August 2024
92 and feels like 104 here. A lot better than the past few days.
Every time I see Team #Neversummer, It kills me.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 23, 2024 2:12 pm Yep, still feels like microwaved whale taint outside.
Hot but better than yesterday. A stray shower moved through. Survive and advance.
Every time I water, I keep telling my plants & fruit trees, “hang on little buddy. Just a few more weeks.”
Then, they’ll start to go dormant. Boo
Then, they’ll start to go dormant. Boo
Well this is crappy. Had this weekend circled for quite awhile. Been hearing all about the ridge moving away and daily chances of rain ramping up yesterday.
Got nothing yesterday and now I have no rain in the forecast until Monday. My plants are screaming at me “but you promised!!”
I have to water everything again today. The ground is dry again so even the lawn dries out after a day.
Got nothing yesterday and now I have no rain in the forecast until Monday. My plants are screaming at me “but you promised!!”
I have to water everything again today. The ground is dry again so even the lawn dries out after a day.
Beginning Tuesday I think rain chances start to ramp us. Most places should get 1-2” over the next 10 days.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 8:19 am Well this is crappy. Had this weekend circled for quite awhile. Been hearing all about the ridge moving away and daily chances of rain ramping up yesterday.
Got nothing yesterday and now I have no rain in the forecast until Monday. My plants are screaming at me “but you promised!!”
I have to water everything again today. The ground is dry again so even the lawn dries out after a day.
I don’t believe it.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Changes are coming folks, just have to be patient, very active pattern on all model guidance , especially the euro
Rough day for me. Boerne lost the U.S. championship (mainly cuz they had 3 pitchers get hurt) and the Astros blew another late inning lead for the second game in a row. Sucks 
DPs were in the 60s today and the high temp did not hit 100°F. A small miracle.
The week ahead finally looks like normal late August weather in the Brazos Valley. Highs in the mid 90s and a 20-30% chance of rain starting on Monday.
The week ahead finally looks like normal late August weather in the Brazos Valley. Highs in the mid 90s and a 20-30% chance of rain starting on Monday.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Frontal passage looks to be around the 2nd or so of september, i can see several days with highs in the mid-upper 80’s, this will be a welcome change of pace
How about them Jackets?
Haynes King had a clutch 2nd half.
Haynes King had a clutch 2nd half.
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ICON is stirring up some home brew in the distant forecast.
I was not too happy. We could’ve swept them. Hopefully Astros peak this year during the playoffs. Things steadily coming together for them.
Clouds moving in from the gulf, that high pressure is acting like Singleton…. “Not so fast.”
It was humid this morning but DPs are back in the mid 60s now. An almost pleasant evening!
So...I think we've reached a forecast inflection point with decreasing temps. and increasing chance of showers. The scattered variety. In other words, normal summer weather in North Carolina. Even north Florida.
So...I think we've reached a forecast inflection point with decreasing temps. and increasing chance of showers. The scattered variety. In other words, normal summer weather in North Carolina. Even north Florida.
The retrograde cutoff low has arrived in the Gulf...showers will be on the increase tomorrow. Unsettled weather continues which the trough meanders toward the Big Bend. Rainfall should be highest toward the Gulf but the trof will drag moisture and showers north behind it.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Activity associated with the rather well-defined mid/upper system has
remained over mostly the southern/coastal portions of the CWA, so far
today. As this feature moves closer and moisture levels begin to rise
(back to around 2"), shower/thunderstorm coverage should be more wide-
spread by tomorrow. All of this activity will be generally diurnal in
nature (today and tomorrow), so, we`ll see things quiet down with sun-
set. Lows tonight (as well as tomorrow night) will range from the mid
to upper 70s...around 80 at the coast. The increased clouds/POPs will
keep highs tomorrow in the lower 90s...with heat index values well be-
low Advisory criteria.
As for these rain chances, there are indications that the first round
could move into SE TX as early as overnight, in particular near/along
the coast. Development is then progged to be more scattered...spread-
ing north from late Mon morning through the afternoon hours. Rainfall
totals tomorrow should average from one tenth to one quarter inch but
some isolated spots along the coast could see up to 0.5 to 1.5 inches
of rain through Mon night. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Somewhat unsettled weather is anticipated for a good part of the
week and into the weekend with chances of showers and
thunderstorms on a daily basis.
Inverted mid level trof in scntl Tx at the beginning of the period
will slowly track toward the Big Bend area and West Tx Wed-Thurs.
