Remnants of TS Nicole

[Ptarmigan]

A complicated origin from Matthew and a monsoonal low pressure. This complex setup has led to some really intense hurricanes, Mitch (1998) and Wilma (2005).

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a huge rain maker for the East Coast and Florida...

HPC:

PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AT MORE MODERATE SCALE START EARLY IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGING MORE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS SEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THAT ACTS AS A MORE
EFFICIENT ERN US TROUGH/PCPN KICKER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OTHER
THAN NOGAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SEEMS TO SUGGESTS THAT THE
00 UTC ECMWF MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...LENDING TO A MORE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THE 00 UTC
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GFS/CANADIAN/NAEFS ENSEMBLES HOLD COPIOUSLY
MORE RAINFALL INLAND OVER THE ERN STATES WITH MORE ENERGY ALOFT
HOLDING BACK AT THE SRN END OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE 06
UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THAT LATTER
CLUSTER BUT 12 UTC GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOW STILL LEAVES THE DOOR
WIDE OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL
MOISTURE FUELED RAINS. A 16Z HPC/TPC COORDINATION CALL FOSTER SOME
FORM OF TROPICAL LOW INTO FL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A UNCERTAIN
STRENGTH/SPEED...BUT DEEP LEAD MOISTURE.

[Andrew]

NAM is similar to all other models:

[TexasBreeze]

There's a very broad area of low pressure in the nw carribean and it will take plenty of time to consolidate into a well defined system due to its very large size. It should track towards Florida due to our digging trough and cutoff upper low in the mid south/Tennessee area.
With troughs keeping up and westerlies strengthening around the conus and gulf, the end of tc threats is very close if not over for the nw gulf. (IMO)! Theres always the slightest chance of a rouge late-season homebrew system though. Florida and the se have a long ways to go though still.

[biggerbyte]

I agree with you on the troughs. All the really big stuff wants to stay south and east of Texas. Everything in between just fizzles, for the most part.

The comment about the westerlies scared me though. The last time someone used that term, and stated that Texas would be safe, we in S.E. Texas got a nasty reminder about what hurricane season is all about.

[Ptarmigan]

So much uncertainties. Only consensus I have seen with the models is something tropical in nature will develop and be a rainmaker. The question is will that monsoonal trough spawn one or two or even three tropical systems that would be Nicole, Otto, and Paula. If two were to be spawned that would be 15 named storms for the season. If Nicole was to form, we would have 8 storms form in September, which would be a record, since 2007. If Otto and Paula formed in September too, than 9 and 10 named storms in September and that would be a record.

[Andrew]

GFS shows the same thing but also another storm many days later:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Andrew]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

8 AM TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


HPC:

USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOLID CONTINUITY FOR DAYS
NOW...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO SUFFER FROM SOME OF THE FEEDBACK
FEATURES OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE GFS DRAWS SEVERAL
SUSPICIOUSLY POTENT IMPULSES FROM THE SUBTROPICS ALONG THE SHARP
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GEM GLOBAL INCORPORATES ONE
OF THESE CIRCULATIONS BODILY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY
DAY 4...WHICH SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE ITS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER OVER THE EAST. THE UKMET BEARS THE MOST RESEMBLANCE TO
THE ECMWF...INDICATING A MORE POSITIVE TILT TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN ONLY MINOR RUN TO
RUN VARIATIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND SHOULD AFFORD THE
MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AS WELL.

[srainhoutx]

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION JET AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[TexasBreeze]

I would have thought it would have had an invest number designated for it by now since there have been pending invest flights planned for it. ? It's going to become a big rain producer for Florida all up the east coast of the US. There's a nice tropical tap along a stationary front there.

[srainhoutx]

I would have thought it would have had an invest number designated for it by now since there have been pending invest flights planned for it. ? It's going to become a big rain producer for Florida all up the east coast of the US. There's a nice tropical tap along a stationary front there.

Just declared...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009271821
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Code: Select all

 KWBC 271823

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC MON SEP 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100927  1800   100928  0600   100928  1800   100929  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  86.0W   19.6N  86.0W   19.3N  86.0W   18.7N  84.9W
BAMD    19.0N  86.0W   19.4N  85.8W   19.2N  85.4W   19.7N  84.1W
BAMM    19.0N  86.0W   19.5N  85.9W   19.2N  85.8W   18.8N  84.7W
LBAR    19.0N  86.0W   19.8N  85.7W   20.9N  85.8W   22.6N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100929  1800   100930  1800   101001  1800   101002  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.7N  82.5W   24.4N  78.0W   28.4N  75.7W   30.9N  75.3W
BAMD    21.4N  82.6W   26.4N  79.0W   30.6N  74.7W   34.2N  66.4W
BAMM    19.8N  82.6W   24.2N  78.7W   27.5N  76.0W   30.4N  74.4W
LBAR    25.2N  85.7W   31.0N  84.4W   34.8N  78.3W   39.3N  66.2W
SHIP        62KTS          71KTS          76KTS          69KTS
DSHP        62KTS          63KTS          69KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  86.0W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  18.0N LONM12 =  86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  17.0N LONM24 =  86.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 

[TexasBreeze]

Yes there it is! I should have waited just a tad longer to make my post! lol

[srainhoutx]

Appears the Euro, GFS and UKMet likes an East Coast of Florida approach, while the Canadian suggest the W Coast. Regardless, a big rain maker up the Eastern Seaboard.

[srainhoutx]

This is from Pro Met btangy who is working with the PREDICT Team...FYI: New data will be in the 00Z ECMWF run as well...

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Models have been re run by the NHC...trying to locate a center?...

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1948 UTC MON SEP 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100927  1800   100928  0600   100928  1800   100929  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  88.0W   18.4N  87.0W   17.9N  85.7W   18.1N  83.5W
BAMD    18.4N  88.0W   18.2N  87.1W   17.7N  86.0W   17.8N  84.2W
BAMM    18.4N  88.0W   18.3N  86.9W   17.6N  85.7W   17.5N  83.7W
LBAR    18.4N  88.0W   18.6N  87.3W   19.3N  87.2W   20.6N  87.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100929  1800   100930  1800   101001  1800   101002  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.8N  80.9W   25.6N  76.2W   30.4N  72.8W   34.6N  68.5W
BAMD    19.1N  82.0W   23.1N  78.0W   24.6N  75.2W   25.9N  72.8W
BAMM    18.6N  81.4W   23.0N  76.9W   25.6N  74.3W   28.5N  72.4W
LBAR    22.9N  87.2W   28.3N  87.2W   31.9N  84.2W   33.9N  76.5W
SHIP        61KTS          72KTS          72KTS          67KTS
DSHP        62KTS          65KTS          65KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.4N LONCUR =  88.0W DIRCUR =  75DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  18.2N LONM12 =  88.9W DIRM12 =  77DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  89.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks...

[TexasBreeze]

Convection is really blossoming down there tonight. Just a little more organization needed and a more defined circulation needed too and it will be on its way to developing, but it wont be too fast or strong due to shear and dry air to the west.

[biggerbyte]

One thing is for sure. If things do not change, this system will stay well east of Texas.
As a matter of fact, it could just slide ne and only brush Florida as it heads off to the east of the conus.
October will be closing in on us soon. In doing so, our 2010 hurricane season will be winding down, for the most part.
This has been the year for the Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.