August 2024
1-5 inches of rain over the next 7-10 days seems reasonable.
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Stratton20
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DoctrMu yup seems reasonable, already got 1.5 inches from a storm alone yesterday
Ehhh, the latest runs of the GFS and Euro look kinda meh. Majority of the rains are out in the Gulf.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 9:36 am Se texas should get some very healthy rains, heaviest at the coast, but this is a good general thinking, 1-3 inches north of i-10, 4-7 inches across the houston metro and points south, 8-10+ at the coast
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 gotta take that with a grain of salt, wouldnt take much for those heavier rains to shift on shore, especially if their any weak disturbances coming in off the gulf, mesocale models will probably be a better help when they are in range
Yeah, but just about all the models across the board have most of the rain offshore and have been consistently showing that for the past couple days now. There will be a few areas that could see 5-10” but I think most of us will see 2-3” on average.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 10:12 am Cpv17 gotta take that with a grain of salt, wouldnt take much for those heavier rains to shift on shore, especially if their any weak disturbances coming in off the gulf, mesocale models will probably be a better help when they are in range
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Stratton20
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Newest QPF outlook brings in a foot of rain to galveston , 4-6+ in the houston metro, steering currents look very weak, we all know too well what slow moving and meandering systems can do,, especially with the warm gulf water to really provide that moisture feed into texas
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
VFR to a few MVFR ceilings prevail early this afternoon with only
VCSH along the coastal terminals. Expect an increase in
showers/storms later this afternoon, especially from IAH coastward
through early this evening. Confidence in occurrence is low to
moderate, but given the environment/current conditions, scattered
activity will be possible. The best chances for showers and storms
arrive late this evening into Thursday. Coastal terminals have
higher probabilities of rain/storms. A mixture of VFR to MVFR
conditions due to low ceilings and reduced visibility (due to
TSRA/SHRA) are expected through the TAF period.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
VFR to a few MVFR ceilings prevail early this afternoon with only
VCSH along the coastal terminals. Expect an increase in
showers/storms later this afternoon, especially from IAH coastward
through early this evening. Confidence in occurrence is low to
moderate, but given the environment/current conditions, scattered
activity will be possible. The best chances for showers and storms
arrive late this evening into Thursday. Coastal terminals have
higher probabilities of rain/storms. A mixture of VFR to MVFR
conditions due to low ceilings and reduced visibility (due to
TSRA/SHRA) are expected through the TAF period.
Sounds about right. Beggars can't be choosers. It's still August.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 10:33 amYeah, but just about all the models across the board have most of the rain offshore and have been consistently showing that for the past couple days now. There will be a few areas that could see 5-10” but I think most of us will see 2-3” on average.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 10:12 am Cpv17 gotta take that with a grain of salt, wouldnt take much for those heavier rains to shift on shore, especially if their any weak disturbances coming in off the gulf, mesocale models will probably be a better help when they are in range
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Stratton20
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Its still early in the game, im sticking with 4-7 inches widespread across se texas/ houston metro, 1-3 inches north of I-10 , with up to a foot at the coast, with steering weak at the coast, its complicated, everyone should be in for some good rains though, that im pretty much 100% confident in
0" at my house in the Woodlands since the Death Ridge backed off.
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TexasBreeze
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- Location: NW Houston, TX
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Nice big donut hole over most of the area today, but at least it is overcast and not 100 degrees
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
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GFS has an even stronger front a few days after the front on labor day, that looks like a fall front, thats some pretty cooler air,
Nothing today but clouds. This is getting ridiculous. Hopefully tomorrow we finally get something.
Well I just got my tickets off SeatGeek to the game Saturday. Hope the weather corporates. 3rd row seats! Gonna be right up on the action. Just hoping for a good game and environment.
I actually don’t mind LSU. I plan on going to a night game there at some point.
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Stratton20
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As of midnight im officially 24! Heres to another year of tracking and discussing crazy weather events on this forum!
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
806
FXUS64 KHGX 291139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated across Southeast Texas
throughout the short term period.
A mid level disturbance across the northwestern Gulf waters will
move into the Upper Texas coast today and meander near TX/LA border
through Friday, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Several vort maxes associated to the disturbance will be passing
through the area from time to time and will contribute to our rain
chances. Along the surface, healthy pulses of moisture from the Gulf
will be filtering into our local area, resulting in PWs of 2.1-2.4
inches, with some spots along the coastal region possibly having PWs
of up to 2.5 inches. This could result in rainfall rates of 2-3
inches per hour (at times) with some of the stronger storms and may
lead to localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas as
well as ponding of water along roadways. Based on where the
disturbance, PVA, and higher PWs are to be located, those who are
near and south of I-10 and east of I-45 have the best chance for
these periods of heavy rainfall. Some thunderstorms could also
produce frequent lightning and strong gusty winds.
