September 2024

[don]

Hopefully the storm stays east of here, I move to northwest Texas next week and i don't wont any interference with my move LOL.

[brazoriatx]

Hopefully the storm stays east of here, I move to northwest Texas next week and i don't wont any interference with my move LOL.

We gotta give you the proper send off don! Lol

[Stratton20]

12z Euro tries to recurve a pacific system and bring the remnants into texas lol

[Cpv17]

12z Euro tries to recurve a pacific system and bring the remnants into texas lol

It’s that time of the year coming soon where you have to watch for that.

[TxLady]

Awfully quiet, in here, with something brewing in the Gulf. Everybody must be outside enjoying this first taste of Fall. It is absolutely perfect outside!

[walsean1]

Francine is headed East to Central Louisiana so we are in the clear in Texas. Hopefully that is it for Hurricane season in the gulf as we start to get move fronts pushing through the state

[tireman4]

Francine is headed East to Central Louisiana so we are in the clear in Texas. Hopefully that is it for Hurricane season in the gulf as we start to get move fronts pushing through the state

Please read my response on the Francine thread. First, we are not in the clear. Beaumont will feel more than we, but they are in the CWA. Second, if you look at the HGX forecast for Hobby, it stares Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Third, never count out a Storm until it past us. A westerly track could still happen. We remain vigilant.

[Ptarmigan]

Francine is headed East to Central Louisiana so we are in the clear in Texas. Hopefully that is it for Hurricane season in the gulf as we start to get move fronts pushing through the state

Please read my response on the Francine thread. First, we are not in the clear. Beaumont will feel more than we, but they are in the CWA. Second, if you look at the HGX forecast for Hobby, it stares Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Third, never count out a Storm until it past us. A westerly track could still happen. We remain vigilant.

Agreed. We will feel some impact. Where it goes, it is still uncertain.

I never relied much on climatology. There is a chance of hurricanes making landfall into November on Texas. It has happened, back in 1839.

[Stratton20]

Based on the fact that francine is strengthening at a steady but somewhat faster pace, id say maybe some coastal impacts, but a direct hit to se texas is pretty much out of the cards now, folks in louisiana better be prepared for a hurricane

[DoctorMu]

Awfully quiet, in here, with something brewing in the Gulf. Everybody must be outside enjoying this first taste of Fall. It is absolutely perfect outside!

We were in NOLA getting soaked on Friday and Saturday. Sunday was fantastic if a bit humid and high in the upper 80s. Missed the glorious DPs in CLL.

We did escape Francine, although we could see her fringe clouds while driving back from LA LA.

[tireman4]

540
FXUS64 KHGX 101135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

The major focus of the forecast remains on Tropical Storm
Francine. And while confidence is becoming quite high that we will
not see any sort of direct landfall to Southeast Texas, there is
also quite good confidence that we will see direct impacts to the
coastal waters off our coast, as well as increased rain and wind
chances along the coastal locations of Southeast Texas. These are
the highlights:

- On land: A tropical storm watch is in effect for all of our
coastline from the Matagorda Ship Channel to High Island. This
includes coastal Harris County on Galveston Bay.
- On the waters: A tropical storm watch is in place for Galveston
and Matagorda bays. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for all
of our Gulf waters within 20 nm of shore from Matagorda Ship
Channel to High Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
place for the Gulf waters 20-60 nm out from the Matagorda Ship
Channel to Freeport, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for
the 20-60 nm waters from Freeport to High Island.
- There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1
of 4) today and tomorrow for coastal portions of Southeast
Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Tropical Storm Francine, currently off the northeast Mexico coast,
will increasingly influence regional weather through the short
term. On its current forecast of track and intensity, most direct
impacts will be to our coastal Gulf waters, particularly the
offshore waters (20-60 NM from shore) off Galveston Bay. However,
any deviation to the west of the current forecast track would
bring increased potential for tropical storm conditions along the
immediate Gulf coast, and so a tropical storm watch remains in
effect along our entire stretch of coastline. Expect the storm to
make its closest approach, and have its highest impact on SE
Texas weather, overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.