However, a lingering weakness in the flow should still be left
behind across the w/nw Gulf. With PW`s in the 1.9-2.5" range in
place (highest Wed into the weekend), we`d look for a pattern of
mainly diurnally driven shra/tstm each day - with precip coverage
increasing offshore late at night eventually expanding inland during
the morning and afternoon hours. Highest totals should be situated
from the I-10 corridor southward with average accumulations probably
somewhere in the 2-4" range in days 3-7. Considering the lack of
forcing and/or boundaries to work off of, this rain should mostly be
considered beneficial since it`ll be spread out over several days.
But with somewhat high PW`s in place, one would always need to be
cognizant of localized higher totals or street flooding with any
high rain rates in the tropical airmass. 47
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Activity associated with the rather well-defined mid/upper system has
remained over mostly the southern/coastal portions of the CWA, so far
today. As this feature moves closer and moisture levels begin to rise
(back to around 2"), shower/thunderstorm coverage should be more wide-
spread by tomorrow. All of this activity will be generally diurnal in
nature (today and tomorrow), so, we`ll see things quiet down with sun-
set. Lows tonight (as well as tomorrow night) will range from the mid
to upper 70s...around 80 at the coast. The increased clouds/POPs will
keep highs tomorrow in the lower 90s...with heat index values well be-
low Advisory criteria.
As for these rain chances, there are indications that the first round
could move into SE TX as early as overnight, in particular near/along
the coast. Development is then progged to be more scattered...spread-
ing north from late Mon morning through the afternoon hours. Rainfall
totals tomorrow should average from one tenth to one quarter inch but
some isolated spots along the coast could see up to 0.5 to 1.5 inches
of rain through Mon night. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Somewhat unsettled weather is anticipated for a good part of the
week and into the weekend with chances of showers and
thunderstorms on a daily basis.
Inverted mid level trof in scntl Tx at the beginning of the period
will slowly track toward the Big Bend area and West Tx Wed-Thurs.
However, a lingering weakness in the flow should still be left
behind across the w/nw Gulf. With PW`s in the 1.9-2.5" range in
place (highest Wed into the weekend), we`d look for a pattern of
mainly diurnally driven shra/tstm each day - with precip coverage
increasing offshore late at night eventually expanding inland during
the morning and afternoon hours. Highest totals should be situated
from the I-10 corridor southward with average accumulations probably
somewhere in the 2-4" range in days 3-7. Considering the lack of
forcing and/or boundaries to work off of, this rain should mostly be
considered beneficial since it`ll be spread out over several days.
But with somewhat high PW`s in place, one would always need to be
cognizant of localized higher totals or street flooding with any
high rain rates in the tropical airmass. 47
&&
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
320
FXUS64 KHGX 260812
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
The mid to upper level low mentioned over the last few days has
finally moved into our coastal waters early this morning and is
nicely depicted in the GOES 16 water vapor imagery. The low is
expected to continue westward into the mid and upper Texas coasts
through the rest of the morning hours and is expected to move into
the central and western portions of Texas later today and meander
over this region through Tuesday. This will allow for a few rounds
of showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas throughout the
short term period.
A few of the associated storms currently firing up over the Gulf
waters will continue to move into our coastal locations from time to
time early this morning. Activity is expected to increase and expand
northward later in the morning and early afternoon as fairly strong
PVA associated to the low enhances storm development. Although we
are still expecting periods of showers and storms late afternoon to
evening, coverage could be less given that the environment may be
worked over by then. We would see a brief lull in activity early
tonight, although the southern counties may still have some isolated
storms pass through on occasion.
A similar weather pattern is anticipated on Tuesday, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the coastal locations early in the
morning hours, followed by scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms during the mid morning and afternoon hours. The
one difference is that activity is expected to be more confined
towards the areas near and south of I-10. Rain chances will decrease
during the evening and early night hours.
The rainfall and cloud coverage will allow for widespread highs in
the low 90s today and Tuesday. The lows will remain in the mid to
upper 70s for much of the inland portions and in the upper 70s to
low 80s along the coasts.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with daily
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While the larger
upper level low will have moved to the west by Wednesday, there will
shortwaves moving up the Gulf Coast between that low and a high
pressure over Appalachia. Not only will we have these disturbances
aloft to help support daily chances of showers and storms, there
will be plenty of moisture in place to help fuel them with PWATs in
the 2-2.4" range all week long. The shower and thunderstorm activity
will peak during the late morning through the afternoon thanks to
daytime heating with areas along the coast likely seeing higher
coverage thanks to the seabreeze. Activity wanes in the evening, but
picks up off shore during the overnight hours - then repeat daily.
