August 2024

[DoctorMu]

But, forhehellofit the GFS and Euro bring in a weak TX into Corpus about August 13.

[TexasBreeze]

I am guessing the next interesting time to watch will be around the 13th looking at models. Hope the 12z gfs doesn't happen...

[Stratton20]

Something like that, but after looking at that model run, its likely a false alarm, typical GFS biacy of trying to take off vorticity from south america and spin it up into a storm, nothing to worry about at the moment unless other models start seeing something as well

[Stormlover2020]

It’s August wouldn’t surprise me just have to keep watching and if u look at the vorticity actually coming from Atlantic

[Stormlover2020]

It’s August wouldn’t surprise me just have to keep watching and if u look at the vorticity actually coming from Atlantic

Not coming from South America

[Cromagnum]

GFS being completely whack as usual with the phantom system in two weeks. What happened to that model anyways? It used to be reliable but has been a joke for a while now.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum lol what? The GFS has been doing very well this season, its probably a biacy here with SA, but the GFS has done well so far this season, it especially did great at sniffing out beryl and seeing a stronger hurricane, it really hasnt been a joke this season,
every model has its biacy

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs actually has been better than euro this year surprisingly

[DoctorMu]

GFS being completely whack as usual with the phantom system in two weeks. What happened to that model anyways? It used to be reliable but has been a joke for a while now.

GFS does tend to double down their comedy.

Having said that, they picked up the northward bend of Beryl early.

The Euro has a weaker system farther should in Texas. The upper ridges in the models and ensembles just aren't holding steady like the typical summer Death Ridge. there is a disturbance in the ridge (force) beginning about August 8-10.

[tireman4]

602
FXUS64 KHGX 021854
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
154 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Dangerous heat will be the main topic on the short term and a Heat
Advisory will remain in effect through Saturday evening.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern for the rest
of today with highs likely to peak in the mid to upper 90s this
afternoon along with heat indices up to 110 deg F in some spots. The
lows tonight will stay in the upper 70s for much of the inland
areas, so a warm start to the day. It will get even hotter on
Saturday as highs rise into the upper 90s inland with some spots
possibly reaching 100 deg F. Heat indices will range between 108-112
deg F areawide. Make sure to make the proper adjustments or
preparations if you plan to work or spend time outdoors as these
temperatures can cause several heat impacts. Protect yourself and
your loved ones from the heat and sun, including pets. Drink plenty
of fluids, stay out of the direct sun if able, wear lightweight and
loose fitting clothing, and try to limit strenuous activities. If
it`s too hot for your hands, then it`s too hot for their paws. NEVER
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle.

Aside from the heat, there is a chance for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night
as a weak cold front stalls near or over the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods region. For now, the locations most likely to see some of this
activity are those near and east of I-45, but wouldn`t be surprised
is a storm or two fires up elsewhere.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Mid-upper level high pressure centered over the SW CONUS will break
down slightly over the course of the day Sunday. As this high
pressure is nudged westward, a positively tilted trough will deepen
into the eastern part of Texas. At the 500 mb level pockets of
energy are projected to move into SE Texas as high pressure breaks
down and an area of low pressure develops. These factors combined
with PWAT values of around 1.8-2.2" could yield isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly along the coastal
areas and south of I-10. Have not steered to far away from the PoPs
in the previous forecast. Still have around a 20-30% chance of
precipitation in these areas. Isolated showers may continue into
Monday along the coast where PWATs still remain around 1.8". These
chances will be more limited, however, as high pressure begins to
build back into SE Texas. Expect the subtropical ridge to keep
things rather toasty and dry (rain wise) through the rest of the
long-term forecast period. We return to our regularly scheduled
program of hot and humid conditions after Monday (yay...). Highs
will be in the 90s with lows around 80 degrees. Heat index values
(at this time) look to remain just below the criteria for a Heat
Advisory (around 100-107 degrees); however, any increase in
temperatures or humidity could increase heat indices as a result
which may necessitate a Heat Advisory later on. In any case,
continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

VFR conditions expected across SE TX, although some brief moments
of MVFR cigs/vis could occur early Sat morning due to patchy
fog (most likely for our typical sites: CXO, LBX, and SGR). Winds
will be light and VRB for much of the period as high pressure
moves across the region.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Light winds and low seas should prevail through the forecast
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
and Monday, especially nearshore and for the bays. However,
generally dry weather is expected over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 78 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 98 79 99 79 / 0 0 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 93 79 / 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Adams

[Pas_Bon]

GFS being completely whack as usual with the phantom system in two weeks. What happened to that model anyways? It used to be reliable but has been a joke for a while now.

The GFS is not at all whack. Yes, it does tend to have an over-formation bias, but it’s been pretty good. If any other models pick this up, my antennae will start raising.

[Pas_Bon]

LOL

I *just* hung up the garden hose after soaking all the plants/fruit trees at my house and now it’s pouring in League City.

[Cromagnum]

LOL

I *just* hung up the garden hose after soaking all the plants/fruit trees at my house and now it’s pouring in League City.

Just imagine if you had wash and waxed your car!

[Pas_Bon]

LOL

I *just* hung up the garden hose after soaking all the plants/fruit trees at my house and now it’s pouring in League City.

Just imagine if you had wash and waxed your car!

Haha. Did that happen to you?

[Stratton20]

GFS brings a front all the way down in se texas in about a week with some cooler air behind it

[Pas_Bon]

GFS brings a front all the way down in se texas in about a week with some cooler air behind it

Awesome. Hope it snows.

[DoctorMu]

Beryl, Part Deux? GFS head fake or pre-cog?

[Pas_Bon]

Beryl, Part Deux? GFS head fake or pre-cog?

I have concerns.
Beryl would be a mere appetizer compared to this if it were to pan out. There would be nothing to inhibit rapid intensification.

[jasons2k]

I picked up a quick .91” tonight. Intense lightning show.

[Cromagnum]

At friends house in Bayou Vista and it's a crazy thunder and lightning show right now.