August 2024

[Cpv17]

There's enough support for a stalled front near the beginning of September across Ensembles and models. Even TWC picked it up. Chance of rain next week - modest: 30%

I’m counting on snow in League City

That would take a local cocaine drug bust.

Less than 3 days to college freakin' football...there's my will to live.

The Yellow Jackets are going to shock the world against F$U in Dublin!

Outta all the sports out there, college football is definitely my favorite. Nothing tops it.

[Pas_Bon]

dice roller dnd 5e

[tireman4]

628
FXUS64 KHGX 221149
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

1000-500mb thicknesses for today are on a slight downward trend
compared to yesterday. 850mb high pressure centered over SE Texas at
present will gradually weaken during the day today. Lowering
heights, the weakening of the ridge, and an area of low pressure
approaching from the Gulf will create a transition from the
dreadfully hot weather that has been experienced this month to a
slightly cooler and wetter weather pattern beginning Friday. PWAT
values reflect a decent amount of moisture over SE Texas (2.0-2.2")
through today, decreasing slightly on Friday (1.9-2.1"). Despite
this abundant moisture, we will have to wait one more day for any
decent shot at rain. Any showers and thunderstorms today will likely
be confined to the coastal areas in association with the sea breeze.

Unfortunately...this means yet another day of hot and humid weather.
Go ahead and mark the calendar for Friday to be hot and humid as
well...Although, conditions on Friday will be *slightly*
cooler...meaning most of the area should stay out of the triple
digits with daytime highs, and heat indices continue to come in
below the Advisory criteria (we know y`all are tired of the daily
alerts that it is hot...we would love to have a break from them as
well...).

Digging a little deeper into Friday, the center of this persistent
and pesky ridge will be over the northern part of the state and will
provide a slight reprieve to the heat, as mentioned in the previous
paragraph. In addition to this, 500mb analysis shows PVA signatures
rotating around the periphery of the ridge and into SE Texas on
Friday. Finally, there is an area of low pressure approaching SE
Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. With the movement of high pressure,
increase in PVA, and this Gulf feature approaching, we should see an
uptick in rain chances for Friday.

Continue to be mindful of the heat today and Friday. A Heat Advisory
is in effect for today as HI values will be in the 105-112F range.
Some locations may reach above 113F for a brief period of time this
afternoon. It is very important to make the proper adjustments to
keep yourself, loved ones, and pets safe from the heat. Significant
impacts from heat can occur faster than you expect. If you plan to
spend time or work outdoors, wear lightweight and loose fitting
clothing, limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening,
stay out of the sun, and drink plenty of fluids. NEVER leave
children or pets in unattended vehicles. Remember, the ground will
be too hot for your pets` paws during the daytime.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Over the weekend, the upper-level high pressure will continue to
move northwards into the Central Plains allowing for increasing
moisture into SE Texas. PWATs rise to around 1.7-2" leading to
partly cloudy skies and a chance for afternoon showers and storms
(though the best chance for precipitation will be along the coast
with the sea breeze). Between the increased cloud cover and falling
heights, temperatures will be lower compared to the heat we`ve been
experiencing this week. High temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 90s over the weekend with heat indices still near 100-105
degrees. Hot, but not excessively hot. Despite the decrease in
daytime temperatures, overnight lows will still be in the mid 70s to
low 80s.

A weak upper-level low, cutoff from a larger low in New England,
will slide along the base of ridge moving through the northern Gulf
over the weekend and into next week. The low will end up slowing
down and stalling over East/Central Texas through the first halve of
next week. The unsettled conditions aloft will cause increased rain
chances Sunday through Wednesday again with higher chances along the
coast. At this time, the rainfall will be hit-or-miss with some
localized quick downpours of 0.5 to 1+ inches. Daytime temperatures
continue to trend cooler through next week thanks to the increased
coverage of showers/storms with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Light and variable winds become light out of the SE this
afternoon. Strong TS due E of LBX, producing frequent lightning,
heavy downpours, and potentially small hail. Isolated activity
expected through the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise,
VFR prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Light winds and low winds will prevail through the weekend. Rain
chances increase Friday morning and through the weekend with the
highest coverage of storms likely during the overnight and early
morning hours. By the start of next week, light to moderate easterly
flow will prevail with continued daily rain chances.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 78 98 74 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 100 80 97 78 / 10 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 97 90 93 83 / 10 0 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

Models have been sniffing the retrograde low out for awhile.

