September 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Pas_Bon
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Here comes the September Suck.
Thankfully, we only have a few more weeks.
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DoctorMu
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Potentially another two weeks before a FROPA. Frik.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu yeah id say after the 20th we might see some changes again, we just gotta survive the misery for another 2 weeks or so lol
Pas_Bon
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:30 pm Potentially another two weeks before a FROPA. Frik.
If our first major FROPA doesn’t come until mid-October, a grown man (me) will probably cry.

I’’ve been spoiled by our early September front.
Cromagnum
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 7:35 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:30 pm Potentially another two weeks before a FROPA. Frik.
If our first major FROPA doesn’t come until mid-October, a grown man (me) will probably cry.

I’’ve been spoiled by our early September front.
There have been years where we had to wait until November for one.
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jasons2k
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The recent misty rains didn’t do much around here. The ground is still bone dry so the grass is already shriveling up and some of my shrubs are wilting. Looks pretty hot too! 🥵
Pas_Bon
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 8:12 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 7:35 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:30 pm Potentially another two weeks before a FROPA. Frik.
If our first major FROPA doesn’t come until mid-October, a grown man (me) will probably cry.

I’’ve been spoiled by our early September front.
There have been years where we had to wait until November for one.
Looks like mid-October is the latest we can see based on records since 1982. I’m not sure what the Temperature criteria was here, but someone made a chart outlining the first major front each year in the HOU metro area since 1982

Image
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 4:06 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 8:12 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 7:35 pm

If our first major FROPA doesn’t come until mid-October, a grown man (me) will probably cry.

I’’ve been spoiled by our early September front.
There have been years where we had to wait until November for one.
Looks like mid-October is the latest we can see based on records since 1982. I’m not sure what the Temperature criteria was here, but someone made a chart outlining the first major front each year in the HOU metro area since 1982

Image
Regardless of the threshold, the trend toward October is disturbing. That's the thing I've notice in living in Texas over over 33 years now. The Falls are warmer and more humid. Last Fall was pretty good, though - more like the 90s. The Summers always suck, but are more variable. Springs seem similar except for an earlier severe season, extending eastward into LA, MS, AL, TN.

Winters average about the same, but there's a bit more variability, including the chance of wintry mischief up in CLL. Until X-mas Eve 2004, we never saw snow. A couple of ice storms. From 2004 until today we've seen about 10 accumulating snow events (2004, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2014?, 2017 2018, 2021 (twice), 2023). I need to check the dates with my daughter. lol
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don
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Well I’m out of SE Texas and I’m finally in Wichita Falls.Looking forward to fall.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 7:53 pm Well I’m out of SE Texas and I’m finally in Wichita Falls.Looking forward to fall.
Good luck seeing exciting weather up there lol you’ll need it.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 8:37 pm
don wrote: Fri Sep 13, 2024 7:53 pm Well I’m out of SE Texas and I’m finally in Wichita Falls.Looking forward to fall.
Good luck seeing exciting weather up there lol you’ll need it.
I can see that perspective if you’re looking for a lot of rain. But this area has a much more active weather pattern in the winter and severe weather season than SE Texas does. I don’t mind seeing significantly less rain if it means I can experience winter storms. Which is my main weather interest these days.😉
Stratton20
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Euro 00z has a decent FROPA around the 23/24th
Stratton20
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GFS and Euro now in agreement on a frontal passage around the 23rd or so
Cpv17
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LSU looks awful and Kelly looks like he’s about to blow a gasket on the sideline, sheesh. This doesn’t look like LSU football at all.
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don
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I don't think i ever mentioned why i moved away in the first place. I work from home so i had the ability to move anywhere in Texas. Believe it or not the only reason why i moved away was for the weather LOL. The main reason being to experience winter storms, and the other reason was for tornado chasing.I was going to move to the ArkLaTex originally, but the Ouachita mountains can ruin winter storm setups up there due to cold air damming. Living in SE Texas my whole life I've seen more than enough floods and heavy rain to last a lifetime. So i don't have a problem seeing less rain up here. As the very dynamic weather here makes up for that.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat Sep 14, 2024 1:32 pm I don't think i ever mentioned why i moved away in the first place. I work from home so i had the ability to move anywhere in Texas. Believe it or not the only reason why i moved away was for the weather LOL. The main reason being to experience winter storms, and the other reason was for tornado chasing.I was going to move to the ArkLaTex originally, but the Ouachita mountains can ruin winter storm setups up there due to cold air damming. Living in SE Texas my whole life I've seen more than enough floods and heavy rain to last a lifetime. So i don't have a problem seeing less rain up here. As the very dynamic weather here makes up for that.
You’ll see some good storms up there a few times a year. Not sure about winter storms though. Temps will be crazy cold, but not sure they get enough moisture there for consistent winter storms. Regardless, you’ll easily have a better chance to see snow there, at least.
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don
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don wrote: I don't think i ever mentioned why i moved away in the first place. I work from home so i had the ability to move anywhere in Texas. Believe it or not the only reason why i moved away was for the weather LOL. The main reason being to experience winter storms, and the other reason was for tornado chasing.I was going to move to the ArkLaTex originally, but the Ouachita mountains can ruin winter storm setups up there due to cold air damming. Living in SE Texas my whole life I've seen more than enough floods and heavy rain to last a lifetime. So i don't have a problem seeing less rain up here. As the very dynamic weather here makes up for that.


