.ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND CULEBRA...
11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13
Location: 16.9°N 62.6°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Sea surface temperatures near Ernesto in the northeastern Caribbean
Sea are very warm--on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius--and
vertical shear in the atmosphere is relatively light. Combined
with the thought that Ernesto is developing an inner core, these
ingredients favor quick strengthening over the next day or so.
SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models indicate that Ernesto
could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours, and
several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are notably high.
As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast is more aggressive
than the previous forecast, and brings Ernesto to hurricane
strength by 24 hours when the center is north of Puerto Rico.
Because there is some risk of the storm becoming a hurricane before
that time, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. After moving north of Puerto Rico,
additional strengthening is likely, and the NHC forecast is near the
high end of the guidance. Ernesto is also likely to grow in size
while over the western Atlantic, and that is reflected in the
official forecast.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Ernesto getting together while moving through the islands, an eventual threat to Bermuda
By Matt Lanza on August 13, 2024
Headlines
Ernesto is moving through the northeast Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.
It may strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches or passes the Virgin Islands and east of Puerto Rico.
Impacts to Puerto Rico will be mainly heavy rain and flooding on the south and east sides of the island.
Impacts could be a bit stronger for the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra.
Ernesto will then possibly take aim at Bermuda heading toward the weekend.
Ernesto making an effort to intensify
Tropical Storm Ernesto is working through the far northeast Caribbean this afternoon, strengthening in the process. Currently, Ernesto has 50 mph winds and is located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis.
Ernesto wiggling its way toward the Virgin Islands this afternoon
Over the next 12 to 24 hours, Ernesto is going to track west northwest toward the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the US & British Virgin Islands, as well as Culebra and Vieques. Puerto Rico remains under a Tropical Storm Warning, as are a number of other islands in the Leewards. Given the atmospheric conditions surrounding Ernesto, it's possible that this could become a hurricane in the next 18 to 24 hours as it approaches and passes the islands east of Puerto Rico. By tomorrow afternoon. Ernesto will be north of the islands and conditions will improve.
In terms of impacts, the main threat is probably still rainfall.
Heavy rainfall will impact Puerto Rico and nearby islands to the east, with upwards of 8 inches and flash flooding a good possibility.
Flooding is a good bet on parts of Puerto Rico, mainly on the south and east coasts of the island. Additional heavy rain may impact the US Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra. Lesser heavy rains will impact the British Virgin Islands and other portions of the northeast Caribbean. Obviously, wind will be a bit of an issue, especially north and east of where the center tracks, hence the hurricane watches for the islands just east of Puerto Rico. And rough marine conditions will continue in the northeast Caribbean through tomorrow.
Bermuda bound?
Beyond the Caribbean, Ernesto is likely to turn northwest and then northward, steering clear of the Turks and Caicos Islands, but tracking toward Bermuda. The threat to Bermuda is a potentially serious one. We can examine that closer in the days ahead, but at this point, suffice to say model agreement is good on a track that brings Ernesto very near Bermuda as a hurricane in about 4 or 5 days.
Ernesto is likely to be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, with uncertainty in the exact track taking over beyond that point.
There are some questions as to how strong Ernesto will get as it tracks toward Bermuda, with the current official forecast keeping it just shy of major hurricane intensity. Modeling has backed off a bit on the high end of intensity as well, but there is always a chance that Ernesto could outpace model forecasts in terms of intensity in the next few days. So for folks in Bermuda, it's probably a good time to start reviewing your hurricane plans with Ernesto sending a pretty clear message this far in advance.
Beyond Bermuda, there are questions as to exactly how Ernesto is steered which could have implications for Atlantic Canada in time. We'll review that in more details as we get into tomorrow and Thursday.
The rest of the tropics are quiet with no threats noted.
Ernesto getting together while moving through the islands, an eventual threat to Bermuda
By Matt Lanza on August 13, 2024
Headlines
Ernesto is moving through the northeast Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.
It may strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches or passes the Virgin Islands and east of Puerto Rico.
Impacts to Puerto Rico will be mainly heavy rain and flooding on the south and east sides of the island.