This is the news I've wanted to see:

The low will end up slowing down and stalling over East/Central Texas through the first halve of
next week. The unsettled conditions aloft will cause increased rain
chances Sunday through Wednesday again with higher chances along the
coast. At this time, the rainfall will be hit-or-miss with some
localized quick downpours of 0.5 to 1+ inches.

[jasons2k]

Lucy says “Hi!”

[Cromagnum]

We love Jeff Lindner and quite a few others for Harris County forecast discussions, but can anybody namedrop some good mets in the Austin area? Gotta recalibrate and relearn.

[Cpv17]

We love Jeff Lindner and quite a few others for Harris County forecast discussions, but can anybody namedrop some good mets in the Austin area? Gotta recalibrate and relearn.

That’s probably a question that’ll be better answered on Storm2K.

[DoctorMu]

Waxahachie below DFW has an iconic little downtown and nearby Granbury/Glen Rose area has interesting terrain.

Just before we moved here, I was working in downtown Waxahachie for about a year. Very cool downtown and historic district. That town would be a great candidate for an "Old Town" show type of redo.

Waxahachie also happens to have the closest Braum's Ice Cream & Restaurant. If you have not yet discovered Braum's....you must. Trust me.

I was blessed with a fast metabolism because in High School, we had one right next to the Eckerd Express Photo I worked at. I would frequently have a cheeseburger meal for lunch followed by a banana fudge sundae for dessert. Even the fries were fantastic! Too bad they likely won't come down here. They have this rule similar to In-N-Out where their trucks will only go so far away from their Oklahoma dairy. By the way, I tried In-N-Out in The Woodlands the other day for the first time and I'll just say I'm in no hurry to go back.

Weather-related - they cancelled after school tennis practice today at the high school due to the heat advisory. The are thankfully using new guidance this year and taking extra precautions. My run this morning was hot!!

We've stopped at the Braum's either in Hillsborough (or Corsicana - sometimes we take I-45, sometimes I-35) coming back from Minnesota a few years ago. I remember it was as hot as today - the ice cream sundaes were perfect.

I bought our 700h Cub Cadet lawnmower with a 190cc Honda engine in Waxahachie. Stopped by a cantina downtown. It's absolutely iconic. If I were a film maker, I'd absolutely use the town as a locale.

That Honda engine is a BEAST. It cuts through tall, wet grass like buttah.

[tireman4]

We love Jeff Lindner and quite a few others for Harris County forecast discussions, but can anybody namedrop some good mets in the Austin area? Gotta recalibrate and relearn.

Portastorm should know. It has been a long while since he visited here. He is a longtime Austin resident.

[user:null]

Latest forecasts for a wetter pattern change starting this weekend into next week are still on track. Hopefully totals are good, so as to make the month more salvageable.

[user:null]

Lucy says “Hi!”

The action was in the Sugar Land area — some isolated, but rather good cells. The NWS airport site is listed as .11 inches, but many lucky spots probably got much more (but don't know of any PWS in the area).

[user:null]

Geographically and “scenery wise” most of SE Texas is pretty boring. It’s mostly flat and what lakes and rivers we do have around here tend to be muddy and stinky in the summer. I could write a whole page on the brown beaches, brown surf, and air quality. It is what it is

I’ve never been to FL. I’ve only been to beaches in Texas and they’re so awful I don’t even waste my time going anymore. Even South Padre Island was gross. It’s probably been 10 years since I’ve last gone. The only time I’ll go down to the coast is to go fishing. And personally, I have no clue how some people even get into the nasty water of the rivers and beaches around here. That’s a hard pass for me.

To be honest, has there actually been any studies regarding whether the water quality is any worse, smellier, etc in SE Texas (as well as some other areas of the state)? Or is it merely just associations stemming from aesthetics and sensational headlines?