You’ll see some good storms up there a few times a year. Not sure about winter storms though. Temps will be crazy cold, but not sure they get enough moisture there for consistent winter storms. Regardless, you’ll easily have a better chance to see snow there, at least.

Trust me Ive did the research LOL. Some years winter weather events are a dime a dozen here (2014 as an example). OUN has a ton of weather data.This area gets significant winter storms including blizzards. And even with less precip overall this area gets more snow/ice on average than DFW or the Arklatex do. Its much easier to get big winter events here than those areas further east even at the same latitude.The only area of the state that gets more snow is the panhandle. A good rule of thumb here is if Oklahoma City is experiencing a winter storm, it usually stretches down to this area also. Below are some examples.

1y52471802_3989083891112508_9093990353371643774_n.png
201540202-snowfall.png
PrelimSnow1227.png
snowfalltotals2.jpg
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Last edited by don on Sat Sep 14, 2024 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
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Well LSU made a nice comeback and got the W. Pas_Bon will be happy now 😂
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat Sep 14, 2024 3:02 pm
don wrote: I don't think i ever mentioned why i moved away in the first place. I work from home so i had the ability to move anywhere in Texas. Believe it or not the only reason why i moved away was for the weather LOL. The main reason being to experience winter storms, and the other reason was for tornado chasing.I was going to move to the ArkLaTex originally, but the Ouachita mountains can ruin winter storm setups up there due to cold air damming. Living in SE Texas my whole life I've seen more than enough floods and heavy rain to last a lifetime. So i don't have a problem seeing less rain up here. As the very dynamic weather here makes up for that.


You’ll see some good storms up there a few times a year. Not sure about winter storms though. Temps will be crazy cold, but not sure they get enough moisture there for consistent winter storms. Regardless, you’ll easily have a better chance to see snow there, at least.

Trust me Ive did the research LOL. Some years winter weather events are a dime a dozen here (2014 as an example). OUN has a ton of weather data.This area gets significant winter storms including blizzards. And even with less precip overall this area gets more snow/ice on average than DFW or the Arklatex do. Its much easier to get big winter events here than those areas further east even at the same latitude.The only area of the state that gets more snow is the panhandle. A good rule of thumb here is if Oklahoma City is experiencing a winter storm, it usually stretches down to this area also. Below are some examples.


1y52471802_3989083891112508_9093990353371643774_n.png201540202-snowfall.pngPrelimSnow1227.pngsnowfalltotals2.jpg
Yeah, but how often do they get snow? Seems like the NTX area hasn’t seen much snow at all lately.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote:
don wrote: I don't think i ever mentioned why i moved away in the first place. I work from home so i had the ability to move anywhere in Texas. Believe it or not the only reason why i moved away was for the weather LOL. The main reason being to experience winter storms, and the other reason was for tornado chasing.I was going to move to the ArkLaTex originally, but the Ouachita mountains can ruin winter storm setups up there due to cold air damming. Living in SE Texas my whole life I've seen more than enough floods and heavy rain to last a lifetime. So i don't have a problem seeing less rain up here. As the very dynamic weather here makes up for that.


You’ll see some good storms up there a few times a year. Not sure about winter storms though. Temps will be crazy cold, but not sure they get enough moisture there for consistent winter storms. Regardless, you’ll easily have a better chance to see snow there, at least.

Trust me Ive did the research LOL. Some years winter weather events are a dime a dozen here (2014 as an example). OUN has a ton of weather data.This area gets significant winter storms including blizzards. And even with less precip overall this area gets more snow/ice on average than DFW or the Arklatex do. Its much easier to get big winter events here than those areas further east even at the same latitude.The only area of the state that gets more snow is the panhandle. A good rule of thumb here is if Oklahoma City is experiencing a winter storm, it usually stretches down to this area also. Below are some examples.


1y52471802_3989083891112508_9093990353371643774_n.png201540202-snowfall.pngPrelimSnow1227.pngsnowfalltotals2.jpg
Yeah, but how often do they get snow? Seems like the NTX area hasn’t seen much snow at all lately.
DFW/ north central Texas have had some issues with snow, not up here though which is considered northwest Texas.The weather up here is more in common with OKC than DFW.This area hasn't experienced the snow drought that DFW has. And it has snowed every year in Wichita Falls for the last 6 years in a row. And all of these events included a couple of inches of snow at the least.(2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024) Its dry but not that dry, the average precip a year is 30 inches here, so its not a desert. LOL 😄
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