Impacts could be a bit stronger for the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra.
Ernesto will then possibly take aim at Bermuda heading toward the weekend.
Ernesto making an effort to intensify
Tropical Storm Ernesto is working through the far northeast Caribbean this afternoon, strengthening in the process. Currently, Ernesto has 50 mph winds and is located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis.
Ernesto wiggling its way toward the Virgin Islands this afternoon
Over the next 12 to 24 hours, Ernesto is going to track west northwest toward the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the US & British Virgin Islands, as well as Culebra and Vieques. Puerto Rico remains under a Tropical Storm Warning, as are a number of other islands in the Leewards. Given the atmospheric conditions surrounding Ernesto, it's possible that this could become a hurricane in the next 18 to 24 hours as it approaches and passes the islands east of Puerto Rico. By tomorrow afternoon. Ernesto will be north of the islands and conditions will improve.
In terms of impacts, the main threat is probably still rainfall.
Heavy rainfall will impact Puerto Rico and nearby islands to the east, with upwards of 8 inches and flash flooding a good possibility.
Flooding is a good bet on parts of Puerto Rico, mainly on the south and east coasts of the island. Additional heavy rain may impact the US Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra. Lesser heavy rains will impact the British Virgin Islands and other portions of the northeast Caribbean. Obviously, wind will be a bit of an issue, especially north and east of where the center tracks, hence the hurricane watches for the islands just east of Puerto Rico. And rough marine conditions will continue in the northeast Caribbean through tomorrow.
Bermuda bound?
Beyond the Caribbean, Ernesto is likely to turn northwest and then northward, steering clear of the Turks and Caicos Islands, but tracking toward Bermuda. The threat to Bermuda is a potentially serious one. We can examine that closer in the days ahead, but at this point, suffice to say model agreement is good on a track that brings Ernesto very near Bermuda as a hurricane in about 4 or 5 days.
Ernesto is likely to be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, with uncertainty in the exact track taking over beyond that point.
There are some questions as to how strong Ernesto will get as it tracks toward Bermuda, with the current official forecast keeping it just shy of major hurricane intensity. Modeling has backed off a bit on the high end of intensity as well, but there is always a chance that Ernesto could outpace model forecasts in terms of intensity in the next few days. So for folks in Bermuda, it's probably a good time to start reviewing your hurricane plans with Ernesto sending a pretty clear message this far in advance.
Beyond Bermuda, there are questions as to exactly how Ernesto is steered which could have implications for Atlantic Canada in time. We'll review that in more details as we get into tomorrow and Thursday.
The rest of the tropics are quiet with no threats noted.
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Ernesto, now a hurricane pulls away toward Bermuda while dousing Puerto Rico with flooding rain
By Matt Lanza on August 14, 2024
Headlines
Hurricane Ernesto delivering torrential rain and flooding to Puerto Rico.
Ernesto will continue to pull away north of the Caribbean, relaxing impacts there.
The hurricane will track toward Bermuda for late week and this weekend, coming very close and likely delivering considerable impacts there.
Beyond Bermuda, it appears there is an increasing risk for a direct impact in the Canadian Maritimes next week.
Hurricane Ernesto chugging away from the Caribbean
After moving through the Virgin Islands and to the north of Puerto Rico, Ernesto has become a hurricane today with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, the third hurricane of the season. While the hurricane winds will remain comfortably north of the Caribbean islands, heavy rainfall remains a big problem in Puerto Rico, which is just getting dumped on today in the wake of Ernesto.
Heavy, flooding rains continue on Puerto Rico with multiple flash flood warnings in effect across the island.
Upwards of a dozen flash flood warnings are in effect on the island, covering just about every corner. Rain totals are estimated around 8 to 10 inches in the south-central portion of Puerto Rico in the last 24 hours, with another 3 to 6 inches possible before all is said and done.
Rainfall estimates have approached 9 to 10 inches in southern Puerto Rico.
Considerable flash flooding and localized mudslides will remain a threat into late afternoon and evening in Puerto Rico and to a lesser extent the Virgin Islands.