One thing to keep in mind is that if the disturbance ends up
tracking more west, then we could have slightly higher rain chances
and possibly more of an opportunity for training storms along the
coastal regions. If it moves more east (into LA), then we could see
less rain chances than what is currently on our forecast.
As of early this morning, the HGX Doppler Radar was picking up on
some of those associated showers and thunderstorms just south of our
offshore coastal waters. Previous Hi-Res models were already placing
some activity over our coasts areas around this timeframe, so it
seems that once again the models are having a hard time initializing
the activity. For this reason, delayed inland rain chances and we
may need to scale it back a little more just before sunrise. For the
rest of the period, stayed mostly consistent with the previous one.
However, some additional minor tweaks can occur during the day today
given that the exact timing and location of these storms may be a
little difficult to pin point.
WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) along a line from Matagorda County northeastward into Liberty
County with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) over Brazoria, Galveston
and Chambers counties. Thus, keep those umbrellas nearby and make
sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. Check traffic
conditions along your route before heading out and do not cross
flooded roadways.
Cotto (28)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
The wet pattern is expected to prevail through the upcoming
holiday weekend and into the early part of next week, particularly
for locations along the immediate coast. Elevated rainfall chances
continue to be associated with the presence of midlevel low
pressure (and a broadly defined associated surface system) over
the Central Gulf. Total PW values will remain quite robust
(2.1-2.4 in) through the weekend and into next week, thanks to a
steady onshore flow pattern. With both diurnal heating and
midlevel vorticity advection invigorating shower/storm development
each day, most of the area should see at least an inch of
rainfall through Tuesday with locations south of the I-10 corridor
likely seeing higher totals. That being said, there remains a
fairly high amount of spread in the latest NBM distribution QPF
and the possibility of isolated stronger storms producing locally
high rainfall totals must be considered. Median QPF values
generally sit between 3-4" south of the I-10 corridor between
Saturday morning and Monday night, with locations along and north
of I-10 between 1-3"...with 75th percentile values of up to 6"
near the coast standing out in the latest blend. As such, WPC
maintains a Marginal to Slight risk for excessive rainfall for
areas south of the I-10 corridor through Tuesday morning. Looking
into next week, the approach of a weak midlevel trough from the
NW keeps rain chances in the forecast through Wednesday (and
likely beyond) with moisture availability remaining elevated.
That being said, it`s too early to pinpoint the exact evolution of
this feature.
With widespread cloud cover and elevated rainfall chances in the
forecast, daily high temperatures will remain confined to the
upper 80s/low 90s for most of the area while overnight lows
continue to sit in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While this presents
a lower heat stress risk than that of many recent days, it`s still
important to remain cognizant of the signs of heat illness if you
plan to be spending time outdoors over the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Upper level disturbance moving across the SE TX region will
result in several rounds of SH/TS today and Fr. Look for iso
SH/TS this morning, followed by sct/num SH/TS in the afternoon to
evening hrs. A lull in activity can be expected late evening and
early tonight, but another round of storms is expected to move
across the coastal and SE portions during the overnight to early
morning hrs. Overall, the highest chances for both days are along
the coast and SE sections of the region with lower chances to the
NW. Some storms will be accompanied by strong gusty winds, and
reduced vis/cigs due to heavy rainfall.
Cigs may be bouncing between MVFR to VFR throughout the TAF
period. Light VRB this morning, becoming E-SE in the afternoon,
and back to light and VRB tonight.
Cotto(24)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue for the foreseeable
future, with wave heights remaining near or below 3 feet. Daily
chances of showers and storms will peak in the morning to early
afternoon, with any stronger storms having the potential to
produce a brief period of locally higher winds and seas. Rain
chances remain elevated through at least the middle of next week
thanks to the continued presence of a weak low pressure system
over the Central Gulf.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 73 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
Houston (IAH) 87 75 88 76 / 70 50 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 79 / 80 70 90 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 291139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated across Southeast Texas
throughout the short term period.