Rainfall totals Wednesday through the weekend is looking to be up to
0.25-1" north of I-10, then 1-3" south of I-10 towards the coast
with locally higher amounts possible near any isolated heavier
downpours. We have been in quite the stretch of little to no
rainfall and above average temperatures, so the rainfall this week
will be fairly beneficial. The 1 and 3 hour FFG is around 4 to 6
inches, so the likelihood of any significant flooding is fairly low
this week - but could see some minor ponding in areas of poor
drainage.
Increased cloud coverage and precipitation will lead to high
temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s for much of the area
through the weekend (even only getting into the upper 80s along the
coast). Overnight conditions will continue to be mild and muggy with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area and low
80s along the coast and Houston Metro.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
SHRA/TSRA activity is forming near the coast a little earlier than
indicated in the previous update. Therefore, we have adjusted TS
mention in the TAFs about 2-4 hours earlier for the terminals from
IAH down to the coast. Most of the SHRA/TSRA activity is expected
to occur in the morning and early afternoon hours. SHRA/TSRA
expected to be more widely scattered for areas farther north.
Vis/cig should mostly be VFR. However, we cannot rule out periods
of MVFR during times of SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through
the weekend with low seas around 2 to 4ft. There will be the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms all week long with coverage
highest during the overnight to early morning hours. Winds and seas
will become elevated near any isolated stronger storms.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 93 75 / 40 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 92 77 93 78 / 70 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 80 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Reilly
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 260812
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
The mid to upper level low mentioned over the last few days has
finally moved into our coastal waters early this morning and is
nicely depicted in the GOES 16 water vapor imagery. The low is
expected to continue westward into the mid and upper Texas coasts
through the rest of the morning hours and is expected to move into
the central and western portions of Texas later today and meander
over this region through Tuesday. This will allow for a few rounds
of showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas throughout the
short term period.
A few of the associated storms currently firing up over the Gulf
waters will continue to move into our coastal locations from time to
time early this morning. Activity is expected to increase and expand
northward later in the morning and early afternoon as fairly strong
PVA associated to the low enhances storm development. Although we
are still expecting periods of showers and storms late afternoon to
evening, coverage could be less given that the environment may be
worked over by then. We would see a brief lull in activity early
tonight, although the southern counties may still have some isolated
storms pass through on occasion.
A similar weather pattern is anticipated on Tuesday, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the coastal locations early in the
morning hours, followed by scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms during the mid morning and afternoon hours. The
one difference is that activity is expected to be more confined
towards the areas near and south of I-10. Rain chances will decrease
during the evening and early night hours.
The rainfall and cloud coverage will allow for widespread highs in
the low 90s today and Tuesday. The lows will remain in the mid to
upper 70s for much of the inland portions and in the upper 70s to
low 80s along the coasts.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with daily
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While the larger
upper level low will have moved to the west by Wednesday, there will
shortwaves moving up the Gulf Coast between that low and a high
pressure over Appalachia. Not only will we have these disturbances
aloft to help support daily chances of showers and storms, there
will be plenty of moisture in place to help fuel them with PWATs in
the 2-2.4" range all week long. The shower and thunderstorm activity
will peak during the late morning through the afternoon thanks to
daytime heating with areas along the coast likely seeing higher
coverage thanks to the seabreeze. Activity wanes in the evening, but
picks up off shore during the overnight hours - then repeat daily.
Rainfall totals Wednesday through the weekend is looking to be up to
0.25-1" north of I-10, then 1-3" south of I-10 towards the coast
with locally higher amounts possible near any isolated heavier
downpours. We have been in quite the stretch of little to no
rainfall and above average temperatures, so the rainfall this week
will be fairly beneficial. The 1 and 3 hour FFG is around 4 to 6
inches, so the likelihood of any significant flooding is fairly low
this week - but could see some minor ponding in areas of poor
drainage.
Increased cloud coverage and precipitation will lead to high
temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s for much of the area
through the weekend (even only getting into the upper 80s along the
coast). Overnight conditions will continue to be mild and muggy with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area and low
80s along the coast and Houston Metro.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
SHRA/TSRA activity is forming near the coast a little earlier than
indicated in the previous update. Therefore, we have adjusted TS
mention in the TAFs about 2-4 hours earlier for the terminals from
IAH down to the coast. Most of the SHRA/TSRA activity is expected
to occur in the morning and early afternoon hours. SHRA/TSRA
expected to be more widely scattered for areas farther north.
Vis/cig should mostly be VFR. However, we cannot rule out periods
of MVFR during times of SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through
the weekend with low seas around 2 to 4ft. There will be the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms all week long with coverage
highest during the overnight to early morning hours. Winds and seas
will become elevated near any isolated stronger storms.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 93 75 / 40 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 92 77 93 78 / 70 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 80 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Reilly
MARINE...Fowler
Cleaned out the pine needles from the rain gauge…