Meanwhile, Ernesto is moving northwest at 16 mph, hauling its way away from the Caribbean. The next question will become how close it gets to Bermuda on Saturday. Ernesto split the gap between two high pressure centers over the Deep South and Atlantic Ocean, and it will follow that gap into a trough off the East Coast. The trouble starts to happen on Friday as Ernesto is moving northeast toward Bermuda. The trough is going to exit the picture, likely leaving Ernesto behind.
Ernesto gets left behind by the trough that exits without it. This will have implications for both Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
Ernesto will begin to slow down at this point, since it will lose the "pull" of the trough. This should allow it to lash Bermuda with heavy rain and gusty winds. Ernesto may be a major hurricane at this point, or at least close to it, so it will probably deliver some pretty meaningful impacts to the island, of course depending on exactly how close it comes.
Ernesto may then get "pulled" back to the northwest a bit by an approaching trough from the Great Lakes. It's not going to make a hard left into the U.S. East Coast, but this will delay its exit out to sea. At the least, rough surf and rip currents will likely become an issue this weekend and next week on the East Coast. From a land impact perspective, this erratic movement has implications for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Instead of exiting into the open Atlantic, the jog back north or northwest could allow Ernesto to eventually smack into Atlantic Canada next week. The exact details and impacts of this are TBD, but suffice to say, I would be watching this closely in the Maritimes.
More to come on this. Meanwhile, the Atlantic continues to look as if a suppressed background state will halt tropical development risk for the next 7 to 10 days behind Ernesto. No additional storms are expected through next week.
Ernesto, now a hurricane pulls away toward Bermuda while dousing Puerto Rico with flooding rain
By Matt Lanza on August 14, 2024
Headlines
Hurricane Ernesto delivering torrential rain and flooding to Puerto Rico.
Ernesto will continue to pull away north of the Caribbean, relaxing impacts there.
The hurricane will track toward Bermuda for late week and this weekend, coming very close and likely delivering considerable impacts there.
Beyond Bermuda, it appears there is an increasing risk for a direct impact in the Canadian Maritimes next week.
Hurricane Ernesto chugging away from the Caribbean
After moving through the Virgin Islands and to the north of Puerto Rico, Ernesto has become a hurricane today with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, the third hurricane of the season. While the hurricane winds will remain comfortably north of the Caribbean islands, heavy rainfall remains a big problem in Puerto Rico, which is just getting dumped on today in the wake of Ernesto.
Heavy, flooding rains continue on Puerto Rico with multiple flash flood warnings in effect across the island.
Upwards of a dozen flash flood warnings are in effect on the island, covering just about every corner. Rain totals are estimated around 8 to 10 inches in the south-central portion of Puerto Rico in the last 24 hours, with another 3 to 6 inches possible before all is said and done.
Rainfall estimates have approached 9 to 10 inches in southern Puerto Rico.
Considerable flash flooding and localized mudslides will remain a threat into late afternoon and evening in Puerto Rico and to a lesser extent the Virgin Islands.
Meanwhile, Ernesto is moving northwest at 16 mph, hauling its way away from the Caribbean. The next question will become how close it gets to Bermuda on Saturday. Ernesto split the gap between two high pressure centers over the Deep South and Atlantic Ocean, and it will follow that gap into a trough off the East Coast. The trouble starts to happen on Friday as Ernesto is moving northeast toward Bermuda. The trough is going to exit the picture, likely leaving Ernesto behind.
Ernesto gets left behind by the trough that exits without it. This will have implications for both Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
Ernesto will begin to slow down at this point, since it will lose the "pull" of the trough. This should allow it to lash Bermuda with heavy rain and gusty winds. Ernesto may be a major hurricane at this point, or at least close to it, so it will probably deliver some pretty meaningful impacts to the island, of course depending on exactly how close it comes.
Ernesto may then get "pulled" back to the northwest a bit by an approaching trough from the Great Lakes. It's not going to make a hard left into the U.S. East Coast, but this will delay its exit out to sea. At the least, rough surf and rip currents will likely become an issue this weekend and next week on the East Coast. From a land impact perspective, this erratic movement has implications for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Instead of exiting into the open Atlantic, the jog back north or northwest could allow Ernesto to eventually smack into Atlantic Canada next week. The exact details and impacts of this are TBD, but suffice to say, I would be watching this closely in the Maritimes.