A mid level disturbance across the northwestern Gulf waters will
move into the Upper Texas coast today and meander near TX/LA border
through Friday, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Several vort maxes associated to the disturbance will be passing
through the area from time to time and will contribute to our rain
chances. Along the surface, healthy pulses of moisture from the Gulf
will be filtering into our local area, resulting in PWs of 2.1-2.4
inches, with some spots along the coastal region possibly having PWs
of up to 2.5 inches. This could result in rainfall rates of 2-3
inches per hour (at times) with some of the stronger storms and may
lead to localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas as
well as ponding of water along roadways. Based on where the
disturbance, PVA, and higher PWs are to be located, those who are
near and south of I-10 and east of I-45 have the best chance for
these periods of heavy rainfall. Some thunderstorms could also
produce frequent lightning and strong gusty winds.
One thing to keep in mind is that if the disturbance ends up
tracking more west, then we could have slightly higher rain chances
and possibly more of an opportunity for training storms along the
coastal regions. If it moves more east (into LA), then we could see
less rain chances than what is currently on our forecast.
As of early this morning, the HGX Doppler Radar was picking up on
some of those associated showers and thunderstorms just south of our
offshore coastal waters. Previous Hi-Res models were already placing
some activity over our coasts areas around this timeframe, so it
seems that once again the models are having a hard time initializing
the activity. For this reason, delayed inland rain chances and we
may need to scale it back a little more just before sunrise. For the
rest of the period, stayed mostly consistent with the previous one.
However, some additional minor tweaks can occur during the day today
given that the exact timing and location of these storms may be a
little difficult to pin point.
WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) along a line from Matagorda County northeastward into Liberty
County with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) over Brazoria, Galveston
and Chambers counties. Thus, keep those umbrellas nearby and make
sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. Check traffic
conditions along your route before heading out and do not cross
flooded roadways.
Cotto (28)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
The wet pattern is expected to prevail through the upcoming
holiday weekend and into the early part of next week, particularly
for locations along the immediate coast. Elevated rainfall chances
continue to be associated with the presence of midlevel low
pressure (and a broadly defined associated surface system) over
the Central Gulf. Total PW values will remain quite robust
(2.1-2.4 in) through the weekend and into next week, thanks to a
steady onshore flow pattern. With both diurnal heating and
midlevel vorticity advection invigorating shower/storm development
each day, most of the area should see at least an inch of
rainfall through Tuesday with locations south of the I-10 corridor
likely seeing higher totals. That being said, there remains a
fairly high amount of spread in the latest NBM distribution QPF
and the possibility of isolated stronger storms producing locally
high rainfall totals must be considered. Median QPF values
generally sit between 3-4" south of the I-10 corridor between
Saturday morning and Monday night, with locations along and north
of I-10 between 1-3"...with 75th percentile values of up to 6"
near the coast standing out in the latest blend. As such, WPC
maintains a Marginal to Slight risk for excessive rainfall for
areas south of the I-10 corridor through Tuesday morning. Looking
into next week, the approach of a weak midlevel trough from the
NW keeps rain chances in the forecast through Wednesday (and
likely beyond) with moisture availability remaining elevated.
That being said, it`s too early to pinpoint the exact evolution of
this feature.
With widespread cloud cover and elevated rainfall chances in the
forecast, daily high temperatures will remain confined to the
upper 80s/low 90s for most of the area while overnight lows
continue to sit in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While this presents
a lower heat stress risk than that of many recent days, it`s still
important to remain cognizant of the signs of heat illness if you
plan to be spending time outdoors over the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Upper level disturbance moving across the SE TX region will
result in several rounds of SH/TS today and Fr. Look for iso
SH/TS this morning, followed by sct/num SH/TS in the afternoon to
evening hrs. A lull in activity can be expected late evening and
early tonight, but another round of storms is expected to move
across the coastal and SE portions during the overnight to early
morning hrs. Overall, the highest chances for both days are along
the coast and SE sections of the region with lower chances to the
NW. Some storms will be accompanied by strong gusty winds, and
reduced vis/cigs due to heavy rainfall.
Cigs may be bouncing between MVFR to VFR throughout the TAF
period. Light VRB this morning, becoming E-SE in the afternoon,
and back to light and VRB tonight.
Cotto(24)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue for the foreseeable
future, with wave heights remaining near or below 3 feet. Daily
chances of showers and storms will peak in the morning to early
afternoon, with any stronger storms having the potential to
produce a brief period of locally higher winds and seas. Rain
chances remain elevated through at least the middle of next week
thanks to the continued presence of a weak low pressure system
over the Central Gulf.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 73 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
Houston (IAH) 87 75 88 76 / 70 50 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 79 / 80 70 90 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Cady
Happy birthday!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 12:08 am As of midnight im officially 24! Heres to another year of tracking and discussing crazy weather events on this forum!
David Paul said we were gonna wake-up to a wet and soggy commute 