That said, the water clarity in Texas beaches has actually been good so far this August: not just SPI, but even areas like Matagorda, Surfside, and Galveston. There is a southerly current pulse that comes from Mexico, and it's strongest during the summer — and saltwater is denser than freshwater, so any river sediment that affects Gulf water clarity gets pushed away in those pulses (similar to shallow cold fronts undercutting warm air as a "wedge").

[Pas_Bon]

If we don’t get any rain in League City soon, I’m going to cry. It’s all I can do to simply water enough to keep my landscaping alive.

[Stratton20]

could be quite the stormy pattern ahead starting in a few days, GFS has a stalled front boundary that brings days of widespread rain showers to the whole state

[tireman4]

423
FXUS64 KHGX 231136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the first time in several days, we have no Heat headlines in
effect for SE Texas. It will still get hot today, and folks should
still use heat safety practices, but it won`t be as miserable as
it has been this week. High temperatures will rise into the low
90s along the coast, and then mid to upper 90s along and north of
I-10. Heat indices will still be rising into the triple digits,
but more like 100 to 105 degrees instead of the 110+ we were
seeing just a couple of days ago. Similar high temperatures and
heat indices are expected on Saturday. Overnight lows tonight and
Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 70s for much of the
area with low 80s along the immediate coast.

These lower temperatures are thanks to the upper level high
pressure beginning to slide to the north causing height falls
along the Gulf coast and opening us up to allow some weak short
waves to push into the area. The first of these short waves will
drop down into our area later today causing isolated showers and
storms to pop-up across the area with coverage peaking in the
afternoon thanks to daytime heating. PWATs are around 2", so there
is gonna be plenty of moisture to help cause some localized
downpours for where these hit- or-miss storms develop. Activity
dies down this evening, but some additional storms along the coast
will be possible Saturday morning and then along the seabreeze
during the afternoon. More rain chances are on the way, but more
on that in the long term below.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

On Sunday, a mid to upper level low moving eastward across the
Northern Gulf of Mexico, will make its way into the Mid-Upper
Texas Coast Sunday into Monday. This feature is expected to bring
in periods of showers and thunderstorms, in particular over areas
along and south of I-10. Tuesday into Wednesday, this feature
will meander over Texas and allow for a typical summertime
weather pattern across Southeast Texas. We can expect areas of
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters and coastal
locations during the nighttime and morning hours followed by
showers and thunderstorms firing up further inland, especially
near and along the sea breeze in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Some model inconsistency is present for when the mid to
upper level low (or trough by this point) departs to the east
northeast on Thursday. I will continue to carry isolated to
scattered chances of rain for Thursday on this issuance, however,
if the trough departs Texas a little faster than what is currently
on the forecast, then high pressure could build quick enough to
limit rain development over our area.

With respect to temperatures, highs will stay in the mid 90s
inland and in the low 90s along the coast. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s inland and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
coast. Heat indices will range between 101-107 deg F. Although
these numbers are not as high as what we have experienced this
week, these temperatures could still result in heat impacts.
Please continue to practice heat safety. If you plan to spend
time or work outdoors, wear lightweight and loose fitting
clothing, limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening,
stay out of the sun, and drink plenty of fluids. NEVER leave
children or pets in unattended vehicles. Remember, if the ground
is too hot for your hands, then it is too hot for your pets` paws.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with southeasterly winds around
5 to 10kt through the period. There will be some showers through
afternoon with CLL and UTS having the greatest chance of seeing an
isolated thunderstorm between 19 and 00z. Any storms that develop
will dissipate by sunset.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Light winds and seas of 3 feet or less are expected during the
next several days. Rain chances will be on the rise early next
week and continue well in to the mid week timeframe. Some storms
could briefly result in gusty winds and locally higher seas.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 95 74 / 40 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 40 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 / 20 20 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[tireman4]

Eric Berger 08 23 24

[davidiowx]

Lucy says “Hi!”

The action was in the Sugar Land area — some isolated, but rather good cells. The NWS airport site is listed as .11 inches, but many lucky spots probably got much more (but don't know of any PWS in the area).

Yea we lucked out over here! Had almost a 1/2" yesterday late afternoon at my house.

[jasons2k]

94 at 11am here already.

I don’t think today will be any cooler here as advertised…

[Rip76]

Yeah these forecasts lately seem rather busty.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, still feels like microwaved whale taint outside.