Until then, look for a bit of a split weather regime across our
area today. In the northwestern half of the area, look for more
sun and high temperatures reaching into the upper 80s and lower
90s. Humidity will be...lower...as the weekend dry air tries to
hold on, but even up here, dewpoints will be approaching 70
degrees in the afternoon. In the southeastern half of the area, a
more tropical airmass will prevail. Expect dewpoints to surge into
the 70s by early to mid morning, and increasing cloud cover will
keep temperatures down lower in the 80s.

We can also expect some shower development, particularly at the
coast this afternoon. This may only be indirectly related to
the outer fringe of Francine. Yesterday, like a parrot or a snake,
Francine appears to have gone through a molting. The storm shed
off its earlier convection, which has become its own mesoscale
convective system in the northwest Gulf. For the daytime today
at least, it may be this MCS that provides our coastal rain
potential. As we push into the evening though, it will be more
that we convection from the outer bands of Francine proper impact
the area.

One continuing theme in the forecast for Francine in our area is
the sharp gradient in rainfall that the storm is expected to have
on its western side. As a result, most of the area can likely
expect very little to no rainfall from this storm. However,
rainfall amounts look to increase fairly dramatically as you head
southeast towards the storm`s core. On the plus side, this has
really helped demonstrate a lower concern for excessive rainfall
for inland locations. However, there is a bit of lingering concern
at the coast. Taken literally, even here rainfall should be
manageable, with totals of 1-3 inches at the coast. But...you
don`t have to go offshore to find 3-5 inch totals, even in excess
of 8 inches a little farther offshore.

Any westward shift in track will start to move those higher
totals quickly towards the coast. Confidence is growing that this
will not be the case, but it is something to eye carefully as
Francine makes its approach. To look at it another way - the 90th
percentile rainfall would put that 3-5 inch band on our coastal
counties. This would be a fairly reasonable worst case scenario
still. And, given antecedent conditions and the timeframe in which
those rains accumulate, does leave a bit of heavy rainfall threat
right along the Gulf Coast. From a probabilistic standpoint, the
chances of getting at least four inches of rain across Brazoria,
Galveston, coastal Harris, and Chambers counties ranges from 15-35
percent. Certainly not the most likely scenario, but still a
plausible outcome!

As we wrap up tomorrow night and head towards Thursday morning,
Francine will have moved off well to the east, making its landfall
on the Louisiana coast. This will leave us in a drier spot, with
any lingering showers coming to an end, and diminishing north
winds. This should set us up for a much less eventful long term!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Mid-level ridging builds over south-central CONUS in the wake of
Francine`s departure on Thursday. Global models indicate significant
drying in the mid-levels, as well as some ML WAA. All these factors
coupled with the return of onshore LL flow will bring humid summery
conditions back to southeast Texas by the end of the week and into
the weekend. One trend we have noticed in the long term is a general
increase in the expected temperatures and a decrease in the PoPs. We
still cannot rule out isolated diurnally influenced shower and
thunderstorm activity. But PoPs are generally pretty low (10-20%) in
the Thursday-Sunday time frame. Perhaps we can raise those PoPs a
little by early next week. Meanwhile, inland afternoon highs are
expected to average around 90 on Thursday, before heating up into
the low/mid 90s Friday-Sunday (a tad cooler at the coast). Once
humidity is thrown into the mix, heat index values are expected to
average in the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Very high confidence that the approach of TS Francine will
complicate the aviation forecast significantly...of lesser
confidence is the specifics of how exactly this will evolve,
particularly for terminals like UTS, CXO, IAH, and SGR - which
will be on a tight gradient between more significant SHRA and
winds to the east, and drier, less windy conditions to the north
and west. For these gradient terminals, have sketched out more
broad windows of potential impact with VCs and PROB30s, hopefully
to be refined in future forecast cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Francine is expected to become a hurricane today as it tracks into
the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Expect increasing squalls, winds, and
seas today as the storm approaches. The center of the storm will
make its closest approach to our waters late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This is when the worst conditions will occur.
Tropical Storm conditions are likely beginning later today through
Wednesday, especially over the Gulf waters. Hurricane conditions are
expected farther offshore. Conditions will improve Wednesday night
into Thursday. By Friday into the weekend, light to moderate winds
and low seas are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 73 85 70 / 20 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 85 74 82 72 / 50 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 82 74 / 90 70 60 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-300-313-335>338-436>439.

Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ330-335.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ350-355-370.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[DoctorMu]

Another Louisiana hurricane that will naturally elevate temps over the next few days, thwarting our September cooldown (again).

DP soared from 55°F to 72°F. There are tiny showers around hitting the wall close to CLL



Rain chances are down to 30% tomorrow. Highs on Friday and Saturday of 97°F and 98°F. We're locked into heat for another weak after that Thanks, Francine.

Hoping the dry air continues to put the hurt of Francine.

[Stratton20]

Can we just skip to October already?

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I knew the 70% chances of rain for tomorrow that had been advertised for a week over here would eventually get yanked. Par for the course. Time to run the sprinklers, again…

[tireman4]

840
FXUS64 KHGX 111136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Though not directly entering our forecast area, Hurricane Francine
is passing close enough to the area that we`ll still see some
impacts here - mainly over the Gulf waters, but also extending
into parts of Southeast Texas. Here are the key points for our
area with Francine`s close approach:
- The only remaining tropical warning in our area is for the Gulf
waters from Freeport to High Island, 20-60 nm from shore. Winds
elsewhere on the waters will still be modestly elevated, and so
there is a small craft advisory for the remaining waters.
- Similarly, though no tropical warnings are in place, it still
looks to be a breezy day at the coast, and so a wind advisory is
in place until early afternoon from coastal Matagorda County
along the Gulf Coast to Chambers County. This does *not* include
coastal Harris County.
- Swaths of heavy rainfall are expected to remain offshore, with
less than half an inch of rain expected even at the coast (and
for the large majority of the area, expect less than a quarter
inch). Moisture levels along the coast are still quite high, so
there may be an individual sporty cell over Southeast Texas that
drops a quick inch or two...ultimately, not too dissimilar from
a more typical summer day in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine has made its way within 250 miles of Galveston,
and will make its closest approach to Southeast Texas early this
morning, before making its way on to landfall along the Louisiana
coastline. This is close enough that tropical storm conditions
will be expected in a portion of our Gulf waters, but will not
extend to the shore (or even within 20 nm of shore, really). It
will be a bit on the breezy side along the coast, so we do have a
wind advisory for our islands, peninsulas, and coastal zones
through the early afternoon, and a small craft advisory on the
remainder of our waters. Not quite tropical storm conditions, but
a bit of a windy day with frequent gusts above 25 mph.

Those winds should start to back down gradually through the
afternoon as the storm begins to gain distance from our area and
the pressure gradient weakens. Rain chances - particularly east of
the Brazos Valley should persist deep into the afternoon before
fading out into the evening. While widespread swaths of rain may
push into the offshore waters this morning, we should not expect
that over Southeast Texas. For the land, the character of rain
will be more periodic, as outer bands will sweep rain showers
across the area with some embedded stronger cells...then things
quiet down for a while until the next round.

So, for most folks, don`t look for a lot of rain. Broadly
speaking, widespread totals should be less than half an inch along
the Upper Texas coast, with even less rainfall for the vast
majority of the area - less than a quarter-inch. With that said,
those embedded stronger cells will be capable of producing
isolated spots of more significant rainfall. Precipitable water
values look to be around or above 2 inches along the coast and
east of roughly I-45, and in these areas, there may be an
individual cell that manages to drop a quick inch or two in a
localized spot. Of course, this highly variable rainfall is a
staple of the Southeast Texas experience, and will largely only be
an issue if that rain occurs over a particularly vulnerable spot.