More to come on this. Meanwhile, the Atlantic continues to look as if a suppressed background state will halt tropical development risk for the next 7 to 10 days behind Ernesto. No additional storms are expected through next week.
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Stratton20
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They actually are incorrect about the background state being suppressed, it isnt, its really that the waves right now are coming off at a higher latitude off of africa, and they are running into dry, stable air from the SAL which is killing them off, the ITCZ has been push really far to the north, once that sinks back south during the last week of august, its game on
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Stratton20
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EPS signal is growing, that switch is coming sooner than later
One of the more prominent issues that the waves coming off of Africa are having is the overwhelming African Easterly Jet bleeding into the Western African Moonsoon Trough at this time. The air flow has been simply too fast coming off of the continent of Africa which is almost shearing the waves over West Africa as they enter the Atlantic. In addition, there is not an ideal divergent air flow where these waves emerge off of Africa in the Eastern Atlantic. I think long-range computer models are forecasting these conditions to become more favorable towards the last week of August - with the airflow slowing down and the monsoon trough becoming more ideal for tropical wave development over the Eastern Atlantic. This should lead to a significant uptick in activity over the MDR with one or two possible long-tracking storms at the end of August or the beginning of September. We shall see.
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tireman4
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Hurricane Ernesto being challenged by some dry air as it plots a course toward Bermuda
August 15, 2024 at 10:49 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Hurricane Ernesto prompts Hurricane Warnings for Bermuda as it tracks in that direction.
Look for somewhat prolonged wind, surf, and rainfall impacts in Bermuda beginning tonight into Friday.
Ernesto is large in size and will generate rough surf and dangerous rip currents far from the center along the U.S. East Coast heading into the weekend.
Impacts are possible in Atlantic Canada Sunday or Monday, particularly in Newfoundland as Ernesto comes north and accelerates out to sea.
Ernesto struggling a little this morning
Hurricane Ernesto is moving along, north around 14 mph this morning over the Atlantic. A look at Ernesto on satellite tells the story pretty well.
Ernesto is dealing with dry air as indicated by some of the gaps in colder cloud tops (red/orange) in the inner core of the storm.
It’s pretty clearly fending off some dry air. It’s also a bit of a larger storm in size, with tropical storm force winds already extending out 175 miles from the center. The combination of Ernesto’s size and some of that dry air wrapping in is keeping a lid on much intensity gain today. The current maximum sustained winds are around 85 mph.
Ernesto’s track forecast
Ernesto is about 570 miles south southwest of Bermuda. Ernesto is going to take a weird track of sorts over the next 3 days or so, off to the north northeast, then northeast, then perhaps bending back north a bit. This is all due to steering currents that will be pushing Ernesto around. As I noted yesterday, the first trough will try to grab Ernesto and force it off to the northeast toward Bermuda. But as Ernesto approaches Bermuda, it will slow down and begin to turn back north somewhat as that trough exits. This will lead to a very close approach with a direct hit on the island. Regardless, hurricane conditions are likely to impact Bermuda by late tomorrow or Saturday, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect there.
The upper level map and approximate location of Ernesto every 12 hours through Monday evening as forecast by the 51 member European ensemble mean.
Beyond Bermuda, Ernesto will likely resume a slow northward movement in between two troughs. The next one moving in from the Great Lakes will try to also “grab” Ernesto, but it will also be following the steering currents around high pressure between Bermuda and the Azores. Thus, we should see Ernesto resume a slightly faster north northeast or northeast motion. Whether this happens fast enough to avoid a collision with Newfoundland remains to be seen. This will probably pass east of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, however. Still, it’s likely that Atlantic Canada will see at least some impacts from Ernesto as it passes by, including gusty winds, rough seas, and perhaps some heavy rain.
