past 3 days as Saturday the 19th came into the pictures on a few of the models and i just see miserably hot mid to low 90s and a few spurts of cooler 64-65* nights.

[jasons2k]

Wow, now tomorrow’s forecast is “mostly sunny” with no mention of rain. Just wow. Not even a chance.

[Cromagnum]

Fall cancel.

[tireman4]

Let me throw this log on the fire. A wholly uneducated opinion, but since this hurricane season is a late bloomer, I feel this fall will be too. Remember, the average high is 87 degrees for this day in October. We "normally" do not see precipitable drops in temperatures for highs until October 20th (82F). It has been warmer than usual, but not way out there. The hottest October we have ever had was in 2004, when it was 88 degrees on Halloween. Also, in 2004, we saw the Christmas Eve Snow up and down the Texas coast. So, I say, let us see how this all plays out.

[Cpv17]

Let me throw this log on the fire. A wholly uneducated opinion, but since this hurricane season is a late bloomer, I feel this fall will be too. Remember, the average high is 87 degrees for this day in October. We "normally" do not see precipitable drops in temperatures for highs until October 20th (82F). It has been warmer than usual, but not way out there. The hottest October we have ever had was in 2004, when it was 88 degrees on Halloween. Also, in 2004, we saw the Christmas Eve Snow up and down the Texas coast. So, I say, let us see how this all plays out.

Yeah, I’m not concerned about the temps. They’re fine for me. I’m just concerned about the precipitation. Vegetation starting to get crunchy out there.

[jasons2k]

Let me throw this log on the fire. A wholly uneducated opinion, but since this hurricane season is a late bloomer, I feel this fall will be too. Remember, the average high is 87 degrees for this day in October. We "normally" do not see precipitable drops in temperatures for highs until October 20th (82F). It has been warmer than usual, but not way out there. The hottest October we have ever had was in 2004, when it was 88 degrees on Halloween. Also, in 2004, we saw the Christmas Eve Snow up and down the Texas coast. So, I say, let us see how this all plays out.

Yeah, I’m not concerned about the temps. They’re fine for me. I’m just concerned about the precipitation. Vegetation starting to get crunchy out there.

I’m right there with you. The weather has been great, very pleasant mornings. If we could just get some rain it would be nearly perfect.

[Cpv17]

Let me throw this log on the fire. A wholly uneducated opinion, but since this hurricane season is a late bloomer, I feel this fall will be too. Remember, the average high is 87 degrees for this day in October. We "normally" do not see precipitable drops in temperatures for highs until October 20th (82F). It has been warmer than usual, but not way out there. The hottest October we have ever had was in 2004, when it was 88 degrees on Halloween. Also, in 2004, we saw the Christmas Eve Snow up and down the Texas coast. So, I say, let us see how this all plays out.

Yeah, I’m not concerned about the temps. They’re fine for me. I’m just concerned about the precipitation. Vegetation starting to get crunchy out there.

I’m right there with you. The weather has been great, very pleasant mornings. If we could just get some rain it would be nearly perfect.

Unfortunately the rest of the month looks to be pretty dry.

[tireman4]

128
FXUS64 KHGX 042024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Scattered showers along the coast and offshore, in association
with a coastal trof, will remain possible overnight and into the
weekend. With the trof and moisture axis generally transitioning
further to the southwest and south with time, anticipate that chances
of rain will also follow as time progresses. Most inland locations
probably won`t see much if any precip...and if so, it isn`t expected
to be persistent nor significant enough to ruin the vast majority
of any outdoor plans. Otherwise, more of the same in regards to
temps in the short term period. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Chances of rain will begin to decrease on Sunday as the mid level
low pushes into the southeastern/southern portions of the Gulf of
Mexico and drier air moves over Southeast Texas. Most of the shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain over the Gulf
waters, but can`t rule out a quick passing shower or two along the
coasts, in particular during the morning hours. It will remain warm
Sunday into Monday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
inland and the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast.

Late Monday into early Tuesday, a weak cold front will push across
Southeast Texas. Not expecting much rain associated with the frontal
passage, and high temperatures could be at most 5 degrees cooler by
Wednesday. Dew points, however, will fall into the 40s inland and
50s over the coasts, making the low 90s to upper 80s high
temperatures feel more comfortable for those who plan to work or
spend time outdoors. Starting Tuesday night, the nighttime to early
morning low temperatures will be in the low 50s to mid 60s inland
and the upper 60s to low 70s along the coasts. Tranquil weather
conditions is expected to prevail through at least Thursday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

With the exception of terminals near the immediate coast, look for
VFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours. As far as
the coast goes, there will be some scattered showers around along
with periodic MVFR ceilings. Guidance does point toward some MVFR
ceilings expanding a bit further inland as we get closer to
sunrise...and perhaps prevailing into the mid-late morning hours
Saturday before lifting. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Moderate E-NE winds will prevail tonight into early next week.
Caution flags have been extended through Sunday morning, but is
likely to be extended further into Monday. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed during the day on Sunday and Monday for winds
increasing to around 20 knots over the Gulf waters. Seas will be 3-5
feet.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters
through Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the region late
Monday into early Tuesday, resulting in moderate N-NE winds on
Tuesday. Light to occasionally moderate E winds are expected
Thursday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 90 72 94 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 77 88 / 50 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

GEFS trending cooler in the medium- long range, starting to show signs of a fall front that the Euro / GFS are actually in decent agreement about, this is 10/12 days out but surprisingly good agreement lol

[Cpv17]

GEFS trending cooler in the medium- long range, starting to show signs of a fall front that the Euro / GFS are actually in decent agreement about, this is 10/12 days out but surprisingly good agreement lol

Gotta get it to within 5 days before you can start to get excited about it. Sure the heck not 10+ days out.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 it will trend up in time, just need to be patient lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 it will trend up in time, just need to be patient lol

I think you’re gonna have to wait towards the end of the month for all you cold weather lovers.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 maybe, but the time frame is moving up on the overnight runs, and ensemble guidance is picking up on it too so its a little more believable lol, not gonna lock it in yet, but i have our first legit fall front penciled in around the 15th or so, if im wrong im wrong, but their is growing support for a pretty decent front

[Stratton20]

Mizzou getting folded! You love to see it! GIG EM! Whoop!

[DoctorMu]

Nothing but 90s and dry are far as the crystal ball can see. Texarrakis lives on.

https://youtu.be/qynydbBpqy4?si=VBBLRg_97ldSvQO3

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I’m not concerned about the temps. They’re fine for me. I’m just concerned about the precipitation. Vegetation starting to get crunchy out there.

I’m right there with you. The weather has been great, very pleasant mornings. If we could just get some rain it would be nearly perfect.

Unfortunately the rest of the month looks to be pretty dry.

Yep. A total waste of October!

[Pas_Bon]

Nothing but 90s and dry are far as the crystal ball can see. Texarrakis lives on.

https://youtu.be/qynydbBpqy4?si=VBBLRg_97ldSvQO3

Thanks, I hate it. This October sucks booty.

[jasons2k]

Red alert for the Tampa Bay area. This looks really, really bad.

[javakah]

Kind of weird seeing where Milton is forming and then seeing all the models saying Florida instead of Texas/Louisiana.

[don]

Kind of weird seeing where Milton is forming and then seeing all the models saying Florida instead of Texas/Louisiana.

That's actually a common direction storms take in the gulf in the month of October (even when they develop in the western gulf). Due to the westerlies storms move northeast towards the eastern gulf.That's why its very hard to get a storm to hit Texas this time of year.