Where water may be more of a concern is when it comes to coastal
flooding. A coastal flood warning is also in effect, and area tide
gauges show a potential for around 2 feet of innundation above
MHHW (a rough proxy for ground level, though that is quite
variable depending on what that `ground` in AGL is) at high tide
early this morning.

Tomorrow...we begin a bit of a return to late summer conditions.
The sky will be mostly sunny in the wake of Francine, and just how
much cloud cover and humidity lingers will determine just how warm
we get. In the east, which will hang onto Francine influence the
longest, look for highs in the middle 80s. Out on the western edge
of our area, highs should break into the lower 90s. Offshore winds
will try to hold back more humid air, and while it won`t be "dry",
those winds should see modest success. In the day, that will
likely help temperatures warm up a bit more effectively. At night,
it will give us one distinctive difference from full summer, as it
should allow us to cool efficiently. Coastal areas can still
expect lows hung up in the lower 70s, but north of I-10 should see
widespread lows in the middle to upper 60s. Crisp fall night? No,
not really...but it`s not the oppressive summer night sauna,
either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Not much has changed regarding the long term forecast. Mid/upper
ridging builds while a LL onshore flow regime returns for Friday
into the weekend, yielding to hot temperatures and humid conditions.
Highs are expected to range from upper 80s to low 90s near the coast
to low/mid 90s inland. We are noticing some upper 90s pixels
appearing in our grids for the Brazos Valley. Weekend heat index
values are expected to be 100-105F. Technically below advisory
criteria but still hot enough to warrant heat safety. Overnight lows
are expected to average in the low/mid 70s inland and mid/upper 70s
near the coast and within the urban heat island.

There is some guidance support for a modest breakdown of the ridging
over our area early next week. This is why many of you will notice
an uptick in the PoPs and a down tick in the temps by Monday and
Tuesday. Nonetheless, the outlook remains quite summery through at
least early next week. So no autumn for you! At least not yet...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Basically a certainty that outer bands of Francine will impact
TAFs, but much fuzzier how exactly that will evolve. Begin with a
mix of IFR and MVFR per obs, and VCSH from IAH southward. A line
of showers is close enough to IAH that I`m comfortable TEMPOing
light SHRA for the first hour or so. After that...timing out rain
at the terminals may be a fool`s errand. So I stick with broad
windows of VCSH, and will trust future forecasts to refine with
TEMPO/Prevailing SHRA as needed through the day. CIGs expected to
gradually become MVFR area-wide through the day, then will go one
of two ways tonight: the more optimistic, clouds break enough that
we lose CIGs and go VFR; the more pessimistic, that clouds hang
tight and we stay with MVFR CIGs through the period. I`m
conservatively going with the pessimistic option, but maybe we can
get lucky and break out early.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The outer rainbands of Hurricane Francine will continue to impact
the coastal waters and immediate coast through the early to mid
morning hours. Winds outside of the bands are generally 20 to 30
knots with occasionally higher gusts. Winds within rainbands,
particularly within thunderstorms embedded in the rainbands, could
reach 40 to 45 knots at times. Also cannot rule out waterspouts.
Seas this morning are generally expected to be in the 7 to 11 foot
range. Winds will gradually back from the northeast to north, then
northwest as the day progresses while also gradually decreasing.
Seas will also gradually fall by the afternoon. It may take until
Thursday morning to complete rid our marine space of Small Craft
Advisory level winds and seas. A light to moderate onshore pattern
is expected to return by Thursday night, lasting until at least
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 70 89 68 / 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 84 72 89 71 / 40 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 73 85 76 / 40 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-336>338-
436>439.

Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-
313-335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[jasons2k]

Getting a little shower with more coming (unless it dissipates). Nice sendoff before the next mini-drought.

[javakah]

Ugh, it's been so much nicer recently. Once again a hurricane in the area shifts us to a hotter pattern.

[DoctorMu]

Ugh, it's been so much nicer recently. Once again a hurricane in the area shifts us to a hotter pattern.

Yeah - I HATE when that happens. I enjoyed a taste of Fall Monday evening when we arrived back in town from NOLA. Then Francine began to take it away yesterday. After Francine departs, Baton Rouge remains in the 80s and we're 10°F+ degrees warmer.

Just when the weather was starting to turn.

[tireman4]

271
FXUS64 KHGX 121130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine will push northward through the Mississippi River Valley
today. Despite the storm`s departure from our region, wrap around
ML / LL moisture is pushing LL cloud coverage southward into our
CWA this morning. These clouds are expected to break as the day
progresses. Meanwhile, the mid/upper levels over Texas will
continue to be dominated by the trough that helped push Francine
to our east. The deep northwest flow combined with the clouds
earlier in the day and relatively low mid/upper pressure heights
will help keep temperatures in check, with highs mostly in the
85-90 degree range. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s north of I-10 (low/mid 60s far north CWA), low 70s south of
I-10 (and within Houston`s urban heat inland), and mid 70s at the
coast.

Unfortunately for those who are looking for a cooling trend, the
synoptic pattern will shift to ridging regime over south-central
CONUS starting on Friday. RAP 500MB analysis already shows this
ridge beginning to build over New Mexico and West Texas. This
ridge will drift eastward, park its axis over Texas, and begin to
amplify on Friday. Therefore, it is no surprise that Friday`s
forecast temps are a little hotter with most inland locations
reaching the low/mid 90s. We do live in SE Texas y`all. It`s hard
to shake off summery weather in our neck of the woods. We`ll feel
the cooler winds of fall eventually. Just not anytime soon.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

A warming trend along with increasing humidity is expected
through the long term period.

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure to our east will dominate
the weather pattern through most of the period. Strong subsidence
and low PWATs (~1.2 to 1.5 inch range per NAM) will result in
little to no precipitation, though a few showers cannot be ruled
out near the coast. Increasing heights and onshore surface winds
will bring back above normal temperatures. In fact, the NAEFS
standardized anomaly table maintains 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for 850 mb temperatures Saturday through early next
week. This will add confidence that surface temperatures will
range a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Have highs
into the mid to upper 90s Saturday through Monday, with the
warmest values generally across the Brazos Valley.

Mid to upper level heights weakens a bit next week in response to
the amplification of a trough moving across the Pacific
Northwest. Weaker heights will lead to an increase in low- level
moisture across our region through the week. Overall, expect hot
and humid conditions with isolated showers or storms, mainly over
the coastal zones.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

A low-level, mostly MVFR, cloud deck is filter south over the
region. Areas of IFR cigs are occurring as well. These clouds are
expected to continue pushing south over the next few hours. By
late morning, cigs are expected to lift. Mostly VFR is expected by
the afternoon. It`s worth mentioning that patchy fog is possible
through mid morning as well. Winds will generally be light and out
of the northwest. Could not rule out a brief period of
southeasterly winds at GLS due to the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Weather conditions will continue to improve today with light to
occasionally moderate north to northeast winds and low seas.
Surface high pressure will move over the region, resulting in
benign weather into the upcoming week. Onshore winds return by
Friday as the high pressure shifts to our east. A few showers will
be possible every day, especially near the coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel. However, impacts should be
very minimal.

Beach conditions: Conditions are improving, but there is still a
risk of minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents
through this afternoon.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 67 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 70 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 86 78 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-
313-335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

[DoctorMu]

98°F Saturday and Sunday. Thanks, Francine.