Ernesto’s intensity and impacts
In terms of intensity, Ernesto should continue to slowly strengthen over the next day or two as it approaches Bermuda. Depending on how much it can whittle away the dry air, it may approach major hurricane intensity before passing close to or over Bermuda. It’s also worth noting that the slowing forward motion as it approaches Bermuda will likely prolong some of the wind, rain, and surge issues on the island. So even if this comes in a bit weaker than forecast, it may punch above its weight class given the slow movement and prolonged impacts. Bermuda is no stranger to hurricanes, but folks should take this one seriously.
Strong rip currents and rough surf will be likely this weekend on the East Coast of the U.S., likely leading to dangerous swimming conditions at times.
In addition, on the East Coast of the U.S. rip currents are going to become an issue heading into the weekend as Ernesto passes offshore, especially given the large wind field of Ernesto. Please follow all posted signs and flags at the beach this weekend. Rip currents are deadly, with nearly 30 deaths so far this year from them.
Ernesto should be out of the picture after next Monday or so, followed up by a period of calm Atlantic tropics. There may be some signs of life very late on model runs in the far eastern Atlantic, but we’ll see.
August 15, 2024 at 10:49 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Hurricane Ernesto prompts Hurricane Warnings for Bermuda as it tracks in that direction.
Look for somewhat prolonged wind, surf, and rainfall impacts in Bermuda beginning tonight into Friday.
Ernesto is large in size and will generate rough surf and dangerous rip currents far from the center along the U.S. East Coast heading into the weekend.
Impacts are possible in Atlantic Canada Sunday or Monday, particularly in Newfoundland as Ernesto comes north and accelerates out to sea.
Ernesto struggling a little this morning
Hurricane Ernesto is moving along, north around 14 mph this morning over the Atlantic. A look at Ernesto on satellite tells the story pretty well.
Ernesto is dealing with dry air as indicated by some of the gaps in colder cloud tops (red/orange) in the inner core of the storm.
It’s pretty clearly fending off some dry air. It’s also a bit of a larger storm in size, with tropical storm force winds already extending out 175 miles from the center. The combination of Ernesto’s size and some of that dry air wrapping in is keeping a lid on much intensity gain today. The current maximum sustained winds are around 85 mph.
Ernesto’s track forecast
Ernesto is about 570 miles south southwest of Bermuda. Ernesto is going to take a weird track of sorts over the next 3 days or so, off to the north northeast, then northeast, then perhaps bending back north a bit. This is all due to steering currents that will be pushing Ernesto around. As I noted yesterday, the first trough will try to grab Ernesto and force it off to the northeast toward Bermuda. But as Ernesto approaches Bermuda, it will slow down and begin to turn back north somewhat as that trough exits. This will lead to a very close approach with a direct hit on the island. Regardless, hurricane conditions are likely to impact Bermuda by late tomorrow or Saturday, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect there.
The upper level map and approximate location of Ernesto every 12 hours through Monday evening as forecast by the 51 member European ensemble mean.
Beyond Bermuda, Ernesto will likely resume a slow northward movement in between two troughs. The next one moving in from the Great Lakes will try to also “grab” Ernesto, but it will also be following the steering currents around high pressure between Bermuda and the Azores. Thus, we should see Ernesto resume a slightly faster north northeast or northeast motion. Whether this happens fast enough to avoid a collision with Newfoundland remains to be seen. This will probably pass east of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, however. Still, it’s likely that Atlantic Canada will see at least some impacts from Ernesto as it passes by, including gusty winds, rough seas, and perhaps some heavy rain.
Ernesto’s intensity and impacts
In terms of intensity, Ernesto should continue to slowly strengthen over the next day or two as it approaches Bermuda. Depending on how much it can whittle away the dry air, it may approach major hurricane intensity before passing close to or over Bermuda. It’s also worth noting that the slowing forward motion as it approaches Bermuda will likely prolong some of the wind, rain, and surge issues on the island. So even if this comes in a bit weaker than forecast, it may punch above its weight class given the slow movement and prolonged impacts. Bermuda is no stranger to hurricanes, but folks should take this one seriously.
Strong rip currents and rough surf will be likely this weekend on the East Coast of the U.S., likely leading to dangerous swimming conditions at times.
In addition, on the East Coast of the U.S. rip currents are going to become an issue heading into the weekend as Ernesto passes offshore, especially given the large wind field of Ernesto. Please follow all posted signs and flags at the beach this weekend. Rip currents are deadly, with nearly 30 deaths so far this year from them.
Ernesto should be out of the picture after next Monday or so, followed up by a period of calm Atlantic tropics. There may be some signs of life very late on model runs in the far eastern Atlantic, but we’ll see.
57 is already downplaying the season like he downplays everything in the weather world. Saying we’re close to peak season when we’re still in the first quarter is crazy. It’s not even bell ringing day yet, which is August 20th. Not to mention he was way wrong about Beryl. Y'all can listen to him all you want, but I’ve been done with that man for years now. I’ll go with Herzog 10 times outta 10 over him.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 I saw his comment lol, with the ridiculous amount of heat energy in the gulf, down playing the season is just completely foolish, i will never get why people do that
I’m done with him, as well. I’m also done with the Space City Weather duo, as well. The last thing they were truly great with was Harvey 7 long years ago.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 12:27 pm 57 is already downplaying the season like he downplays everything in the weather world. Saying we’re close to peak season when we’re still in the first quarter is crazy. It’s not even bell ringing day yet, which is August 20th. Not to mention he was way wrong about Beryl. Y'all can listen to him all you want, but I’ve been done with that man for years now. I’ll go with Herzog 10 times outta 10 over him.
I don’t understand the pedestals folks put these people on.
Herzog and members of this board sniffed out Beryl's northward swing.
The Death Ridge holds firm until late next week then...
The Death Ridge holds firm until late next week then...
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Stratton20
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lol i think the GFS took me literally when i said the gulf was open next week, it has a couple more systems coming to texas behind our cut off low lol
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Stratton20
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And the Euro nows shows some tropical mischief in the gulf late next week potentially, could get interesting
I’m keeping an eye on the western gulf after the 20th for the potential for homebrew activity. Not seeing a strong signal yet but it’s that time of year so it bears watch 
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Stratton20
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Don yup could get interesting, with the ridge finally breaking down again, that could leave a lingering weakness over texas again if something tries to get going in the gulf, wouldnt mind some tropical rains, but please no beryl 2.0 lol
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Stratton20
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The Euro, while no development on this run, does show our first upper level low creating a weakness over texas, for the 2nd disturbance/ tropical wave that it has, ends up coming into texas as well, something to watch if that weakness persists……
Still not much of a signal for anything in the Gulf on the ensembles. Fine by me. Just give me some rain and cooler temps.
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Stratton20
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That will probably be changing in the coming days
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tireman4
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Ernesto exiting, as the Atlantic tropics should settle down for a bit now
August 19, 2024 at 11:16 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Ernesto will exit out to sea tonight and tomorrow, brushing southern Newfoundland with some impacts on the way out.
The Atlantic looks quiet through early next week.
If we want to scope out trouble that isn’t showing up on models, we’ll watch a Gulf disturbance this weekend and early next week; unlikely to develop but will bring some welcome rain chances back to Texas.
Ernesto finds the exit ramp
After impacting Bermuda and sending a bunch of rough surf toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. and Canada, Hurricane Ernesto is on the way out the door today.
Hurricane Ernesto is accelerating off to the northeast, while flinging clouds and perhaps some modest impacts to southeastern Newfoundland.
Ernesto is now moving northeast at 28 mph and taking on that “look” of a storm in transition from tropical system to post-tropical low pressure. Winds are 90 mph with Ernesto, and the wind field remains large, with tropical storm force winds expanding out 220 miles from the center. As Ernesto makes its closest pass to Newfoundland tonight, wind, rain, and rough seas will likely impact the Avalon Peninsula.
Ernesto’s track will bring it close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight before it exits out to sea.
With Ernesto moving along quickly, conditions should deteriorate there quickly tonight, then improve quickly tomorrow. By tomorrow night, Ernesto should be full extratropical/post-tropical and racing east-northeast across the Atlantic. And that closes the book on the fifth storm of 2024.
A lull for a moment
The Atlantic basin will shut down post-Ernesto for a moment or two. Or three. Who knows. Tropical activity over the next 7 days is expected to be basically non-existent.
A plot of European ensemble tropical systems over the next 7 days shows virtually nothing after Ernesto.
How long this lull lasts is tough to say. We’ll dive more into the context of all this and how this season stacks up vs past seasons a little later this week (and key reasons to not write it off as a “bust” in mid-August). For now, I don’t see anything really of note out there over the next 7 to 10 days. I do believe conditions will shift more favorable for activity as the calendar flips to September. But that’s an average confidence feeling right now.
If we want to dig for trouble that could surprise us, we could maybe look in the Gulf this weekend or next week. It appears that a disturbance is going to swing in either off the Atlantic or from inland thunderstorms across the Southeast and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. From there it will follow its way around the periphery of a Central Plains ridge of high pressure across the Gulf toward Texas.
Mid-level disturbance may be worth watching as it swings across the Gulf this weekend or early next week. Not expected to develop, but it should bring increasing rain chances to Texas next week.
Again, we’re looking for surprise trouble here, which is to say that no model currently develops this at all. And that’s the most likely outcome. But, we’ll keep tabs on it just in case. Regardless, this will probably bring an increase in rain chances to Texas next week, which has gone fairly dry this month. Most rain will be welcome.
But aside from that, I think we’re on a pre-peak break in the Atlantic through early next week. We’ll take it.
August 19, 2024 at 11:16 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Ernesto will exit out to sea tonight and tomorrow, brushing southern Newfoundland with some impacts on the way out.
The Atlantic looks quiet through early next week.
If we want to scope out trouble that isn’t showing up on models, we’ll watch a Gulf disturbance this weekend and early next week; unlikely to develop but will bring some welcome rain chances back to Texas.
Ernesto finds the exit ramp
After impacting Bermuda and sending a bunch of rough surf toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. and Canada, Hurricane Ernesto is on the way out the door today.
Hurricane Ernesto is accelerating off to the northeast, while flinging clouds and perhaps some modest impacts to southeastern Newfoundland.
Ernesto is now moving northeast at 28 mph and taking on that “look” of a storm in transition from tropical system to post-tropical low pressure. Winds are 90 mph with Ernesto, and the wind field remains large, with tropical storm force winds expanding out 220 miles from the center. As Ernesto makes its closest pass to Newfoundland tonight, wind, rain, and rough seas will likely impact the Avalon Peninsula.
Ernesto’s track will bring it close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight before it exits out to sea.
With Ernesto moving along quickly, conditions should deteriorate there quickly tonight, then improve quickly tomorrow. By tomorrow night, Ernesto should be full extratropical/post-tropical and racing east-northeast across the Atlantic. And that closes the book on the fifth storm of 2024.
A lull for a moment
The Atlantic basin will shut down post-Ernesto for a moment or two. Or three. Who knows. Tropical activity over the next 7 days is expected to be basically non-existent.
A plot of European ensemble tropical systems over the next 7 days shows virtually nothing after Ernesto.
How long this lull lasts is tough to say. We’ll dive more into the context of all this and how this season stacks up vs past seasons a little later this week (and key reasons to not write it off as a “bust” in mid-August). For now, I don’t see anything really of note out there over the next 7 to 10 days. I do believe conditions will shift more favorable for activity as the calendar flips to September. But that’s an average confidence feeling right now.
If we want to dig for trouble that could surprise us, we could maybe look in the Gulf this weekend or next week. It appears that a disturbance is going to swing in either off the Atlantic or from inland thunderstorms across the Southeast and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. From there it will follow its way around the periphery of a Central Plains ridge of high pressure across the Gulf toward Texas.
Mid-level disturbance may be worth watching as it swings across the Gulf this weekend or early next week. Not expected to develop, but it should bring increasing rain chances to Texas next week.
Again, we’re looking for surprise trouble here, which is to say that no model currently develops this at all. And that’s the most likely outcome. But, we’ll keep tabs on it just in case. Regardless, this will probably bring an increase in rain chances to Texas next week, which has gone fairly dry this month. Most rain will be welcome.
But aside from that, I think we’re on a pre-peak break in the Atlantic through early next week. We’ll take it.
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